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0xfrigg
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0xfrigg

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mostly research. sometimes charts. always asking why price moved.
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Postlar
·
--
See translation
Bitcoin wasnt hacked. Liquid was. Around 3,996 $BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve on September 6 and naturally this started getting framed as some kind of Bitcoin security failure. But thats not what happened. According to SideSwap, the attacker had L-BTC that shouldnt have existed because of a bug in the Elements software. That L-BTC then went through what looked like a normal peg-out process. The federation accepted it as valid and released 3,996.01834922 real BTC on Bitcoin mainnet. Bitcoin itself worked normally. No PoW failure. No broken cryptography. No 21M supply issue. And according to the official statements the PAK and signing keys were not compromised either. That last part is what makes this much more interesting to me. Liquid protects its BTC reserve with an 11-of-15 multisig. Normally we think about multisig risk like this: “how many keys would someone need to steal?” But what if nobody steals the keys? What if all the honest signers are looking at the same bad state and the software tells them the withdrawal is valid? Then secure keys can still sign the wrong thing. So the question becomes not only: how many signatures protect the reserve? but also: what exactly are those signers validating before they sign? Thats also why wrapped BTC and native BTC shouldnt be treated as the same risk. Native BTC relies mainly on Bitcoin’s own security model. L-BTC adds more: Bitcoin + Liquid software PoW + federation trust your keys + peg logic reserve management + asset validation That doesnt automatically make L-BTC unsafe. It just means the trust model is wider. And I think thats the real lesson here. Every time we make BTC easier to move, wrap, bridge or use somewhere else, we gain functionality. But we also add another thing that can fail. Bitcoin worked. The validation layer around it didnt.
Bitcoin wasnt hacked. Liquid was.

Around 3,996 $BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve on September 6 and naturally this started getting framed as some kind of Bitcoin security failure.

But thats not what happened.

According to SideSwap, the attacker had L-BTC that shouldnt have existed because of a bug in the Elements software.

That L-BTC then went through what looked like a normal peg-out process.

The federation accepted it as valid and released 3,996.01834922 real BTC on Bitcoin mainnet.

Bitcoin itself worked normally.

No PoW failure.

No broken cryptography.

No 21M supply issue.

And according to the official statements the PAK and signing keys were not compromised either.

That last part is what makes this much more interesting to me.

Liquid protects its BTC reserve with an 11-of-15 multisig.

Normally we think about multisig risk like this:

“how many keys would someone need to steal?”

But what if nobody steals the keys?

What if all the honest signers are looking at the same bad state and the software tells them the withdrawal is valid?

Then secure keys can still sign the wrong thing.

So the question becomes not only:

how many signatures protect the reserve?

but also:

what exactly are those signers validating before they sign?

Thats also why wrapped BTC and native BTC shouldnt be treated as the same risk.

Native BTC relies mainly on Bitcoin’s own security model.

L-BTC adds more:

Bitcoin + Liquid software
PoW + federation trust
your keys + peg logic
reserve management + asset validation

That doesnt automatically make L-BTC unsafe.

It just means the trust model is wider.

And I think thats the real lesson here.

Every time we make BTC easier to move, wrap, bridge or use somewhere else, we gain functionality.

But we also add another thing that can fail.

Bitcoin worked.

The validation layer around it didnt.
0xfrigg
·
--
Bitcoin wasn’t hacked, Liquid was
On September 6 exactly 3,996.01834922 $BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve.
Naturally the first headlines made this sound like some kind of Bitcoin hack.
It wasnt.
Bitcoin L1 was not compromised.
According to SideSwap’s official statement, the attacker first created L-BTC on Liquid through a bug in the Elements software and then passed that L-BTC through what looked like a normal peg-out process.
The federation saw the peg-out as valid and paid out real BTC on Bitcoin mainnet.
https://x.com/liquid_btc/status/2096696272447218108
So someone didnt hack Bitcoin directly.
The software behind Bitcoin’s federated sidechain allowed invalid L-BTC to look like real L-BTC.
And because the federation believed those assets had been legitimately burned, it released real BTC from its reserve.
That difference is basically the whole story.
Bitcoin’s blocks, miners, consensus, cryptography and normal L1 wallets were not compromised.
What was affected was Liquid.
L-BTC, the peg infrastructure and the ability to move assets through the network were the actual problem.
What we know and what we still dont
What we know:
➛ Around 4,000 BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve
➛ “Bitcoin mainnet was hacked” is false
➛ SideSwap says its PAK key and infrastructure were not stolen
https://x.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674
➛ The issue came from a bug in Elements
➛ Liquid operations were stopped
What we still dont know:
➛ Whether all funds will be returned
➛ The exact total amount of unbacked L-BTC created
And I think keeping those two groups separate matters here.
There is already a lot of speculation around the exact bug. But until we get a proper technical post-mortem, some of those details are still only theories.
First, what is Liquid?
Lets make the setup simple first.
Bitcoin is extremely secure, but Bitcoin itself is not designed to do every financial thing people want to do with BTC.
Liquid is a separate network running alongside Bitcoin.
A sidechain.
Unlike Ethereum or other open validator networks though, Liquid is managed by a group of institutional participants called the Liquid Federation.
The basic user flow looks like this:
You send BTC into Liquid. That BTC gets locked in the federation’s Bitcoin mainnet reserve.You receive L-BTC on Liquid.You can use that L-BTC inside Liquid for faster transfers, confidential transactions or other products.When you want BTC back, the L-BTC is burned and the federation releases BTC from its reserve on Bitcoin mainnet.
Liquid protects that BTC reserve using an 11-of-15 multisig.
At least 11 of the 15 functionaries have to sign before BTC can leave the reserve.

