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Core PCE inflation takes center stage Wednesday, with traders watching for signs of renewed price pressure and clues on whether the Fed could hike again in October.

US Core PCE expectations are for a 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) print.

This will be the last Core PCE print before the FOMC’s monetary policy meeting on October 28, where traders are pricing in 70% odds that the central bank will raise interest rates

The technical outlook for the US Dollar Index
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Economists broadly expect core PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, leaving the annual rate around 3.3% to 3.4%. Headline PCE is expected to rise roughly 0.4% to 0.5% on the month.

That makes 0.3% the key hurdle.

A 0.4% core reading would be difficult for the Fed to dismiss, particularly after its September rate hike, and could strengthen the case for another move at the October 27-28 meeting. A 0.2% print or lower would point in the opposite direction, giving policymakers more reason to wait and assess incoming data.

Consumer demand will be another important part of the release. Personal income is expected to rise around 0.5%, while spending forecasts are clustered around 0.8% to 0.9%. Another strong spending print would suggest households remain resilient despite higher rates, potentially making the Fed less comfortable assuming inflation will cool on its own.
The policy backdrop is straightforward. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75% to 4.00%, while the latest dot plot showed the median policymaker expecting one additional quarter-point hike before year-end.
That puts the focus on timing. A hot inflation print, upward revisions and strong spending would favor the October debate moving in a more hawkish direction. An in-line report would likely keep October and December both in play.
Wednesday’s report is also the final PCE release before the October meeting, raising the stakes for Treasury yields, the US dollar and broader risk sentiment.
US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Weekly Chart

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