那个男人林川

Crypto veteran, a lucky survivor in the game
Breaking down the charts daily, with the occasional sharp critique.
No crystal ball predictions here, only:
Structure analysis based on volume and price action;
No reliance on mystical fortune-telling, just observing multi-timeframe structure evolution and key support and resistance levels.

On the weekend, liquidity is thin. The market is mainly in a weak consolidation within the $61,000–59,000 range. In the morning it broke below the $60,000 psychological level, and the low briefly touched around $58,888. The current price has returned above $59,000. In the short term, it has entered a range-bound tug-of-war phase. Near-term price action is battling back and forth around key support and resistance, with no clear one-way trend.

Both the daily and weekly charts have printed consecutive bearish closes for multiple weeks; the highs have continued to move lower, forming a typical downtrend. A 5-day and 10-day moving-average death cross with the 20-day and 60-day moving averages has occurred; the moving averages are in a bearish arrangement. Price is trading below the MA200, and the medium-term bearish setup has not changed. Since the mid-June drop from the high, price has been pressured within a descending channel. The $60,000 level has turned from support into resistance. The key line separating bulls and bears is the $60,300–$61,000 zone. As long as daily closes cannot hold above this line, a fully bearish stance remains.

Intraday strategy: on further rebounds, continue to sell short. Bitcoin is pressured around the $60,000 level—sell with targets at $58,000; if it breaks, look for $57,000 and then $56,000. Ethereum can follow the same trading logic as Bitcoin. $BTC #比特币现货ETF周净流出17.9亿美元

Midnight Thoughts $BTC $ETH #预测市场交易量创历史新高

On Thursday morning, we advised shorting at the 61,000 level. However, after midday, the price action did not follow our expected path; instead, it continued to rebound. In the afternoon, the highest rebound reached around 61,800. After reaching 61,800, we again provided a bearish (short) outlook. We did not change the previous plan: around 61,700, we advised entering another short. During the evening, this wave of decline temporarily pushed below the 59,000 level. Whether shorting at 61,000 or 61,700, the bearish setups during the evening decline all delivered solid profit potential. Once the direction is set, don’t easily change it. You need to consider whether the market is reversing; if there is no reversal, staying坚定 (firm) in your approach will always bring good results.

After the market broke down again, it bottomed out and then rebounded. But the rebound is still just a rebound—it has not formed a reversal. Persistent downside needs to move through rebounds to repair. After the second rebound, we should still maintain the shorting mindset; don’t blindly try to guess the bottom. Just follow the trend.

On Thursday night, for BTC, you can take a short position directly relying on the 60,000 level. The target is around the 57,000 level. For Ethereum, you can also take shorts in parallel. $BTC $ETH #美国PCE通胀升至4.1%

Early session gave a heads-up to short around 61000, and this afternoon, the market continued to rebound, pushing higher. Currently, the short-term bounce has reached around 61800. This 800-point surge is a classic short squeeze triggered by stop-loss orders getting wiped out, not a trend reversal. The previous steep drop left a ton of short positions piled up, so the big players are likely to squeeze out the shorts before they drop again - textbook strategy. If we close above 62400, I'll quickly adjust my perspective; as of now, the high short logic remains intact.

The long-term bearish structure hasn't changed, with resistance now moving up to the strong pressure zone at 62000. You can enter directly at the current price of 61700, but don't chase long positions; avoid forcing entry at these highs. For those who entered around 61000, make sure to set your stop-loss above 62400, with an unchanged target of 59000. $BTC $ETH

$BTC Bitcoin, the market vibe yesterday and this morning was predominantly a steep drop. Market sentiment was completely triggered after the price broke below $61,000, leading to a panic sell-off that created a new recent low. Although there's a slight bounce now, the overall bear trend remains unchanged, with $61,000 now acting as short-term resistance, while $59,000 becomes the new battleground for bulls and bears.

