CryptoQuant Quicktake

Analyzing Bitcoin open interest across exchanges highlights how severely the derivatives market has contracted since the last all time high and the October 10 sell off. Speculation during this cycle reached unprecedented levels, and both novice and professional investors have paid the price.

For comparison, on Binance, Bitcoin denominated open interest reached 94 300 BTC shortly after the November 2021 peak. In October 2025, when BTC marked its market top, open interest climbed to 120 000 BTC. Across all exchanges combined, open interest stood at 221 000 BTC in April 2024 versus 381 000 BTC at the cycle peak.

The derivatives market was definitely a primary driver during this cycle, but it has also become a key force behind the decline.

The chart illustrates the average monthly percentage change in open interest.

Since the latest market top, open interest has decreased almost every month. Between October 06 and October 11 alone, open interest on Binance dropped by 20.8%, while the sharpest contractions were recorded on Bybit and Gate.io, each showing declines of 37%. This decline has persisted in nearly every subsequent month, signaling a sustained and progressively intensifying contraction.

Even now, open interest continues to fall, with Binance down another 39.3%. This is not surprising given that the platform still holds the largest share of total open interest. The trend is broadly shared across the market, with Bybit posting a 33% decline and BitMEX down 24%.

Overall, this environment indicates that investors are actively reducing exposure, cutting risk, or being forced out through liquidations driven by ongoing volatility. Under these conditions, it is difficult to envision Bitcoin stabilizing sustainably and reigniting a bullish trend in the short term.

Written by Darkfost

Status Summary:

The 30-day Netflow data on Binance reveals a critical divergence in asset movement. While stablecoins and Ethereum are fleeing the exchange, Bitcoin is experiencing net inflows, painting a complex picture for market sentiment.

Key Data Points:

Massive Liquidity Drain (Stablecoins):

A staggering total of roughly $6.7 Billion in stablecoins ($5.3B USDT and $1.4B USDC) has left Binance over the last month. This substantial outflow signals a significant reduction in “Buying Power” (Dry Powder) on the exchange, potentially weakening support walls against downward volatility.

BTC vs. ETH Divergence:

Bitcoin (BTC): In stark contrast to stablecoins, Binance recorded a Net Inflow of $1.67 Billion in BTC. Rising exchange reserves for Bitcoin are typically bearish, suggesting potential selling pressure or increased collateralization for derivatives.

Ethereum (ETH): Conversely, ETH saw a Net Outflow of $1.0 Billion, indicating strong accumulation behavior and a supply shock as coins move to cold storage or staking contracts.

Conclusion:

The combination of shrinking stablecoin liquidity and rising Bitcoin reserves presents a cautious setup for BTC price action in the short term. However, the data remains bullish for Ethereum, driven by persistent accumulation and withdrawal from the exchange.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Binance’s XRP reserve is currently around 2.57B XRP. Both the SMA(50) and SMA(100) are sloping downward. The spot reserve has clearly been in a declining trend recently. Although there are small short-term upward reactions, the overall direction remains downward.

➡️ XRP is being withdrawn from exchanges.

➡️ Sell side ready supply is decreasing.

➡️ Spot market liquidity is tightening.

Technically, this structure signals a supply squeeze. The price is currently around $1.4. After a sharp decline, it is trading near a bottom region. What’s important is that the price has fallen while reserves have also been declining. Normally, a drop in exchange reserves is considered positive for price. However, the price is still down. This suggests that while spot supply is decreasing, derivatives pressure has been stronger.

In other words, the selling pressure is not coming from the spot market. It is more likely driven by leveraged positioning and risk off behavior in the market, with XRP being withdrawn to private wallets.

If reserves continue to fall but demand does not return, the price may continue its downward trend until it finds a clear accumulation zone. Considering that Binance is the primary venue for whales and institutional participants, the fact that these reserve outflows have not yet impacted price is a notable development.

In summary, reserves are declining while price remains near the lows. This structure increases the probability of a potential short squeeze scenario ahead.

Written by PelinayPA

Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, known as whales, currently hold 4.483M BTC as of February 16, 2026.

Distribution:

STH Whales (New Whales) (-155 days holding BTC): 1.287M BTC → 28.7%

LTH Whales (Old Whales) (+155 days holding BTC): 3.196M BTC → 71.3%

Although STH whales have shown recent balance increases based on monthly metrics, structural dominance remains with LTH whales, which control over 70% of this cohort’s supply.

