GEMINI

#Ethereum’s on chain transfer volume has risen to 1.17 million based on the 14 day SMA, a zone that previously marked cycle highs in both 2018 and 2021, according to CryptoQuant. In earlier market cycles, similar surges in transfer activity reflected intense network usage near local tops, often followed by increased price swings and distribution from larger holders.

STH selling pressure keeps rising, with nearly 60,000 #BTC sent to exchanges in the last 24 hours. This is the highest inflow of the year and it is happening entirely at a loss, showing clear panic selling.

LTH are not moving any BTC in profit, which confirms this move is driven purely by short term capitulation. Volatility is likely to stay high until this selling pressure fades.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#NVIDIA $NVDA stock now has just a $200B market cap lead as the largest company in the world over #Apple $AAPL

#USDC✅ inflows to exchanges have increased recently, a move that often suggests buy side liquidity is being positioned. When stablecoins shift onto exchanges, it usually means traders are preparing to put capital to work.

Market conditions have shifted back into a loss dominated phase, with the 3D SMA of Net Realized Profit and Loss falling to around -$317M per day, a level last seen in December 2022. Stressed sellers are once again setting the tone. Liquidity continues to fade, participation is thinning, and the market is moving into a period where patience is being tested. Until demand and activity recover, price action is likely to remain fragile and reactive rather than trend driven.

The move to $96K was driven mostly by short liquidations in a thin liquidity environment, not by strong buying interest. Derivatives volume stayed low, which allowed small position changes to push price higher very quickly. Because of that, the rally is still unconfirmed. From here, price needs real spot demand and stronger volume to hold these levels, otherwise the move could fade or pull back once the liquidation pressure ends.

#Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, when BTC was trading near $29K. This shows a clear reset in unrealized profits, with price moving back toward fair value after the previous expansion. Speculative pressure has cooled, downside risk appears reduced and the market structure looks healthier overall.

#Bitcoin is entering a critical phase with around 44% of its supply now underwater. Over the past month, price has dropped from $108K to $76K, a decline of nearly 30%, while the share of coins in profit has fallen from 78% to 56%. A large amount of supply was accumulated near recent highs, and those buyers are now holding at a loss, creating pressure around these levels.

This is where conviction is tested, as some holders choose patience while others may sell under stress. How this group reacts in the coming weeks and months will play a major role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or sees further downside, making this period more about psychology than price alone.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is approaching 1, according to Glassnode data, a level historically linked to market capitulation. This indicates that selling pressure may be weakening and the market could be nearing a stabilization phase. Although it does not guarantee an immediate reversal, similar levels in past cycles have often appeared near local bottoms.

Long-term accumulation by #Bitcoin whales remains strong 👀

Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw heavy liquidations, with 101,652 traders forced out of their positions. Total liquidations amounted to $293.13 million. The biggest hit came from Bybit, where a single #BTCUSD trade worth $10.50 million was liquidated.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin has now entered its fifth straight month of correction, with the move largely beginning after the October 10 liquidity event that caused heavy damage in the futures market. On that day alone, more than 70,000 BTC in open interest was wiped out, erasing over $8 billion. Since then, overall market liquidity has continued to weaken, shown by #stablecoins flowing out of exchanges and an estimated $10 billion drop in total stablecoin market cap. At the same time, Bitcoin spot demand has cooled significantly.

Since October, spot trading volumes have been cut nearly in half, with #Binance volumes falling from around $200 billion to about $104 billion. This has pushed spot activity back to some of the lowest levels seen since 2024, signaling reduced investor participation and weaker demand. With uncertainty still high, the market is not favoring risk taking and any sustainable recovery will likely depend on a clear return of spot trading volume.

On chain analysis looks beyond price by tracking the real cost basis of different investor groups. A key signal is the crossover between 1 month buyers and the 6 month holder cohort. When this crossover happens, it often shows a shift in ownership from short term, weaker hands to longer term, stronger holders. In past cycles, this change has closely matched entries and exits from deep bear market phases. This makes cohort cost basis crossovers a simple but powerful tool for identifying major market regime shifts.

For the first time since launch, US spot #Bitcoin ETF holders are sitting in net unrealized losses, with BTC trading below their average cost basis near $84k. Until now, this group has absorbed volatility with little hesitation, steadily bidding despite pullbacks.

This shift turns attention to positioning rather than price alone. The coming sessions will show whether ETF demand remains sticky or if pressure builds through redemptions. The response here matters, as ETF behavior has become a major driver of short term market direction.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin has fallen below its True Market Mean for the first time in about 2.5 years. The last time this happened, BTC was around $29,000. This is a rare on chain signal that usually appears during high fear and heavy selling. Historically, it has shown up closer to market reset zones than market tops.

#XRP’s realized price is sitting near $1.48, and the current setup strongly resembles the market structure from April 2022. Back then, price moved in a tight range as participants positioned themselves ahead of a larger move. Similar behavior now suggests the market may be in an accumulation phase, where patience matters more than speed. A clear breakout or breakdown will likely define the next trend, so watching liquidity zones and overall crypto market direction is key...