On the larger timeframe, we're in a downtrend channel, with prices hovering near the lower boundary, showing weak fluctuations. In the short term, we should expect a bottoming process with occasional bounces, but the conditions for a trend reversal have not been established. If we break below $59,000, the downside opens up to the $57,000 and $56,000 zones. However, there is a demand for a short-term oversold bounce, targeting a test of resistance around $62,000–$63,000. If the bounce lacks volume or is blocked below the midline at $63,300, it’s highly likely we form a lower high before retracing again to test support at $60,000 and $59,060. Therefore, the intraday strategy remains focused on shorting the bounces.

Bitcoin, short around $61,000, targeting $59,000; Ethereum, short around $1,630, targeting $1,550. $ETH #比特币跌破200周均线

June 18 (Thursday) Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

Yesterday, we saw a wave of price action with an initial surge followed by a pullback. It bounced back from around 64500, but hit resistance at 66500 and pulled back down, even dipping to 63881 at one point. After that, it staged a slight rebound and is currently consolidating at the 64500 level.

From the current price action, after a brief dip, we haven’t seen a second drop. Instead, it's holding support along the lower channel, which maintains the upward trend. This pullback hasn’t broken the bullish channel structure, so today we’ll focus on the lower support level, which is also the key low at 63881. It's important to note that in an upward trend, if the pullback is too steep, it could limit the upward movement. A trend reversal relies on sustained and strong counter-price action. The absence of a second drop after yesterday's decline has eased some downward pressure. Even though we're seeing a continuation of the rebound, the likelihood of another drop has increased, particularly at the low point where we can clearly feel the buying support. "No pain, no gain"; today, traders might consider a light long position based on the low point, anticipating a new wave pattern rebound. Additionally, keep an eye on the breakout situation above the triangular resistance zone.

Bitcoin, go long at 64500, targeting 66000, with a breakout aim at 67000, and Ethereum should follow suit. #美联储四度维持利率不变 $BTC

On Tuesday (6/16), Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis

Overnight, the market surged to the 67255 level before pulling back again, currently hovering around 66300. On Monday, after breaking through 66000, the trend was bullish, initially spiking up, and then confirming support effectively around 66000 for a second wave up. During the day, I also added to my long position near 66300, which ultimately yielded some gains. It’s not a strong unilateral rhythm; the oscillating upward trend means that each pullback is actually a buying opportunity.

In terms of intraday movement, the spikes are accompanied by pullbacks. Today, we should keep a close eye on the 66000 level; if it holds, we still have expectations to challenge 68000. If it breaks down, we might see some consolidation towards 65000. No break, no rally. For morning operations, I’ll continue to look bullish, relying on the 66000 support.

Bitcoin, current price 66300, go long, targeting 68000.
Ethereum, current price 1790, go long, targeting 1850. $BTC #BTC突破6.6万美元

After a night pullback, we’re stacking more on the second leg. Now we’re back up, breaking the highs again. There's an easy 700-800 point range to scoop up. $BTC $ETH #BTC has broken through $66,000.

On Monday evening, bullish sentiment continued to brew, with the overall market showing strong one-sided continuity. During the day, the price firmly held above the 65000 level without any deep pullback, instead maintaining a high-level consolidation, trading time for space. In the evening session, the bulls struck again, with a strong bullish candlestick breaking through the 66000 resistance, confirming a new upward trend. In the afternoon, we clearly advised to 'follow the trend after breaking 66000', and this evening's rally successfully captured nearly 900 points of movement, highlighting the trend's benefits.

From the current technical structure, the short-term remains clearly under the bulls' control. Although there was a slight pullback after the price surged, the key point is that it did not break below the 66000 support converted from the previous high resistance. This high-level consolidation rather than a deep drop is a typical 'coiled spring' pattern. As long as the 66000 defense holds, we should continue to avoid trying to predict the top and maintain a bullish outlook. Key resistance levels to watch above are the round number at 67000 and the strong resistance zone at 68000.

