CryptoQuant Quicktake

A 2026 survey by Nomura Holdings and Laser Digital shows a clear shift in institutional sentiment toward crypto. Positive views rose to 31% (from 25% in 2024), while negative responses fell to 18%, suggesting improving confidence beyond price action.

Importantly, 65% of respondents view crypto as a diversification tool, and 79% of those considering investment plan to allocate within three years. Expected allocations are mainly in the 2–5% range, indicating crypto’s positioning as a satellite asset.

This trend is supported by the perception of low correlation with traditional assets. Research (NBER, IMF) suggests crypto offers unique risk-return characteristics, making it useful for portfolio diversification, though not a perfect hedge.

However, on-chain data indicates that real demand is still developing. The Fund Flow Ratio remains low (around 0.03), showing limited exchange activity despite high prices. This suggests reduced speculative trading and a preference for holding.

In essence, institutional participation appears to be in a preparation phase rather than full deployment. The market structure reflects low turnover and supply compression, with long-term holders dominating.

Barriers persist, including unclear valuation frameworks, counterparty risk, volatility, and regulation. In Japan, the lack of a domestic spot ETF remains a constraint.

Still, momentum is building. Interest in staking, lending, and tokenized assets is expanding, alongside stablecoin use for treasury and payments.

The market is entering a “pre-adoption” phase. Institutions are preparing, not deciding. Once infrastructure aligns, even a small allocation could reshape the market.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

In the previous analysis, a key idea was raised: the bullish move lacked structural consistency, as it was primarily driven by the futures market rather than real demand in the spot market.

Recent market behavior is not only consistent with that view, but actively validates it.

Price has retraced from recent highs, while Open Interest has declined significantly (~$27B → ~$24B), clearly reflecting a reduction in derivatives exposure.

This type of dynamic does not indicate aggressive selling pressure, but rather a structural process of:

Long position closures

Reduction of exposure in derivatives

Progressive market deleveraging

Additionally, the 1H heatmap analysis, based on TradingDifferent visual data, shows no significant contiguous liquidity zones. This suggests that the move has not been driven by liquidity hunting, but by capital outflows.

A particularly relevant data point reinforces this interpretation: Funding Rates remain slightly positive.

This implies that:

There is no aggressive bearish dominance

Shorts are not leading the move

The market is not attacking to the downside, but rather reducing risk

Conclusion:

The market is correcting a previous move driven by leverage, not by structural demand.

This behavior should not be interpreted as an aggressive bearish shift, but rather as the materialization of previously identified fragility: a move built on derivatives tends to lose consistency once leverage is removed.

In this context, the price decline is not the origin of the problem, but the consequence of a previously weak structure.

Carmelo Alemán | On-Chain Analyst | Verified on CryptoQuant

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For collaborations, questions, or feedback, feel free to reach out.

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

After going through a series of recent challenges, including the departure of key contributors such as BGD Labs and Chaos Labs, Aave finds itself once again under pressure.

A major incident has affected the ecosystem through an exploit involving rsETH used as collateral on Aave, enabling an attacker to extract approximately $250M. This was not a direct vulnerability in the Aave protocol itself, but rather an issue tied to an asset accepted as collateral. In such setups, the deterioration of a single collateral asset can trigger cascading effects across the system, including bad debt risks.

Market reaction was swift and severe. A broad wave of panic led many users to withdraw their funds, resulting in a significant contraction in TVL, estimated at around $7B over the course of the day.

This loss of confidence was also visible in Aave inflows to exchanges, which spiked sharply. Given its deep liquidity, these inflows were largely concentrated on Binance. While the monthly average sits around 31,000 AAVE, the platform recorded more than 236,000 AAVE, representing roughly $21M at this stage.

In total, cumulative inflows across exchanges exceeded 355,000 AAVE, or approximately $32M.

Against this backdrop, the AAVE token experienced a sharp correction of around -15% on the day, reflecting both system-wide stress among investors and a clear deterioration in sentiment toward the protocol.

