bitcoin

Bitcoin ran hard, then reality hit. Losing $70K wasn’t just technical, it changed market behavior. This feels less like panic and more like a reset phase.
Bitcoin didn’t just pull back. It lost a level the market trusted.
For months, Bitcoin felt unstoppable. Every dip was bought, sentiment stayed bullish, and momentum carried price all the way to the October 2025 peak near $126,000. Confidence was high, risk was ignored, and the trend looked easy.
Then the tone quietly changed.
When Bitcoin slipped below $70,000, most traders initially brushed it off as another routine dip. But this time, the bounce never really showed strength. Selling pressure stayed persistent, volatility expanded, and price gradually slid toward the $60,000 zone. In the process, Bitcoin gave back around 50% of its gains from the peak.
That wasn’t panic.
That was the market hitting reset.
Why $70K Was More Than Just a Level
$70,000 wasn’t just technical support. It was psychological. Above it, the market believed the trend was safe. Below it, confidence cracked. Once that level flipped into resistance, behavior shifted quickly. Leverage began to unwind, late longs got trapped, and fear replaced the calm optimism that defined the rally.
This is usually how strong trends pause. Not with a single crash, but with a slow grind that exhausts both buyers and sellers.
What a Reset Phase Really Looks Like
Right now, Bitcoin isn’t trending. It’s resetting.
That typically comes with:
Choppy, unpredictable price actionSharp moves in both directionsFailed breakouts and weak recoveriesEmotional overtrading
These phases feel frustrating, but they’re necessary. Strong rallies don’t continue without clearing excess leverage and weak positioning first.
One thing that stands out is volume behavior. Selling waves have come with stronger volume, while bounces have looked lighter and less convincing. That usually suggests sellers still have short-term control, even if price is trying to stabilize.
The Most Important Level Right Now
The $60,000 area is the key decision zone for the market.
If buyers defend it, Bitcoin can consolidate, cool down volatility, and start building a healthier baseIf it fails decisively, the market may need to explore lower levels before confidence can return
At this stage, prediction matters less than reaction. Strong markets show demand quickly. Weak markets struggle to reclaim lost levels.
What This Phase Teaches Traders
Markets like this reward discipline, not excitement.
Strong rallies always need resetsPsychological levels matter more than indicatorsPatience usually beats prediction during high volatility
Personally, I’m not trying to guess the bottom. I’m watching how price behaves around key levels, how volume reacts, and whether buyers step in with conviction. This is a phase for observation, not aggression.
My Current Mindset
In conditions like these, my focus is simple: capital protection first, opportunity later. This is where many traders either overtrade or completely step away. Both extremes usually lead to mistakes. Slowing down and letting the market reveal its direction is often the smarter move.
The Bigger Picture
Bitcoin isn’t broken. Corrections like this have always been part of its cycles. The rally was fast and emotional. The reset is slow and uncomfortable. That contrast is normal.
In simple terms:
Bitcoin ran hard. Now it’s catching its breath.
The next real opportunity won’t come from hype. It’ll come when volatility cools, fear fades, and price proves it can stand on its own again.
This is just my market perspective, not financial advice.
👉 Do you see this reset as an accumulation phase, or do you think the market still needs more time to cool off?
#bitcoin
#BTC
#CryptoMarket

Look at the weekly $BTC chart.
There’s one constant across every major cycle the 200-week Moving Average (the red line on the chart).
It has repeatedly acted as the dividing line between panic and opportunity.
2020: Bitcoin wicked below the 200W MA during the Covid crash → followed by a historic bull run.2022–2023: Price consolidated around and slightly under it → leading into the expansion toward six figures.Now: Price is once again revisiting that same structural region
What matters isn’t that price is falling.
What matters is where it’s falling.
The 200W MA Is a Cycle Reset Zone
The 200-week MA is not a magical indicator.
It represents:
• The long-term cost basis of the market
• The average entry of multi-year holders
• A historical compression zone where risk gradually declines
Every time Bitcoin has traded significantly below this level, it has occurred during extreme fear not long-term structural weakness.
On the chart, you can see rounded accumulation bases forming around this line in previous cycles.
Above the 200W MA → optimism and expansion.
At or below it → exhaustion and disbelief.
That emotional contrast is the edge.
Why This Beats 95% of Traders
Most traders:
Buy breakouts after large movesUse leverage late in the cycleSell into fearOvertrade volatility
Meanwhile, a much simpler strategy has historically outperformed:
Wait for BTC to trade at or below the 200-week MA.
Accumulate gradually.
Avoid leverage.
Hold through the recovery phase.
No prediction. No constant screen time. No emotional decision-making.
Over a 2–3 year horizon, this discipline alone has outperformed the majority of active participants.
Important: This Isn’t “Calling the Bottom”
Price can overshoot. Volatility can remain elevated.
The market can stay uncomfortable longer than expected.
But historically, when BTC trades around or below the 200W MA, the long-term asymmetry shifts.
Downside becomes increasingly limited relative to upside potential across a full cycle.
That’s not certainty.
That’s probability.
You don’t need to outsmart the market. You don’t need complex indicators. You don’t need perfect timing. You need patience in high-probability zones. And historically, the 200-week moving average has been one of them.
In crypto, intelligence is common. Discipline is rare. And sometimes, simplicity is the real edge.