The decisive element emerges when analyzing the Realized Price (on-chain average cost basis) of each group:

Realized Price STH whales: $88,494

Realized Price LTH whales: $41,626

Current price: $68,795

This implies that short-term whales are sitting on roughly a -22% unrealized loss, while long-term whales maintain a profit margin near +65%.

The asymmetry is clear: recent capital is under pressure, while structural capital retains a wide profitability cushion.

Risk emerges when price declines sharply; in that context, STH whales tend to capitulate and realize losses, as seen in the latest Realized Profits chart.

These realized losses among STH whales have increased since Bitcoin’s last ATH in October. As price corrected from those highs, newer capital began materializing deeper losses, generating increasingly negative spikes.

Historically, similar configurations (2019 and 2022) reflected internal redistribution phases, where supply migrated from lower-conviction holders toward resilient entities.

The critical variable is the LTH Realized Price ($41.6K): as long as price remains above that level, structural capitulation cannot be declared. Only a sustained breakdown below it would imply that even the most resilient capital is entering macro stress.

What we are observing is not structural capitulation, but a redistribution of BTC from recent capital toward higher-conviction holders. As long as $41.6K holds, the market is transferring conviction, not destroying it.

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

Whale flow data on Binance’s XRP Ledger provides a detailed picture of large portfolio behavior in recent weeks and how this activity correlates with XRP’s price movement. The indicator is based on the 30-day moving average of total large transfers to Binance, along with the average price, offering a valuable tool for understanding supply and demand dynamics from the perspective of major market participants.

Total whale flows (30DMA) reached approximately 82.1 million XRP, while the average price of XRP is trading near $1.47. This level of flows is the highest since last December, reflecting a clear return of activity from large portfolios after a period of relative calm.

After a surge in December, flows entered a downward trend and stabilized for a period within a range of approximately 50–60 million XRP, coinciding with a phase of price consolidation. This behavior reflects a decrease in direct selling pressure and the absence of large-scale selling waves from major holders.

The return of inflows to the 80+ million XRP range strengthens the likelihood of the market entering a new repositioning phase, whether in preparation for selling or shifting liquidity ahead of larger price movements. From an analytical perspective, if this increase is accompanied by weak immediate demand, further downward pressure on price may emerge. However, if the price manages to stabilize despite the increased inflows, it could indicate that the market has absorbed the available supply and is beginning to establish a price base.

Written by Arab Chain

This marks the third consecutive month in which stablecoin netflows on Binance have remained in negative territory, signaling a persistent contraction in the liquidity available across the crypto market.

The last time this happened was during the 2023 bear market.

When outflows dominate, especially on a major platform like Binance that concentrates a significant share of market liquidity, it reflects a genuine phase of investor de risk positioning. In other words, capital is gradually leaving the exchange ecosystem rather than being redeployed within it.

In December, monthly net stablecoin outflows on Binance had already reached around -$1,8B. This dynamic intensified significantly in January, with nearly -$2,9B in net outflows. February continues along the same trajectory, with almost -$3B in recorded outflows even though only half of the month has passed.

At the same time, stablecoin reserves held on Binance have declined sharply. Since November, they have fallen from approximately $50,9B to $41,8B, representing a contraction of nearly $9B over the period. This sustained drop in reserves points to weakening demand and a more defensive repositioning by investors.

Against a backdrop of elevated global uncertainty, fueled by a hard to read macroeconomic environment and rising geopolitical tensions, these outflows signal a growing willingness to reduce risk exposure. Market participants appear to be favoring a wait and see approach, which mechanically weighs on liquidity and on the overall market dynamic.

Written by Darkfost

Recent on-chain data shows a notable increase in inflows to Accumulation Addresses for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. These addresses represent long-term holders who meet strict criteria: no recent outflows, multiple purchase events, minimum balance thresholds, and exclusion of exchanges and miners. In short, they reflect strategic capital rather than short-term speculation.

What stands out is the timing. Inflows are accelerating while prices are correcting and market sentiment remains fragile. Historically, such divergence between price weakness and long-term accumulation has marked periods of structural supply transfer. Coins move from emotionally driven sellers to patient holders with extended time horizons.

It is important to note that rising accumulation does not guarantee an immediate bottom. Market bottoms are processes, not events. However, sustained inflows into long-term addresses reduce liquid supply over time and strengthen the market’s structural base.

