CryptoQuant Quicktake

Today, April 12, the price has fallen from $73,788 to $71,170, representing an approximate decline of 3.55%.

What truly matters is that this price movement was essentially driven by a strong increase in Open Interest over the past 8 days, that is, by an aggressive expansion of futures positions.

It can be clearly seen how the TradingView price chart is reproducing virtually the same structure as Open Interest over recent days. This is not a coincidence: Open Interest is made up primarily of futures positions, so its growth usually reflects rising leverage rather than solid spot demand. Figure 1. Price structure on TradingView. Source: TradingView.

Yesterday, price momentum was already slowing down, and Open Interest was also beginning to lose momentum. This is visible in Figure 2 (Open Interest), where both structures stop expanding with the same intensity.

Today’s decline not only implies a correction, but also a break of the uptrend, and that same break is reflected in Open Interest. This can be clearly seen in Figure 2, where the contraction in open interest accompanies the loss of price structure. Figure 2. Bitcoin: Open Interest - All Exchanges, All Symbol. Source: CryptoQuant.

This reinforces the thesis that a large part of the growth seen over the previous 8 days was driven by the opening of futures positions, rather than by a consistent inflow of spot demand. In other words, the previous advance was sustained by a fragile structure, dependent on leverage.

The break of the uptrend through a dominant bearish BTC candle, which invalidates the last key candle of the previous bullish structure, technically confirms a real break of that trend. In this context, the market is now exposed to a bearish or corrective phase, with a probable retracement toward the initial impulse area. Without solid spot demand, any rebound will remain structurally fragile.

Carmelo Alemán | On-Chain Analyst | Verified on CryptoQuant

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Written by Carmelo_Alemán

The ERC20 Stablecoin Exchange Reserve on Binance has recorded a significant upward trajectory, reaching approximately 46.3B, marking its highest level since early February. This robust recovery indicates that roughly 5B in stablecoin liquidity has been deposited into the exchange since the February bottom.

While this figure is still below the cycle peak of 51B recorded in November 2025, the current trend is highly optimistic from an on-chain perspective. In cryptocurrency market analysis, growing stablecoin reserves on major exchanges act as a direct proxy for increasing purchasing power or available dry powder.

This 5B influx strongly suggests that investors are actively moving fiat-pegged liquidity back onto the exchange, likely positioning themselves to accumulate Bitcoin or altcoins. Rising stablecoin reserves historically dampen downside volatility and serve as a fundamental catalyst for upward price action. If this accumulation trend persists and approaches the previous 51B threshold, the broader crypto market could experience substantial buying pressure in the near term.

Written by CryptoOnchain

As Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the 63,000$ to 73,000$ range since the beginning of February 2026, on-chain data reveals a severe drop-in network activity. The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Daily Average Transaction Volume has plummeted to its lowest level since early 2025.

Following the dramatic price rejection from the 127,000$ peak in October, the market has transitioned into a phase of extreme apathy. This sharp decline in the average transaction size indicates that large entities—namely whales and institutional investors—are currently sidelined, adopting a strict “wait-and-see” approach.

Historically, prolonged periods of depressed transaction volume during price consolidation point to market exhaustion and low liquidity. Traders should monitor this metric closely; a sudden spike in average transaction volume will likely serve as the primary on-chain confirmation needed to validate the next directional breakout from the current trading range.

Written by CryptoOnchain

According to DeFiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has reached around $95 billion, showing a structural recovery after the post-2021 correction. This reflects sustained capital inflows into DeFi protocols, signaling a return of real demand in on-chain finance.

DeFi is being re-evaluated as a core financial infrastructure rather than a speculative trend. Unlike traditional finance, where assets are managed through intermediaries, DeFi enables users to directly control their assets via blockchain-based smart contracts. This represents a fundamental shift from trust in institutions to trust in code and self-management.

At the center of this shift is self-custody. By holding private keys, users retain full ownership of their assets. In Japan, solutions like Hashport Wallet are making self-custody more accessible, lowering the barrier for mainstream adoption.

Stablecoins play a critical role in this ecosystem. Their price stability allows them to function as a foundation for payments, transfers, and DeFi operations. Globally, their market size continues to expand, supporting real-world financial use cases.

As shown in the CryptoQuant chart, Ethereum transaction activity has surged recently, indicating growing network usage. When increased activity aligns with rising prices, it suggests demand-driven growth rather than speculative momentum, pointing to a strengthening on-chain economy.

