As Bitcoin broke the key $59K support level, BTCUSDT perpetual futures longs liquidated around $120 million yesterday. While this is not a small amount, it is relatively small compared to the amount liquidated at the previous key support level of $59K, and it is hard to see a "capitulation" in the futures market just yet.

Additionally, the Funding Ratio indicator has been showing occasional negative funding ratios on an hourly basis, but the values are not dramatic enough to suggest dramatic shorting.

For a bottom to be created, we always need to see a large amount of liquidation in the futures market and a rush to short positions, but given the relatively small amount of long position liquidation and the lack of dramatic negative funding ratios, we believe that a 'capitulation' has not yet occurred in the futures market and that further downside is likely.

However, there is no need to be too negative about the market, and on-chain cycle metrics like MVRV indicate that there is upside in the cycle. In conclusion, a futures market capitulation signal would be a good signal to buy Bitcoin on the cheap.

Written by MAC_D

The typical Bitcoin cycle is characterized by the following stages:

End of Bull Run (Finale) -> Start of Bear Market -> Bottom -> Recovery Market -> Correction during Recovery -> Start of Bull Market

This cycle tends to follow a consistent pattern.

In this cycle, the prominent FOMO groups are those buying at the [End of Bull Run (Finale)] and during the [Recovery Market]. These groups often enter the market late, usually after witnessing significant price rises.

When categorized by UTXO AGE, these groups currently correspond to the 2-3 years and 1-3 months ranges.

Before the onset of a major bull market, the average acquisition price (Realized Price) of the 2-3 years and 1-3 months groups undergoes a 'smoothing process' involving repeated dead crosses and golden crosses.

Essentially, Bitcoin's price tends to stabilize near the price levels of these two groups, undergoing a 'reaccumulation period' before starting to rise again. This phase is referred to as 'Correction during Recovery.'

This period is commonly known as the time when the "fools' coins" are bought up by the smarter investors. Savvy investors, having previously sold to the FOMO group, buy back from them at lower prices.

Written by CoinLupin

The typical Bitcoin cycle is characterized by the following stages:

End of Bull Run (Finale) -> Start of Bear Market -> Bottom -> Recovery Market -> Correction during Recovery -> Start of Bull Market

This cycle tends to follow a consistent pattern.

In this cycle, the prominent FOMO groups are those buying at the [End of Bull Run (Finale)] and during the [Recovery Market]. These groups often enter the market late, usually after witnessing significant price rises.

When categorized by UTXO AGE, these groups currently correspond to the 2-3 years and 1-3 months ranges.

Before the onset of a major bull market, the average acquisition price (Realized Price) of the 2-3 years and 1-3 months groups undergoes a 'smoothing process' involving repeated dead crosses and golden crosses.

Essentially, Bitcoin's price tends to stabilize near the price levels of these two groups, undergoing a 'reaccumulation period' before starting to rise again. This phase is referred to as 'Correction during Recovery.'

This period is commonly known as the time when the "fools' coins" are bought up by the smarter investors. Savvy investors, having previously sold to the FOMO group, buy back from them at lower prices.

Written by CoinLupin

Today, perhaps the most prevalent topics of discussion revolve around the decrease in miners' revenue following the halving event and unfounded scenarios regarding the network's vulnerability. However, the data portray a different narrative than what might be expected.

As you may know, in Bitcoin halving events, the reward for creating each block reduces by 50% every 210,000 blocks. This reduction is based on the issuance of new coins in the Bitcoin proof-of-work consensus, with the average time to mine each block being 10 minutes. Consequently, with a 50% reduction in Bitcoin issuance per block, in each 4-year cycle of halving, fewer bitcoins are produced, making this digital currency even scarcer.

Regarding miners' income, the first metric indicates a decrease in miners' income in Bitcoin with each 4-year halving cycle. Meanwhile, according to the second chart, the decrease in Bitcoin supply and its inflation rate, coupled with its price growth due to scarcity and reduced supply, signify an increase in miners' income in dollars over time.

Finally, focusing on the third metric, the decrease in the issuance of new bitcoins leads to an increase in the Stock-to-Flow Ratio in each 4-year cycle, making this popular digital asset scarcer and more valuable with each cycle.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Almost there! In bull markets, when #BTC supply in profit drops to 85%-90% of their peak, it's prime time to buy more. 📈

Actually at 89% 👀👀👀👀

#bitcoin #onchain #cryptocurrencies

Written by elcryptotavo

72MA 72EMA 72WMA Funding Rate:

Since the beginning of 2024, it has surpassed the previous all-time high levels. It has since dropped rapidly and briefly dipped into negative territory. I believe it might start rising again after this adjustment.

chart SIGNAL description:

I've color-coded the 72MA as black, 72EMA as blue, and 72WMA as yellow to track changes in the Funding Rate (FR) and identify potential overbought or oversold conditions. I use these three FR moving averages to predict market trends.

