CryptoQuant Quicktake

As in February, BTC came to test the $60,000 level again after reaching $82,000, representing a decline of more than 28% since May.
This move triggered a certain level of fear among investors, with the Fear & Greed Index falling to its lowest point, below 10.
Once again, it was the STHs who suffered the most from this correction and reacted most sharply.
This emotional response translated into Binance inflows among the highest seen since the last ATH. During the month of June, STH inflows on Binance exceeded 80,000 BTC over 7 days, representing approximately $5B in selling pressure.
This does not break the February record, when inflows had exceeded 100,000 BTC as BTC was also testing the $60,000 level.
For now, STHs remain highly sensitive to market fluctuations, every return of volatility puts them in situations that push them into emotionally-driven decisions.
These types of decisions are rarely good ones.
Written by Darkfost

Network data over the past 14 days suggests a notable structural shift in Bitcoin exchange flows. Binance recorded net outflows exceeding 5,200 BTC on a single day (June 15), and the 7-day average netflow for the exchange has turned deeply negative at approximately -887 BTC/day — a 538% swing from the 90-day baseline. Simultaneously, the USD value of coins aged 7 to 10 years moved sharply higher week-over-week, though it remains broadly consistent with the 6-month average of approximately $26M.
The persistent negative netflow from Binance may reflect a structural redistribution rather than simple market apathy. Coins leaving the world’s largest exchange on a sustained basis historically precede supply reduction in liquid markets. However, the reported 3,224% surge in mega-whale wallet inflows (wallets holding >10,000 BTC) warrants caution: the absolute figure rose from roughly 0.77 BTC to 25.5 BTC in 7-day average terms — a mathematically large percentage change on a very small baseline that could reflect a single isolated transaction.
The more durable signal here is the Binance netflow trend, not the mega-whale percentage. Daily data shows that 8 of the past 14 days recorded negative Binance netflows, with two episodes exceeding -1,500 BTC. The Exchange Whale Ratio has edged higher, suggesting that among the flows that are occurring, larger wallets account for a growing share — though the absolute change (+2.2% vs. 90-day baseline) remains modest.
The combination of sustained Binance outflows and modest increases in whale dominance may suggest conditions where liquid supply is gradually contracting. Whether this reflects accumulation or OTC-driven redistribution remains ambiguous from on-chain data alone. These observations are consistent with — but do not confirm — the early stages of a supply-side tightening dynamic that has historically preceded upward price pressure.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Without new whales (<155 days) getting happy, a bull rally stays a dream.
The new whales' average cost is 72.1K and since price is currently 64.2K, this fresh money is now underwater. Right below them three strong cost layers line up. Binance investor RP (average cost basis) sits at 58.7K, miners at 53.7K, and long-term holder whales at 47.3K. So price is drifting below the new whales who could panic, but safely above the patient money that bought its coins cheap.
As a result, until 72.1K is reclaimed the trend stays under new whale pressure, and the real critical support is the 58.7K to 53.4K band, because if it breaks the door could open toward the long-term holders' 47.4K cost.
Do you think the new whales can get back in the green over the rest of 2026?
Written by burakkesmeci

The $BTC supply in loss has reached an all-time high. This means that more than half of the current supply is in a loss state.
The $BTC supply in loss is at the same level as the bottom levels seen in 2019 and 2022. Due to the recent decline, investors have once again reached their maximum losses.
The number of retail investors remaining in the market has drastically decreased, as they have left the market by selling a significant amount.
Meanwhile, whales are absorbing all the selling volume from retail investors.
This indicator demonstrates a state of extreme fear in the market. The maximum loss zone instills maximum fear in investors.
However, after reaching this figure, the market has typically started a rally within a short period. Investors who have endured this situation will soon be able to see the start of a rally.
Written by CW8900

The Federal Reserve may be entering a new era.
At his first FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged but signaled a major shift in communication strategy by stepping back from forward guidance.
For years, markets were driven by expectations of future rate cuts. Bitcoin often reacted less to actual policy changes and more to what investors believed the Fed might do next.
Warsh may be changing that dynamic.
As forward guidance loses importance, investors can no longer rely solely on Fed messaging. Instead, they must focus on actual liquidity conditions and real capital flows.
This could create short-term challenges for Bitcoin. Greater uncertainty may increase market volatility, pressure risk assets, and contribute to weaker ETF flows.
However, XWIN believes the bigger story is structural.
Bitcoin may gradually transition from being a “rate-cut expectation asset” to a “liquidity asset” driven by real demand and capital allocation.
Key indicators include:
• Bitcoin ETF flows
• Coinbase Premium
• Stablecoin liquidity
• Apparent Demand
• Overall dollar liquidity
These metrics reflect actual money moving through the system.
If Bitcoin can attract capital through ETF demand, on-chain activity, and liquidity growth rather than Fed narratives, it would represent a major shift in market structure.
XWIN's view is straightforward:
2026 may not mark the end of the easing trade—it may mark the end of the forward-guidance trade.
The investors who succeed in the Warsh era may be those who focus less on Fed statements and more on where liquidity is actually flowing.
Written by XWIN Japan