Sounds pretty strong.
And for key security it is.
But this incident shows why key security alone is not enough.
You dont need to steal 11 keys if all 11 honest signers are being shown the same wrong information.
If the software tells everyone “this withdrawal is valid”, honest signatures can still approve a bad payment.
That is much more interesting to me than simply saying “multisig failed.”
So what actually happened?
1. A bug in Elements made invalid L-BTC look valid
Liquid runs on open-source software called Elements.
Elements adds things like confidential transactions, confidential assets and the federated two-way peg on top of Bitcoin-like infrastructure.
SideSwap’s statement is pretty clear on this part:
The L-BTC used in the peg-out had been created because of a bug in Elements software.
In other words the attacker had L-BTC that shouldnt have existed.
This wasnt a stolen-wallet-password situation.
It was a validation problem.
The network accepted something as valid that shouldnt have been valid.
The exact technical mechanism of the bug still has not been published in a full official post-mortem.
There are claims around things like rangeproof caching and confidential transaction components, but I wouldnt treat any of those as confirmed until Blockstream or Liquid publishes the technical breakdown.
2. The attacker sent 4,000 L-BTC into SideSwap’s peg-out
According to SideSwap:
September 6, 14:05 UTC
A customer sent 4,000 L-BTC to SideSwap’s peg-out service.
From the system’s perspective it looked like a normal request.
The L-BTC was burned.
The peg-out authorization looked valid.
PAK, or Peg-out Authorization Key, is basically another control that limits which Bitcoin addresses can receive peg-outs.
And this is another important point:
The PAK key was not stolen.
Liquid and SideSwap both said that the PAK and other signing keys were not compromised.
So again, the problem was not somebody stealing the keys and forcing the system to send BTC.
The system itself believed the withdrawal was legitimate.
3. Real BTC then left the federation reserve
At 14:28 UTC, the Liquid Federation paid exactly:
on Bitcoin mainnet.
You can verify the Bitcoin transaction here: https://mempool.space/tx/8db751a650ae2f12006b7e8c69a75e4df360e8afd6b9e05ae0b9fa6458a7b140
And the related Liquid peg-out here : https://blockstream.info/liquid/tx/ce4caece413cd9d444ce7ed9f54e5b328b3da5e4af301aff59a3571f76e988f2
So when people say “4,000 BTC” they are rounding.
The verifiable Bitcoin payment was 3,996.01834922 BTC, worth around $318–320M at the time.
This is real BTC that left the federation reserve.
That part isnt theoretical.
4. Liquid stopped
After the incident Liquid disabled bridge nodes and stopped new transactions.
Exchanges also started suspending L-BTC deposits and withdrawals.
So this wasnt only a reserve accounting problem.
If you were actually using Liquid, your ability to transfer, swap, peg in or peg out was affected too.
5. The attacker says they are whitehats
There is also this part.
The attacker left a message on Bitcoin:
“we are whitehats. contact us on chain.”
But saying you are a whitehat does not make you one.
At least not yet.
Until the funds are actually returned, the vulnerability is responsibly disclosed and the damage is resolved, I think the safest description is simply this:
The attacker claims to be a whitehat.
The funds have not been confirmed as returned.
So for now this is still an unresolved, very large security incident.
Why wasnt Bitcoin hacked?
Because from Bitcoin’s point of view nothing invalid happened.
The transaction had the required signatures.
Miners saw a valid Bitcoin transaction.
Bitcoin consensus accepted it.
No one broke Proof-of-Work.
No one broke Bitcoin cryptography.
No one changed the 21M supply cap.
Bitcoin had no way to know that the accounting inside Liquid was wrong.
Think of it like a bank.
Imagine a bank has a vault where withdrawals require multiple authorized signatures.
The bank’s internal system mistakenly tells those signers that a customer really owns $100M.
They approve the transfer.
The vault itself didnt fail.
The authorization process received bad information.
That is basically the distinction here.
So:
“Bitcoin was hacked” is wrong.
“Liquid’s federated peg suffered a major security failure” is much closer to what actually happened.
And this is where the story gets more interesting
For me the bigger lesson isnt really Liquid specifically.
Its what happens every time we take BTC and make it more usable somewhere else.
Native BTC in your own wallet mainly depends on Bitcoin’s own security assumptions.
L-BTC depends on more things.
Bitcoin consensus + Liquid software
Proof-of-Work + federation trust
Your keys + the peg mechanism
Liquid’s asset validation
And the federation managing the BTC reserve correctly.
That doesnt automatically mean L-BTC is unsafe.
It just means the risk model is wider.
Every bridge, sidechain, wrapped BTC product or custodian adds something useful.
And usually it also adds another thing that has to work correctly.
11-of-15 sounds safe. But what are the 11 actually signing?
This is probably my favorite part of the incident.
When people think about multisig security the question is usually:
How many keys would an attacker need to steal?
11-of-15 sounds strong because stealing 11 independent signing keys is obviously difficult.
But according to the current official explanation, that didnt happen here.
The signers were apparently presented with a state that looked valid.
So maybe the more important question is:
What are those 11 signers actually verifying?
And do all 11 depend on the same software logic?
Because if every signer independently has a secure key but every signer trusts the same broken validation logic, then key diversity does not necessarily give you validation diversity.
That is a very different type of risk.
And its one people talk about much less.
Even proof of reserves gets more complicated
Normally the obvious question for something like L-BTC is:
Does the amount of BTC sitting in the reserve match the amount of L-BTC in circulation?
Makes sense.
But confidential transaction systems make this harder because token amounts may not always be publicly visible in the same simple way.
And there is another issue.
If invalid L-BTC can be created and then burned in the same process that withdraws real BTC, a basic snapshot taken later may not tell you the whole historical story.
You could potentially look at the system after the event and miss how the mismatch happened.
I dont want to go further than the evidence here though.
This is not a final judgment on Liquid’s reserve design.
It is a reconciliation problem exposed by the incident.
We need the full technical report, reserve reconciliation and complete mint/burn accounting before making stronger claims.
Is this systemic for Bitcoin?
I dont think so.
Roughly 4,000 BTC is huge money.
But relative to Bitcoin itself it is not a systemic supply shock.
Bitcoin protocol security was not affected either.
So I wouldnt turn this into a “Bitcoin is broken” market story.
But for the infrastructure being built around Bitcoin?
Yes, this matters.
Especially as BTC gets wrapped, bridged, custodied and financialized across more systems.
There is also another distinction around other Liquid assets.
Liquid said assets like USDT, DePix and RWAs were not directly compromised by the security incident.
But “not directly compromised” does not mean “completely unaffected.”
If the network is stopped, you can still have transfer and liquidity problems even if the token itself was not hacked.
So who actually needs to care?
If you hold native BTC in your own wallet
This incident does not directly affect your protocol security.
Bitcoin L1 was not compromised.
If you hold L-BTC
You have operational exposure to Liquid’s peg, transfers and network restart.
Peg-outs, swaps and transfers being stopped obviously matter.
If you hold USDT or tokenized assets on Liquid
There is no confirmation that those assets themselves were hacked.
But if Liquid is not operating normally, access and liquidity can still become a problem.
If you use a product built on Liquid
Then I would care about exactly how much that product depends on Liquid, what collateral it uses and what the recovery/restart plan looks like.
My take
This was not a Bitcoin hack.
And I think describing it that way actually hides the more useful lesson.
A software bug in Elements allowed unbacked L-BTC to pass through what looked like a legitimate peg-out flow.
Liquid Federation then paid out 3,996 BTC on Bitcoin mainnet.
The keys apparently werent stolen.
The signatures worked.
Bitcoin worked.
The problem was that the thing being signed looked valid when it shouldnt have.
And that changes the security question quite a bit.
Its not only:
how many keys protect the reserve?
Its also:
what information are those keys trusting before they sign?
Bitcoin can be extremely secure while something built around Bitcoin still fails.
Every time we wrap BTC, bridge it, custody it or move it into another execution environment, we get more usability.
But we also add another trust assumption.
That is the real story here
Maqola
See translation