This is the same chart I've introduced before: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/64f0a6193192d43a7eca44d2-Comparing-72h-Funding-Rate-with-72MA-72EMA-and-72WMA

Written by nino

When Bitcoin futures market investors' sentiment turns pessimistic, it's a good time to prepare for the next uptrend

When investor sentiment turned pessimistic in the 2021 crypto bull run, it was always a good buying opportunity

The market trend from 2023 to now is no different from the past

The psychology of dumb investors will not change in the future

Written by crypto sunmoon

Short-term holders are moving their bitcoins at a loss. Investors who have been costing higher over the last 6 months are at a loss and are likely to panic sell below the SOPR, indicating that the market is close to a local bottom. In rising markets, SOPR 1 works as support and levels below 1 are a good opportunity to accumulate.

Written by tugbachain

Post halving, the once 97% correlation between BTC and ETH has significantly diminished.

Analyzing the price from January to the present reveals that the BTC-ETH correlation remains strong at 94%. The correlation peaked at 97% between January 1st and March 31st. However, a deviation in price occurred from March 16th onwards.

In the derivative market, there are no clear indications of direction, with long position holders steadfastly above the $60k mark.

Using a linear regression model and probability distribution over a sample period of 500 days, BTC price has approached the lower band of regression. This indicates that technical traders may interpret it as a signal to scale into long positions in the coming days. However, they will exercise caution as the price is using the 200MA as a near-term support. Looking ahead, the price is expected to approach the upper band of the regression at $91k over the longer term.

Examining the probability distribution from the previous high and forecasting 70 periods ahead:

There is a 68.4% probability that the price remains in the range of $70k to $102k.

There is a 95% probability that the price remains between the range of $57k to $124k.

Written by ShivenMoodley

Here's the translation in a relaxed style:

So, here's the deal with the Puell Multiple indicator. Right now, the ratio on the Puell Multiple is sitting at 0.8, which basically means Bitcoin is still in the "safe to buy" zone at the current price range. But hey, remember this: back in 2012, 2016, and 2019, whenever the ratio hit around the same numbers, the price always took a breather before jumping back into bullish territory.

Keep an eye out, though. When the ratio gets close to that red zone or hits around 6, it usually means the price is nearing its peak.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

Miners sent a large amount of BTC to spot exchanges. Observing high volumes of Bitcoin coming from miners to spot exchanges often creates a sense of imbalance in the market. While it's normal for miners to sell to cover their operational costs, if this trend persists and miners' profitability turns negative, it could exert pressure on the Bitcoin price. However, rather than panicking based solely on this data, it's important to monitor its continuity.

Written by theKriptolik

Bitcoin's price has exhibited significant volatility and fluctuations throughout April. Despite undergoing a 15% price correction, the price continues to trade above the crucial $60,000 support level.

Although the price experienced a correction in April, these adjustments have contributed to reducing market risk, which could signal positive developments in the days ahead.

In light of these insights, the price remains above two key support levels: $60,000 and $62,000. These levels are deemed critical based on the On-chain Cost Basis overview.

The $62,000 price level represents the realized price of addresses with high activity, whereas the $60,000 price level reflects the realized price of Bitcoin held by short-term whales.

In summary, the testing of these price levels, coupled with the mitigation of severe market risk, may present an opportunity for the participation of additional actors or investors.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Bitcoin continues to endure a prolonged consolidation phase, with the price approaching the $60K threshold. Given this scenario, delving into sentiment analysis within the futures market can offer valuable insights into Bitcoin's potential trajectory.

The chart provided offers a glimpse into Bitcoin funding rates, a pivotal metric that gauges the dominance of either buyers or sellers in driving market dynamics. Upon examination, it's evident that recent corrective retracements have prompted a significant downturn in funding rates, approaching zero levels.

This downturn signifies a favorable development over the long term, as it alleviates the pressure for further liquidations and lays the groundwork for the resurgence of both long and short positions in the perpetual market. Consequently, the market appears primed to embark on a renewed impulsive trend, marking an end to the prevailing phase of uncertainty and sideways consolidation.

Written by ShayanBTC

In Bitcoin, the price periodically drops to perform liquidity cleansing before rising again. This phenomenon is common across financial markets. Typically, these drops begin with whales sending Bitcoin that has been held for a long time to exchanges, creating selling pressure through exchanges. We can detect these sales before they start by monitoring whale movements to exchanges using CDD data.

