CryptoQuant Quicktake

While BTC continues to trade sideways between $85,000 and $92,000, STHs remain under pressure.

With an estimated cost basis around $103,000, after adjusting for the impact of BTC moved by Coinbase, and a price near $88,000, the average unrealized losses for STHs stand at roughly 15%.

This calculation is simply based on the percentage deviation from the STH cost basis. Using this approach makes it possible to identify periods when the most reactive and sensitive investors in the market are under stress.

Historically, when STHs have experienced losses of this magnitude, meaning when unrealized losses exceeded the 15% threshold , they have already suffered significant drawdowns.

These phases have often coincided with the formation of correction lows.

This could once again be the case. However, if BTC were to enter a deep and prolonged bear market, this type of signal would lose its effectiveness, so caution remains essential.

Written by Darkfost

The Bitcoin Sentiment Index (BSI), which combines NUPL, STH-SOPR, and Volume, offers a reading of market mood. NUPL indicates whether investors are in profit or loss, reflecting structural health. STH-SOPR captures the behavior of short-term holders, revealing whether they sell at a gain or a loss. Volume functions as a strength thermometer, confirming whether movements have relevant participation or are fragile.

Thus, the on-chain indicator Bitcoin Sentiment Index (NUPL, STH-SOPR & Volume), which at the time of this publication recorded BSI: 0.25 and Volume: 37K, translates both the structural scenario and short-term signals.

INTERPRETING THE BSI

◾ BSI < 0

•Volume < 50K → Risk of further declines (strong selling pressure).

•Volume 50K–150K → Moderate decline (reduction in selling pressure).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Confirmed bottom (smart money acting effectively).

◾ BSI 0–0.20

•Volume < 50K → Faint hope (strong balance between bulls and bears, sideways movement).

•Volume 50K–150K → Initial recovery (modest market reaction).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Validated rally (firm rise, growing participation).

◾ BSI 0.20–0.30

•Volume < 50K → Mixed sentiment (fear is present).

•Volume 50K–150K → Optimism (market shows signs of confidence).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Rally in consolidation (consistent rise, with broad support).

◾ BSI 0.30–0.40

•Volume < 50K → Fragile transition (market indecisive, lacking strength).

•Volume 50K–150K → Transition zone (market remains indecisive but stronger).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Strengthened transition (rally gains consistency but still in a critical phase).

◾ BSI ≥ 0.40

•Volume < 50K → Fragile euphoria (exaggerated optimism, lacking healthy growth).

•Volume 50K–150K → Probable top (market near its limit).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Confirmed top (market at its peak, high risk of decline).

CONCLUSION

The BSI, by combining NUPL, STH-SOPR, and Volume, reflects market sentiment and identifies phases of decline, recovery, transition, and euphoria.

Written by GugaOnChain

Large institutional investors are quietly building ETH exposure ahead of any meaningful price movement. In the U.S., BitMine, led by Tom Lee, staked 82,560 ETH (approximately $260 million) in a single day, bringing total staking to roughly $1.7 billion within just one week. This behavior is more consistent with long-term network participation than with short-term speculative positioning.

At the same time, Ethereum’s transaction count has reached an all-time high. The increase appears to be driven by sustained real usage, including Layer-2 activity, rather than purely speculative trading. Network activity has advanced faster than price, suggesting that usage has already entered a more mature phase while valuation has yet to fully respond.

On the protocol side, Ethereum continues to prioritize long-term ecosystem growth over immediate revenue maximization. In 2025, the network gave up more than $100 million in guaranteed fee revenue. Since the Dencun upgrade, Layer-2 networks have paid only around $10 million to the mainnet while retaining approximately $119 million in revenue themselves, reinforcing scalability and developer incentives across the ecosystem.

That said, valuation signals remain restrained. ETH’s MVRV ratio is not only well below levels observed during past bull markets, but also remains modest when compared with prior historical undervaluation phases. As the chart suggests, MVRV is hovering near its long-term neutral zone rather than approaching extreme lows or overheated conditions. This indicates that significant downside pressure appears limited, while the market has not yet entered a phase of broad profit expansion.

At present, the base scenario is one of structural consolidation supported by improving fundamentals, rather than a confirmed bullish trend.