Written by Darkfost

On April 12, 2026, Ethereum’s daily transaction count recorded a massive new all-time high, surpassing 3.61 million transactions. Interestingly, this surge in network activity coincides with a significant macroeconomic price pullback. Since reaching local highs of around 4,700 USD in October, ETH has corrected downwards, trading in the 2,000 USD to 2,400 USD range.

This stark divergence between price action and network utility is a strong fundamental indicator. While retail price speculation has cooled off, actual usage of the Ethereum blockchain has skyrocketed. This spike in transactions is likely driven by increased layer-2 settlements and smart contract activity.

Historically, when fundamental network growth outpaces price action, it signals an accumulation phase where the asset may be fundamentally undervalued. Investors should watch this metric closely, as sustained high activity levels often precede long-term price recoveries.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin is trading today at $74,871.11. Despite the slight intraday retracement of -1.19%, the weekly performance accumulates a solid +5.19%. For the common investor, the slightest noise generates anxiety; for institutional analysis, it generates opportunity. Furthermore, knowing that those who dictate the market's direction are the large investors, we also know that the true story is not in the price itself, but in the anatomy of the liquidity flow.

INSTITUTIONAL ABSORPTION

After tracking the movement in the global market through the Bitcoin: OTC vs Exchange Dominance Share (24H%) indicator, we identified that, in the last 24 hours, the network settled a massive Notional Value of $20.5 billion. Where did this money operate? The dominance metric shows that a colossal 88.93% was absorbed in the over-the-counter market (OTC Share). Exchange liquidity has remained dry, with only 11.07%. Within this exposed slice, Coinbase (45.54%) surpassed Binance (40.28%), stamping the dominance premium of the American Smart Money. And what enters Binance? Pure noise: through the BTC: Exchange Inflow Age Bands % - Binance - w/ ELR indicator, we obtain a record where 98.92% of the deposits have less than 24 hours of life. Zero long-term pressure.

CAPITULATION

This brings us to a warning sign that, to some extent, can be considered — with caution — optimistic on our dashboard: BTC: Sell-Side Demographics (LTH vs STH Inflows) 24H. With an inflow volume of 7,006 BTC, the demographics of who is selling is brutal: an impressive 99.23% of the flow (STH Share) comes from weak hands — and, as the expression itself suggests, they do not have the strength to dictate the market's direction. In absolute contrast, the Smart Money remains inert, with the LTH Share registering a minuscule 0.77%. Can we expect a larger correction? Yes, but according to these metrics, it should not go very far.

CONCLUSION

Institutions absorb the supply and make it clear in which direction the market will head.

Written by GugaOnChain

Since the October 2025 top, both Bitcoin and altcoins have undergone a significant correction. Total 3, which represents the market capitalization of the altcoin sector (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins), has lost nearly $460B over the period, or around 38% of its value.

Nevertheless, since February, Total 3 has recovered approximately $90B, despite a tense geopolitical backdrop and a macroeconomic environment that continues to restrict available liquidity.

This improvement is visible on the chart, which shows the percentage of altcoins listed on Binance trading below their weekly 50 moving average. This is a key level widely used by investors in technical analysis, as it often acts as an important support or resistance when price approaches it.

After reaching 89% of altcoins on Binance trading below this level in early February, that figure has now fallen to 67%, although they still remain below this average.

This suggests an early return of interest in altcoins. After a broad market correction, some investors appear to be gradually increasing exposure again.

However, caution remains important. Liquidity is still constrained, while the number of cryptocurrencies has surged sharply.

Today, there are around 49 million cryptocurrencies, including 4.78 million on BNB Smart Chain, 19 million on Base, and more than 22 million on Solana, making asset selection far more complex and critical.

