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Cryptos are the best
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This $ETH dump is nothing.
If you’re scared here…wait till this ponzi prints 3 digits.
This isn’t a reversal. This is just a pause before the next leg down
Buy the dip = exit liquidity. More carnage incoming.
The truth is "most of you are bullish because you’re trapped, not because the market is strong."
If you’re scared here…wait till this ponzi prints 3 digits.
This isn’t a reversal. This is just a pause before the next leg down
Buy the dip = exit liquidity. More carnage incoming.
The truth is "most of you are bullish because you’re trapped, not because the market is strong."
$BTC Huge buy signal here with OBD delta at highest level since 81k low in November last year.
Remember, this is lagging indicator.
Remember, this is lagging indicator.
Cathie Wood just called out Binance for causing the 10/10 crash.
CZ pushed back hard, saying their investigation found no core system outage.
Who do you believe? $BNB
CZ pushed back hard, saying their investigation found no core system outage.
Who do you believe? $BNB
Every cycle is the same.
Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high.
I don't try and time those bounces. I have tried before with mixed levels of success. Sometimes it works, other times I got rekt.
When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average.
Every cycle is eventually the same.
BTC topped when it always does (Q4 of the post-halving year), and so many have spent so many hours trying to convince you that it has not.
And BTC entered into a bear market, and so many have tried to get you to believe that alt season is "just around the corner" because it always happens after BTC tops. What they fail to account for is social interest. After the 2019 top there was also no rotation into altcoins, which also occurred just before QT ended.
I track the social interest in the asset class, and it has been trending down since 2021. There is no one new here for people to sell their altcoins to.
Alt seasons historically occur *after* social interest has been trending up for a year, not after it has been trending down for 5 years.
Have an actual plan on navigating this brutal asset class. Because if the altcoins you hold drop another 50%-80% from here, not a single influencer who promoted them will express an ounce of regret for it. And you will simply be living with the consequences.
I get a lot of hate for saying the truth, but an inconvenient truth is better than a lie.
$BTC
Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high.
I don't try and time those bounces. I have tried before with mixed levels of success. Sometimes it works, other times I got rekt.
When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average.
Every cycle is eventually the same.
BTC topped when it always does (Q4 of the post-halving year), and so many have spent so many hours trying to convince you that it has not.
And BTC entered into a bear market, and so many have tried to get you to believe that alt season is "just around the corner" because it always happens after BTC tops. What they fail to account for is social interest. After the 2019 top there was also no rotation into altcoins, which also occurred just before QT ended.
I track the social interest in the asset class, and it has been trending down since 2021. There is no one new here for people to sell their altcoins to.
Alt seasons historically occur *after* social interest has been trending up for a year, not after it has been trending down for 5 years.
Have an actual plan on navigating this brutal asset class. Because if the altcoins you hold drop another 50%-80% from here, not a single influencer who promoted them will express an ounce of regret for it. And you will simply be living with the consequences.
I get a lot of hate for saying the truth, but an inconvenient truth is better than a lie.
$BTC
My core guiding philosophy here is to "preserve, protect, and if possible grow my families investing capital."
That matters more than acquiring a certain number of BTC.
One is greed, the other is wisdom.
It's because I chose wisdom (very painfully, I might add), that I am positioned to be happy about the bear market.
Did you?
If not.... Will you from now on?
Step 1 of the Fin Sov Way: Repent of the Foolishness, Declare WAR on Chaos, Choose FinSov.
$BTC
That matters more than acquiring a certain number of BTC.
One is greed, the other is wisdom.
It's because I chose wisdom (very painfully, I might add), that I am positioned to be happy about the bear market.
Did you?
If not.... Will you from now on?
Step 1 of the Fin Sov Way: Repent of the Foolishness, Declare WAR on Chaos, Choose FinSov.
$BTC
US STOCKS ARE DUMPING.
SPX is down 0.95%, erasing about $580 billion in market value today.
Nasdaq is down 2.4%, wiping out roughly $1 trillion today.
Russell 2000 is down 2%, losing around $64 billion today.
Risk is being sold across the entire U.S. market at the same time.
$BTC
SPX is down 0.95%, erasing about $580 billion in market value today.
Nasdaq is down 2.4%, wiping out roughly $1 trillion today.
Russell 2000 is down 2%, losing around $64 billion today.
Risk is being sold across the entire U.S. market at the same time.
$BTC
Just opened a $500K $SOL short.
Liquidation is $125
If it hits my target I make $5M.
Sorry SOLANA fans, but it’s over 😎
Liquidation is $125
If it hits my target I make $5M.