However, if MVRV rises sharply or leverage-driven speculation re-emerges, this assessment would need to be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Large institutional investors are quietly building ETH exposure ahead of price movement. In the U.S., BitMine, led by Tom Lee, staked 82,560 ETH (about $260 million) in a single day, bringing total staking to roughly $1.7 billion in just one week. This activity points to long-term network participation rather than short-term speculation.

Ethereum’s transaction count has also reached an all-time high. The increase appears driven by sustained real usage, including Layer-2 activity, rather than purely speculative trading. Network activity has advanced faster than price, suggesting usage has entered a more mature phase while valuation has yet to adjust.

On the protocol side, Ethereum continues to prioritize long-term ecosystem growth over immediate revenue. In 2025, it gave up more than $100 million in guaranteed fees. Since the Dencun upgrade, Layer-2 networks have paid only around $10 million to the mainnet while retaining approximately $119 million in revenue, reinforcing scalability and developer incentives.

That said, valuation signals remain restrained. ETH’s MVRV ratio is still well below levels seen during past bull markets. While downside pressure appears limited, the indicator does not yet support a strong bullish regime.

At present, the base scenario is structural consolidation supported by improving fundamentals, rather than a confirmed uptrend.

If MVRV rises sharply or leverage-driven speculation returns, this view would need to be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Tracking whale behavior can sometimes provide valuable insights. Given the size of the capital involved, decisions made by this category of investors are never insignificant.

Their scale forces them to optimize their entry points as much as possible, making their movements particularly interesting to analyze.

Over the past few days, whale activity on Binance around the LINK token from the Chainlink protocol has increased significantly.

We can observe that outflows from the 10 largest transactions on Binance have risen sharply.

While the monthly average stood at around 1,500 LINK leaving the platform per day, several spikes were recorded, reaching up to 4,500 LINK in daily outflows. This dynamic began to take shape while the token was trading in the $12 to $13 price range, following a severe correction of approximately 50%.

As a consequence, the Top 10 outflows average started to rise as well.

Historically, this type of behavior is frequently observed after strong corrective phases.

Once price has been heavily compressed, whale activity tends to intensify, allowing them to accumulate positions at a more attractive cost basis.

If this accumulation continues, the LINK token could definitively establish its bottom and resume its upward trajectory.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update

Bitcoin just crossed the $90K mark, for the first time in January — after testing it three times in December.

📊 BTC: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI [USD] 24H

The chart shows:

* Open Interest jumped from $8.25B to $8.8B in just one day.

* This is the highest Open Interest level since the end of December.

* BTC price broke above $90K, as aresult of open new positions.

* CVD also rose, confirming that new positions are mostly long buys.

📊 [BTC] Binance Retail Traders – Daily Buy/Sell Amount

This chart tracks daily buy and sell volumes from retail traders on Binance.

* A strong spike in daily positive buying volume.

* Over 4,500 BTC bought by retail in a single day.

* Same pattern happened on Dec 29, right after BTC hit $90K.

📊 BTC Liquidation Heatmap

The liquidation heatmap highlights a major liquidation cluster around the $90,000 area.

🔸 As price reached this zone, a large group of late short sellers got liquidated.

🔸 When liquidation levels are hit, over-leveraged traders are forced to buy back their positions at market price.

Important note ⚠️

Forced liquidation zones for late shorts often turn into short-term resistance levels, especially when funding rates stay elevated due to aggressive long positioning.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Monitoring retail trading behavior, open interest, and derivatives positioning gives us a much clearer picture of what’s really driving short-term price movements.

Written by Amr Taha

Data from the derivatives markets demonstrates that December 2025 stands out as the month with the lowest trading volumes of the year, reflecting a disengagement of leveraged traders.

This chart highlights the trading volumes of the top 10 coins aggregated across several major exchanges.

We can observe a broad-based decline in liquidity, confirming that the slowdown is not isolated to a single platform but affects the entire ecosystem.

This is Binance, which still dominates with approximately $1.19 trillion in monthly trading volume.

However, this figure remains particularly low. It is nearly half of the volume recorded in August 2025 and represents the weakest month of the year in terms of trading activity.

A similar trend is observed across other major exchanges. OKX recorded only $581 billion in trading volume, while Bybit was limited to $421 billion. These levels further confirm a significant liquidity contraction in the derivatives markets, mechanically reducing risk appetite and the use of leverage.

This decline in volumes reflects investor behavior in an unfavorable market environment. The increase in liquidations, combined with a period of heightened market uncertainty and unclear directionality, has reinforced risk aversion. In such conditions, market participants clearly prioritize capital preservation over performance.