In Japan, JPYC is emerging as a key driver of this shift. As a yen-denominated stablecoin, it enables DeFi use cases in local currency, making blockchain finance more practical for both individuals and institutions.

Ultimately, DeFi represents the democratization of financial access. With only a wallet and internet connection, users can access global financial services. Japan’s approach, led by JPYC and Hashport, highlights how self-custody and stablecoins can shape a unique national financial model.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

If you want to know why Apparent Demand Growth, Realized Cap, UTXO Age Band (1d - 1w), and Blocks Mined are displayed using Japanese charting methods, I recommend reading the following:

• This dashboard demonstrates, through empirical examples, for the first time that Japanese charting methods, with more than 200 years of history and part of the CMT body of knowledge, a designation recognized by FINRA and the SEC, are applied directly to numerical data that do not represent raw price (many professional indicators), and can be used for trading.

• For the first time as well, I used them to represent network data.

• Includes the history of Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links included).

• All the trading material shared here comes from authors whose work has been vetted and promoted by the CMT (Chartered Market Technician).

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Check the link below ↓

Written by _OnChain

With Bitcoin trading at $71,114 (-2.74%), the market is pricing in the panic after US President Donald Trump announced the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, due to the failure in the attempt to end the war. The military tension with Iran scared the common investor, but the on-chain x-ray reveals that institutional capital does not stop buying, even amidst geopolitical uncertainty.

BITCOIN NETFLOW

While the news bleeds, smart money accumulates. Our main thermometer, Bitcoin: Total Netflow - Binance (SMA-30), registers an average on the publication date of -1.351K BTC ($95.87 million), proving an aggressive removal of coins from the world's largest exchange. Validating this tactical movement, the indicator Bitcoin: Short Term Holder - SOPR - All Exchanges, which represents retail, marks 1.0018. The mathematical verdict is irrefutable: realizing losses predominated over the last 182 days, of which 148 (81.32%) were below 1.00. Today, these investors liquidate their positions practically at 'breakeven' to escape the volatility, delivering cheap liquidity into the hands of those who dictate the rules of the game.

EXCHANGE RESERVE

The high probability of facing a real-time supply shock is confirmed by the indicator Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges. The global balance plummeted to 2,699,738 BTC, operating below its weekly moving average (SMA-7 of 2,704,201 BTC). This discrepancy drained exactly 4.463K BTC from the order books — an exodus of $316.2 million towards cold wallets (cold storage), right in the epicenter of the geopolitical chaos.

CONCLUSION

The scenario proves that today's drop is not a trend reversal, but a brutal wealth transfer disguised as macroeconomic panic. The data shows that betting against the market in the face of this structural liquidity drought is putting yourself in front of an institutional steamroller.

Written by GugaOnChain

If you want to know why Apparent Demand Growth, Open Interest, Fund Holdings, and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss are displayed using Japanese charting methods, I recommend reading the following:

• This dashboard demonstrates, through empirical examples, for the first time that Japanese charting methods, with more than 200 years of history and part of the CMT body of knowledge, a designation recognized by FINRA and the SEC, are applied directly to numerical data that do not represent raw price (many professional indicators), and can be used for trading.

• For the first time as well, I used them to represent network data.

• Includes the history of Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links included).

• All the trading material shared here comes from authors whose work has been vetted and promoted by the CMT (Chartered Market Technician).

• The CMT Association was founded in 1973 by Ralph Acampora, John Brooks, and John Greeley, growing from informal meetings of technical analysts that began in New York in 1967. Over the following decades, Acampora and the association worked to legitimize the discipline (it was finally recognized by FINRA and the SEC). Today, the CMT represents the highest professional standard in technical analysis. Acampora himself evolved to advocate for what he calls "fusion analysis", the integration of technical and fundamental approaches, as the most complete way to analyze markets.

• The path of technical analysis toward institutional recognition is quite similar to Bitcoin’s. Both faced years of skepticism before regulators (SEC) acknowledged their legitimacy.

• Check the link below ↓

Written by _OnChain

The 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Sender/Receiver Address Ratio on Binance has experienced a steep decline, dropping to 0.98 on April 8. This marks the lowest level recorded since March 2023, representing a drastic shift from just one month prior when the ratio stood at 1.48.

Based on the metric calculation (the number of sender addresses divided by the number of receiver addresses), a ratio falling below 1 indicates that the number of unique addresses receiving Bitcoin now exceeds the number of addresses sending it.