Bitcoin wasn’t hacked, Liquid wasOn September 6 exactly 3,996.01834922 $BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve. Naturally the first headlines made this sound like some kind of Bitcoin hack. It wasnt. Bitcoin L1 was not compromised. According to SideSwap’s official statement, the attacker first created L-BTC on Liquid through a bug in the Elements software and then passed that L-BTC through what looked like a normal peg-out process. The federation saw the peg-out as valid and paid out real BTC on Bitcoin mainnet. https://x.com/liquid_btc/status/2096696272447218108 So someone didnt hack Bitcoin directly. The software behind Bitcoin’s federated sidechain allowed invalid L-BTC to look like real L-BTC. And because the federation believed those assets had been legitimately burned, it released real BTC from its reserve. That difference is basically the whole story. Bitcoin’s blocks, miners, consensus, cryptography and normal L1 wallets were not compromised. What was affected was Liquid. L-BTC, the peg infrastructure and the ability to move assets through the network were the actual problem. What we know and what we still dont What we know: ➛ Around 4,000 BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve ➛ “Bitcoin mainnet was hacked” is false ➛ SideSwap says its PAK key and infrastructure were not stolen https://x.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674 ➛ The issue came from a bug in Elements ➛ Liquid operations were stopped What we still dont know: ➛ Whether all funds will be returned ➛ The exact total amount of unbacked L-BTC created And I think keeping those two groups separate matters here. There is already a lot of speculation around the exact bug. But until we get a proper technical post-mortem, some of those details are still only theories. First, what is Liquid? Lets make the setup simple first. Bitcoin is extremely secure, but Bitcoin itself is not designed to do every financial thing people want to do with BTC. Liquid is a separate network running alongside Bitcoin. A sidechain. Unlike Ethereum or other open validator networks though, Liquid is managed by a group of institutional participants called the Liquid Federation. The basic user flow looks like this: You send BTC into Liquid. That BTC gets locked in the federation’s Bitcoin mainnet reserve.You receive L-BTC on Liquid.You can use that L-BTC inside Liquid for faster transfers, confidential transactions or other products.When you want BTC back, the L-BTC is burned and the federation releases BTC from its reserve on Bitcoin mainnet. Liquid protects that BTC reserve using an 11-of-15 multisig. At least 11 of the 15 functionaries have to sign before BTC can leave the reserve. Sounds pretty strong. And for key security it is. But this incident shows why key security alone is not enough. You dont need to steal 11 keys if all 11 honest signers are being shown the same wrong information. If the software tells everyone “this withdrawal is valid”, honest signatures can still approve a bad payment. That is much more interesting to me than simply saying “multisig failed.” So what actually happened? 1. A bug in Elements made invalid L-BTC look valid Liquid runs on open-source software called Elements. Elements adds things like confidential transactions, confidential assets and the federated two-way peg on top of Bitcoin-like infrastructure. SideSwap’s statement is pretty clear on this part: The L-BTC used in the peg-out had been created because of a bug in Elements software. In other words the attacker had L-BTC that shouldnt have existed. This wasnt a stolen-wallet-password situation. It was a validation problem. The network accepted something as valid that shouldnt have been valid. The exact technical mechanism of the bug still has not been published in a full official post-mortem. There are claims around things like rangeproof caching and confidential transaction components, but I wouldnt treat any of those as confirmed until Blockstream or Liquid publishes the technical breakdown. 2. The attacker sent 4,000 L-BTC into SideSwap’s peg-out According to SideSwap: September 6, 14:05 UTC A customer sent 4,000 L-BTC to SideSwap’s peg-out service. From the system’s perspective it looked like a normal request. The L-BTC was burned. The peg-out authorization looked valid. PAK, or Peg-out Authorization Key, is basically another control that limits which Bitcoin addresses can receive peg-outs. And this is another important point: The PAK key was not stolen. Liquid and SideSwap both said that the PAK and other signing keys were not compromised. So again, the problem was not somebody stealing the keys and forcing the system to send BTC. The system itself believed the withdrawal was legitimate. 3. Real BTC then left the federation reserve At 14:28 UTC, the Liquid Federation paid exactly: on Bitcoin mainnet. You can verify the Bitcoin transaction here: https://mempool.space/tx/8db751a650ae2f12006b7e8c69a75e4df360e8afd6b9e05ae0b9fa6458a7b140 And the related Liquid peg-out here : https://blockstream.info/liquid/tx/ce4caece413cd9d444ce7ed9f54e5b328b3da5e4af301aff59a3571f76e988f2 So when people say “4,000 BTC” they are rounding. The verifiable Bitcoin payment was 3,996.01834922 BTC, worth around $318–320M at the time. This is real BTC that left the federation reserve. That part isnt theoretical. 4. Liquid stopped After the incident Liquid disabled bridge nodes and stopped new transactions. Exchanges also started suspending L-BTC deposits and withdrawals. So this wasnt only a reserve accounting problem. If you were actually using Liquid, your ability to transfer, swap, peg in or peg out was affected too. 5. The attacker says they are whitehats There is also this part. The attacker left a message on Bitcoin: “we are whitehats. contact us on chain.” But saying you are a whitehat does not make you one. At least not yet. Until the funds are actually returned, the vulnerability is responsibly disclosed and the damage is resolved, I think the safest description is simply this: The attacker claims to be a whitehat. The funds have not been confirmed as returned. So for now this is still an unresolved, very large security incident. Why wasnt Bitcoin hacked? Because from Bitcoin’s point of view nothing invalid happened. The transaction had the required signatures. Miners saw a valid Bitcoin transaction. Bitcoin consensus accepted it. No one broke Proof-of-Work. No one broke Bitcoin cryptography. No one changed the 21M supply cap. Bitcoin had no way to know that the accounting inside Liquid was wrong. Think of it like a bank. Imagine a bank has a vault where withdrawals require multiple authorized signatures. The bank’s internal system mistakenly tells those signers that a customer really owns $100M. They approve the transfer. The vault itself didnt fail. The authorization process received bad information. That is basically the distinction here. So: “Bitcoin was hacked” is wrong. “Liquid’s federated peg suffered a major security failure” is much closer to what actually happened. And this is where the story gets more interesting For me the bigger lesson isnt really Liquid specifically. Its what happens every time we take BTC and make it more usable somewhere else. Native BTC in your own wallet mainly depends on Bitcoin’s own security assumptions. L-BTC depends on more things. Bitcoin consensus + Liquid software Proof-of-Work + federation trust Your keys + the peg mechanism Liquid’s asset validation And the federation managing the BTC reserve correctly. That doesnt automatically mean L-BTC is unsafe. It just means the risk model is wider. Every bridge, sidechain, wrapped BTC product or custodian adds something useful. And usually it also adds another thing that has to work correctly. 11-of-15 sounds safe. But what are the 11 actually signing? This is probably my favorite part of the incident. When people think about multisig security the question is usually: How many keys would an attacker need to steal? 11-of-15 sounds strong because stealing 11 independent signing keys is obviously difficult. But according to the current official explanation, that didnt happen here. The signers were apparently presented with a state that looked valid. So maybe the more important question is: What are those 11 signers actually verifying? And do all 11 depend on the same software logic? Because if every signer independently has a secure key but every signer trusts the same broken validation logic, then key diversity does not necessarily give you validation diversity. That is a very different type of risk. And its one people talk about much less. Even proof of reserves gets more complicated Normally the obvious question for something like L-BTC is: Does the amount of BTC sitting in the reserve match the amount of L-BTC in circulation? Makes sense. But confidential transaction systems make this harder because token amounts may not always be publicly visible in the same simple way. And there is another issue. If invalid L-BTC can be created and then burned in the same process that withdraws real BTC, a basic snapshot taken later may not tell you the whole historical story. You could potentially look at the system after the event and miss how the mismatch happened. I dont want to go further than the evidence here though. This is not a final judgment on Liquid’s reserve design. It is a reconciliation problem exposed by the incident. We need the full technical report, reserve reconciliation and complete mint/burn accounting before making stronger claims. Is this systemic for Bitcoin? I dont think so. Roughly 4,000 BTC is huge money. But relative to Bitcoin itself it is not a systemic supply shock. Bitcoin protocol security was not affected either. So I wouldnt turn this into a “Bitcoin is broken” market story. But for the infrastructure being built around Bitcoin? Yes, this matters. Especially as BTC gets wrapped, bridged, custodied and financialized across more systems. There is also another distinction around other Liquid assets. Liquid said assets like USDT, DePix and RWAs were not directly compromised by the security incident. But “not directly compromised” does not mean “completely unaffected.” If the network is stopped, you can still have transfer and liquidity problems even if the token itself was not hacked. So who actually needs to care? If you hold native BTC in your own wallet This incident does not directly affect your protocol security. Bitcoin L1 was not compromised. If you hold L-BTC You have operational exposure to Liquid’s peg, transfers and network restart. Peg-outs, swaps and transfers being stopped obviously matter. If you hold USDT or tokenized assets on Liquid There is no confirmation that those assets themselves were hacked. But if Liquid is not operating normally, access and liquidity can still become a problem. If you use a product built on Liquid Then I would care about exactly how much that product depends on Liquid, what collateral it uses and what the recovery/restart plan looks like. My take This was not a Bitcoin hack. And I think describing it that way actually hides the more useful lesson. A software bug in Elements allowed unbacked L-BTC to pass through what looked like a legitimate peg-out flow. Liquid Federation then paid out 3,996 BTC on Bitcoin mainnet. The keys apparently werent stolen. The signatures worked. Bitcoin worked. The problem was that the thing being signed looked valid when it shouldnt have. And that changes the security question quite a bit. Its not only: how many keys protect the reserve? Its also: what information are those keys trusting before they sign? Bitcoin can be extremely secure while something built around Bitcoin still fails. Every time we wrap BTC, bridge it, custody it or move it into another execution environment, we get more usability. But we also add another trust assumption. That is the real story here