Historically, this type of contraction in derivatives activity often corresponds to transitional phases, during which the market flushes out excess leverage before rebuilding a healthier trend.

Written by Darkfost

The Sharpe ratio on Bitcoin has just turned negative and is approaching a historical low-risk zone.

The Sharpe ratio is a tool used to assess risk based on an asset’s volatility and returns. By comparing these two variables, it helps identify periods when exposure is more or less risky. Normally, a low Sharpe ratio is associated with high-risk periods.

However, for Bitcoin, which is inherently volatile, this simply means that returns have been poor (in other words, investors have suffered losses) while volatility remains elevated.

On Bitcoin, the best opportunities tend to emerge precisely when losses have already been realized and volatility has amplified the correction, leading to significant drawdowns and negative returns.

This is why a negative Sharpe ratio, like the one we are seeing today (-0.5), can actually represent a good opportunity on Bitcoin. Historically, whenever this ratio has reached the extreme low-risk zone highlighted on the chart, the best buying opportunities have formed.

Written by Darkfost

Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift in Ethereum’s (ETH) net flow to Binance, with a substantial $960 million inflow recorded in December 2025 (as per the latest data point on the chart). This marks a remarkable turnaround, as Ethereum had been experiencing generally negative and decreasing net flows to the exchange since July of the same year.

This impressive figure not only indicates an abrupt change in investor behavior but also represents the highest monthly asset inflow for Ethereum to Binance since July 2025. Prior periods of negative net flows typically suggested that more ETH was being withdrawn from the exchange than deposited, often interpreted as long-term holding intentions off-exchange or potential selling pressure.

The implications of this considerable inflow are multi-faceted:

Revived Buyer Interest: This high volume of inflow could signal a strong resurgence in demand and renewed investor interest in accumulating Ethereum.

Preparation for Volatility: Traders might be moving their assets to the exchange to capitalize on upcoming trading opportunities or anticipated price fluctuations.

New Capital Injection: The trend could also indicate fresh capital entering the Ethereum ecosystem, subsequently being transferred to exchanges for active trading.

This sudden reversal from outflows to massive inflows serves as a crucial signal for the Ethereum market, potentially heralding a new phase of accumulation or heightened trading activity that investors and traders should monitor closely.

Written by CryptoOnchain

However, since the fall of 2025, Binance spot has been biased towards selling. After reaching 80,000, it became biased towards buying and was absorbed. However, it has again become biased towards selling. Although there are some places where funds are flowing in, it has reversed as it has since the fall of 2025. This is the true nature of the range.

Written by Crypto_Lion

As shown in another Quick Take, there is a mix of areas where capital flows well and areas where demand is declining.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Stablecoins depositing transactions from Binance and Coinbase are available.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Data from the binance_monthly_inflow_by_utxo_age metric highlights a sharp slowdown in short-term Bitcoin trader activity during December. BTC inflows to Binance from young UTXOs (less than 1 day old) dropped from approximately $24.7B in November to around $16.54B in December. This significant decline reflects a clear pullback by short-term traders and a reduced willingness to engage in rapid selling.

Young UTXOs represent recently moved coins and are a direct proxy for short-term, speculative behavior. Elevated inflows from this cohort typically align with immediate sell-side pressure and short-term market corrections. As a result, the contraction observed in December suggests a cooling of speculative activity and a notable reduction in instant selling pressure.

From a structural standpoint, this shift likely stems from fading price momentum toward year-end, a broader wait-and-see stance ahead of the new year, and a gradual handover of supply control to mid- and long-term holders. Such conditions are commonly associated with lower volatility and consolidation phases.

Overall, the decline in young UTXO inflows during December can be interpreted as a stabilizing signal for Bitcoin’s market structure, potentially setting the stage for more sustainable price dynamics in the months ahead.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Recent Bitcoin price action may look unstable, especially as daily ETF inflow and outflow headlines drive market sentiment. However, interpreting these flows as direct signals of institutional conviction is misleading.

In 2025, U.S. crypto ETFs recorded roughly $32 billion in net inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for about $21.4 billion. Notably, this cumulative inflow remained largely intact even through late-year price corrections. While short-term volatility increased, medium-term capital did not meaningfully exit the market.

ETF flows reflect the mechanics of a financial product rather than directional intent. Issuers such as BlackRock do not trade based on market views. Buying and selling are driven by investor positioning, portfolio rebalancing, and risk management, not by judgments on Bitcoin’s long-term value.

