JOLTS
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Consumer confidence declines and JOLTS data weakens😨
Fixed income markets went into a bit of a reality check yesterday with US data hitting a speed-bump suddenly, as JOLTS jobs data and consumer confidence both came in well below expectations. Job openings came in at a ~4 standard deviation miss below at a 8,827k figure for July vs 9,500k expected, a significant drop from an already downwardly revised 9,165k in June. Job losses were concentrated in professional services. Furthermore, the quit rate fell from 2.4% to 2.3%, the lowest levels since January back in-line to the pre-pandemic levels, with the largest drop in accommodations and food services which cratered from 5.1% to 3.9%. Powell's favored job openings-to-unemployed individuals declined from 1.6 to 1.5 for the lowest level since Sep 2021, which is still well above the 1.2 level indicative of a health job market, but the rest of the data print has significantly raised expectations for a lower NFP print this Friday.
The Conference Board consumer confidence also came in weaker at 106.1 vs 116 expected, an 8 point drop versus the the revised figure last month, with weakness spread across both the present situation as well as the expectations components. Furthermore, the labor differential reading dropped from 32.4 to 26.2, the lowest print since April 2021 and confirming the weakness in the JOLTS data.
#JOLTS #fixedincome #economy #job #NFP
Fixed income markets went into a bit of a reality check yesterday with US data hitting a speed-bump suddenly, as JOLTS jobs data and consumer confidence both came in well below expectations. Job openings came in at a ~4 standard deviation miss below at a 8,827k figure for July vs 9,500k expected, a significant drop from an already downwardly revised 9,165k in June. Job losses were concentrated in professional services. Furthermore, the quit rate fell from 2.4% to 2.3%, the lowest levels since January back in-line to the pre-pandemic levels, with the largest drop in accommodations and food services which cratered from 5.1% to 3.9%. Powell's favored job openings-to-unemployed individuals declined from 1.6 to 1.5 for the lowest level since Sep 2021, which is still well above the 1.2 level indicative of a health job market, but the rest of the data print has significantly raised expectations for a lower NFP print this Friday.
The Conference Board consumer confidence also came in weaker at 106.1 vs 116 expected, an 8 point drop versus the the revised figure last month, with weakness spread across both the present situation as well as the expectations components. Furthermore, the labor differential reading dropped from 32.4 to 26.2, the lowest print since April 2021 and confirming the weakness in the JOLTS data.
#JOLTS #fixedincome #economy #job #NFP
Global yields surge, economic data stronger than expected🌍
While most of China and HK were out on Lunar and Golden Week holidays the past week, the biggest news in macro was spike in global yields which saw 30yr treasuries yields touch 5%, 10y German bond yields touching 3%, and 10y JGB yields above 80bp.
This past week began with a line up of hawkish speakers for both the Fed and the ECB, emphasising along the lines of the last mile of inflation being the hardest to tackle, and the continued message that any expectations of policy easing to be premature; however, it was the release of stronger data that led to another mid-week 'taper-tantrum'-like spike in bond yields. Outside of a better than expected bounce in US ISM manufacturing, it was really the Wednesday bounce in JOLTS that shocked the markets into a risk-off move. Job openings bounced to 9,610k in August, significantly above forecasts of 8,815k, taking November hiking odds above 30% at one point, dragging 10y yields +12bp higher on Tuesday and the SPX -1.3% lower on the day.
#Fed #ECB #Inflation #JOLTS #macro
While most of China and HK were out on Lunar and Golden Week holidays the past week, the biggest news in macro was spike in global yields which saw 30yr treasuries yields touch 5%, 10y German bond yields touching 3%, and 10y JGB yields above 80bp.
This past week began with a line up of hawkish speakers for both the Fed and the ECB, emphasising along the lines of the last mile of inflation being the hardest to tackle, and the continued message that any expectations of policy easing to be premature; however, it was the release of stronger data that led to another mid-week 'taper-tantrum'-like spike in bond yields. Outside of a better than expected bounce in US ISM manufacturing, it was really the Wednesday bounce in JOLTS that shocked the markets into a risk-off move. Job openings bounced to 9,610k in August, significantly above forecasts of 8,815k, taking November hiking odds above 30% at one point, dragging 10y yields +12bp higher on Tuesday and the SPX -1.3% lower on the day.
#Fed #ECB #Inflation #JOLTS #macro