Since Bitcoin’s local top on May 10, derivatives traders have remained remarkably optimistic.
Funding rates across exchanges have stayed predominantly positive, indicating that long positions continue to dominate market positioning despite Bitcoin’s persistent decline toward the $60K region.
Under normal circumstances, positive funding reflects bullish sentiment and expectations for higher prices.
In fact, the market recently registered its highest positive funding rate reading since September 2025, a period that preceded Bitcoin’s final push higher before the market peaked and entered a prolonged downtrend. Notably, this extreme bullish positioning emerged just days before BTC suffered another sharp sell-off in early June, highlighting how aggressively traders were betting on a recovery despite weakening price action.
However, funding alone only tells us who is positioned. To understand whether traders are adding risk or reducing it, we need to look at Open Interest.
This is where the picture becomes more interesting.
While traders continued paying to maintain long exposure, Binance Open Interest has fallen from roughly $10B to $7.1B, representing a $2.9B contraction (-29%) since the May peak. In other words, bullish positioning has remained intact, but the amount of capital backing that conviction has steadily declined.
This combination (positive funding rates alongside falling Open Interest) is typically associated with a market undergoing a deleveraging phase rather than building the foundation for a sustained uptrend. Longs remain the dominant side of the trade, but positions are being closed, liquidated, or de-risked faster than new leverage is entering the market.
Historically, this type of environment often precedes a period of volatility and price discovery, as the market works to flush out remaining weak hands before a more durable trend can emerge.
Written by MorenoDV_

Over the past 90 days, OCEAN has shown a broad slowdown across both market performance and on-chain activity. The token has been trading in a narrow range around $0.101–$0.103, with the current price sitting near its six-month low of $0.101.
Trading activity has weakened considerably as well. Daily volume has fallen to approximately $48,000, compared with a six-month average of about $112,000. On-chain usage reflects the same trend, with daily transaction counts dropping from an average of 333 transactions to roughly 196 in recent sessions.
Despite the overall lack of market interest, Binance exchange flows reveal an interesting pattern. Rather than consistent day-to-day withdrawals, OCEAN outflows have occurred in several noticeable batches, including withdrawals of 987 OCEAN on June 7, 1,328 OCEAN on June 15, and 975 OCEAN on June 19.
This behavior may indicate that a small group of holders is periodically moving tokens into self-custody according to their own schedules, rather than making short-term decisions based on daily price fluctuations.
Binance OCEAN reserves have shown only a modest decline over the last six months, falling from a peak of 4,214,400 OCEAN to approximately 4,180,711 OCEAN. This represents a decrease of just 0.8% in the amount of tokens held on the exchange.
However, the dollar value of these reserves has dropped by around 4.8%, suggesting that the decline in reserve value is largely the result of lower token prices rather than significant selling pressure or large-scale exchange withdrawals.
The combination of a price near multi-month lows, reduced trading activity, and weaker on-chain engagement points to a market currently lacking strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. Such conditions can persist for long periods, with the token continuing to move sideways until a new catalyst emerges.
A meaningful change in trend would likely require a sustained increase in trading vol
Written by CryptoOnchain

The ETF Flow Impact Score (EFIS) is designed to measure Bitcoin ETF demand through a normalized approach, comparing net ETF flows against total ETF AUM instead of relying only on absolute inflow and outflow numbers. This allows the model to capture the real impact of institutional ETF positioning across different market sizes.
According to the latest EFIS reading, Bitcoin is currently trading at $63.5K while the ETF flow-based model value stands near $87.7K. This places BTC significantly below the level implied by cumulative ETF flow structure, with price currently below the model’s -1 standard deviation zone around $70.4K but still above the deeper -2 standard deviation boundary near $53K.
The recent ETF flow environment has clearly weakened. After a period of strong institutional accumulation, the market experienced several large distribution sessions, including approximately 58K BTC of ETF-equivalent outflows on June 3 and another 48K BTC on June 5. Since then, ETF flows have remained slightly negative, with the 30-day normalized flow momentum currently at around -0.16% of total ETF AUM.
However, the key observation from EFIS is that the current BTC price decline has been larger than the deterioration in the long-term ETF flow structure. The market has moved away from the model value, showing that price has reacted strongly to recent ETF selling pressure while cumulative institutional positioning remains elevated.
The current zone between $53K and $70K becomes the critical area to monitor. Holding this range while ETF flows stabilize could indicate that the market is absorbing recent distribution. A continued expansion of negative ETF flow momentum, however, would increase the probability of further downside toward the lower EFIS deviation band.
EFIS does not predict price direction; it measures the relationship between institutional ETF demand and Bitcoin valuation.
Written by Crazzyblockk