The key question, therefore, is whether ETF flow fluctuations translate into actual spot supply pressure. On-chain data suggests they have not.

Exchange Reserve data shows that despite price declines, total BTC held on exchanges has continued to trend lower. If ETF outflows represented a true contraction in demand, redeemed BTC would return to exchanges and reserves would rise. That pattern is absent.

At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Gap has moved into negative territory, indicating a pause in aggressive U.S. buying rather than broad-based selling. Importantly, this demand softening has not been accompanied by rising exchange balances.

Together, these signals point to a market that is consolidating rather than deteriorating. Short-term ETF flows may weigh on price, but underlying supply dynamics remain stable.

This view would change if exchange reserves begin to rise alongside persistent negative Coinbase Premium and sustained spot selling. Until then, consolidation with structural stability remains the most consistent interpretation.

The objective is not to predict price, but to accurately define the current market state.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the $80,000–$95,000 range, both spot and futures trading volumes are steadily declining. At the same time, retail investor participation continues to decrease.

With price action compressed into a narrow range, Bitcoin has clearly settled into an equilibrium zone. Such consolidation phases typically signal that high-volatility assets like Bitcoin have entered a cooling phase. During this phase, volatility contracts, volumes fade, and retail demand gradually exits the market. Current data suggests that retail interest has temporarily withdrawn from the Bitcoin market.

In summary, volumes are declining, price is compressing, and retail participation continues to fall. As long as retail interest remains weak, Bitcoin is likely to continue building liquidity within this range. If selling pressure diminishes and buyers regain control, upside momentum may re-emerge.

In the coming weeks, choppy and volatile market conditions are expected to persist. However, if the current structure holds and sell-side pressure remains limited, a retest of the $95,000 level in the near term should not come as a surprise.

Written by BorisD

📰 Daily Market Update

data from Binance derivatives market shows a very aggressive shift in Ethereum positioning

📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / Open Interest [24H]

The chart clearly shows a sharp and sudden expansion in Ethereum open interest on Binance, the largest crypto exchange globally by volume.

📈 ETH open interest surged from ~$6.2B to nearly $7.1B in less than 24 hours

📈 This is one of the strongest single-day increases seen recently

🚀 The expansion in open interest happened at the same time ETH price pushed above $3,100

This is important because rising open interest during price appreciation usually means new positions are entering the market, not just shorts covering.

📈 Even more interesting, CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also moved higher alongside open interest, which strongly suggests that:

* Most of the newly opened positions are long positions

* Buyers are using market orders aggressively, not passive limit bids

* In simple words, traders are not waiting… they are buying now.

📊 Liquidation Heatmap – ETH Derivatives

💣 A large short liquidation cluster was completely wiped out around the $3,100 level

💥 Once ETH reached this zone, over-leveraged short sellers were forced to buy back their positions

* This triggered a short squeeze effect, accelerating price movement upward

* These forced liquidations often create temporary resistance zones on lower timeframes, especially when funding rates increase rapidly

🧠 Final Thoughts

Monitoring open interest behavior and liquidation maps gives us deep insight into what is actually driving price action, especially on short to mid timeframes.

Right now, Ethereum’s move looks leverage-driven, aggressive, and emotional — which means opportunity is there, but so is risk.

Written by Amr Taha

📰 Daily Market Update

The first day of 2026 kicked off with a massive shift in stablecoin behavior

📊 Exchange Withdrawing Addresses & Transactions – Binance (USDT ERC20)

The first two charts show USDT withdrawing activity from Binance, measured in two complementary ways:

📉 Exchange Withdrawing Addresses:

Counts how many wallet addresses are withdrawing USDT from Binance.

📉 Exchange Withdrawing Transactions:

Measures the total number of USDT withdrawal transactions executed.

🔬 How to read this:

⬆️ High values usually mean investors are pulling liquidity out of the exchange, often signaling risk-off behavior or uncertainty.

⬇️ Low values typically suggest investors are keeping funds on Binance, often in preparation to buy crypto assets or increase exposure.

⏲️ Key Historical Patterns

📆 November 9: A sharp spike in both withdrawing addresses and transactions.

📆 Peak: December 2022 (All-Time High)

This period coincided with:

The LUNA / UST collapse

The FTX collaps

📉 Current Situation

* Right now, we are seeing a significant drop in both USDT(ERC20) withdrawing addresses and transactions on Binance .