Bitcoin (BTC): It is recommended to gradually build long positions based on the 66000-66400 support area, with a stop loss placed below 65500, aiming for 67000, and holding if it breaks to target 68000.
Ethereum (ETH): The movement is correlated with Bitcoin, continuing to maintain a dip-buying strategy, focusing on key resistance breakouts.
$BTC $ETH #美国伊朗终战协议

Monday morning opened strong and held steady, with all-day fluctuations and a rebound. During the midday session, we tested the 66000 resistance level again, aligning with the resistance zone we provided earlier. This level is a good spot to set up some short positions. Throughout the session, there has been a slight pullback around 66000 for shorting, but for a real downside to open up, we need to break below 65000 and convert the support at 64700; otherwise, the short-term structure still leans bullish.

Before the US session, keep an eye on:
Resistance: 66000; if the hourly chart breaks above this level, the pressure will shift to around 64500 (midline of the daily chart/former resistance zone);
Support: 65000—64700; as long as these levels hold, we maintain a bullish view of the high-level fluctuations.

In terms of trading: for now, we’re looking to play the overbought/oversold range between 64700–66000, waiting for either side to break before following the trend; don’t chase it before a breakout. $BTC $ETH #美国伊朗终战协议

The afternoon rebound momentum is looking weak, with multiple attempts to break through the 66000 resistance level hitting a wall. The short-term trades we set up earlier at this level have been successfully closed for profit. As the macro news is gradually being digested, the market focus is shifting back to technical structures. This Thursday's Fed rate decision will be a crucial guide.

From a technical perspective:

Upper resistance: The short-term strong resistance to watch is at 66000. If we see a breakout, we look towards around 66400 (the daily midline). If it can't hold effectively, I still recommend setting up shorts at the highs based on this resistance.

Lower support: Watch for levels around 65000 and 64700.

Trading strategy: As long as we don't see a significant breakdown, let's keep an eye on the range for consolidation. If we lose those key levels, we can follow the trend and jump in. $BTC #美国伊朗终战协议

June 15th (Monday) Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

On Monday morning, BTC briefly rallied to test the 65935 level before facing resistance and pulling back. Currently, it’s consolidating just above the 65000 psychological level. This rebound is driven by a technical oversold correction and a resurgence of funds during the session. Prices have consecutively reclaimed the critical levels of 64700 and 65000, and are now testing the 66000 resistance, breaking the previous weak downtrend in a small-scale range. This signals an interruption in the short-term downward momentum, shifting the market from a one-sided weakness to a narrow range oscillation mode. It’s important to note that typical rebound corrections often accompany quick pullbacks after a high, maintaining the trend, but the current price has stabilized above 65000 for a significant duration without a second deep dive, further confirming that the extremely weak state has been lifted.

Short-term Key Levels:
Support Level: 65000 (short-term bullish defense; if broken, look back to 64700/64200)
Resistance Level: 66000 (previous high and dense trading zone; an effective breakout could open up greater rebound potential)

On Monday morning, before effectively breaking 66000, the overall outlook remains bearish. We can look to short in the 66000-66400 range, targeting 64000. For Ethereum, short around the 1720-1740 range, targeting 1650.
$BTC $ETH #美国伊朗终战协议

June 11th (Thursday) Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

On Thursday, overnight Bitcoin bounced back but hit resistance around 62840, currently trading near 62000. This week, the market has largely been stagnant with no significant volatility, maintaining a range-bound trading pattern. For this week's strategy, we are still focused on key levels waiting for a breakout, so there are opportunities on both long and short sides in the short term. Yesterday, I suggested going short around 61600, and it finally dropped, yielding a thousand-point profit; however, after the decline, the market did not continue lower. In the short term, I'm bullish around the 60000 support level, going long at 61000 for a midnight bounce that ultimately realized nearly fifteen hundred points in profit.

From a technical standpoint, the current rebound is merely a corrective consolidation within a long-term downtrend. It’s more about building momentum for the next wave down rather than a reversal signal. The long-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment with heavy resistance overhead, showing no signs of a trend reversal. On the 4-hour chart, we are below the dense trading area from the previous decline. The price is oscillating around the 62000 level, and bullish momentum has clearly waned, losing its upward thrust, and is currently forming a short-term head. "What goes up must come down" is a short-term rule; when the small cycle indicators are severely overbought and can't extend new highs, a pullback is inevitable.

