Two targets down: 1.3747 and 1.3963, about a day after the call. Stop moves to entry - what's left of the trade is free now. Holding the rest for 1.4330.
⚪ $BTC 77,900 - boxed in 76,047-79,890 ⚪ $ETH 2,513 - boxed in 2,406-2,666 ⚪ $SOL 101.6 - boxed in 98.0-105.8
All three are sitting right in the middle of their 5-day ranges. Every wick outside got pulled straight back - BTC's last seven daily closes fit inside 3.3%.
237-239 has rejected TAO five times since Aug 26. The Sep 6 pump to 277 unwound all the way back under it. Today it tagged 237.8 and backed off again. Invalid on a daily close above 239.4.
11.45-11.58 capped LINK four times in late August, then held as support four times in September. On Sep 13 it finally broke - daily close 11.203. Today's bounce topped at 11.484, right back inside the old floor. Invalid on a daily close above 11.63.
Five daily highs have stopped at 2533-2567 since Aug 21. On Sep 11 it spiked to 2666 on $1.6B - about 2.5x its usual volume - and still closed back under, at 2516. Today's high is 2535. Back in the same zone. Invalid on a daily close above 2567.
0.704-0.721 has been touched seven times since June, as support and as resistance. The September run to 0.8447 started there - and has now fully retraced back to it. Sep 13-14 wicked below to 0.6926 and got bought straight back. Invalid on a daily close under 0.6926.
Fevral oyidan beri FIL faqat bir marta 1.04 dan yuqorida bir hafta yopdi — keyin esa ertasi hafta orqaga qaytdi. Hozir yana o‘sha shift/potolka chiqib, haqiqiy turtki bilan: kunlik hajm $38.8M, sentabr o‘rtachasidan qariyb 4 baravar, moliyalashtirish esa hanuz neytral. Ikki kun ichida 1.035 ga ikkita sinov. Kunlik yopilish 1.043 dan yuqoriga chiqmaguncha savdo yo‘q. Shundan keyin men eski shiftni yuqoridan qayta sinab ko‘rishni xohlayman.
Kirish: 1.005 - 1.025 (kunlik yopilish 1.043 dan yuqori bo‘lgandan keyin) Maqsadlar: 1.100 / 1.160 / 1.324 SL: 0.975
Manfiy funding qisqa pozitsiyalar (shorts) har 8 soatda long’lar (uzun pozitsiyalar)ga to‘laydi degani. -0.90% kuniga taxminan -2.7% ni tashkil qiladi — pozitsiyani ochiq ushlab turish uchun, narx esa ko‘tarilaveradi. LSK’da ham xuddi shunday: $3.2B hajmda +297%, funding -0.31%.
Ushbu uchta “squeeze”dan qaysi biri eng uzoq davom etadi?
10-sentabr rad etilishidan keyin 5.778 dan 4 tagacha ketma-ket kunlik yopilish: 4.804, 4.610, 4.351, 4.150. Har bir qaytish sotilmoqda — kunlik eng yuqorilar 4.893, keyin 4.640, keyin 4.404 da bo‘ldi. 4.126 dan pastda 3.682 gacha tayanch yo‘q. Ana o‘sha bo‘shliqning o‘zi butun g‘oya. Qaytishga sotish, pastga sotish emas.
Qisqa pozitsiya uchun kirish: 4.38 - 4.52 Maqsadlar: 4.13 / 3.85 / 3.68 Stop-loss (SL): 4.68
Bugungi tushish 1-sentabrdan beri bo‘lgan har bir kunlik yopilishni o‘chirib yubordi — bir sessiyada 11% ga pasaydi. Savdolar 1.4 mln $ va 1.0 mln $ lik to‘rt soatlik shamlar ko‘rinishida keldi, unga nisbatan undan oldingi soatlarda faqat 0.2-0.6 mln $ bo‘lgan. Narx aynan o‘zining eng past nuqtasida turibdi, shuning uchun bu yerga kirish uchun joy emas. 0.0771-0.0790 — sentabr yurishi boshlangan daraja. Aynan shu darajani kutishga arziydi.
12-sentabr 0.0471 dan 0.0629 gacha $14.8M da bo'lib, odatiy kunlik hajmidan o'n barobar. Shundan beri bo'lgan orqaga chekinish $1.6M da yuz bermoqda: sotuvchilar bosim o'tkazmayapti, xaridorlar esa chekinib turibdi. 0.0515 - 0.0524 9-sentabr kuni ham ushlab turgan va bugun yana.
Bugun yashil tomoni asosan eski tickerlardan iborat: LSK +381%, STEEM +66%, ARK +52% - 2016-2017 siklidagi nomlar. Taklif yillar davomida shu yerda bo‘lganiga ketadi, yangiroq hikoyalardagiga emas.
Ikki marta likvidatsiya kaskadi, har biri 1 soatdan: 🔴 12-sentabr, 13:00 UTC - 0.8358 → 0.5544 $38M hajmda 🔴 13-sentabr, 04:00 UTC - 0.6286 → 0.4503 $13M hajmda
Ochiq foiz $36M dan $19M gacha tushdi: kuchli leverage bo‘lgan pozitsiyalarning yarmi yo‘qoldi. Moliyalashtirish yana neytralga qaytdi, +0.005%, ya’ni siqilishning o‘zi tugadi.
$JUP Uchta kun ketma-ket “pastroq tepaliklar”: 0.2568, 0.2496, 0.2443. Hajm u bilan birga ketayapti — 6-sentabrdagi “pump”da $19 mln, kecha esa $3 mln. Lekin xaridorlar 0.2197-0.2234 oralig‘ini ikki marta ushlab turdi va aynan shu tayanch bu ishni qiziqtiradigan joy. O‘rtadagi narxni quvlamayapman. 0.2170 dan past bo‘lgan kunlik yopilishda bekor (invalid).
1.31 zonasi ikki marotaba ushlab turdi — 2-sentabr va 11-sentabr. 1.3150 dan bo‘lgan qaytish to‘rt soat ichida 1.4336 gacha yetdi. Ovoz/likvidlik quridi: $237 mln dan $66 mln gacha — sotuvchilar bosimni to‘xtatdi. Kunlik yopilish 1.31 dan past bo‘lsa, amal qilmaydi.
11-sentabr kuni xaridorlar 98.00 ni olib, o‘sha zahoti uni 105.80 ga ko‘tardi. Narx o‘sha bazaning tepasiga qaytdi — xuddi o‘sha zona, hali ham pastroq “low” yo‘q. G‘oya 4 soatlik yopilishda 98 dan past bo‘lsa, o‘lgan hisoblanadi.
🔴 $MARSCOIN −8.2% 🔴 $FF −6.8% 🔴 $MORPHO −6.7% Uch kun oldin FF va MARSCOIN ushbu taxtada ko‘tarilish uchun bo‘lgan. Ayni paytda LSK esa aynan shu 24 soatda +80% qildi. Pul bozorga ketmayapti, u faqat shularning ichidan chiqyapti.
Ushbu uchalasidan qaysi biri birinchi bo‘lib tiklanadi?