Written by Darkfost

XRP data on Binance indicates a discrepancy between price action and liquidity flows, behavior According to the latest data, XRP is trading at around $1.44, suggesting a relative recovery after a period of decline. However, it remains within a cautious range and has not yet confirmed the start of a strong upward trend.

Conversely, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator is registering a negative value of approximately -7.18 million, reflecting the continued dominance of sell orders over buy orders in the market. This is a significant signal, as it suggests that the current price increase is not supported by strong buying flows, but may instead be driven by temporary factors or a reduction in selling pressure rather than genuine demand strength.

The 30-day price–CVD correlation index stands at around 0.61, a relatively positive reading that indicates an improving relationship between price action and liquidity flows. This suggests that the market is beginning to regain balance, with price movements becoming more aligned with underlying liquidity dynamics compared to previous periods.

This divergence between rising prices and weak CVD reflects a transitional phase in the market, where the overall direction remains uncertain. On one hand, there are positive signals in the form of price stabilization and improving correlation; on the other hand, persistent selling pressure continues to limit the strength of any potential upward move.

Written by Arab Chain

The Bitcoin Composite Index (BCI), which combines NUPL and MVRV, remains above the key bottoming level at 1.0.

It captures both unrealized profit/loss and relative valuation, offering a broader view of market stress across the cycle.

Historically, the strongest accumulation phases formed when BCI moved deeply below 1.0, reflecting periods of extreme market stress and deeply negative unrealized losses.

While the index has declined from elevated levels, it has not yet entered the range typically seen during major bottom formation.

This suggests normalization rather than capitulation, with deeper stress still needed before a structural bottom forms.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto

Following Bitcoin’s drop from its 127,000 peak in October to a 63,000 low in February, the price has recovered to the 75,000 zone as of mid-April. However, on-chain data reveals a critical signal. On April 14, the Exchange Inflow CDD for Binance reached its highest level since early 2023, recording a massive spike of approximately 2,594,392.

This historic surge coincides exactly with the recent price recovery, strongly suggesting that long-term holders are moving dormant coins to exchanges to secure profits. Such behavior introduces significant potential selling pressure, establishing a formidable resistance barrier around the 75,000 mark. Traders are advised to exercise caution and monitor the market closely for incoming volatility.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Bitcoin shows a notable shift in market behavior, reflecting a clear improvement in investor sentiment and a rise in unrealized profits. According to the data, the indicator has risen over the past two days to its highest level since the end of January, strongly indicating a return of positive market momentum.

The indicator recorded a reading of approximately 0.29, coinciding with Bitcoin trading near the $77,000 level. This places the market in what is commonly known as the "belief" phase—a stage that often precedes stronger upward moves, but may also signal the beginning of a gradual profit-taking phase.

This rise comes after a period of volatility and relative decline since the beginning of February, suggesting that the market has successfully regained its balance and established a strong support base before resuming its upward trajectory. This movement also reflects an influx of new liquidity and renewed buying interest from both individual and institutional investors.

In its current state, the NUPL indicator reflects a market inclined toward optimism, supported by rising unrealized profits and growing investor confidence. If this trend continues, the market may be at the beginning of a new upward phase; however, caution is warranted regarding any potential reversal signals.

Written by Arab Chain

The Cointime Economics thesis teaches that coins do not leave cold wallets without a clear reason. With Bitcoin at the $75,872 mark, the BTC: Active Supply vs. Net Inflow indicator flashes a market structure alert: part of the network took advantage of the recent rally and allocated capital toward aggressive profit-taking.

THE INDICATOR DYNAMICS

Who forms this Active Supply? The filter excludes exchanges and miners, isolating only the Smart Money: wallets with more than 100 transactions per month. The alert rule sums the deposits into exchanges and divides them by this Active Supply, revealing the exact percentage of institutional capital focused on liquidation.

THE ANATOMY OF REALIZATION

Through the indicator, we recorded 134.1k addresses in the Active Supply cohort. The strength of the movement is validated by moving averages: the current data directionally broke both the SMA-7 (132.2k) and the SMA-14 (131.5k), confirming an atypical and accelerated peak in movement. The institutional vault has been opened.