From a behavioral finance perspective, markets often reward those who act counter to prevailing emotion. Fear dominates price action, but structural capital focuses on time, not headlines. When panic intensifies and volatility rises, disciplined investors gradually build positions.

Short-term traders move prices. Long-term holders shape cycles. The current rise in accumulation suggests that beneath visible volatility, a quiet absorption phase may be unfolding.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

📰 Daily Market Update:

Multiple major liquidation events hit XRP derivative positions starting from February 5, with late buyers being the primary ones caught .

📊 [XRP] Exchange Liquidation Metrics

The XRP Exchange Liquidation Metrics chart tracks forced liquidations of both long and short derivative positions across major exchanges.

This dataset offers a clear view into where traders are getting squeezed out of the market, and who is paying the price for poor timing.

🔬 Key Observation

💥 February 5 – Double Long Liquidation Event

* First event: > $8M longs liquidated, with Binance accounting for $1.19M once price touched $1.35.

* Second event: > $4M longs liquidated, with Binance accounting for $1.1M once price hit $1.18.

📅 On Feb 15, another double liquidation wave occurred, again targeting longs near $1.54.

These repeated liquidation clusters highlight how aggressive leverage among buyers often ends in sharp losses when price retraces.

📊 XRP Liquidation Heatmap – Liquidity as a Magnet 🧲

* The Liquidation Heatmap illustrates where leveraged capital is concentrated across price levels.

* When price approaches these zones, liquidity behaves like a magnet, pulling price toward it to trigger stop-outs and margin calls.

* Current data suggests that long liquidation pools have been almost fully cleared.

* Meanwhile, short-side liquidity clusters are now dominating above current price levels, extending up toward the $2.2 region.

🧠 Final Conclusion

Sharp long liquidations typically push funding rates lower, and in many cases into negative territory.

If short positions remain active while funding turns deeply negative, this imbalance can create conditions for a price rebound, driven by funding resets and short-side pressure.

Written by Amr Taha

Last time this movement occurred was in May 2022.

After MVRV entered this zone, price BTC drop 50%, from $30,000 to $15,000.

The best time to accumulate Bitcoin is when MVRV indicator remains below 1.44 and can reach 0.90.

Written by G a a h

Demand coming from what CryptoQuant refers to as accumulator addresses continues to rise sharply.

For CryptoQuant, these addresses represent a specific class of long term holders, and their current behavior is particularly notable.

Monthly accumulation is now averaging around 372,000 BTC, which is a massive figure.

The recent decline in Bitcoin appears to be creating opportunities for these investors or entities, who continue to accumulate aggressively.

For comparison, in September 2024, the average monthly accumulation of these addresses was only about 10,000 BTC.

When I see charts moving this dramatically, I usually try to challenge and rationalize the data.

In this case, however, there are few reasons to question its validity.

The selection of these addresses is based on a precise and complementary set of criteria :

– No outflows

– A minimum amount of BTC purchased in the latest transaction

– At least two purchasing events or inflows

– The address must hold a minimum total BTC balance

– The address must have been active at least once in the past seven years

– Known exchange and miner addresses are excluded

– No smart contract activity

This framework is designed to minimize potential data distortion as much as possible.

That is precisely why this wave of BTC accumulation is so compelling to watch.

While some investors are reacting emotionally to short term price action, others appear to be positioning for the long term, which has historically been one of the most effective approaches to investing in Bitcoin.

Written by Darkfost

$ETH whales are currently in a loss position. The magnitude of their losses is similar to previous bottoms.

They haven't had a chance to take profits during this cycle, as they have continued to accumulate.

This means the current price range represents the bottom for $ETH.

They have the largest holdings ever, but haven't been able to take profits.

Their target is the upcoming rally. They are still accumulating massive amounts in preparation for a bull market.

Written by CW8900

Despite the decline in $BTC, accumulation continues. In fact, it's increasing.

Their full-scale accumulation began in October 2024. And the current price has returned to where they started their accumulation.

In fact, the current price may be more attractive to them, as it's the price at which they began their accumulation.

Their goal is clear: they are continuing to accumulate in preparation for a bullish rally.

Written by CW8900

From an on-chain perspective, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained predominantly negative, indicating relatively weak demand from US-based investors and a lack of aggressive spot buying on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. This persistent negative reading aligns with the broader corrective structure observed on the charts.