This on-chain behavioral shift is unfolding during a critical market phase. Following a massive macroeconomic correction from the 127,000 USD peak in October 2025, Bitcoin’s price has entered a consolidation zone, trading between 63,000 USD and 73,000 USD since February.

The divergence between a sideways price action and a plummeting Sender/Receiver ratio is a classic indicator of an accumulation phase. It suggests that after the deep correction, market participants are stepping in to buy within this range and withdrawing their assets to private wallets (increasing receiver addresses). This minimizes the active supply on exchanges, signaling an exhaustion of selling pressure and the potential formation of a solid macro bottom.

Written by CryptoOnchain

After a week suggesting an improvement in the geopolitical situation, the negotiations scheduled for this weekend ultimately put an end to that hope.

JD Vance announced overnight that no agreement had been reached between Iran and the United States, mainly due to ongoing disagreements over nuclear issues.

Following the announcement, BTC declined by around 3%, revisiting the $70,000 area.

Despite a drawdown of nearly 42% from its last peak, investors continue to position on the downside.

Within the span of one hour, nearly $1B in sell volume hit Binance derivatives, reinforcing the selling pressure.

Funding rates remain dominated by shorts, now in negative territory around -0.0065%.

For reference, Binance includes an implicit interest rate of 0.01% in the funding rate calculation.

When funding drops below this threshold, it indicates that short positions are already dominating the market.

In the very short term, this reflects significant bearish pressure.

However, when this type of consensus forms, the market has historically tended to move against the majority.

That said, this dynamic is generally less pronounced in bear markets. Even when it triggers short-term reactions, they tend to be limited in magnitude and duration.

Written by Darkfost

XRP open interest data indicates a significant decline across major trading platforms, reflecting reduced futures activity and a notable outflow of liquidity from the XRP market in recent periods.

Binance recorded the largest decline by a considerable margin, with open interest decreasing by approximately -721.49 million XRP. This sharp drop reflects the closure of substantial positions by traders. The significant decrease suggests a clear decline in risk appetite, particularly since Binance is one of the largest futures trading platforms, meaning that strong movements on the exchange often reflect broader market trends. This decline may also indicate liquidations or trader exits following a period of price volatility in XRP.

Bybit ranked second, with open interest declining by approximately -132.10 million XRP. This notable drop also reflects a reduction in open positions. Although the decline was significantly smaller than Binance’s, it still signals weakening speculative momentum, with traders increasingly reducing their exposure to risk in the XRP market.

Bitfinex came in third, recording a decline of approximately -10.96 million XRP.

the decline in open interest across the three largest trading platforms reflects cautious market sentiment, as traders close positions and reduce leverage. A drop in open interest typically indicates weaker short-term momentum; however, it can also create conditions for a stronger market move once liquidity returns and new positions begin to form.

Written by Arab Chain

It remains relatively modest for now, but the share of supply held for more than one year is gradually starting to increase again, signaling an early shift in market behavior.

The 30-day change has been in positive territory since mid-December, suggesting that investors are increasingly choosing to hold their BTC rather than distribute it.

This type of dynamic often reflects a transition from a more speculative market environment toward a phase of stronger long-term conviction.

Between October and today, the amount of BTC held for one year or more has increased from 12 million to 12.4 million BTC.

While the magnitude remains moderate, it highlights a meaningful shift in behavior and market dynamics that appears to be unfolding.

Historically, the share of supply held for more than one year tends to decline sharply at cycle tops, as long-term holders distribute their coins.

Conversely, it gradually rebuilds throughout bear markets, as investors accumulate with a longer-term horizon.

This progressive increase can therefore be interpreted as an early signal of market stabilization, with supply increasingly moving into stronger hands.

However, it’s important to understand that this is a long-term timeframe, it’s a dynamic that takes time to develop.

Written by Darkfost

Even the whales are sliding into unrealized losses — a true crypto winter.

Most participants have left the market and interest has all but evaporated, but in hindsight, these are precisely the moments that tend to offer the best opportunities.

Written by crypto sunmoon

With BTC at US$73,337 (+9.02% in 7d) and Settlement Volume of 706,014 BTC (US$51.5B), the indicator “Bitcoin: OTC vs Exchange Dominance Share (24h %)” lights up a macro alert: the OTC Share reached 82.26%. What does this show us? When we cross the Institutional Alert Zone (80–90%), public liquidity dries up, leaving only 17.14% of CEX Share. This phenomenon is not new and has been intensifying in recent weeks. Smart Money keeps absorbing gigantic lots over-the-counter, reinforcing the alert for those trading futures: do not take short positions. With 82% of settlement outside the order books, any spike in buying demand in the spot market will find a void on the sell side, triggering a supply shock and a violent upward repricing.