- Data from CryptoQuant shows that the ETH Outflow metric on Binance has just recorded a notable spike in June 2026. Specifically, a large amount of $ETH was withdrawn from the exchange while the price was fluctuating around the 1.71K zone.
- The sudden surge in the amount of coins withdrawn from the exchange (Exchange Outflow) at a low price zone typically reflects a move to transfer assets to cold wallets or to participate in staking. This can help alleviate spot sell pressure on the exchange in the short term.
Written by Rei Researcher

• At this weekly close, the same market weakness was observed from two different angles.
• The On-Chain Side and the Price Side.
• On-chain data extracted from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

- Observing the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart on CryptoQuant, the indicator is currently touching the green threshold at around 0.1, corresponding to the $BTC price at $63.3K. Although it has cooled down significantly from the yellow/orange zones, the overall network is still maintaining an unrealized profit state (NUPL > 0).
- The blue zone represents the Capitulation phase – a period when the majority of the market is bearing heavy losses. Historical data shows that this ideal zone only appears at the harshest macro bottoms of $BTC bear markets (such as late 2022).
- The probability of this cycle plunging straight into the blue zone is VERY LOW. To push the NUPL into negative territory, the $BTC price must collapse through the Realized Price (the average cost basis of the entire network). This usually only occurs during an extreme macro shock or a Black Swan event.
- The current $BTC correction to the green zone represents a "reset" of leveraged positions and a shakeout of weak-hand speculative capital to consolidate a healthy trend, rather than the beginning of a new bear cycle.
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin Cycle Momentum has not moved above the neutral zone (0), so the bear market is still underway.
The indicator has reached the -30 point range — a historically deep zone for the formation of a cyclical bottom
Historically, this range (-30) has formed the main support levels for BTC
However, to confirm a trend reversal, the price must form a bullish pattern with the indicator breaking above the Neutral zone.
Written by G a a h

Based on the CSV data for June 20, 2026, BTC on-chain conditions show easing spot-side selling pressure and reduced derivatives overheating, but the market is not yet showing confirmed direction.
Exchange Netflow turned back to a net outflow at -303.67 BTC, with the 7-day total also negative at -1,232.65 BTC. This suggests short-term sell-ready supply on exchanges is decreasing.
Funding Rate fell sharply to 0.000337 from 0.003985, showing that long-side crowding has cooled. Open Interest rose slightly to about $21.24 billion, but remains lower than seven days ago, so leverage has not fully expanded again.
SSR was 10.46 on June 19, slightly higher than the previous day, but still low on a one-year basis. This suggests stablecoin liquidity remains supportive, though only as a supplementary signal.
Overall, the data leans neutral to mildly constructive, driven by lower exchange selling pressure and reduced leverage overheating. This view would weaken if netflows turn into sustained inflows while Funding Rate and Open Interest rise quickly together.
Written by CoinNiel

XWIN views the recent increase in Bitcoin network activity as a highly important signal. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets followed a familiar pattern:
Price rises → speculative capital enters → network usage increases.
Today, however, the order appears reversed:
Network usage increases → prices remain weak.
This is reminiscent of the early internet era. After the dot-com bubble burst, technology stocks collapsed, yet internet users and data traffic continued to grow. That growth eventually became the foundation for the next wave of expansion.
Of course, rising network activity does not automatically guarantee higher Bitcoin prices. CryptoQuant notes that much of the recent increase is driven by relatively small-value transactions rather than the large capital flows typically seen during major bull markets.
Nevertheless, the trend remains significant.
The current market continues to face several headwinds:
• Slowing ETF inflows
• Weakening corporate demand
• Higher-for-longer interest rates
• Cautious institutional positioning
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin network usage is expanding. This suggests that the price cycle and the adoption cycle may be beginning to diverge.
At XWIN, we believe investors should pay attention not only to where Bitcoin's price is moving, but also to how the network itself is being used.
If ETF inflows accelerate again, stablecoin liquidity improves, corporate Bitcoin purchases resume, and institutional demand returns, today's growth in network activity could become a critical foundation for the next market cycle.
Bear markets tend to focus attention on negative headlines. On-chain data, however, often reveals developments that are invisible through price action alone.
CryptoQuant's latest research serves as a reminder that Bitcoin should not be evaluated solely by its market price. Sometimes the most important growth occurs beneath the surface.
Written by XWIN Japan