Bitcoin wasn’t hacked, Liquid was

On September 6 exactly 3,996.01834922 $BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve.
Naturally the first headlines made this sound like some kind of Bitcoin hack.
It wasnt.
Bitcoin L1 was not compromised.
According to SideSwap’s official statement, the attacker first created L-BTC on Liquid through a bug in the Elements software and then passed that L-BTC through what looked like a normal peg-out process.
The federation saw the peg-out as valid and paid out real BTC on Bitcoin mainnet.
https://x.com/liquid_btc/status/2096696272447218108
So someone didnt hack Bitcoin directly.
The software behind Bitcoin’s federated sidechain allowed invalid L-BTC to look like real L-BTC.
And because the federation believed those assets had been legitimately burned, it released real BTC from its reserve.
That difference is basically the whole story.
Bitcoin’s blocks, miners, consensus, cryptography and normal L1 wallets were not compromised.
What was affected was Liquid.
L-BTC, the peg infrastructure and the ability to move assets through the network were the actual problem.
What we know and what we still dont
What we know:
➛ Around 4,000 BTC left the Liquid Federation reserve
➛ “Bitcoin mainnet was hacked” is false
➛ SideSwap says its PAK key and infrastructure were not stolen
https://x.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674
➛ The issue came from a bug in Elements
➛ Liquid operations were stopped
What we still dont know:
➛ Whether all funds will be returned
➛ The exact total amount of unbacked L-BTC created
And I think keeping those two groups separate matters here.
There is already a lot of speculation around the exact bug. But until we get a proper technical post-mortem, some of those details are still only theories.
First, what is Liquid?
Lets make the setup simple first.
Bitcoin is extremely secure, but Bitcoin itself is not designed to do every financial thing people want to do with BTC.
Liquid is a separate network running alongside Bitcoin.
A sidechain.
Unlike Ethereum or other open validator networks though, Liquid is managed by a group of institutional participants called the Liquid Federation.
The basic user flow looks like this:
You send BTC into Liquid. That BTC gets locked in the federation’s Bitcoin mainnet reserve.You receive L-BTC on Liquid.You can use that L-BTC inside Liquid for faster transfers, confidential transactions or other products.When you want BTC back, the L-BTC is burned and the federation releases BTC from its reserve on Bitcoin mainnet.
Liquid protects that BTC reserve using an 11-of-15 multisig.
At least 11 of the 15 functionaries have to sign before BTC can leave the reserve.
Sounds pretty strong.
And for key security it is.
But this incident shows why key security alone is not enough.
You dont need to steal 11 keys if all 11 honest signers are being shown the same wrong information.
If the software tells everyone “this withdrawal is valid”, honest signatures can still approve a bad payment.
That is much more interesting to me than simply saying “multisig failed.”
So what actually happened?
1. A bug in Elements made invalid L-BTC look valid
Liquid runs on open-source software called Elements.
Elements adds things like confidential transactions, confidential assets and the federated two-way peg on top of Bitcoin-like infrastructure.
SideSwap’s statement is pretty clear on this part:
The L-BTC used in the peg-out had been created because of a bug in Elements software.
In other words the attacker had L-BTC that shouldnt have existed.
This wasnt a stolen-wallet-password situation.
It was a validation problem.
The network accepted something as valid that shouldnt have been valid.
The exact technical mechanism of the bug still has not been published in a full official post-mortem.
There are claims around things like rangeproof caching and confidential transaction components, but I wouldnt treat any of those as confirmed until Blockstream or Liquid publishes the technical breakdown.
2. The attacker sent 4,000 L-BTC into SideSwap’s peg-out
According to SideSwap:
September 6, 14:05 UTC
A customer sent 4,000 L-BTC to SideSwap’s peg-out service.
From the system’s perspective it looked like a normal request.
The L-BTC was burned.
The peg-out authorization looked valid.
PAK, or Peg-out Authorization Key, is basically another control that limits which Bitcoin addresses can receive peg-outs.
And this is another important point:
The PAK key was not stolen.
Liquid and SideSwap both said that the PAK and other signing keys were not compromised.
So again, the problem was not somebody stealing the keys and forcing the system to send BTC.
The system itself believed the withdrawal was legitimate.
3. Real BTC then left the federation reserve
At 14:28 UTC, the Liquid Federation paid exactly:
on Bitcoin mainnet.
You can verify the Bitcoin transaction here: https://mempool.space/tx/8db751a650ae2f12006b7e8c69a75e4df360e8afd6b9e05ae0b9fa6458a7b140
And the related Liquid peg-out here : https://blockstream.info/liquid/tx/ce4caece413cd9d444ce7ed9f54e5b328b3da5e4af301aff59a3571f76e988f2
So when people say “4,000 BTC” they are rounding.
The verifiable Bitcoin payment was 3,996.01834922 BTC, worth around $318–320M at the time.
This is real BTC that left the federation reserve.
That part isnt theoretical.
4. Liquid stopped
After the incident Liquid disabled bridge nodes and stopped new transactions.
Exchanges also started suspending L-BTC deposits and withdrawals.
So this wasnt only a reserve accounting problem.
If you were actually using Liquid, your ability to transfer, swap, peg in or peg out was affected too.
5. The attacker says they are whitehats
There is also this part.
The attacker left a message on Bitcoin:
“we are whitehats. contact us on chain.”
But saying you are a whitehat does not make you one.
At least not yet.
Until the funds are actually returned, the vulnerability is responsibly disclosed and the damage is resolved, I think the safest description is simply this:
The attacker claims to be a whitehat.
The funds have not been confirmed as returned.
So for now this is still an unresolved, very large security incident.
Why wasnt Bitcoin hacked?
Because from Bitcoin’s point of view nothing invalid happened.
The transaction had the required signatures.
Miners saw a valid Bitcoin transaction.
Bitcoin consensus accepted it.
No one broke Proof-of-Work.
No one broke Bitcoin cryptography.
No one changed the 21M supply cap.
Bitcoin had no way to know that the accounting inside Liquid was wrong.
Think of it like a bank.
Imagine a bank has a vault where withdrawals require multiple authorized signatures.
The bank’s internal system mistakenly tells those signers that a customer really owns $100M.
They approve the transfer.
The vault itself didnt fail.
The authorization process received bad information.
That is basically the distinction here.
So:
“Bitcoin was hacked” is wrong.
“Liquid’s federated peg suffered a major security failure” is much closer to what actually happened.
And this is where the story gets more interesting
For me the bigger lesson isnt really Liquid specifically.
Its what happens every time we take BTC and make it more usable somewhere else.
Native BTC in your own wallet mainly depends on Bitcoin’s own security assumptions.
L-BTC depends on more things.
Bitcoin consensus + Liquid software
Proof-of-Work + federation trust
Your keys + the peg mechanism
Liquid’s asset validation
And the federation managing the BTC reserve correctly.
That doesnt automatically mean L-BTC is unsafe.
It just means the risk model is wider.
Every bridge, sidechain, wrapped BTC product or custodian adds something useful.
And usually it also adds another thing that has to work correctly.
11-of-15 sounds safe. But what are the 11 actually signing?
This is probably my favorite part of the incident.
When people think about multisig security the question is usually:
How many keys would an attacker need to steal?
11-of-15 sounds strong because stealing 11 independent signing keys is obviously difficult.
But according to the current official explanation, that didnt happen here.
The signers were apparently presented with a state that looked valid.
So maybe the more important question is:
What are those 11 signers actually verifying?
And do all 11 depend on the same software logic?
Because if every signer independently has a secure key but every signer trusts the same broken validation logic, then key diversity does not necessarily give you validation diversity.
That is a very different type of risk.
And its one people talk about much less.
Even proof of reserves gets more complicated
Normally the obvious question for something like L-BTC is:
Does the amount of BTC sitting in the reserve match the amount of L-BTC in circulation?
Makes sense.
But confidential transaction systems make this harder because token amounts may not always be publicly visible in the same simple way.
And there is another issue.
If invalid L-BTC can be created and then burned in the same process that withdraws real BTC, a basic snapshot taken later may not tell you the whole historical story.
You could potentially look at the system after the event and miss how the mismatch happened.
I dont want to go further than the evidence here though.
This is not a final judgment on Liquid’s reserve design.
It is a reconciliation problem exposed by the incident.
We need the full technical report, reserve reconciliation and complete mint/burn accounting before making stronger claims.
Is this systemic for Bitcoin?
I dont think so.
Roughly 4,000 BTC is huge money.
But relative to Bitcoin itself it is not a systemic supply shock.
Bitcoin protocol security was not affected either.
So I wouldnt turn this into a “Bitcoin is broken” market story.
But for the infrastructure being built around Bitcoin?
Yes, this matters.
Especially as BTC gets wrapped, bridged, custodied and financialized across more systems.
There is also another distinction around other Liquid assets.
Liquid said assets like USDT, DePix and RWAs were not directly compromised by the security incident.
But “not directly compromised” does not mean “completely unaffected.”
If the network is stopped, you can still have transfer and liquidity problems even if the token itself was not hacked.
So who actually needs to care?
If you hold native BTC in your own wallet
This incident does not directly affect your protocol security.
Bitcoin L1 was not compromised.
If you hold L-BTC
You have operational exposure to Liquid’s peg, transfers and network restart.
Peg-outs, swaps and transfers being stopped obviously matter.
If you hold USDT or tokenized assets on Liquid
There is no confirmation that those assets themselves were hacked.
But if Liquid is not operating normally, access and liquidity can still become a problem.
If you use a product built on Liquid
Then I would care about exactly how much that product depends on Liquid, what collateral it uses and what the recovery/restart plan looks like.
My take
This was not a Bitcoin hack.
And I think describing it that way actually hides the more useful lesson.
A software bug in Elements allowed unbacked L-BTC to pass through what looked like a legitimate peg-out flow.
Liquid Federation then paid out 3,996 BTC on Bitcoin mainnet.
The keys apparently werent stolen.
The signatures worked.
Bitcoin worked.
The problem was that the thing being signed looked valid when it shouldnt have.
And that changes the security question quite a bit.
Its not only:
how many keys protect the reserve?
Its also:
what information are those keys trusting before they sign?
Bitcoin can be extremely secure while something built around Bitcoin still fails.
Every time we wrap BTC, bridge it, custody it or move it into another execution environment, we get more usability.
But we also add another trust assumption.
That is the real story here
Men asosan mana shu holatdaman: rally haqiqiy talab haqiqiy kredit yelkasi juda ko‘p yordam berdi altseason hali ham yo‘q hozircha men uchun manzara shunaqa
Men asosan mana shu holatdaman:

rally haqiqiy

talab haqiqiy

kredit yelkasi juda ko‘p yordam berdi

altseason hali ham yo‘q

hozircha men uchun manzara shunaqa
$ETH funding hali ham men biroz kuzatayotgan qismim $BTC da 0.0052 ga nisbatan 0.0070 atrofida ikkalasi ham kunlik maksimumlardan tushib ketgani uchun hali hech qanday keskin narsa yo‘q lekin ha, $ETH longlar hozir ancha gavjumroq
$ETH funding hali ham men biroz kuzatayotgan qismim

$BTC da 0.0052 ga nisbatan 0.0070 atrofida

ikkalasi ham kunlik maksimumlardan tushib ketgani uchun hali hech qanday keskin narsa yo‘q

lekin ha, $ETH longlar hozir ancha gavjumroq
Bugun sezgan yana bir narsa onchain spot hajmi ~60% ga oshdi perplar ~227% ga oshdi shunday qilib, spot ishtiroki ham qaytdi, lekin leverage qaytgandek agressiv darajada emas rostini aytsam, bu rallining qanday his qildirganini biroz tushuntiradi
Bugun sezgan yana bir narsa

onchain spot hajmi ~60% ga oshdi

perplar ~227% ga oshdi

shunday qilib, spot ishtiroki ham qaytdi, lekin leverage qaytgandek agressiv darajada emas

rostini aytsam, bu rallining qanday his qildirganini biroz tushuntiradi
Bugun bozorni ancha chuqurroq ko‘zdan kechirdim va rostini aytsam, bu harakat aniq faqat shortlar qirib tashlangan (nuked) holat emas edi $BTC ETFs kecha +$730 mln va $ETH +$141 mln qilgan uning ortida haqiqiy talab bor edi siqilish esa hamma narsani ancha tezroq harakatga keltirdi
Bugun bozorni ancha chuqurroq ko‘zdan kechirdim va rostini aytsam, bu harakat aniq faqat shortlar qirib tashlangan (nuked) holat emas edi

$BTC ETFs kecha +$730 mln va $ETH +$141 mln qilgan

uning ortida haqiqiy talab bor edi

siqilish esa hamma narsani ancha tezroq harakatga keltirdi
Maqola
Ralli haqiqiy, ammo bu hali ham altseason emasBTC va ETH dagi harakat ortida haqiqiy talab bor edi. AQSh spot ETFlariga kuchli sof oqimlar va savdo hajmining oshishi buni allaqachon qo‘llab-quvvatlayapti. Ammo harakat tezligi leverage sababli oshdi. Short pozitsiyalar ochgan treyderlar likvidatsiya qilingani sayin, ular qayta sotib olishga majbur bo‘ldi Shunga qaramay, altseason yo‘q. Pul BTC, ETH va boshqa yirik aktivlarda jamlanmoqda. Kengroq altcoinlar savati hali ham BTCdan ustun natija ko‘rsatayotgani yo‘q. Demak, bu nafaqat ETH haqidagi hikoya, nafaqat short squeeze va na “altcoin season boshlandi” degan holat ham emas.

Ralli haqiqiy, ammo bu hali ham altseason emas

BTC va ETH dagi harakat ortida haqiqiy talab bor edi. AQSh spot ETFlariga kuchli sof oqimlar va savdo hajmining oshishi buni allaqachon qo‘llab-quvvatlayapti.
Ammo harakat tezligi leverage sababli oshdi. Short pozitsiyalar ochgan treyderlar likvidatsiya qilingani sayin, ular qayta sotib olishga majbur bo‘ldi
Shunga qaramay, altseason yo‘q.
Pul BTC, ETH va boshqa yirik aktivlarda jamlanmoqda. Kengroq altcoinlar savati hali ham BTCdan ustun natija ko‘rsatayotgani yo‘q.
Demak, bu nafaqat ETH haqidagi hikoya, nafaqat short squeeze va na “altcoin season boshlandi” degan holat ham emas.
Hyperliquid juda ko‘p pul ishlayapti. Ammo bu kapital haqiqatan ham platformada qolayaptimi? Men javobini topmoqchi bo‘lgan savol shu edi. Hyperliquid Perps so‘nggi 7 kun ichida taxminan $16.89M komissiya va $13.25M protokol daromadini yaratdi. Kuchli natijalar. Ammo ayni 7 kunlik aylanuvchi davrda taxminan $1.31B platformaga bridge qilinib kiritildi, $1.46B esa tashqariga bridge qilindi. Sof bridge oqimi: taxminan -$154M. Endi bu “foydalanuvchilar Hyperliquid’dan voz kechmoqda” degani emas. Bridge oqimi platformaning to‘liq balans hisobotini anglatmaydi. U jami spot/perp garovi, ochiq pozitsiyalar, ichki transferlar, market maker operatsiyalari yoki har bir hamyon balansini ko‘rsatmaydi. Ammo aynan shu sabab men komissiya ma’lumotlari ko‘pincha noto‘g‘ri talqin qilinishini o‘ylayman. Platformaga doimiy ravishda yangi kapital kirib turishi shart emas, ko‘proq komissiya ishlab topishi uchun. O‘sha bir xil $100 qayta-qayta savdoga ishlatilishi mumkin. Shuning uchun: komissiyalar bizga faollikni ko‘rsatadi. Ular avtomatik ravishda kapital ushlab qolinishini ko‘rsatmaydi. Bu yerda HLP ham yana bir foydali qism. HLP TVL taxminan $188.12M. So‘nggi 7 kun ichida u taxminan +2.39% tiklandi. Ammo 30 kunlik kesimda u hanuz taxminan 14.47% pastda. Bu ham investorlar ishonchini yo‘qotmoqda degani emas. Lekin bu shuni ko‘rsatadiki, Hyperliquid market making’iga ajratilgan risk kapitali faqat komissiya raqamlariga qarab o‘ylagandek kuchli kengaymayapti. Shu sabab $HYPE uchun men faqat daromadni kuzatmasdim. Men quyidagilarni kuzatardim: komissiyalar + garov + OI + faol treyderlar + HLP kapitali + sof oqimlar Hozircha Hyperliquid’ning mahsulotdan foydalanilishi va daromadi kuchli ko‘rinmoqda. Kapitalning platformada saqlanib qolishi tomoni esa biroz aralash. Menimcha, muhim farq ham shu. Kriptoda hajm va komissiyalar odamlar savdo qilayotganini anglatadi. Sof kirimlar va yopishib qoladigan garov esa odamlar qolayotganini ko‘rsatadi.
Hyperliquid juda ko‘p pul ishlayapti. Ammo bu kapital haqiqatan ham platformada qolayaptimi?

Men javobini topmoqchi bo‘lgan savol shu edi.

Hyperliquid Perps so‘nggi 7 kun ichida taxminan $16.89M komissiya va $13.25M protokol daromadini yaratdi.

Kuchli natijalar.

Ammo ayni 7 kunlik aylanuvchi davrda taxminan $1.31B platformaga bridge qilinib kiritildi, $1.46B esa tashqariga bridge qilindi.

Sof bridge oqimi: taxminan -$154M.

Endi bu “foydalanuvchilar Hyperliquid’dan voz kechmoqda” degani emas.

Bridge oqimi platformaning to‘liq balans hisobotini anglatmaydi.