CDD, or Coin Days Destroyed, is data that identifies when long-held Bitcoins are being moved. When holders move Bitcoin, it generally creates selling pressure in the market, suppressing upward movements and leading to minor downward movements.

You can examine the selling pressure in the market that starts after receiving CDD data from the table below. Without breaking this pressure, new uptrends won't emerge. The last high CDD data in the spot markets was on April 24th. After this data, we witnessed significant selling pressure.

Written by theKriptolik

BTC STH-Realized Price is an important support line in a bull market

The BTC STH-Realized Price is the average buy price of short-term market participants(~6M) and is the benchmark for identifying a Bitcoin bull market.

If Bitcoin is still in a bullish season, the STH-Realized Price is a very good buying opportunity

Written by crypto sunmoon

I am currently awaiting an increase in Bitfinex's reserves. During the previous bubble market, when Bitfinex’s reserves were increasing and Binance’s funding rate turned negative, it often indicated that prices were nearing the bottom. While this observation is based on past occurrences, if the user base size of Bitfinex and Binance remains unchanged in this current bubble, I might witness this situation again.

Given the current circumstances where Binance's funding rate has turned negative, I am closely monitoring the developments at Bitfinex.

Written by nino

Bitcoin's price surges have failed to translate into a commensurate uptick in adoption, as evidenced by a persistent downtrend in active addresses throughout 2024. While the transition of some on-chain participants to ETF holders may introduce complexities in data interpretation, sufficient time has likely elapsed post-ETF for stabilization. In this context, amid increasing uncertainly, I think a heightened responsiveness to shorter-term signals is needed.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

In the current market climate, Bitcoin's short-term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has entered a zone of indecisive direction, juxtaposed against the sustained bullish momentum of the adjusted SOPR. This divergence underscores a nuanced landscape wherein short-term holders confront losses and potential erosion of confidence. While fluctuations of this nature are not uncommon, particularly during periods of price exploration toward new all-time highs, heightened vigilance is warranted. The persistence of a bullish aSOPR amidst wavering short-term SOPR trends gives rise to the possibility of a rapid downward shift once the aSOPR trajectory reverses.

Written by Phi Deltalytics

You can check the Realized Price by BTC age on UTXO through the Realized Price-UTXO Age band. This is the cost basis and can act as support/resistance.

⚠️But you should not interpret the band as it is. This is because the overall Realized Cap Dominance (%) is different for each cohort.

📌Long-Term Holder: Let’s look at the actual Realized Price of LTH, reflecting the proportion of Realized Cap. When including the last cycle, the cohort ranges from 6m to 5yr and is 47.0% of the total cap.

(L: Realized Price / R: Realized Cap Dominance)

🟧6m~12m

$28.28k / 7.89%

🟩12m~18m

$20.94k / 7.89%

🟪18m~2yr

$23.73k / 3.41%

🟦2yr~3yr

$49.24k / 14.51%

⬛3yr~5yr

$26.56k / 13.29%

☑️The weighted average value reflecting their proportion is $31.66k.

1) The difference from the current price of $63.47k is significant, and most of the LTH is in profit.

- - This is why the tendency to realize LTH profits is high.

2) $31.66k is near the short-term high in July 2023, which was a sideways market, and is about 50% of the current price.

3) The reason why 3y-5y RP has risen sharply recently is because of LTH purchased during the 2020-2021 bull market.

- However, their Realized Cap Dominance does not increase much compared to RP.

- This is because they have endured losses for a long time and show a strong tendency to realize profits now that they have passed the break-even point.

4) The 2y-3y cohort also showed a significant tendency to realize profits, showing a significant decrease in dominance.

5) It is unlikely that the price will be sharply adjusted (-50%) to $31.66k, but it is difficult to expect strong support with the LTH Dominance reduced.

- The maximum drawdown in this cycle was -20% and -36% in 2015-2017. 2019-2021 was 62%, but this was due to COVID-19.

6) STH RP of $59k will act as support, but we need to monitor whether it can be maintained.

Written by Yonsei_dent

Since breaking through the $50,000 mark in late February (indicated by the circle on the price chart), it is the first time in a long period that the funding rate has turned negative. There is variability among different exchanges (marked by the square area), which began in early April and continues to this day. This shift is speculated to be due to a demand for hedging with physical Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving. Moreover, this hedging demand is likely to be settled through counter-trades, which I believe will help to further drive up the prices in the future.

Written by nino