* Current levels are very close to 2022 lows

* Also similar to July 2024 levels

This suggests that investors aren’t looking to withdraw USDT from Binance right now.

* Instead, it suggests that funds are remaining on the exchange, likely to increase exposure or purchase more crypto assets.

📊 [USDT] Wallets [Daily] Change Distribution – ETH (ERC20) Network

This chart breaks down daily changes in USDT balances across different wallet sizes.

📆 On Jan 1, The daily change for whale wallets alone exceeded $9 billion in a single day.

🧠 Final Thoughts

A sudden shift in daily transaction volumes in USDT wallets on the Ethereum network, along with a sharp drop in USDT withdrawals from Binance on the same network, could suggest that a group of investors is gearing up to make significant cryptocurrency purchases or aiming for steady returns through locking or staking.

Written by Amr Taha

According to the chart:

Total Inflow: 1.595T

Total Outflow: 1.583T

The net difference is around 12B USD, which is very limited. This indicates that there is no aggressive net capital inflow or outflow on Binance. The market is not in panic mode. Instead, it is clearly in a position rotation and wait and see phase. Such balance typically corresponds to sideways consolidation periods.

Inflows

USDT: 641.7B (40.22%)

USDC: 469.6B (29.43%)

Outflows

USDT: 627.4B (39.62%)

USDC: 469.5B (29.65%)

There is a very clear balance in stablecoins. Stablecoins are flowing into exchanges, but they are also flowing out. This means there is no large capital waiting on the sidelines for aggressive buying, but at the same time, there is no capital flight from the market. This structure usually forms when whales are undecided about buying, and when they do not find the current price levels sufficient to sell their ETH holdings aggressively.

ETH Flows

ETH Inflow: 418.1B (26.21%)

ETH Outflow: 420.6B (26.56%)

On the ETH side, there is a very slight outflow dominance. ETH is entering exchanges with potential selling intent. However, outflows are almost equal in size, meaning that sold ETH is being replenished. This shows that long term investors are not abandoning ETH. The activity is mainly driven by short term trades, futures/hedging positions, and arbitrage related flows. These inflows and outflows do not create strong selling pressure on ETH price, but they also lack the strength needed to initiate a rally.

Assets such as UNI, LINK, AAVE, DAI, and PAXG represent very small proportions.

There is no altcoin season behavior. If an altcoin rally were underway, we would expect to see outflows exceeding inflows for these assets meaning increased withdrawals from exchanges.

Overall, ETH price is likely to continue moving sideways in the short term. Any breakouts may remain fake breakouts, and the probability of liquidity hunts appears high.

Written by PelinayPA

The current price of $ETH is at the level of whales' accumulation price.

Whales have accumulated a huge amount of $ETH at recent prices.

They are preparing for the next step, accelerating their accumulation in anticipation of the upcoming rally.

If they expected a decline, there would be no reason to buy at the current price. They are strongly expecting a rise.

Written by CW8900

In December 2025, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $531 million. A key structural insight this month is the extreme concentration of outflows in a single fund. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF alone accounted for roughly $532 million in net outflows, effectively explaining nearly the entire monthly ETF outflow for Ethereum.

Meanwhile, other ETH spot ETFs exhibited far more neutral behavior, with some even posting modest inflows. This divergence indicates that institutional selling pressure was not broad-based, but instead driven by position adjustments within one dominant investment vehicle. Such behavior is typical during transitional market phases, where capital rotation and targeted de-risking replace indiscriminate risk-off selling across the entire ETF complex.

From a structural perspective, the sharp slowdown in total outflows compared to November’s $1.41 billion, combined with the dominance of BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust in December, points to a phase of seller concentration and potential exhaustion. Historically, this type of flow dynamic tends to align more with price stabilization and consolidation rather than a continuation of strong downside momentum.

Importantly, the data does not yet confirm renewed institutional demand for Ethereum. Instead, it signals a shift from broad-based distribution toward selective deleveraging, led primarily by one large institutional product. As long as major funds such as BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF remain in net outflow territory, it remains premature to declare a definitive reversal in institutional positioning.

In summary, December reflects cooling ETF-driven selling pressure, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust acting as the principal source of outflows. Monitoring whether flows in this fund stabilize or turn positive will be critical for assessing Ethereum’s next institutional cycle.

Written by CryptoOnchain