Bitcoin: Go short near 62000, targeting first 61000 and then 60000. Ethereum should continue to sync with Bitcoin's rhythm. $BTC $ETH #美国CPI升至4.2%创三年新高

$BTC 6 June 10 (Wednesday) Bitcoin Ethereum Market Analysis

From the market performance since the start of this week, Bitcoin's overall trend remains weak. On Monday, prices attempted a rebound amid fluctuations, briefly testing the 64000 resistance level but failed to break through effectively, subsequently falling back under pressure, hitting a daily low around 60755.

Considering last week's significant drop, the market at the beginning of this week is essentially in a technical correction phase after a major decline. Although there have been rebound actions, they represent a healthy corrective adjustment and have not altered the overall downward trend structure. This is why we've continuously emphasized maintaining a bearish outlook recently. Going with the flow often enables a more stable grasp of profit potential.

Back to the short-term trading scene, although the price dipped to 60755 overnight, there was a rebound; however, it could not hold above the 62000 area and quickly retreated again. This performance indicates that the current market has not entered an extremely weak one-sided downward mode but is in a corrective pattern while declining. Therefore, today we continue to adopt a weak range-bound perspective.

From a technical standpoint, key attention should be paid to the resistance around the intraday rebound high at 62253. If this level cannot be effectively broken, we expect a second downward move relying on this high point in the afternoon and European trading session. For support, we first focus on the psychological level of 60000; if this position is breached, the downward space may extend further to the 59000 area.

Trading Strategy Reference:
Bitcoin (BTC): It is suggested to enter a light short position around 61600 during a rebound, with a short-term target towards the 60000 mark, holding for a breakout down to 59000.
Ethereum (ETH): The rhythm is in sync with the market; just follow the bullish short strategy of the big coin.
$ETH #US stocks continue to decline, Nasdaq down over 3%

June 8 (Monday) Bitcoin Ethereum Market Analysis

After a one-sided drop last week, the lows extended to the 59080 line. The weekend movement didn't show any continuation but rather went through a choppy rebound, with the morning peak hitting around 64250. Currently, it's hovering around the 63000 mark.

In terms of the overall trend, we are still in a downtrend channel from the high of 82828, and the bearish setup remains unchanged. However, after hitting the low of 59080, there are clear signs of an oversold rebound. The current KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross at low levels and is diverging upwards, indicating that the daily downtrend momentum is weakening, and there's a strong technical rebound repair demand. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a V-shaped reversal after bottoming at 59080, with the price now above the 62000 line and making a push towards the 64000 resistance level. The short-term rebound has strength but hasn't yet entered the severely overbought zone, leaving room for further upward movement. However, the 64000-65000 range is a previous high-volume trading area, which may face some selling pressure. The short-term trend shows a stair-step upward movement, with consistently higher lows. The latest large bullish candle has broken through the recent consolidation platform, activating bullish sentiment in the short term. For short-term trading, the strategy is to go long, but be cautious of profit-taking after hitting resistance.

Bitcoin: Long in the 63000-62500 range, targeting 65000,
Ethereum: Long in the 1680-1650 range, targeting 1800.
$BTC $ETH #特朗普称伊朗袭击不影响美伊谈判

The trading market is never short of volatility; what it lacks is the clarity and composure to face that volatility. As we've always emphasized: even if the technicals are spot on, that's merely your ticket to entry. In this zero-sum game, the real pros don't compete on win rates, but rather on who can better control drawdowns and maintain rationality.

In the past week (June 1st - June 7th), Bitcoin and Ethereum showcased extreme one-sided movements, once again validating the strength of trends. June kicked off without the bullish reversal the market had hoped for, instead, it entered an accelerated downtrend. Throughout the week, the market faced resistance at the 78000 level, and the bullish momentum completely fizzled out. We maintain one viewpoint: any bounce is an opportunity to short.