IN THE LAST 24H THE INSTITUTIONAL SIDE ALSO SHOWED DOMINANCE IN CEXS

By dissecting the residual flow of 17.14% through our indicator, capital rotation makes clear who is setting the rules of the game:

◾Coinbase (58.21%) → Custodies 8 of the 11 Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

◾Binance (22.13%) → Leader in spot and derivatives, holds the largest share of global market, but serves more as a retail entry point than institutional.

◾Kraken (6.44%) → Focused strictly on compliance and attracting pure institutional capital, but far from Coinbase’s numbers.

MATHEMATICAL PROOF OF THE SUPPLY SHOCK

To confirm that the 82.26% in OTC represents structural accumulation and not distribution, we cross-checked with the indicator “Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow – Spent Output Age Bands – All Exchanges.” The result is definitive: the sum of all deposits of coins older than 6 months was only 94.68 BTC in the last 24h. Compared to the 706,000 coins moved on the network the same day, this proves the absolute lethargy of Long-Term Holders. No old coins are being sold. Liquidity is being drained over-the-counter and locked away.

Written by GugaOnChain

In recent days, Bitcoin data combined with the Coinbase Premium Index has been showing a notable shift in the structure of capital flows.

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to international exchanges. When the index is positive, it reflects stronger buying pressure from U.S. investors, typically institutional players.

In a bullish scenario, if the Premium Index continues to remain positive and strengthens steadily, the market could enter a new uptrend.

The data is sending a clear signal: smart money is showing signs of returning, but the market is still in a preparatory phase. This could be an important transition period, where long-term positions begin to be built ahead of the next major trend.

Written by Rei Researcher

U.S. inflation is showing signs of reacceleration. Headline CPI rose to +3.3% YoY in March 2026, while core CPI remained at +2.6%, highlighting a clear divergence. Core PCE also stands above target at +3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressure.

The key point is that this inflation is driven more by supply shocks than demand. Rising oil prices and renewed supply chain pressures suggest that energy and logistics constraints are pushing prices higher. This explains the current structure of rising headline inflation with relatively stable core inflation.

In this environment, Bitcoin cannot be understood as a simple inflation hedge. In practice, BTC is more sensitive to financial conditions such as real rates, the U.S. dollar, and overall liquidity. Higher-for-longer rates tend to pressure BTC, while improving liquidity supports rebounds.

Importantly, there is no stable correlation between inflation and Bitcoin. As shown in the chart, both rose in 2025, but in 2026 inflation stayed elevated while BTC declined. This divergence shows that BTC reacts not to inflation itself, but to monetary policy and liquidity conditions. The persistent negative Coinbase Premium Index in 2026 also signals weak U.S. demand, weighing on price.

Thus, the relationship should be understood as: inflation → monetary policy → liquidity → demand → BTC.

Ultimately, Bitcoin is driven not by inflation itself, but by how inflation shapes financial conditions. Monitoring supply shocks, policy response, and capital flows is key to understanding the market.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

An analysis of exchange inflow data reveals a significant shift in investor behavior. According to the monthly USD inflow chart for Binance, March 2026 witnessed a dramatic decline. The total monthly inflow dropped to 10.05K million USD (approximately 10 billion USD), marking the lowest level recorded since early 2025.

To understand the significance of this drop, we must consider Bitcoin’s recent price trajectory. The market reached a historic peak of 127,000 USD in October 2025, a period characterized by massive inflows to exchanges as investors took profits. This was followed by a severe correction that dragged the price down to a local bottom of around 60,000 USD in February 2026. Now, in April 2026, Bitcoin has managed to recover and is fluctuating around the 73,000 USD mark.

The sharp decrease in Binance inflows during March, immediately following the cyclical bottom, sends a crucial message: selling pressure is exhausted. Despite the price rebounding from 60,000 USD to 73,000 USD, investors are showing no desire to move their assets to exchanges for liquidation. This behavior indicates that the distribution phase, which began at the 127,000 USD peak, has concluded and transitioned into a holding and accumulation phase. The lack of available supply on exchanges establishes a solid support foundation for Bitcoin, potentially paving the way for continued upward momentum.

