CryptoQuant Quicktake

A security flaw linked to older Coldcard firmware reportedly enabled attackers to predict private keys generated under certain conditions. By August 3, suspected losses had expanded to roughly 1,816 BTC across more than 5,200 addresses, although not every transfer has been conclusively tied to the same vulnerability or attacker.
The incident triggered a sharp rise in Bitcoin activity. Daily active addresses jumped from about 645,000 to nearly one million, the highest level since December 2024. However, this should not be interpreted as a bullish sign of growing adoption.
CryptoQuant data showed that the increase was concentrated mainly among sending addresses, while receiving addresses rose far less. At the same time, transactions below 1 BTC reached 39,600 BTC, nearly matching levels seen after the FTX collapse. Exchange net inflows also exceeded 11,000 BTC.
The direction of funds was particularly notable. After FTX collapsed, investors moved Bitcoin from exchanges into self-custody. This time, concerns about wallet security appear to have pushed some holders from self-custody back toward exchanges or other temporary storage options.
XWIN views the surge in active addresses as defensive repositioning rather than expanding network demand. The episode also shows why no single custody method is risk-free. On-chain indicators must be read in context: not only how much activity increased, but who moved funds, why they moved them, and where the Bitcoin went.
Written by XWIN Japan

Binance's Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has been recovering over the past few months. However, it remains significantly below the levels seen in previous market phases, suggesting that stablecoin liquidity on the exchange has yet to return to the levels that supported stronger rallies.
While this may indicate improving liquidity, it's not enough to confirm a strong return of capital. It's worth monitoring alongside price action and other on-chain metrics for a clearer picture.
$BTC #Bitcoin #OnChain
Written by Rei Researcher

The Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio has fallen to 0.031, placing it in the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle. In simple terms, the indicator is lower than on 97% of days since April 2024. This is a zone of deep market stress: the balance between supply in profit and supply in loss has deteriorated sharply, while participant confidence remains low.
Bitcoin is trading at around $62K, nearly 50% below its October 2025 peak. The indicator has remained below the 25th percentile since late January, while its average over the past two months has stayed below 5%. This points to a prolonged phase of market compression and repricing.
Historically, such zones have appeared during the late stages of bear markets. This improves the long-term risk-reward profile, but it does not mean a local bottom has already formed. In 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, the indicator remained near its lower boundary for months while the price continued to move within a wide range and periodically set new lows.
Written by AxelAdlerJr

In recent days, Binance and OKX have recorded record BTC inflows to their deposit addresses, a move significant enough to catch the attention of on-chain observers.
For comparison, typical annual averages sit around 88,000 BTC in inflows for Binance and 108,000 BTC for OKX. These levels have now been far exceeded: 332,000 BTC and 342,000 BTC flowed into Binance and OKX respectively, a record since 2023.
Such inflows to deposit addresses do not, however, systematically signal intent to sell. Several factors can drive investors to move their BTC onto platforms like Binance or OKX, ranging from regulatory considerations to portfolio reallocation, or reactions to specific events, such as the recent Coldcard hack, which may have prompted some holders to secure their funds elsewhere.
Analysis of inflows across major exchanges nuances this picture, however: no broad-based increase is observed at this stage.
On an aggregated weekly average basis, current inflows stand at roughly 5,000 BTC on Binance, 4,000 BTC on Coinbase Advanced, and 2,000 BTC on Kraken, levels that remain within normal range.
Even the Coldcard episode, despite the media attention it drew, has therefore not triggered an unusual rise in exchange inflows at the market-wide level. It's also worth noting that inflow spikes typically coincide with local lows printed by Bitcoin, moves often driven by emotion and panic rather than a deliberate exit strategy.
Written by Darkfost