TRACKING THE INTENT

The gravity is revealed in the destination of the capital: 58k addresses depositing into OKX and 28.1k into Binance. Applying the indicator's rule, more than 64% (86.1k out of 134.1k, approx. $6.5 billion) of all relevant institutional activity was directed to these exchanges. It is a lethal correlation: Smart Money moved funds to capture the liquidity generated by the $78K euphoria.

CONCLUSION

Part of the market prices in a structural search for profit, discarding scenarios of accumulation or DeFi. With Active Supply accelerating above averages in sync with deposits from market giants, the probability of a supply shock and strong correction is extremely high. For those betting on an upward move with a short-term focus, the current structure demands immediate capital protection.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Cointime Economics thesis teaches that coins do not leave cold wallets without a clear reason. With Bitcoin at the $75,872 mark, the BTC: Active Supply vs. Net Inflow indicator flashes a market structure alert: part of the network took advantage of the recent rally and allocated capital toward aggressive profit-taking.

THE INDICATOR DYNAMICS

Who forms this Active Supply? The filter excludes exchanges and miners, isolating only the Smart Money: wallets with more than 100 transactions per month. The alert rule sums the deposits into exchanges and divides them by this Active Supply, revealing the exact percentage of institutional capital focused on liquidation.

THE ANATOMY OF REALIZATION

Through the indicator, we recorded 134.1k addresses in the Active Supply cohort. The strength of the movement is validated by moving averages: the current data directionally broke both the SMA-7 (132.2k) and the SMA-14 (131.5k), confirming an atypical and accelerated peak in movement. The institutional vault has been opened.

TRACKING THE INTENT

The gravity is revealed in the destination of the capital: 58k addresses depositing into OKX and 28.1k into Binance. Applying the indicator's rule, more than 64% (86.1k out of 134.1k, approx. $6.5 billion) of all relevant institutional activity was directed to these exchanges. It is a lethal correlation: Smart Money moved funds to capture the liquidity generated by the $78K euphoria.

CONCLUSION

The market is pricing in a structural search for profit, discarding accumulation or DeFi scenarios. With Active Supply accelerating above the averages in sync with deposits from market giants, the probability of a supply shock and a sharp correction is extremely high. For those betting on the long side with a short-term focus, the current structure demands immediate capital protection.

Written by GugaOnChain

Throughout this entire cycle, Ethereum has faced unusually heavy selling pressure on derivatives markets.

Net taker volume, which measures the difference between buy and sell market order volumes in the order book on derivatives exchanges, remained almost consistently negative.

This was particularly visible when ETH attempted to break into a new all time high above $4,000 in December 2024. At that time, net taker volume fell to -$511 million.

It became even more extreme when ETH later printed its all time high just below $5,000, as sell-side pressure heavily dominated with -$568 million in net taker volume.

Today, however, the dynamic looks very different.

Since March, buy-side volumes have finally taken control, with +$102 million recorded today.

The last time Ethereum saw such a strong level of buying pressure on derivatives markets was during the previous bear market in 2022, when ETH was trading around the $1,000 area.

This shift suggests that market positioning may be changing materially. After a cycle largely defined by aggressive sell pressure into strength, buyers now appear increasingly willing to absorb supply and chase upside. If this trend persists, it could mark the early stages of a stronger structural recovery for Ethereum.

If this trend manages to persist and buyers continue to absorb selling pressure, it could mark the early stages of a stronger structural recovery for Ethereum.

Written by Darkfost

The 365-day Simple Moving Average of Ethereum Exchange Netflow on Binance has recently plummeted to its lowest level since May 2024, considering the current market conditions in April 2026.