U jami spot/perp garovi, ochiq pozitsiyalar, ichki transferlar, market maker operatsiyalari yoki har bir hamyon balansini ko‘rsatmaydi.

Ammo aynan shu sabab men komissiya ma’lumotlari ko‘pincha noto‘g‘ri talqin qilinishini o‘ylayman.

Platformaga doimiy ravishda yangi kapital kirib turishi shart emas, ko‘proq komissiya ishlab topishi uchun.

O‘sha bir xil $100 qayta-qayta savdoga ishlatilishi mumkin.

Shuning uchun:

komissiyalar bizga faollikni ko‘rsatadi.

Ular avtomatik ravishda kapital ushlab qolinishini ko‘rsatmaydi.

Bu yerda HLP ham yana bir foydali qism.

HLP TVL taxminan $188.12M.

So‘nggi 7 kun ichida u taxminan +2.39% tiklandi.

Ammo 30 kunlik kesimda u hanuz taxminan 14.47% pastda.

Bu ham investorlar ishonchini yo‘qotmoqda degani emas.

Lekin bu shuni ko‘rsatadiki, Hyperliquid market making’iga ajratilgan risk kapitali faqat komissiya raqamlariga qarab o‘ylagandek kuchli kengaymayapti.

Shu sabab $HYPE uchun men faqat daromadni kuzatmasdim.

Men quyidagilarni kuzatardim:

komissiyalar + garov + OI + faol treyderlar + HLP kapitali + sof oqimlar

Hozircha Hyperliquid’ning mahsulotdan foydalanilishi va daromadi kuchli ko‘rinmoqda.

Kapitalning platformada saqlanib qolishi tomoni esa biroz aralash.

Menimcha, muhim farq ham shu.

Kriptoda hajm va komissiyalar odamlar savdo qilayotganini anglatadi.

Sof kirimlar va yopishib qoladigan garov esa odamlar qolayotganini ko‘rsatadi.
Qisman to‘g‘ri
Maqola
Hyperliquid komissiya bosmoqda, lekin kapital qolayaptimi?Hyperliquid’ning savdo dvigateli juda kuchli. Ammo shunchaki ko‘p komissiya ishlab chiqarish doimiy foydalanuvchilar va doimiy kapital yoki kafolatlangan o‘sishni anglatmaydi. Keling, hozir onchain ma’lumotlari nimani ko‘rsatayotganiga qaraymiz. 2026-yil 2-sentabr holatiga ko‘ra, biz tekshira oladigan ma’lumotlar buni ko‘rsatmoqda. ➛ Hyperliquid Perps so‘nggi 7 kunda $16.89M miqdorida komissiya va $13.25M miqdorida protokol daromadini ishlab chiqardi. ➛ Xuddi shu 7 kunlik aylanma oynada Hyperliquid’ga $1.31B bridj qilindi, $1.46B esa tashqariga chiqdi. Sof natija taxminan -$154.05M. Lekin bu Hyperliquid’dagi pul miqdori kamaymoqda degani emas. Chunki bridge oqimi faqat zanjirlar orasidagi ayrim harakatlarni o‘lchaydi. Bu platformadagi jami foydalanuvchi garovi, ochiq pozitsiyalar va hamyon qoldiqlarining to‘liq balans varaqasi emas.

Hyperliquid komissiya bosmoqda, lekin kapital qolayaptimi?

Hyperliquid’ning savdo dvigateli juda kuchli. Ammo shunchaki ko‘p komissiya ishlab chiqarish doimiy foydalanuvchilar va doimiy kapital yoki kafolatlangan o‘sishni anglatmaydi.
Keling, hozir onchain ma’lumotlari nimani ko‘rsatayotganiga qaraymiz.
2026-yil 2-sentabr holatiga ko‘ra, biz tekshira oladigan ma’lumotlar buni ko‘rsatmoqda.
➛ Hyperliquid Perps so‘nggi 7 kunda $16.89M miqdorida komissiya va $13.25M miqdorida protokol daromadini ishlab chiqardi.
➛ Xuddi shu 7 kunlik aylanma oynada Hyperliquid’ga $1.31B bridj qilindi, $1.46B esa tashqariga chiqdi. Sof natija taxminan -$154.05M.
Lekin bu Hyperliquid’dagi pul miqdori kamaymoqda degani emas. Chunki bridge oqimi faqat zanjirlar orasidagi ayrim harakatlarni o‘lchaydi. Bu platformadagi jami foydalanuvchi garovi, ochiq pozitsiyalar va hamyon qoldiqlarining to‘liq balans varaqasi emas.
Tasdiqlangan
Solana hamjamiyati SGP-0002 — “Double Disinflation”ni tasdiqladi. Asosan $SOL emissiya vaqt o‘tishi bilan tezroq sekinlashadi. Eski pasayish sur’ati: 15%/yil Yangi pasayish sur’ati: 30%/yil Yakuniy inflyatsiya maqsadi: baribir 1.5% 1-sentabr holatiga ko‘ra ovoz berish o‘tdi, ammo yangi 30% jadval hali onchain’da faollashmaganga o‘xshaydi. Solana RPC hali ham eski 15% pasayishni va taxminan 3.67% yillik inflyatsiyani ko‘rsatmoqda. Demak, qaror qabul qilindi. Texnik amalga oshirish esa hali kutilmoqda. Muhim qismi — bu aslida nimani anglatishi. Solana deflyatsion bo‘lib qolmaydi. Yangi $SOL baribir yaratiladi. Farqi shundaki, emissiya sur’ati har yili ancha tezroq kamayadi. Va taklif modeliga ko‘ra, bu eski jadvalga nisbatan 6 yil ichida taxminan 18.9 mln kamroq SOL chiqarilishini anglatadi. Nega bu muhim? Validatorlar va stakerlar yangi chiqarilgan SOLning katta qismini oladi. Ular uni qayta stake qilishi, ushlab turishi yoki xarajatlarni qoplash uchun sotishi mumkin. Agar emissiya tezroq pasaysa, emissiya ta’siridagi sotish bosimi ham vaqt o‘tishi bilan kamayishi mumkin. Shuning uchun egalari uchun sodda xulosa: ➛ kamroq suyultirish ➛ uzoq muddatda yanada tor taklif ➛ ehtimol emissiya sababli kamroq sotuv bosimi Lekin bu yerda murosali jihat bor. Kamroq emissiya staking mukofotlarining pasayishiga va kichik validatorlarga bosimning oshishiga ham olib kelishi mumkin. Ovoz berishning o‘zi ham juda yaqin natija bilan yakunlandi. Taxminan 67% qo‘llab-quvvatlash, talab qilingan 66.67% chegaradan zo‘rg‘a oshdi. Demak, Solana tokenomikasini yanada siqilgan yo‘nalishga olib bormoqda, ammo ekotizim bu qanchalik agressiv bo‘lishi kerakligi borasida hali ancha birlashmagan. Mening fikrim: agar tarmoqdan foydalanish, komissiya daromadi va validatorlar xilma-xilligi sog‘lom bo‘lib qolsa, bu SOL uchun tuzilmaviy jihatdan ijobiy. Ammo bu uzoq muddatli taklif o‘zgarishi. Darhol narxni ko‘taradigan omil emas. $SOL sekinroq chiqariladi. Haqiqiy voqea mana shu.
Solana hamjamiyati SGP-0002 — “Double Disinflation”ni tasdiqladi.

Asosan $SOL emissiya vaqt o‘tishi bilan tezroq sekinlashadi.

Eski pasayish sur’ati: 15%/yil
Yangi pasayish sur’ati: 30%/yil
Yakuniy inflyatsiya maqsadi: baribir 1.5%

1-sentabr holatiga ko‘ra ovoz berish o‘tdi, ammo yangi 30% jadval hali onchain’da faollashmaganga o‘xshaydi. Solana RPC hali ham eski 15% pasayishni va taxminan 3.67% yillik inflyatsiyani ko‘rsatmoqda.

Demak, qaror qabul qilindi.

Texnik amalga oshirish esa hali kutilmoqda.

Muhim qismi — bu aslida nimani anglatishi.

Solana deflyatsion bo‘lib qolmaydi.

Yangi $SOL baribir yaratiladi.

Farqi shundaki, emissiya sur’ati har yili ancha tezroq kamayadi.