Market data indicates a significant shift in trading behavior in the Bitcoin futures market on Binance. Taker buy volume has risen to approximately $2.70 billion, compared to $2.60 billion in taker sell volume, pushing the long/short ratio to around 1.04. This reflects a slight advantage for buyers, although it remains far from signaling excessive optimism.
Meanwhile, total open interest reached approximately $8.09 billion, while the OI-to-Volume ratio stood at around 1.53, indicating a continued accumulation of open contracts relative to daily trading volume. This often reflects an influx of new liquidity into the derivatives market, as traders establish positions in anticipation of a larger price move in the near term.
Despite this increase in buying activity, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable near $62,500, suggesting that the market has yet to establish a clear directional trend. A rise in open interest accompanied by a slight advantage for buyers is generally viewed as a constructive signal. However, the sustainability of this scenario depends on Bitcoin's ability to break above key resistance levels. Otherwise, the continued buildup of leveraged positions could increase the risk of widespread liquidations if the market moves against traders' expectations.
Written by Arab Chain

$BTC Long-Term Holders Are Returning to an Accumulation Phase
Data shows that the BTC LTH Accumulation & Distribution (30D) indicator is currently recording LTH Supply Inflow of around 220.4K BTC. This suggests that the amount of Bitcoin flowing into the Long-Term Holder cohort continues to outweigh the amount being distributed back to the market.
However, LTH accumulation does not necessarily mean the price will rise immediately. In previous cycles, long-term holder accumulation often took place while the market was still consolidating and needed more time to absorb short-term supply.
For $BTC, if LTH Supply Inflow continues to remain elevated while Outflow stays low, it would be a positive signal for the market's long-term supply structure.
Written by Rei Researcher

• The AVWAP anchored to the last lower high acted as resistance. It is currently at $66K.
• Jul 31, 2026. Supply in Loss: 10M BTC. After sellers regained control, SL rose to 10M BTC. This reflects clear on-chain pain among holders.
Written by Facundo Fama

Aggregate daily revenue generated by protocols on BNB Smart Chain climbed to approximately $2.25M on July 31, marking its highest level since a series of exceptional spikes recorded in January.
The last comparable readings appeared around January 11, 12 and 22, when daily revenue reached roughly $2.5M to $2.6M.
The move points to a sharp expansion in fee-generating activity across BNB Smart Chain protocols.
Possible contributors include increased decentralized trading, transfers, arbitrage, liquidations, smart-contract interactions or concentrated activity within one or several applications.
Revenue data alone, however, cannot identify the primary source of the increase or measure the total value of assets transferred.
The historical comparison may also attract market attention.
Extreme revenue spikes often coincide with periods of heightened speculative and transactional activity near potential market tops or bottoms.
The last comparable surge in BNB Smart Chain revenue occurred in January, when Bitcoin was trading above $94,000, before the market entered one of its largest corrections of the year and eventually fell toward $59,000.
The return of revenue to similar levels may therefore signal that the market is approaching another important turning point, though additional price, liquidity and on-chain indicators are required for confirmation.
At the same time, the Whales Screener chart , which tracks the netflow activity of more than 100 whale wallets, recorded a stablecoin net inflow of approximately $220 million to spot exchanges on July 29.
Two days later, the sample registered a Bitcoin net outflow of around $240 million.
Together, the readings suggest a period of significant network activity and possible liquidity repositioning.
Written by Amr Taha

Today’s BTC on-chain data suggests a neutral-to-cautious setup. Exchange inflows are adding spot-market pressure, while derivatives leverage remains contained.
On August 2, total exchange netflow recorded an inflow of approximately 1,175 BTC. Five consecutive days of net inflows now total roughly 14,336 BTC, increasing near-term sell-side risk.
Bitcoin open interest stands near $22.28 billion, up 0.47% daily and 0.54% weekly. It remains about 3.48% below its 30-day high, suggesting leverage has not expanded aggressively.
The funding rate is positive at 0.003804 but below its seven-day average of 0.005218. Long positioning still has a slight edge, without clear signs of overheating.
As a supplementary indicator, the Puell Multiple reached 0.8302 on August 1, up about 18.1% over seven days but still below 1. Miner conditions are improving, though not at levels associated with cycle overheating.
Repeated exchange inflows are the main short-term risk signal. Stable open interest and funding reduce the chance of an immediate liquidation cascade, while a sustained shift to outflows would weaken this cautious view.
Exchange flows point to possible short-term selling pressure, but derivatives remain relatively healthy. Confirming whether recent inflows turn into actual selling may be safer than taking an aggressive directional position.
Tomorrow, watch whether exchange inflows continue, large transfers repeat, and funding and open interest rise sharply together. Stablecoin liquidity and whale activity would help clarify spot demand and the nature of recent inflows.
Written by CoinNiel