From the key resistance at 74000 at the start of the week, to the 67000 mid-week defense, and finally to the psychological barrier at 60000 over the weekend, the market hardly gave bulls any breathing room. Bitcoin consecutively broke through significant round numbers, ultimately crashing through 60000, hitting a low of 59080. Ethereum followed suit, starting its drop from the 2030 level, perfectly syncing with Bitcoin's rhythm.

In this week of extreme market conditions, our trading logic was exceptionally clear: we completely avoided long positions and firmly held onto shorts.
From Monday to Wednesday: Prices oscillated downwards in the 74000-70600 range; we clearly pointed out this was a "key node for the long-short transition," and shorts placed in this range successfully captured profits for the first half of the week.
On Thursday: After breaking the 70000 round number, market panic spread, and we once again suggested shorting at the 67000 level, precisely catching the accelerated drop.
On Friday: While there was a slight rebound to 63300, under the premise of a downtrend, this was merely a correction in the downward sequence, and we stuck to our bearish outlook until the target of 60000 was breached.

The results are the best litmus test. This week, Bitcoin achieved a drop of 10,000 points, while Ethereum raked in 500 points of profit. All take-profit targets, whether at 74000, 68000, or the eventual 60000, were all met as expected.

Looking back on this week, there were no complex theories, nor any mystical indicators. The so-called precise analysis was merely supportive; what truly empowered us to hold positions and decisively enter shorts during rebounds was our respect for the trend and strict adherence to capital management. $BTC $ETH #纳指跌4.18%创逾一年最大单日跌幅

June 5th (Friday) Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

Yesterday, after a drop to the 61344 level, we saw a bounce back, peaking at around 64739. However, the market then entered a consolidation phase. During this time, after rebounding above 63000, short positions were indicated, and ultimately, we saw a pullback to around 62000, allowing for a profitable exit. Although the bounce was somewhat significant, it doesn’t alter the overall trend, which remains light and in line with the flow.

Currently, in this market movement, we see a series of lower highs and higher lows in the short term, as we are caught in a triangle consolidation pattern. After this sideways transition, we’ll need to watch for a directional breakout. If we head upwards, keep an eye on the resistance around 65000, which is the key pressure point right now. If we can’t stabilize and break through that, this rebound will still be seen as a correction in the bearish trend, and any intraday rebound approaching 65000 should be viewed as a chance to short again. Conversely, if it moves downward, just follow the trend.

Bitcoin, current price around 63300, you can go short here with a target set on 60000, while Ethereum moves in sync with Bitcoin's rhythm. $ETH $BTC #加密24h清算17.2亿美元

$BTC To be honest, I've been watching this whole market wave closely since the end of May. The phrase "short the trend" has rolled off my tongue more than ten times, and those who get it are already raking it in. I’m not a fan of those flashy indicators, nor do I want to get into any esoteric theories with you. My trading logic is straightforward: look for resistance to short during consolidation, jump in directly when there's a breakout, and continue to short based on resistance during a rebound. Throughout this journey, whether it was the precise entry at 78000 or the acceleration at the breakout of 70000, wasn’t every moment a testament to the words "trend, resistance, breakout" being etched into the charts?
Watching everyone get anxious daily, unsure whether to catch the bottom during consolidation or freaking out about cutting losses at the floor during a breakout, honestly, it’s quite helpless for me. My trading insights are simple: anticipate ahead of time, then execute quietly. This isn’t just hindsight; when you understand the big cycle's signals, the rest is just sitting at your computer, waiting for the market to pay you. Remember this: it's not that the market is tough, it's that you haven't found the right "tailwind" yet. When the wind blows, we ride the momentum down; when it stops, we switch tactics. This drop of ten thousand points, those who kept pace, we’ll see you in the comments. For those who missed out, don’t be envious, I’ll still be here for the next wave. $ETH #美国通胀持续联储鹰派美元走强

The trend is here, have you caught it? $BTC $ETH #美国通胀持续联储鹰派美元走强