Bitcoin price could still reach $150,000 by year-end, but several things must happen for BTC price to find its technical footing and spark a new bull run.
$BTC $66,988 may recover from its ongoing slump and reach $150,000 by the year’s end, according to a recent Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.

Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.

In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw $BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.

In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.

The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting $BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.

More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.

Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop

On Nov 18th 2025 I suggested that Btc was headed for a bottom at $84K (+/-2K).

I expressed concerns about a very bearish move if price fell below $81K. On Nov 21st that low $80s target was hit. Only later to be violated to the downside.

On Nov 30th I suggested that $BTC had bottomed at $80K & would bounce up to $98-99K and get rejected. On Jan 14th 2026 my target of $98K was hit with strange accuracy...and rejected as anticipated.

Once BTC was rejected at $98K, I suggested the recent lows at $80K would be swiped. I once again expressed concerns about a very bearish move if price fell below this local low.
Once the $80K low was swiped (T1), I suggested (on Jan 31st) that the next bearish target would be hit at $60K (+/-2K).

On Feb 6th, my $60K target was hit, and the anticipated significant bounce to follow (20%)

On Feb 6th, I outlined the typical bottoming structures and targets based on my studies of historical price action and statistical analysis. This lead me to expect a bounce from $60K to $71K (+/-1K)...and then a minimum retrace to $62-$65K

On Feb 6th my bullish target at $71K was hit and I suggested that it had met resistance and would be rejected down to my next bearish target ($62K-$65K).

That target of $65K was hit yesterday, as seen in today's chart.

Those that follow me know that I was warning of this significant drop since I mentioned the "three red week down rule" since Sept 2025. I said not only would btc soon crash, but also top alts would follow (ie xrp). This chart called the top for $XRP :

This chart called the top for BTC:

TA works! It works on all assests, in all time frames, across all markets. The question is how? How can someone like me be so "strangely accurate"? After all I don't have a crystal ball. Please know I'm not boasting, I've just been doing this a long time and I want to show you how predicatable it can be. Hopefully this will encourage you to learn TA. Also, I post here to keep track of my calls and to share my trading ideas (I want us all to succeed). Hopefully this offers some insights as to how effective technical analysis can be. I encourage you all to become students of this trade. Education is the only way we can gain any competitve edge in these fast moving markets.

Congratulations to everyone that has taken these trades and are in significant profit.

#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #Xrp🔥🔥

Bitcoin’s rejection at $70,000 and the large liquidity void below leave $60,000 vulnerable, a move analysts see as likely in the coming days.
$BTC $66,989 price fell to $65,800 on Wednesday, slipping back below key intraday trend lines and raising concerns that last week’s drop to $60,000 may not have been the final bottom. Now, analysts say the possibility of another drop to the yearly low ($59,800) is increasing due to a growing liquidity gap between $66,000 and $60,000. 
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs after repeated rejections near the $70,000–$72,000 resistance zone.The relative strength index (RSI) is trending toward oversold levels as the price trades below key moving averages.The liquidation heatmap indicated an absence of liquidity up to $60,500, keeping the risk of a downside price move open.
Failure to hold $70,000 weakens Bitcoin’s short-term prospects
Bitcoin’s one-hour chart shows multiple failed attempts to hold above $70,000. Each rejection has led to lower price highs and steady selling pressure.
BTC’s price briefly pushed into intraday highs of $69,800 before reversing sharply during the New York session on Wednesday, forming a classic swing failure pattern. The move trapped breakout longs and accelerated downside momentum.

$BTC also traded below both the 50-period and 100-period exponential moving averages, confirming short-term bearish control. The RSI remained below 50, indicating limited buying pressure.
A 15-minute order block sits near the $60,800–$61,000 region, an area where strong buying pressure previously stepped in after BTC printed a yearly bottom at $59,800. This region remains a liquidity target if $64,000 fails to hold.
Heatmap data shows $60,000 is a liquidity magnet
Bitcoin’s liquidity heatmaps reveal stacked orders above $72,000, but it also highlights a “liquidity void” from $66,000 to $60,500. This “liquidity void” may act as a magnet, as price tends to move quickly through low-liquidity areas to tap concentrated stop clusters below.