Sorry SOLANA fans, but it’s over 😎
$BTC longs
Not adding back in, instead just closing the rest here, new lows likely
Good morning. Per last post, was looking to add back in what we took out at 76.7k upon further confirmation we would hold the silver pocket.
But since this is a countertrend long and I expect lower overall, we needed to see some very strong confirmation but instead we're seeing continued local spot selling aggressively as well as longing taking place in aggressive manner too with refusal to close as we move deeper here locally (delta going high instead of limit orders on long)
Not ideal as it takes away our "solo" aspect of this long in many ways as many are entering along here. I also don't like how the books are so empty and thin overall, generally don't like trades going against hoped direction for too long.
That's typical in bear markets and typical after my bullish bias is invalidated at 81k. So since this is a riskier long, just going to exit the other half early again here -2000 pts.
With the other half exited +500, that's an overall exit of -1250 pts so closing it for a small loss.
I am very aware that this could be a bad long close at a bad time and right before it goes up, and we're probably getting a bounce without too much lower.
But I'm keeping it very risk managed here, even if "almost every CME gap closes" even if the silver pocket is very strong after taking a major low for a bounce, and even if Monday range is "in play" (Monday range is still untapped), when bias is against your trade, many of those hold less weight and follow through hence why I always put more research into bias first before finding good entries.
Apologies for tight management, was still worth trying the long given all confluence, but when local order flow is against you on an already biased market against the trade, exits must be performed more aggressively.
Not adding back in, instead just closing the rest here, new lows likely
Good morning. Per last post, was looking to add back in what we took out at 76.7k upon further confirmation we would hold the silver pocket.
But since this is a countertrend long and I expect lower overall, we needed to see some very strong confirmation but instead we're seeing continued local spot selling aggressively as well as longing taking place in aggressive manner too with refusal to close as we move deeper here locally (delta going high instead of limit orders on long)
Not ideal as it takes away our "solo" aspect of this long in many ways as many are entering along here. I also don't like how the books are so empty and thin overall, generally don't like trades going against hoped direction for too long.
That's typical in bear markets and typical after my bullish bias is invalidated at 81k. So since this is a riskier long, just going to exit the other half early again here -2000 pts.
With the other half exited +500, that's an overall exit of -1250 pts so closing it for a small loss.
I am very aware that this could be a bad long close at a bad time and right before it goes up, and we're probably getting a bounce without too much lower.
But I'm keeping it very risk managed here, even if "almost every CME gap closes" even if the silver pocket is very strong after taking a major low for a bounce, and even if Monday range is "in play" (Monday range is still untapped), when bias is against your trade, many of those hold less weight and follow through hence why I always put more research into bias first before finding good entries.
Apologies for tight management, was still worth trying the long given all confluence, but when local order flow is against you on an already biased market against the trade, exits must be performed more aggressively.
$BTC - "bear market" spot plan
What to do with spot for the rest of the "bear market" and why it gets interesting again here
You may remember how I called my bullish bias invalid at 81k, expecting lower. And how it's good to sell some spot right at that point if you were positioned too early or didn't have the same initial entries at 21.5k per post 3 years ago.
But you may also remember how I don't think this won't be a deep bear market like the ones we have seen in the past.
I said this a few posts ago how I don't see us go down much further than 50%, which in $BTC terms is hard to call a "bear market" (see May/June/July 2021, new ath's were made).
Now that we're already 12% below bullish invalidation (which was quite a late invalidation), and overall down 42% overall from ath's, as well as getting closer to our purple POI, here's my plan on what I'm doing with it.
I usually don't share these types of positions all too extensively since spot buys don't require much management and are quite clear from my posts/can be mentioned in one or two lines.
But I hope keeping it more extensive helps you keep it level through what seems as "the end of bitcoin".
I understand your emotions but last time my bullish bias was invalidated about 7 years ago (I was one of those few 6k bulls back in 2018), it was also one of the best times to buy, after waiting for lower first.
At the time, we were seeing a lot of "mindless DCA strategies" or "risk adjusted DCA strategies" out there. Which, they have worked on $BTC in the past given it's general and strong upside nature.
But I find the psychological aspect of regular DCA-ing, not as appealing as pacing buys in a smart and patient way. Plus it also doesn't guarantee to be positioned in any significant position size way. (If you plan to take hundreds of entries, you may only hit one tiny size, having to add the other large majority higher later or never ending up being deployed at all).
So while the first local long in the non-bullish weekly environment since 81k, didn't work out, high timeframe, price below April 2025 is still a good high timeframe buy even if our purple POI is not hit yet.
Consequentially, here is the first buy and the outlines of my shared plan.
I repeat, this indeed isn't a "mindless DCA" or "risk adjusted DCA" plan (large amount of buys/high frequency hoping to get a good average).