Historically, this specific metric has acted as a highly reliable leading indicator for major macroeconomic price movements. As visible on the chart, previous instances where the yearly moving average of netflow reached extreme bottoms and subsequently began to reverse upwards perfectly coincided with the inception of massive Ethereum bull rallies.

This repeating pattern strongly suggests an ongoing accumulation phase. When netflows hit extreme lows on a long-term moving average, it typically indicates that investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges for long-term holding, thereby drastically reducing immediate sell pressure in the market. If historical trends are to repeat, the current bottoming out could be the fundamental groundwork for the next major upward macro trend for Ethereum. Market participants should closely monitor this metric for a decisive upward pivot as a confirmation of a new bullish cycle.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The STH SOPR, shown here as a monthly average to highlight the underlying trend, is once again about test the break-even level (SOPR = 1)

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is an indicator that measures the profit or loss ratio realized when a UTXO is spent.

This means that following BTC’s recent price recovery, now up +26% since its February 6 low, STHs are facing an important decision as STH SOPR reached 0.998 :

• Exit the market at break-even after months of pain

• Continue holding in hopes of realizing profits

If SOPR manages to sustainably move back above 1, it would indicate that STHs are once again realizing profits, which is generally positive for the market as long as values do not become excessive.

The last time we saw an improvement in SOPR, the move was abruptly stopped just as SOPR was barely moving above 0.995.

When compared with the previous bear market, a similar setup occurred four times before the trend definitively reversed and a new sustainable bullish phase began.

In the current environment, it is important to closely monitor STH behavior in order to anticipate the next market move.

Written by Darkfost

The chart shows strong activity from retail participants, but this type of inflow alone cannot drive the price. It mainly generates volume. Transfers in the 10K–100K XRP range have a neutral impact on price.

Transfers above 100K and 1M XRP increase significantly during certain periods. However, the lack of consistency suggests that whales are not acting in a stable manner. In other words, there is no clear directional pressure in the market.

There is no clear correlation between price and inflows. When inflows increase, the price does not always decline. Likewise, when inflows weaken, the price does not necessarily rise. This indicates that not all incoming coins are being sold, or that there is sufficient liquidity absorbing the supply.

At the current stage, this chart suggests there is no strong selling pressure, liquidity remains balanced, and price is not being dominated by inflows. In other words, the main drivers of price are likely derivatives market dynamics and the broader market trend.

Based on this data, if spot buying strengthens, the price could move sharply upward.

Written by PelinayPA

The Ethereum: Metcalfe Divergence indicator reveals the formation of a true organic "Launchpad". Unlike exhaustion scenarios, where the asset advances amid the emptying of the network, ETH rises (+5.2% for the week) anchored by strong real traction. The number of Highly Active Addresses (2.3669k) directionally crossed its short-term moving averages (SMA-7: 2.3388k and SMA-14: 2.3332k). Adoption advances faster than the price, proving that the impulse has organic fuel and validates Metcalfe's Law in practice.

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESET

The downside asymmetry risk is negligible. The current price ($2,358) is strategically close to the Realized Price ($2,308), the concrete floor of the market. Complementing this solid mathematical defense, the NUPL marking 0.046 (only 4.6% of unrealized profit) consolidates a profound psychological reset: there is no scenario of euphoria or investors with gigantic profits about to execute a mass dump on the network.

EXCHANGE FLOW

This retention gains the endorsement of the Interacted with Exchange Cohort. The Binance (2.3254k) and OKX User Deposit Address (2.8042k) metrics register a drought of direct deposits. Even with the recovery, investors are not moving ETH to the market giants aiming for liquidation, shielding the asset against immediate supply shocks.

CONCLUSION

The market defends the network's fair price, with no speculative fat to be burned. With a total absence of bearish divergence, accelerating on-chain adoption, and the deposit flow contained across major exchanges, the data validates the purest bullish structure. What we see is Ethereum preparing its impulse ground in an undeniable way.