However, the index has recently experienced a noticeable upward surge. Although it is still below the neutral threshold, the intensity of the rebound suggests that selling pressure from US participants may be easing. If this upward momentum continues and the index crosses into positive territory, turning green, it would signal renewed spot demand from US investors.

Such a shift could act as a catalyst for a bullish rebound, particularly if it coincides with a technical breakout from the current triangle formation. In that scenario, both technical structure and on-chain demand would align in favor of a stronger recovery phase.

Written by ShayanMarkets

On-chain data indicates a significant shift in investor behavior regarding Compound (COMP) on Binance. The weekly “Netflow” chart reveals a sharp negative turn, suggesting a strong change in market sentiment.

Key Analysis Points:

Largest Capital Outflow Since October:

In the past week, the Netflow indicator for COMP plummeted to -$1.8 million. Observing the trend from October to the present, this represents the most significant negative candle recorded. This substantial withdrawal highlights a massive movement of funds away from the Binance exchange.

Reduction in Selling Pressure:

Back in late October (specifically the week of Oct 27), the chart showed a massive inflow of COMP (a tall positive bar), which is typically a precursor to increased selling pressure. The recent movement is the exact opposite. A $1.8M outflow suggests that holders are unwilling to liquidate at current price levels and are instead moving assets to cold wallets or DeFi protocols for long-term holding.

Conclusion:

Setting a new record for weekly COMP outflows from Binance serves as a classic Bullish signal. This behavior indicates a supply shock on the exchange side and suggests the beginning of a strong Accumulation Phase by whales or institutional investors.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has dropped back toward the 0.92–0.94 zone — a level that historically marked major bear market stress points.

In 2019 and 2023, similar readings occurred during deep corrective phases where coins were being spent at a loss.

Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset.

Now, aSOPR is again pressing into that same region.

Key observations:

aSOPR < 1 → Coins are being spent at a loss

Multiple cycle lows formed around 0.92–0.93

Current structure resembles prior bear transition phases

Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks where aSOPR quickly reclaims 1.0, this move shows sustained weakness and loss realization.

If aSOPR fails to reclaim 1.0 soon, this increases the probability that we are not in a simple correction — but transitioning into a broader bear phase.

Historically, true bottoms form when:

aSOPR deeply compresses

Loss realization peaks

Selling pressure exhausts

At the moment, we are entering stress territory — but not yet at extreme capitulation levels.

Conclusion:

aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration.

This looks less like a dip, and more like a regime shift.

The real bottom may still require deeper compression before a durable reversal forms.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

In-depth data, including all metric breakdowns and visual trend analysis, is available in the full infographic. The information below is an executive summary of the on-chain panorama.

The opening of February 2026 serves as a stark map of institutional exhaustion. As Bitcoin navigated a treacherous 50% decline, the on-chain diagnosis grew increasingly grim: NUPL registering 21.30% in the fear region is a portrait of this first half of February for Bitcoin. A Fear & Greed Index of 8.0 confirms a state of extreme panic, fueled by significant macroeconomic uncertainty and specific operational shifts to be monitored.

METRICS

◾ ETFs → Net outflow of $2.172 billion in the period.

◾ Supply → 42.85% of the supply in a state of loss, highlighting the phase of critical stress.

◾ Quarterly Price Performance → -25.78% so far, with no prospect of recovery for this quarter.

◾ Growth Rate → BTC (-19.10%) / Top 20 (-12.48%) / Mid-Small (-18.30%) , making the contraction in the crypto economy evident.

◾ Demand from Accumulator Addresses → On the other hand, demand from accumulators is strong: 380,104 BTC over the last 30 days.

◾ Miners → With an MPI of -1.31, it suggests accumulation (HODLing), as AI revenues cushion operations.

CONCLUSION

Bitcoin's 50% collapse toward the 200-period moving average on the weekly timeframe — which coincides with the region of its realized price at $55,800 — will be a significant test, besides being seen by analysts as a region conducive to accumulation. However, the turn toward recovery now depends on investor resilience.

Written by GugaOnChain

As the correction extends, its duration is beginning to weigh on investors and on overall market sentiment. Impatience is gradually building, and the psychological fatigue created by this trend is pushing even large holders to adjust their behavior.