Va taklif modeliga ko‘ra, bu eski jadvalga nisbatan 6 yil ichida taxminan 18.9 mln kamroq SOL chiqarilishini anglatadi.

Nega bu muhim?

Validatorlar va stakerlar yangi chiqarilgan SOLning katta qismini oladi.

Ular uni qayta stake qilishi, ushlab turishi yoki xarajatlarni qoplash uchun sotishi mumkin.

Agar emissiya tezroq pasaysa, emissiya ta’siridagi sotish bosimi ham vaqt o‘tishi bilan kamayishi mumkin.

Shuning uchun egalari uchun sodda xulosa:

➛ kamroq suyultirish
➛ uzoq muddatda yanada tor taklif
➛ ehtimol emissiya sababli kamroq sotuv bosimi

Lekin bu yerda murosali jihat bor.

Kamroq emissiya staking mukofotlarining pasayishiga va kichik validatorlarga bosimning oshishiga ham olib kelishi mumkin.

Ovoz berishning o‘zi ham juda yaqin natija bilan yakunlandi.

Taxminan 67% qo‘llab-quvvatlash, talab qilingan 66.67% chegaradan zo‘rg‘a oshdi.

Demak, Solana tokenomikasini yanada siqilgan yo‘nalishga olib bormoqda, ammo ekotizim bu qanchalik agressiv bo‘lishi kerakligi borasida hali ancha birlashmagan.

Mening fikrim:

agar tarmoqdan foydalanish, komissiya daromadi va validatorlar xilma-xilligi sog‘lom bo‘lib qolsa, bu SOL uchun tuzilmaviy jihatdan ijobiy.

Ammo bu uzoq muddatli taklif o‘zgarishi.

Darhol narxni ko‘taradigan omil emas.

$SOL sekinroq chiqariladi.

Haqiqiy voqea mana shu.
Tasdiqlangan
Maqola
Solana inflyatsiyasini tezroq kamaytirishga endi ovoz berdiSolana hamjamiyati SGP-0002 – “Double Disinflation” taklifini tasdiqladi. Buning bilan ular yangi chiqariladigan $SOL miqdorini tezroq sekinlashtirmoqchi. 2026-yil 1-sentyabr holatiga ko‘ra, ovoz berish o‘tdi, ammo yangi 30% jadvali hali tarmoqning jonli inflyatsiya parametrlariga tatbiq etilmaganga o‘xshaydi. Solana RPC hali ham eski 15% yillik kamayish parametrini va taxminan 3.67% yillik inflyatsiyani ko‘rsatmoqda. Ha, qaror qabul qilingan. Texnik amalga oshirish hali kutilyapti. Baribir, ta’sir baribir yillar davomida yuz beradi.

Solana inflyatsiyasini tezroq kamaytirishga endi ovoz berdi

Solana hamjamiyati SGP-0002 – “Double Disinflation” taklifini tasdiqladi.
Buning bilan ular yangi chiqariladigan $SOL miqdorini tezroq sekinlashtirmoqchi.
2026-yil 1-sentyabr holatiga ko‘ra, ovoz berish o‘tdi, ammo yangi 30% jadvali hali tarmoqning jonli inflyatsiya parametrlariga tatbiq etilmaganga o‘xshaydi. Solana RPC hali ham eski 15% yillik kamayish parametrini va taxminan 3.67% yillik inflyatsiyani ko‘rsatmoqda.
Ha, qaror qabul qilingan. Texnik amalga oshirish hali kutilyapti. Baribir, ta’sir baribir yillar davomida yuz beradi.
Atigi 7 kunda Base’ga $1.47 mlrd sof mablag‘ kirib keldi. ajoyib tomoni? biz hali ham bu pulning katta qismi qayerga ketganini aniq bilmaymiz. va deyarli shu vaqtda BSCda taxminan -$1.41 mlrd sof bridge chiqimi kuzatildi. Base: +$1.47 mlrd BSC: -$1.41 mlrd raqamlar g‘alati darajada yaqin. BSC’dan chiqqan pul Base’ga o‘tdimi? ehtimol. lekin hozircha buning isboti yo‘q. 7 kunlik oynada Base bridge faolligi shuni ko‘rsatadi: ➛ kirimlar: $1.92 mlrd ➛ chiqimlar: $450 mln ➛ sof: +$1.47 mlrd shunday ekan, tabiiy keyingi savol: bu pul qayerga ketdi? hozircha bilmaymiz. uning aynan Morpho’ga, Base defi’ga, memecoinlarga, levered savdoga yoki boshqa biror ilovaga ketganini tasdiqlovchi ma’lumot yo‘q. demak, bu hali investitsion signal emas. bu shunchaki kuzatishga arziydigan juda katta kapital harakati. va mana shu yerda BSC qismi qiziqarli bo‘ladi. Base +$1.47 mlrd ko‘rgan bo‘lsa, BSC -$1.41 mlrd ko‘rgan bo‘lsa ham, bu ayni kapital bevosita BSC’dan Base’ga o‘tdi degani emas. Buni isbotlash uchun bizga wallet oqimlari, bridge yo‘llari, vaqt oralig‘i va aktivlar oxir-oqibat qayerda joylashgani kerak bo‘lardi. lekin bu kuzatishga arziydigan juda aniq gipotezani yuzaga keltiradi. nega bu menga qiziq? asosan Base’ning o‘sish salohiyati sababli. katta kapital harakatlari ba’zan haqiqiy trend yaqqol ko‘rinishidan oldin paydo bo‘ladi. avval kapital harakatlanadi. keyin esa u nima maqsadda kelganini bilib olamiz. balki defi. balki lending. balki trading. balki yangi bir narsa. yoki balki uning bir qismi shunchaki o‘sha yerda qolib ketar va hech qanday muhim narsa sodir bo‘lmas. hali bilmaymiz. masala shunda. hozircha ayta oladigan yagona narsa shuki, Base qisqa vaqt ichida juda katta miqdorda sof kapitalni jalb qildi. keyin nima bo‘lishi bridge orqali kirgan mablag‘ning o‘zidan ham muhimroq. men bu $1.47 mlrd aslida Base ichida qayerda joylashishini kuzatishda davom etaman. hozircha bu hali yakunlanmagan signal.
Atigi 7 kunda Base’ga $1.47 mlrd sof mablag‘ kirib keldi.

ajoyib tomoni? biz hali ham bu pulning katta qismi qayerga ketganini aniq bilmaymiz. va deyarli shu vaqtda BSCda taxminan -$1.41 mlrd sof bridge chiqimi kuzatildi.

Base: +$1.47 mlrd
BSC: -$1.41 mlrd

raqamlar g‘alati darajada yaqin. BSC’dan chiqqan pul Base’ga o‘tdimi? ehtimol. lekin hozircha buning isboti yo‘q.

7 kunlik oynada Base bridge faolligi shuni ko‘rsatadi:

➛ kirimlar: $1.92 mlrd
➛ chiqimlar: $450 mln
➛ sof: +$1.47 mlrd

shunday ekan, tabiiy keyingi savol: bu pul qayerga ketdi?

hozircha bilmaymiz. uning aynan Morpho’ga, Base defi’ga, memecoinlarga, levered savdoga yoki boshqa biror ilovaga ketganini tasdiqlovchi ma’lumot yo‘q.

demak, bu hali investitsion signal emas. bu shunchaki kuzatishga arziydigan juda katta kapital harakati.

va mana shu yerda BSC qismi qiziqarli bo‘ladi.