• During the same weekly close, there was a double bearish signal.
• The On-Chain Side and the Price Side.
• Supply in Loss. Nov 16, 2025. BTC: $94K. On the weekly timeframe, SL closed above its last high from April 2025. Since this date, it has been in an uptrend, reflecting that sellers took control of the market.
• Price - SMA50. Nov 16, 2025. BTC: $94K. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin’s price closed below the SMA50. Despite this, it was still trading above its April low of $74K. After that, price entered a downtrend, reflecting that sellers took control of the market.
• On-chain data extracted from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

• During the same weekly close, there was a double bearish signal.
• SMA50 and Supply in Loss.
• The On-Chain Side and the Price Side.
• On-chain data extracted from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

Recently, while BTC's price has been declining, I noticed that the Exchange Supply Ratio has started rising again. This metric is considered highly important because it reflects the relative amount of BTC held on Binance and helps investors understand where large holders and institutional participants are positioning liquidity. Since Binance is the largest liquidity hub in the market, changes in supply on the exchange can often provide signals ahead of major price movements. For this reason, the fact that the Supply Ratio has remained elevated in recent weeks indicates that the amount of BTC available for trading on Binance has increased. While this metric alone does not directly imply selling pressure, it does suggest that investors are moving their coins onto exchanges. Looking at historical data, periods when the Supply Ratio reached similar levels were often followed by price corrections. Therefore, another wave of selling pressure may be awaiting investors.
The MVRV Ratio currently stands at 1.18. This level suggests that Bitcoin is not trading in historically overvalued territory. Considering that MVRV has typically reached the 2.5-4 range during major bull market peaks, the current level can still be regarded as relatively neutral. As a result, there is no indication of a significant market bubble at this stage.
The recent increase in the Stock to Flow Reversion metric suggests that Bitcoin is attempting to return to its model implied value. This indicates that downward pressure may begin to weaken over the medium term.
When evaluating all of these metrics together, the increase in exchange supply on Binance suggests that selling pressure and volatility risks remain present in the short term. However, the relatively low MVRV level indicates that the probability of a deeper decline remains limited. Overall, the chart currently presents a mildly bearish and sideways outlook. Therefor BTC may first establish a local bottom before continuing its upward trend.
Written by PelinayPA

• The dynamic among Bitcoin’s price, supply, demand, and holders.
• On-chain data extracted from CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

Bitcoin addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC still show a positive 1-year change in aggregate holdings, but that annual increase continues to shrink.
As of June 18, the 1-year change in total dolphin holdings stands at ~381K BTC, down from the rebound levels observed in March.
This builds on the March observation: the rebound did not evolve into renewed expansion. The metric has continued to decline from the elevated levels seen during the 2025 expansion phase, when it approached the 900K BTC region.
The metric remains above zero, meaning aggregate holdings in this address band are still higher than they were one year ago.
Notably, this remains different from previous major stress periods. Around the December 2018 and November 2022 lows, the 1-year change had already turned negative, reaching roughly -124K BTC and -113K BTC, respectively.
This does not mean the same path must repeat. It shows that the annual change in dolphin holdings has declined materially, while the current reading remains above zero.
Key takeaway: Dolphin accumulation momentum is fading, but the 1-year change remains positive — unlike the negative readings seen near prior major market lows.
Source: CryptoQuant
Written by Zizcrypto

- Looking at the $BTC Fund Market Premium chart, we just witnessed a steep drop of the Premium index into negative territory, coinciding with the price correction to the 63.1K zone.
- If the Premium is negative, it means that supply is overwhelming local buying demand. Fund investors are no longer willing to pay a premium over the Net Asset Value (NAV) to acquire a position.
- Currently, although the index has recovered slightly to -0.6, it remains in discount territory. The 30-day EMA is also trending downward.
- The market is lacking strong buying momentum from institutions/funds. Until the Fund Premium returns to the green (positive) zone and stabilizes, the sustainable upward momentum of $BTC will continue to face many challenges.
Written by Rei Researcher