Market Information:
The U.S. added 336,000 jobs in September, almost double expectations; Bitcoin fell 1%;
CME FedWatch: After the release of non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates in November dropped slightly to 79.4%;
Cathie Wood: The likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved is rising;
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, higher than expected;
JPMorgan: Ethereum has become more centralized since the merger and Shanghai upgrade;
Market Review:
The overall market volatility in September was not large. The first wave of Bitcoin's short-term rebound was at 27478, close to the predicted range of 27070-27550. The price then fell back, but did not fall below the previous low of 24258, but rebounded at 25971. At the end of the month, there was another rebound, with the highest point reaching 28598. Overall, the market was mainly volatile in September.
Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin's, and it did not fall below the support level of 1467. It also experienced a short-term rebound in September, with the highest point near 1776, and did not touch the 200-day moving average at the daily level. Overall, the Ethereum market was also dominated by fluctuations in September.
Market analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC):
On the daily level, the market showed a volatile trend in September. The price fell from 31844 to 24258, but did not break further and did not hit the expected rebound. The key points to watch in October include the breakout of 28598 and the breakout of 24258. If the breakout of 28598 can be sustained, the price may rise to the 28950-30200 range. However, the possibility of a breakout is small, so be vigilant. If 28598 is the high point of this wave from 24258, then it may break below 24258 and head to 31360. In the short term, the short position target is between 26970-26530. After reaching the target, pay attention to the breakout of 25971, which will increase the probability of breaking below 24258.
Ethereum (ETH):
On the daily level, Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin, but the decline is larger and the rebound is weaker. In October, we need to pay attention to the breakthrough of 1776. If it is achieved, the price may rise to the 1815-1910 range. On the contrary, if 1776 is the high point of the rebound from 1467, then it may break below 1467, and the target is expected to be around 1255. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the break of 1561. After the break, the chance of breaking below 1467 increases.
In general, the market in October is concerned about Bitcoin's breakthrough of 28598 and the break of 24258, as well as Ethereum's breakthrough of 1776 and the break of 1467. In short-term trading, it is important to control risks and make your own decisions on profits and losses.