This is a plan to take very few entries at good times, keeping that in mind when sizing.
Hope this helps you understand my overall view of not being bullish at the moment (bullish bias invalid), but not being overly bearish either on high timeframes
Just keeping it level, pacing spot buys and not getting high timeframe bearish in the classic "80%+ drawdown" sense.
You may remember how I called my bullish bias invalid at 81k, expecting lower. And how it's good to sell some spot right at that point if you were positioned too early or didn't have the same initial entries at 21.5k per post 3 years ago.
But you may also remember how I don't think this won't be a deep bear market like the ones we have seen in the past.
I said this a few posts ago how I don't see us go down much further than 50%, which in $BTC terms is hard to call a "bear market" (see May/June/July 2021, new ath's were made).
Now that we're already 12% below bullish invalidation (which was quite a late invalidation), and overall down 42% overall from ath's, as well as getting closer to our purple POI, here's my plan on what I'm doing with it.
I usually don't share these types of positions all too extensively since spot buys don't require much management and are quite clear from my posts/can be mentioned in one or two lines.
But I hope keeping it more extensive helps you keep it level through what seems as "the end of bitcoin".
I understand your emotions but last time my bullish bias was invalidated about 7 years ago (I was one of those few 6k bulls back in 2018), it was also one of the best times to buy, after waiting for lower first.
At the time, we were seeing a lot of "mindless DCA strategies" or "risk adjusted DCA strategies" out there. Which, they have worked on $BTC in the past given it's general and strong upside nature.
But I find the psychological aspect of regular DCA-ing, not as appealing as pacing buys in a smart and patient way. Plus it also doesn't guarantee to be positioned in any significant position size way. (If you plan to take hundreds of entries, you may only hit one tiny size, having to add the other large majority higher later or never ending up being deployed at all).
So while the first local long in the non-bullish weekly environment since 81k, didn't work out, high timeframe, price below April 2025 is still a good high timeframe buy even if our purple POI is not hit yet.
Consequentially, here is the first buy and the outlines of my shared plan.
I repeat, this indeed isn't a "mindless DCA" or "risk adjusted DCA" plan (large amount of buys/high frequency hoping to get a good average).
This is a plan to take very few entries at good times, keeping that in mind when sizing.
Hope this helps you understand my overall view of not being bullish at the moment (bullish bias invalid), but not being overly bearish either on high timeframes
Just keeping it level, pacing spot buys and not getting high timeframe bearish in the classic "80%+ drawdown" sense.
I plan to go heavily long Bitcoin soon.
Last 2 times $BTC got a blue diamond:
2020 ~ $9K to $69K
2023 ~ $23K to $125K
2026 ~ LOADING (IMO)
Trying to time the generational bottom.
Will update here the moment it appears...
Last 2 times $BTC got a blue diamond:
2020 ~ $9K to $69K
2023 ~ $23K to $125K
2026 ~ LOADING (IMO)
Trying to time the generational bottom.
Will update here the moment it appears...
$BTC update:
We're witnessing the first part of this new projection: the liquidity sweep of the previous low.
Longing this is risky, we all agree. It requires screen time, risk management and confidence.
This chart shows the safest way: wait for 1W candle close back above it.
We're witnessing the first part of this new projection: the liquidity sweep of the previous low.
Longing this is risky, we all agree. It requires screen time, risk management and confidence.
This chart shows the safest way: wait for 1W candle close back above it.
This week dump was completely orchestrated
I’ve been trading for 6 years and there was no sign of this coming
This is pure market manipulation
I’ve been trading for 6 years and there was no sign of this coming.
This is pure market manipulation.
ATH coming soon.
Know this.$BTC
I’ve been trading for 6 years and there was no sign of this coming
This is pure market manipulation
I’ve been trading for 6 years and there was no sign of this coming.
This is pure market manipulation.
ATH coming soon.
Know this.$BTC
$BTC
Pretty rare to leave such big gap on CME.
More likely than not we fill it within a week. Bounce soon imo.
Pretty rare to leave such big gap on CME.
More likely than not we fill it within a week. Bounce soon imo.
I'm going to hold this until it reaches $200,000 high.
Who is going to join me?
$BTC to +$200,000 sooner than u think
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Who is going to join me?
$BTC to +$200,000 sooner than u think
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
I'm going to hold this until it reaches $1 high.
Who is going to join me?
$ZKP to +$1 sooner than u think
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Who is going to join me?
$ZKP to +$1 sooner than u think
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
I'm going to hold this until it reaches $10 high.
Who is going to join me?
$ARC to +$10 sooner than u think
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Who is going to join me?
$ARC to +$10 sooner than u think
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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