On Binance, we are seeing a rise in inflows coming from the largest transactions. Whether driven by capital rotation, risk management, or strategic repositioning, the share represented by these large flows has increased significantly in recent days. This dynamic suggests that major holders are particularly active during this complex phase of the market.

Currently, the cohort of transactions between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC largely dominates inflows on Binance, accounting for 74% of the total. Such activity is not surprising on a platform known for its deep liquidity and market depth, which is often preferred for executing large orders.

Two days earlier, the intermediate cohort of transactions between 100 and 1,000 BTC had already seen a sharp increase in its share, reaching 43% of inflows.

The rise in these substantial flows points to potentially increasing selling pressure.

Despite this, Bitcoin has managed to hold its ground for several weeks, indicating that ongoing demand is still absorbing part of these movements, even if that demand remains relatively weak. This situation nevertheless deserves close attention. If selling pressure from these large actors persists without an improvement in demand, its impact on market structure could become more pronounced in the medium term.

Written by Darkfost

The Fear and Greed Index is a widely used sentiment indicator that quantifies investor psychology in the cryptocurrency market. This analysis refers to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index provided by Alternative.me. The index measures Bitcoin-centered market sentiment by combining multiple factors, including volatility, market momentum and volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance, and Google search trends. By integrating these components, it reflects not only price movements but also investor risk appetite and market attention.

Currently, the index has fallen to an extreme fear level rarely seen in historical cycles. Similar conditions appeared during major stress events such as the 2018 bear market bottom, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse. This indicates that market participants are prioritizing risk avoidance and remain cautious about re-entering the market.

From a behavioral finance perspective, this reflects loss aversion and herd behavior. After experiencing significant losses, investors tend to reduce risk exposure and delay re-entry. As a result, sentiment often recovers more slowly than price.

Extreme fear does not necessarily signal an immediate recovery. Historically, such conditions have marked the early phase of a bottom formation process rather than the start of a new uptrend. Recovery typically requires time for confidence and capital flows to gradually return, suggesting the market is currently in a psychological reset phase rather than a confirmed recovery.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Are we witnessing the final capitulation that precedes the next leg up, or will this trendline finally break down?

The 1–3 month cohort is currently sitting at -20.85% unrealized PnL, meaning recent buyers are, on average, deeply underwater. This places the metric right at the lower boundary of the descending structure that has been respected since mid-2023, where Bitcoin found local bottoms and rallied.

That structure is important.

Notice how each successive drawdown (-12%, -15%, -20%) has formed lower lows in the P/L margin, yet Bitcoin's actual price has maintained higher lows structurally. This divergence suggests speculative momentum has been fading over time.

Now we are once again testing the downside extreme.

Historically, when this cohort moves below -20%, stress increases. These are not long-term holders, they are the most reactive participants. If losses persist, the probability of capitulation rises.

Another key level, the short-term traders Realized Price sits at $88K. As long as price trades below that level, this group remains underwater, which creates latent sell pressure on bounces. A sustained reclaim above $88K would flip this cohort back into profit and likely improve market psychology quickly.

So the market stands at an inflection point:

Is this another cyclical reset within a broader bullish structure?

Or is the repeated formation of lower profitability highs signaling deeper fragility?

We are in stress. And stress levels tend to precede resolution.

Written by MorenoDV_

Data from Binance indicates that daily trading volume reached approximately 486,000 ETH, with Ethereum trading near $2,050, while the Z-Score registered a reading of around -0.39.

This trading volume level is below the monthly average, a fact corroborated by the negative Z-Score reading. Values below zero indicate that current activity is lower than the 30-day moving average. Historically, such readings reflect periods of relative calm in liquidity and often coincide with consolidation or repositioning phases by market participants, rather than strong upward momentum.

From a price perspective, the chart shows that Ethereum has retreated from levels above $3,000 in previous months to its current range near $2,050, suggesting a clear corrective move. Interestingly, this price decline was not accompanied by a strong and sustained surge in trading volume. On the contrary, volume has remained within moderate ranges, with only temporary spikes, suggesting that the selling pressure is not driven by widespread panic but rather by a gradual unwinding process.

When a negative Z-Score reading coincides with relatively stable volume, it often reflects a market environment that tends to build a base before any subsequent significant move. In other words, the market may be in a quiet consolidation phase, or at least in the process of absorbing the previous move.

Written by Arab Chain