Bitcoin’s Mayer-Puell Valuation Composite 7D fell below the key 20 threshold on July 2, reaching 15.77 and marking its third move into the historically undervalued zone since February 1.
Readings below 20 have often appeared during periods associated with potential major market bottoms or extended accumulation phases.
However, the latest signal was less extreme than the previous cycle low, when the composite fell to 1.76 on June 23, 2022—nearly five months before the collapse of FTX in November.
The timeline shows that Bitcoin had already entered the indicator’s deep undervaluation zone well before the FTX-related market disruption.
The indicator has since recovered to around 25.4, suggesting an initial exit from the undervalued zone.
This rebound does not confirm that Bitcoin has established a final price bottom, but it indicates that valuation pressure has eased from its early-July extreme.
The composite combines the Mayer Multiple, which compares Bitcoin’s price with its 200-day moving average, and the Puell Multiple, which evaluates miners’ daily revenue relative to its 365-day average.
It should not be used as a standalone trading signal and is best assessed alongside price structure, liquidity, market flows and derivatives data.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin closed at $62,763 on August 1, the lowest print in the two-week window and roughly 5.7% below the $66,520 high set on July 21. The price drift is modest. More notable is the supply composition beneath it.
Over the past week, inflows of coins aged 2–7 years rose sharply versus their quarterly baselines — the 3y–5y band up about 595% and the 5y–7y band about 1,016%. Spending showed the same pattern: 2y–3y and 3y–5y cohorts rose roughly 404% and 375%, equal to about $315M and $216M in realized value. These are small absolute figures from a low base, so the percentages overstate scale, but the direction is consistent across age bands.
The destination forms the second layer. Coinbase absorbed a disproportionate share: netflow rose roughly 1,423% versus its 90-day baseline, with 3y–5y inflows up about 1,014%. Binance, by contrast, saw steadier inflows — positive on 10 of the last 14 days, peaking at +3,289 BTC on July 31 — suggesting the aged-coin rotation may be venue-specific rather than broad-based selling.
A third piece sits alongside: the miner shutdown indicator has moved to 1, up 50% versus its monthly and 350% versus its quarterly baseline, pointing to marginal hash capacity operating below breakeven. Older-holder distribution alongside miner margin compression has historically been more common in later-stage corrections than early trend reversals.
The derivatives backdrop remains quiet, with Binance funding flat at 0.00–0.01, while the Coinbase Premium stayed between -0.09 and -0.14, its weakest stretch in two weeks.
Taken together, long-held supply is being released into a venue where US spot demand appears weak, without leverage amplifying the move. Historically, this mix has preceded extended consolidation more often than sharp breaks. The key variable now is whether aged-coin inflows fade or the Coinbase Premium strengthens enough to absorb them.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s Percent Unrealised Loss is 35.2%, meaning roughly 35% of the tracked supply is currently in unrealised loss.
The metric remains above 20%, but now sits below the >40% deep-stress band and well below the >60% capitulation-like zone.
The recent path is informative: it moved above 40% around the end of June, reaching 42.2%, then fell to 30.4% around July 21 before rebounding to 35.2%.
In prior major bear-market phases shown on the chart, the first test of the >40% zone was typically followed by stressed consolidation before the metric later moved toward or above 60%, where capitulation-like regimes tended to appear.
Key takeaway:
Underwater supply remains elevated, but the latest reading is below the deep-stress band. This is not capitulation-level stress on this metric yet. However, the >40% and >60% levels remain key watch zones.
Written by Zizcrypto