Written by GugaOnChain

Despite a 2.66% price decline on the candlestick chart, multiple on-chain metrics and technical indicators are painting a strongly bullish picture for Ethereum.

Technical Analysis:

The Point and Figure (PnF) chart has confirmed a Double Top Buy signal — a classic bullish breakout pattern that historically precedes significant upward price movement. This signal combined with the current price dip suggests smart money accumulation is underway.

On-Chain Analysis:

Exchange reserves have decreased significantly indicating investors are moving ETH to cold wallets reducing available selling supply. Exchange net flow remains negative confirming more ETH is leaving exchanges than entering — a clear accumulation signal.

Ethereum block size has surged 34% reflecting extraordinary growth in network activity and demand for ETH block space. While net flow showed a slight 6% increase suggesting minor selling pressure the overall on-chain data remains overwhelmingly bullish.

Conclusion:

The convergence of a PnF Double Top Buy signal declining exchange reserves negative net flow and 34% block size increase strongly suggests the current price decline is a temporary dip and accumulation opportunity. Medium to long term outlook for ETH remains strongly bullish.

Written by Abdullah Zia

Bitcoin’s recent move continues to show a market structure primarily dominated by derivatives. On **April 17**, BTC futures short liquidations reached **$525.872 million**. In addition, **$453.930 million** of that total was concentrated between **13:00 and 15:00 UTC**, accounting for **86.32%** of all liquidations recorded during that window. At the same time, long liquidations rose to **$213.118 million**, bringing total BTC liquidations to **$738.990 million**.

However, the most relevant point is not just the magnitude of the liquidations, but what they reveal about the market’s structure. Since **April 13**, futures volume increased from **$23.438 billion** to **$24.881 billion**, a rise of **6.16%**. Over the same period, spot volume increased from **50,216 BTC** to **54,590 BTC**, equivalent to a gain of **8.71%**.

At first glance, spot grew more in percentage terms. But in absolute terms, futures clearly remain dominant. If we convert the **54,590 BTC** using an approximate closing price of **$77,089** per BTC, spot volume amounts to roughly **$4.208 billion**, compared with **$24.881 billion** traded in futures. This means derivatives volume was approximately **5.91 times larger** than spot volume.

As a result, futures accounted for about **85.53%** of the combined volume between both markets, while spot represented only **14.47%**. This difference confirms that, although spot accompanied the move, the true operational weight of the market remained concentrated in derivatives.

The structural reading is clear: unless spot gains a larger relative share in price formation, any BTC advance will remain more vulnerable to episodes of volatility, fragility, and leverage-driven reversals.

**Carmelo Alemán | On-Chain Analyst | Verified at CryptoQuant**

Connect with me:

♦️ X: @oro_crypto

♦️ LinkedIn: Carmelo Alemán

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♦️ Email: carmeloaleman@orocrypto.es

For collaborations, questions, or feedback—feel free to get in touch.

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

As negotiations between Iran and the U.S. had reportedly made significant progress, Iran announced yesterday the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels.

The announcement had an immediate impact on financial markets, particularly on derivatives markets.

This renewed confidence led some investors to quickly and aggressively position long on Ethereum.

Taker Buy Volume, which tracks market buy orders on derivatives markets, surged sharply during the hour following the announcement.

Binance alone recorded more than $1.72B in Ethereum derivatives buy volume within a single hour, making the figure particularly notable.

The price rally that followed then triggered a significant short squeeze on Binance, further amplifying the upward move initially created by aggressive buying activity.

During that same hour, roughly $24M in short positions were liquidated almost instantly, highlighting how fast and powerful the move was.

It is also worth noting that funding rates were deeply negative at -0.004%, indicating that the majority of investors were positioned short on Ethereum at the time.

More broadly, this reflects how sensitive investors currently are to headlines and developments related to the conflict between Iran and the U.S.

That sensitivity tends to make markets increasingly unstable and erratic, making aggressive leverage particularly dangerous, as seen during this move.

Written by Darkfost