Written by CryptoOnchain

This is lowest value since February 6, when $BTC hit low around $60,000.

The market is very “easy” and obvious to trade on sell side.

Caution is needed when establishing positions in current range, since it represents an area of buying demand.

Bears trapped? Likelihood of a short squeeze is increasing.

Written by G a a h

The 30-day change in exchange active addresses reveals a structural shift in where real market activity is forming. This metric, derived from the sum of unique inflow and outflow addresses across BTC and ERC-20 transactions, measures actual user interaction with exchange infrastructure. By comparing the current 30-day average with the previous 30-day period, it removes short-term noise and provides a statistically grounded view of participation trends.

The data shows a broad contraction across several exchanges, both in absolute and percentage terms. This indicates a decline in unique addresses actively transacting, which directly reflects reduced interaction density and weaker liquidity conditions on those platforms. Fewer active addresses mean less capital movement, thinner order flow, and ultimately less efficient execution environments.

Within this context, Binance records a clear positive change in both absolute and relative terms. Given that this metric captures bidirectional activity—both inflows and outflows—this increase reflects stronger circulation of capital rather than one-sided movement. It suggests that user activity is not only entering but also continuously interacting within the platform.

What emerges from the data is not a uniform decline in market activity, but a redistribution. Participation is consolidating toward exchanges that sustain higher levels of interaction. This has direct implications for market structure, as higher active address density typically aligns with deeper liquidity and stronger price discovery.

This reinforces the importance of exchange-level on-chain data. When measured accurately, it becomes a critical tool for understanding where real activity is concentrated, how competition between exchanges evolves, and how liquidity is shaped across the broader crypto market.

Written by Crazzyblockk

An analysis of XRP trading metrics on Binance reveals a fundamental shift in market sentiment. The 100-day Simple Moving Average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has surged in a strong uptrend, reaching a historic all-time high. Breaking down the components of this metric exposes a clear and compelling bullish divergence.

According to the data, the 30-day SMA of the Taker Buy Ratio is experiencing significant growth, peaking at approximately 0.495. Conversely, and simultaneously, the 30-day SMA of the Taker Sell Ratio has declined steadily, hitting a cyclical low of around 0.505.

What does this signify?

In order flow analysis, taker metrics illustrate the aggressiveness of market participants. The simultaneous rise in taker buying volume and the noticeable drop in taker selling pressure indicate that sellers are experiencing exhaustion. Meanwhile, buyers are stepping in with increasing aggression, consuming liquidity, and filling ask orders.

The rapid narrowing of the gap between these two metrics, culminating in the 100-day SMA record high, provides strong evidence of a systematic accumulation phase. This confluence of data points suggests that bearish dominance is fading. The market underlying XRP is undergoing a structural shift, potentially laying the groundwork for sustained bullish price momentum in the near term.

Written by CryptoOnchain

BTC is flowing out of exchanges while funding rates remain strongly negative, creating an increasingly crowded short positioning environment where the potential for a short squeeze is building.

Funding rates came in at -0.0118% on April 10 and -0.0101% on April 11, marking two consecutive days of strong negative readings. Since March, negative funding has become more frequent, and throughout April it has remained in negative territory without flipping positive. This indicates that short positions dominate the market, with shorts paying longs, and such extreme positioning can act as a trigger for a reversal through forced liquidations.

Open interest increased from approximately $21.87B on April 6 to $24.37B on April 10, a rise of about 11.4% in just five days, before slightly declining to $24.21B on April 11. The combination of rising open interest and negative funding suggests that leveraged short positions have been rapidly accumulating. The slight decrease does not yet indicate a meaningful deleveraging phase.

Exchange netflow recorded -2,533 BTC on April 9 and -5,408 BTC on April 10, totaling around 7,900 BTC of outflows over two days. On April 11, netflow was nearly flat at -27 BTC. Large outflows are typically interpreted as accumulation, with investors moving BTC into self-custody, reducing immediate sell-side pressure.

The 30-day change in OTC desk balances has turned negative, suggesting that institutions or large buyers may be absorbing supply off-exchange. This reduces visible sell pressure on order books while tightening available supply.

Miner outflow stands at around 73.9 BTC, just above the accumulation zone threshold. This indicates that miners are not aggressively selling and are instead choosing to hold, which can be interpreted as confidence in higher prices rather than expectations of further downside.

Overall, the market structure reflects a divergence between overheated bearish sentiment and tightening supply. In such conditions, if a cata

Written by CoinNiel