Crypto markets enter August with short-term weakness but relatively resilient long-term fundamentals. Bitcoin has sometimes failed to respond strongly despite continued ETF inflows, suggesting that spot demand remains fragile. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. interest rates, monetary policy, and regulation also remains a source of volatility.
At the same time, long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, exchange reserves are declining, and lower futures open interest suggests that excessive leverage has been reduced. The broader supply structure has therefore not materially deteriorated.
Rather than making a firm bullish or bearish call, portfolios should be designed to respond to both scenarios. BTC may remain a core asset, while ETH’s higher volatility should be considered. Stablecoins such as USDC can reduce price fluctuations and serve as reserve capital for gradual reallocation when conditions improve, although they also carry issuer, reserve, liquidity, regulatory, and depegging risks.
Key indicators include BTC exchange netflows and reserves, long-term holder balances, whale transfers, realized profits and losses, SOPR, MVRV, stablecoin supply, and exchange inflows. These should be assessed alongside ETF flows, spot demand, derivatives leverage, and U.S. monetary policy.
There is no universally correct allocation. The goal is not to predict the market perfectly, but to remain prepared for multiple outcomes.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets involve significant risks. Final investment decisions are your own responsibility.
Written by XWIN Japan

Bitcoin funding rates on Binance have climbed back into positive territory, reaching approximately 0.0084, their highest level in recent months.
Funding rates represent the balance between long and short positions in perpetual futures. A positive rate means long traders are paying shorts, indicating that bullish positions are becoming dominant.
Earlier this year, funding rates remained deeply negative during Bitcoin's sharp correction, reflecting widespread bearish sentiment. As the market stabilized, funding gradually recovered, and the latest reading suggests traders are once again positioning for further upside.
However, a positive funding rate should not automatically be interpreted as an immediate buy signal. Historically, excessively high funding rates can indicate overcrowded long positioning, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback or long liquidation event.
For now, the data suggest that market confidence has improved, but optimism has not yet reached the extreme levels typically seen near major market tops. If positive funding is accompanied by rising spot demand, ETF inflows, and healthy on-chain activity, it could provide a stronger foundation for Bitcoin's next upward move.
Funding rates remain one of the most important indicators for measuring derivatives market sentiment, making them a key metric to monitor in the weeks ahead.
Written by XWIN Japan

• Mature Blockchain.
• U.S. Congress: H.R. 3633 would define mature blockchain as "a blockchain system, together with its related digital commodity, that is not controlled by any person or group of persons under common control."
• Decentralization is not only a technical feature.
• Data source: CryptoQuant.
• Finally, to track institutional demand this year, I built a BTC and ETH dashboard in January using fund-related indicators. The link is included below.
Written by Facundo Fama

• Mature Blockchain.
• U.S. Congress: H.R. 3633 would define mature blockchain as "a blockchain system, together with its related digital commodity, that is not controlled by any person or group of persons under common control."
• Data source: CryptoQuant.
• Finally, to track institutional demand this year, I built a BTC and ETH dashboard in January using fund-related indicators. The link is included below.
Written by Facundo Fama

