The realized capitalization of the supply set, including coins existing from 24 hours to 1 month, is currently at a new recovery threshold following the most substantial decline of 2023.

In my view, this dataset effectively reflects Bitcoin's market price fluctuations. It represents recently acquired coins before they become long-term holdings or are continually traded in the short term.

1/ Historically, the percentage of realized capitalization for this age band (1d -1m) illustrates market progression, evident in peak or trough areas, in line with market price history.

In previous cycles, the market's upward momentum is reflected in this group's continuously rising or sustained percentage of realized capitalization. This suggests new investors or capital inflows for accumulating new unspent outputs have increased. However, this is not the case currently, as this data continuously fluctuates and hasn't surpassed the < 8% threshold.

2/ Data on the change in realized capitalization of this age band in USD also shows similarities.

Local peaks, bottoms, or medium-term bull/bear periods reflect a cautious mentality as investors inject more capital to accumulate.

During late 2022's bottom, this group's Realized Cap decreased to ~$19.8B and recovered to ~$44B when BTC peaked at $30K-31K. However, it has since fallen back to ~$20B and is recovering slightly.

The current change in this data (in blue and green) shows an inconsistent recovery, partly due to general market sentiment, including macroeconomic and geopolitical issues.

The market will likely remain uncertain if these data don't show significant and positive trends from now until the year's end. The volatility will be unpredictable, so newcomers should not expect continuous and strong price increases as in the first half of this year.

Remaining patient & waiting for clarity is the best course of action.

Check charts in my query dashboard.

Written by BinhDang