Jumi - Crypto Insight

There’s been a lot of talk recently about tokens dumping hard after listing on @binance . Let's look at the data across all exchanges for a broader perspective.

❌ The Reality: A sea of red. The loss rate for buying new listings ranges from 87-93% market-wide.
✅ Performance Ranking (Win Rate):
🥇 Coinbase: 13.2%
🥈 Kraken: 12.5%
🥉 Binance: 11.9% ...
🔻 Lowest: Cryptocom (6.9%), Bithumb (7.7%), Kucoin (8.7%).

3 Key Takeaways for this Cycle:
1️⃣ Listing is no longer a "Money Printer": Unlike 2021, current ROI is mostly NEGATIVE regardless of the exchange. Market Makers and VCs have changed the game.
2️⃣ Binance FUD is emotional: The data proves Binance remains Tier 1 in terms of project quality (Top 3).
3️⃣ New Strategy: Instead of blindly FOMOing into the listing candle:
▪️Check FDV carefully (avoid overvaluation).
▪️Monitor the Orderbook and Real Volume.
▪️Be patient and wait for price equilibrium.
#BİNANCE

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility toward the end of November 2025, with the global total market capitalization (including Bitcoin) reaching approximately $2.84 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,230, up 1.76% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) sits at $2,839, rising 1.78% over the same period. However, beneath this surface-level stability lie important technical signals suggesting the potential start of a new altcoin cycle — similar to what happened in 2021. This article provides an in-depth analysis based on the latest market data, focusing on TOTAL3/BTC and BTC Dominance while comparing current conditions to historical cycles.

Overall Market Conditions
The crypto market has seen a steep decline over the past six weeks, losing more than $1 trillion in market cap, according to CoinGecko and reports from The Guardian. In early November 2025, strong outflows pushed Bitcoin to a low of $80,553, while Ether hit a four-month bottom. The main drivers include fears of a tech bubble, the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy, and volatility across tech stocks globally. Despite this, the market is showing mild recovery signs:
Most of the top 10 tokens have posted 24h gains, with Dogecoin (DOGE) +2.73% and XRP +2.24% leading.
The Altcoin Season Index has climbed into the mid-40s — the highest in a month — signaling that capital is gradually rotating away from Bitcoin.
TOTAL3/BTC Analysis: Signs of a Bottom and Rebound
TOTAL3/BTC measures altcoin strength relative to Bitcoin (total altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH, divided by BTC price). According to TradingView, the index formed a new low in early November 2025, breaking a multi-year downward trendline (2022–2025). TOTAL3/BTC has now bounced above the 50-week moving average (50W MA) — a strong technical signal.

Market Data: According to Kairon Labs (11/11/2025), TOTAL3 shows clear bottoming signals and a minor rebound from recent lows, though momentum remains weak. Compared to its 2021 peak, the index is still down more than 80%, but the trendline breakout suggests altcoin inflows may accelerate.
Significance: This mirrors early 2021, when TOTAL3/BTC doubled in a few months, triggering altseason with tokens like SOL and ADA rising 10–20x.
If history repeats, rising TOTAL3/BTC could indicate that altcoins are poised to outperform, particularly as fragmented liquidity across small CEXs and DEXs creates opportunities for niche tokens (memecoins or new DeFi projects).
BTC Dominance: Breaking a Four-Year Uptrend and Entering a Bearish Retest
BTC Dominance — the percentage of total crypto market cap represented by Bitcoin — is a crucial indicator. According to CoinMarketCap and TradingView, dominance recently broke its four-year uptrend (since 2021), peaking at 61.4% in early November before dropping to 58.8%, stabilizing around 59% (Bitget News, 23/11/2025).
Technical View: Dominance is showing a bearish retest after breaking its ascending channel — the same pattern that led to a drop from 60% to 39% during the 2021 cycle. When dominance falls below 60%, capital usually flows into altcoins, boosting TOTAL3.
Current Context: Despite strong outflows and risk-off sentiment, dominance weakening aligns with the TOTAL3 rebound — a bullish sign for altcoins.
Comparison to the 2021 Cycle: BTC Down, Market Still Expands
The most notable similarity to 2021 is the alignment of signals: TOTAL3/BTC breakout + dominance breakdown, while BTC also retraced more than 30% from its high (from ~64k to ~47k). However, BTC still went on to set a new all-time high at $69k in November 2021, igniting an altcoin explosion.
Current (Nov 2025): BTC is pulling back from its October peak (~$95k) to ~$87k, mirroring the “mid-cycle correction” seen in 2021.
The market setup is nearly identical: weak BTC, rising TOTAL3, falling dominance.
Reuters (21/11/2025) notes BTC is “on thin ice” due to risk volatility — but historically, these conditions precede major altcoin runs.
Conclusion
Despite short-term risks — including a 25% market cap drop from the October peak and major macro factors (Fed policy, inflation, and the AI/tech bubble) — both technical data and historical patterns paint a more optimistic picture. The breakout of TOTAL3/BTC and the bearish retest in BTC dominance are strong signals that the largest altcoin expansion phase has not yet occurred.
If history rhymes, the market may be mid-cycle, with altcoins poised for significant growth heading into Q1 2026.
(Data updated to 24/11/2025 UTC.) #Altcoin $BTC

TL;DR
The Fear and Greed Index stands at 24 (extreme fear) on November 13, 2025, close to the record low of 15 on March 11, 2025.
Despite Bitcoin holding above $100,000, on-chain data shows strong whale accumulation, record net outflows, and a 14% decline in exchange reserves this year.
Bitcoin’s individual Fear & Greed Index is 15, the lowest since February 27, 2025.
Historical Context of Extreme Fear
A BTC Fear & Greed reading below 20 often marks major market bottoms.
The level of 15 on March 11, 2025 marked the yearly low around $80,000.
The market then rebounded 40% to $112,000 within two weeks.
Historical extreme fear events:
• COVID crash (Mar 2020): Index ~10, BTC from $8,000 → $4,000 → +1,400%
• Terra Luna collapse (Jun 2022): Index 8, bear-market bottom at $18,000
• Crypto Winter (Dec 2018): Index 5, bottom at $3,200
Current Market Sentiment
The total crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 24, showing “irrational fear” despite BTC remaining in the six-figure zone — a classic reversal condition.
On-Chain Data: Silent Accumulation
Despite negative sentiment, blockchain data tells a different story:
• Record net outflow: –7,500 BTC/day (14D SMA), lowest in 3 years
• Exchange reserves down: 2.39M BTC — lowest in 7 years, down 14% YTD
• Whale accumulation: +45,000 BTC this week — 2nd largest in 2025
• Long-term holders: absorbing supply from short-term sellers capitulating at a loss
Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages, but the daily RSI is near oversold (30), a common reversal zone.
Derivatives Market
• Open interest: –1.57% (24h), leverage leaving the system
• Max Pain: $103,000 (Nov 13), acting as resistance
• Long liquidations: 83% ($133M), signaling capitulation
Conclusion: Opportunity Within Fear
Extreme fear + positive on-chain accumulation creates a strong contrarian setup.
Historically, 80% of Fear & Greed readings below 25 lead to 10–30% rallies within 1–4 weeks.
Bullish scenario:
• Hold above $101,500 → targets $103,000 → $110,000
Risk scenario:
• Break below $100,000 → cascade liquidations toward $98,000
As Warren Buffett said:
“Be greedy when others are fearful.”
And right now, the market is deeply fearful.