ETH is trading around $1,860–$1,870, roughly 17% below its realized price of $2,300–$2,304, the average on chain acquisition cost of all circulating ETH. Historically, extended periods below realized price have coincided with undervaluation and long term accumulation.
Exchange reserves also continue to decline. Total ETH held on centralized exchanges has dropped to around 15.1M, well below previous highs above 21M. Binance reserves have fallen from nearly 5M ETH in mid 2025 to about 3.8M ETH. Net flows remain largely negative, reflecting withdrawals into self custody or staking rather than exchange deposits. At the same time, staking participation is near record highs at 33.6–33.7% of total supply, further reducing liquid supply.
Relative to Bitcoin, the outlook is improving but remains incomplete. ETH/BTC MVRV has cooled from nearly 0.95 to around 0.65, exchange inflow ratios have eased, and several volume metrics have entered ranges seen near previous relative bottoms. ETF holdings have also begun to recover after a prolonged decline. However, CryptoQuant's framework shows that only two of five key bottoming signals have reached historical reversal extremes, while the remaining indicators continue to improve.
Key Takeaway
Trading below realized price, declining exchange reserves, and record staking participation suggest a tightening supply environment that has historically supported strong upside once demand returns. For now, ETH appears to be in a gradual accumulation phase rather than a fully confirmed cycle bottom. Continued reserve declines alongside renewed whale accumulation would provide stronger confirmation of a structural reversal.
Written by theophiluspep

Around $2.2B in net stablecoin outflows was recorded this month on Binance, which currently concentrates 70% of the stablecoin supply held on exchanges.
Since the start of the year, Binance has totaled $7B in net stablecoin outflows, confirming a sharp contraction in demand that has never really reversed over time.
When stablecoins leave exchanges this way, it suggests that liquidity continues to flee the crypto market rather than sitting idle awaiting redeployment.
Investors prefer to withdraw their funds, and exchanges see their stablecoin reserves shrink as demand keeps collapsing.
This behavior reflects persistent risk aversion rather than a simple rotation of capital between platforms.
Despite this, Bitcoin continues to hold above $60,000, amid a fairly tense geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop, showing a form of price resilience in the face of drying liquidity.
It will become important for the market to see demand renew quickly, otherwise the correction could continue.
Written by Darkfost

The CLARITY Act remains one of the most important cryptocurrency bills in the United States, but its future is becoming increasingly tied to politics rather than regulation alone.
With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, Republicans are eager to pass the bill before voters head to the polls. Enacting the legislation would allow them to highlight achievements such as clarifying crypto regulations, defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC, strengthening customer asset protection, and improving America's competitiveness in digital assets.
Democrats, however, are not broadly opposed to cryptocurrency. Instead, many lawmakers are calling for stronger ethics rules, enhanced consumer protection, tougher anti-money laundering (AML) measures, and greater oversight of government officials' potential conflicts of interest.
As Election Day approaches, bipartisan negotiations become increasingly difficult. If Republicans lose control of the House—or even the Senate—the bill could face significant revisions or delays. The most likely scenario today is a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, which would likely extend negotiations rather than end them.
Meanwhile, on-chain data tells a different story. Bitcoin active addresses remain close to one million, suggesting that network activity and user engagement remain strong despite political uncertainty.
For investors, the key is not simply whether the CLARITY Act passes, but what final form it takes. The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections may determine not whether crypto regulation exists, but how the next generation of U.S. digital asset regulation is ultimately designed.
Written by XWIN Japan

A low SSR is read as thick sidelined buying power. Whether that capital is genuinely sidelined, however, is not something the metric itself reveals.
A large share of the denominator has already been deployed elsewhere, and that share can be measured — not by purpose, but by position. Of $146.4B in stablecoin supply, exchange wallets hold $59.55B, or 40.7%. The remaining 59.3% sits off exchanges: in DeFi, in payment and transfer flows, in custody. Because SSR uses the entire denominator, it counts roughly 2.5x the immediately deployable capital as dry powder.
That share is not a constant. Since 2018 the exchange supply ratio has moved between 0.2 and 0.7 — a range wide enough that the same SSR reading points to two different markets depending on where in that range it was taken. A reading recorded when 70% of supply sat on exchanges and one recorded at 30% are not comparable quantities, even though the metric prints the same number. This is why lining today's SSR up against its historical levels does not hold as a like-for-like comparison.
None of this makes the metric wrong. It makes it incomplete on its own. Keeping the exchange supply ratio on the same screen as SSR restores the missing half of the reading: the position of the denominator matters before its size.
Next: what SSR looks like when the denominator is narrowed to exchange balances only.
Written by AbstractRyu