Base +$1.47 mlrd ko‘rgan bo‘lsa, BSC -$1.41 mlrd ko‘rgan bo‘lsa ham, bu ayni kapital bevosita BSC’dan Base’ga o‘tdi degani emas. Buni isbotlash uchun bizga wallet oqimlari, bridge yo‘llari, vaqt oralig‘i va aktivlar oxir-oqibat qayerda joylashgani kerak bo‘lardi.

lekin bu kuzatishga arziydigan juda aniq gipotezani yuzaga keltiradi.

nega bu menga qiziq?

asosan Base’ning o‘sish salohiyati sababli. katta kapital harakatlari ba’zan haqiqiy trend yaqqol ko‘rinishidan oldin paydo bo‘ladi.

avval kapital harakatlanadi. keyin esa u nima maqsadda kelganini bilib olamiz.

balki defi. balki lending. balki trading. balki yangi bir narsa. yoki balki uning bir qismi shunchaki o‘sha yerda qolib ketar va hech qanday muhim narsa sodir bo‘lmas.

hali bilmaymiz. masala shunda.

hozircha ayta oladigan yagona narsa shuki, Base qisqa vaqt ichida juda katta miqdorda sof kapitalni jalb qildi.

keyin nima bo‘lishi bridge orqali kirgan mablag‘ning o‘zidan ham muhimroq.

men bu $1.47 mlrd aslida Base ichida qayerda joylashishini kuzatishda davom etaman. hozircha bu hali yakunlanmagan signal.
odamlar ko‘p adashtiradigan bir narsa: IBIT $BTC ko‘proq ushlab turishi har doim ham BlackRock bozorga kirib, yana $BTC sotib oldi degani emas ba’zan $BTC allaqachon kimningdir mulki bo‘lgan. faqat qadoqlovchi shakl o‘zgargan xolos nima uchun bu farq aslida muhimligi haqida yozdim ↓
odamlar ko‘p adashtiradigan bir narsa:

IBIT $BTC ko‘proq ushlab turishi har doim ham BlackRock bozorga kirib, yana $BTC sotib oldi degani emas

ba’zan $BTC allaqachon kimningdir mulki bo‘lgan. faqat qadoqlovchi shakl o‘zgargan xolos

nima uchun bu farq aslida muhimligi haqida yozdim ↓
0xfrigg
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IBIT o‘smoqda. Ammo BlackRock haqiqatan ham yangi Bitcoin sotib olyaptimi?
Blackrock bitcoin egasiga o‘sha bitcoinni avval sotib, uni dollarga aylantirmasdan turib, btc evaziga IBIT ETF aksiyalarini olish imkonini beradi.
Ushbu tranzaksiyada odam endi btc’ni to‘g‘ridan-to‘g‘ri hamyonida ushlab turmaydi. Buning o‘rniga ular aynan shu bitcoin ekspozitsiyasini ifodalashga mo‘ljallangan ommaviy savdoda bo‘ladigan IBIT aksiyalarini ushlab turadi.
Endi bu yerda juda muhim farq bor
Bu yangi pul bitcoin’ga kirganini yoki bozordan yangi $BTC sotib olinayotganini anglatmaydi.
Agar siz buni ajrata olsangiz, bu rivojlanishlarni ancha yaxshi tushunasiz.
Maqola
IBIT o‘smoqda. Ammo BlackRock haqiqatan ham yangi Bitcoin sotib olyaptimi?Blackrock bitcoin egasiga o‘sha bitcoinni avval sotib, uni dollarga aylantirmasdan turib, btc evaziga IBIT ETF aksiyalarini olish imkonini beradi. Ushbu tranzaksiyada odam endi btc’ni to‘g‘ridan-to‘g‘ri hamyonida ushlab turmaydi. Buning o‘rniga ular aynan shu bitcoin ekspozitsiyasini ifodalashga mo‘ljallangan ommaviy savdoda bo‘ladigan IBIT aksiyalarini ushlab turadi. Endi bu yerda juda muhim farq bor Bu yangi pul bitcoin’ga kirganini yoki bozordan yangi $BTC sotib olinayotganini anglatmaydi. Agar siz buni ajrata olsangiz, bu rivojlanishlarni ancha yaxshi tushunasiz.

IBIT o‘smoqda. Ammo BlackRock haqiqatan ham yangi Bitcoin sotib olyaptimi?

Blackrock bitcoin egasiga o‘sha bitcoinni avval sotib, uni dollarga aylantirmasdan turib, btc evaziga IBIT ETF aksiyalarini olish imkonini beradi.
Ushbu tranzaksiyada odam endi btc’ni to‘g‘ridan-to‘g‘ri hamyonida ushlab turmaydi. Buning o‘rniga ular aynan shu bitcoin ekspozitsiyasini ifodalashga mo‘ljallangan ommaviy savdoda bo‘ladigan IBIT aksiyalarini ushlab turadi.
Endi bu yerda juda muhim farq bor
Bu yangi pul bitcoin’ga kirganini yoki bozordan yangi $BTC sotib olinayotganini anglatmaydi.
Agar siz buni ajrata olsangiz, bu rivojlanishlarni ancha yaxshi tushunasiz.
BTC-0,91%
IBITETF-2,25%
$BTC hali ham menga bozor ko‘tariluvchan ko‘rinadi, lekin bu $65K dagidek bir xil ralliy emas Harakat haqiqiy spot/ETF talabi bilan boshlandi so‘ng Treasury sarlavhasi makro hikoyani o‘zgartirdi, shortlar siqib chiqarildi va $BTC tezlashdi endi biz boshqa bosqichdamiz kech kirgan longlar kirib bo‘ldi, funding oshdi va likvidatsiya riski shortlardan ➛ longlarga o‘tdi shuning uchun men mana bularni kuzatyapman: ➛ $78K ushlab turadi - tuzilma hali ham sog‘lom ko‘rinadi ➛ $81K qayta egallanadi - davom etish qiziqarli bo‘ladi ➛ $78K yo‘qotiladi - $76K men kuzatadigan keyingi zona tendensiya hali ham kuchli. Men shunchaki endi bu yerda leverajni kim ko‘tarib ketayotgani haqida ancha ko‘proq qayg‘uryapman
$BTC hali ham menga bozor ko‘tariluvchan ko‘rinadi, lekin bu $65K dagidek bir xil ralliy emas

Harakat haqiqiy spot/ETF talabi bilan boshlandi

so‘ng Treasury sarlavhasi makro hikoyani o‘zgartirdi, shortlar siqib chiqarildi va $BTC tezlashdi

endi biz boshqa bosqichdamiz

kech kirgan longlar kirib bo‘ldi, funding oshdi va likvidatsiya riski shortlardan ➛ longlarga o‘tdi

shuning uchun men mana bularni kuzatyapman:

➛ $78K ushlab turadi - tuzilma hali ham sog‘lom ko‘rinadi
➛ $81K qayta egallanadi - davom etish qiziqarli bo‘ladi
➛ $78K yo‘qotiladi - $76K men kuzatadigan keyingi zona

tendensiya hali ham kuchli.

Men shunchaki endi bu yerda leverajni kim ko‘tarib ketayotgani haqida ancha ko‘proq qayg‘uryapman
Maqola
Bitcoinning 25% rallisini aslida nima qo‘zg‘atdi?Avvaliga bu juda oddiy savol bo‘ladi, deb o‘ylagandim. Bitcoinning harakati asosan spot talab hisobiga bo‘ldimi yoki bu shunchaki yana bir katta short-squeeze edimi? Ma’lum bo‘lishicha, ikkalasi ham bo‘lgan. Faqat bir paytda emas. $BTC 17-avgustda taxminan 63 ming dollardan 25-avgustga kelib qariyb 79 ming dollargacha ko‘tarildi, bu esa qariyb 25% o‘sish demakdir. Ammo bu rallini yagona uzluksiz savdo sifatida ko‘rish, aslida ichkarida nimalar bo‘lganini e’tibordan chetda qoldiradi. Xaridor o‘zgardi. Pozitsiyalanish o‘zgardi. Va oxir-oqibat, likvidatsiya xavfini ko‘tarib yurgan tomon ham o‘zgardi. Meni qiziqtirgan qism ham shu edi.

Bitcoinning 25% rallisini aslida nima qo‘zg‘atdi?

Avvaliga bu juda oddiy savol bo‘ladi, deb o‘ylagandim.
Bitcoinning harakati asosan spot talab hisobiga bo‘ldimi yoki bu shunchaki yana bir katta short-squeeze edimi?
Ma’lum bo‘lishicha, ikkalasi ham bo‘lgan.
Faqat bir paytda emas.
$BTC 17-avgustda taxminan 63 ming dollardan 25-avgustga kelib qariyb 79 ming dollargacha ko‘tarildi, bu esa qariyb 25% o‘sish demakdir. Ammo bu rallini yagona uzluksiz savdo sifatida ko‘rish, aslida ichkarida nimalar bo‘lganini e’tibordan chetda qoldiradi.
Xaridor o‘zgardi.
Pozitsiyalanish o‘zgardi.
Va oxir-oqibat, likvidatsiya xavfini ko‘tarib yurgan tomon ham o‘zgardi.
Meni qiziqtirgan qism ham shu edi.
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