Despite more visible liquidity being higher, the downside remains open as a final stack of leveraged longs worth over $350 million is still positioned near $60,500.
Bitcoin trader Husky said Bitcoin is slipping below the anchored volume-weighted average price (VWAP) drawn from last week’s lows at $59,800, a level that is acting as a short-term fair value. 
With the overall market structure starting to weaken, a lack of a swift recovery above $68,000 increases the risk of further downside toward lower support levels near $65,000. For now, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a broad $60,000 to $72,000 range, according to the trader.

Likewise, market analyst EliZ noted that $BTC is consolidating near $66,500 inside a descending channel. A break below this level may send the price toward the $63,400–$64,600 support zone, increasing the odds of a revisit to $60,000.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

From an analyst’s perspective, the most striking feature of this session is not the size of the declines, but the synchronization across asset classes. Equities, metals, and crypto moved lower at the same time, which usually points to a macro-driven liquidity shift rather than an isolated sector event.
What the Numbers Suggest
Based on the intraday price structures visible across the charts:
• S&P 500: roughly a 1–1.5% decline during the session
• Dow Jones: about a 1% drop
• Nasdaq: closer to a 2% move lower, leading the selloff
• Gold: down around 0.5–1%
• Silver: weaker than gold, approximately 1.5–2% lower
• Bitcoin: the most volatile, roughly a 3–4% pullback from local highs
These magnitudes matter because they show risk assets falling first and hardest, with defensive assets failing to provide a hedge.
Why Nasdaq Matters Most
Nasdaq often acts as a forward indicator for broader risk sentiment. When technology stocks accelerate downward, it typically reflects:
• Reduced risk appetite
• Higher sensitivity to interest rate expectations
• Liquidity being withdrawn from high-growth sectors
Crypto tends to react quickly to these shifts, which explains why Bitcoin’s decline was sharper but closely timed with the equity selloff.
The Gold Signal: Liquidity Stress, Not Panic Buying
One of the most telling details is that gold declined alongside equities.
In classic risk-off scenarios, gold usually rises as investors seek safety. When both fall together, it often suggests:
• A strengthening U.S. dollar
• Rising real yields
• Funds reducing exposure broadly to raise cash
This pattern has historically appeared during periods of liquidity tightening rather than fear-driven hedging.
Silver’s Relative Weakness
Silver dropping faster than gold reinforces the same narrative.
Unlike gold, silver has a strong industrial demand component, so it reacts not only to monetary conditions but also to expectations about economic growth. A larger decline in silver often signals concerns about slowing activity or reduced demand expectations.
Bitcoin’s Structure: Short-Term Pressure Remains
Technically, Bitcoin’s price action shows:
• A sequence of lower highs
• Sharp impulsive moves downward
• Weak and brief recovery attempts
This structure typically indicates that selling pressure remains dominant in the short term, and any bounce is likely to depend heavily on stabilization in equities.
What I’m Watching Next
From a market-structure standpoint, three signals would suggest conditions are stabilizing:
1. Nasdaq stops making new intraday lows
2. Gold begins to hold support or recover
3. Bitcoin volatility compresses, indicating selling exhaustion
When these signals appear together, the probability of a short-term recovery usually increases.
Final View
This session does not look like a crypto-specific event or a single-sector correction.
It looks like a broad liquidity adjustment, where capital is being pulled back across multiple markets simultaneously.
And historically, when correlations rise and everything moves in the same direction, the underlying driver is rarely sentiment alone—it is almost always macro conditions and liquidity.

#BTC #bitcoin #XAU $BTC $XAU

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently sitting on the 4th straight red week following last week's near test of its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). As we've discussed before, the Bear Cycle may be entering Phase 2 when the 1W MA200 finally breaks.
From a Fibonacci perspective, last week's Low also came close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Bear Cycle bottom. That was when the lengthy bottoming process started for BTC. Also that 1W MA200/ 0.382 Fib break coincided with a near test of the 2.0 Fib extension (blue) from the first Low of the 2022 Bear Cycle.
That is currently around $51000 and the Zone within that and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the Bear Cycle bottom (around $45000) is the 'Sweet Spot'. Practically this is a 'no-miss' Buy Zone on a cyclical perspective where long-term investors can start feeling comfortable enough to initiate buying again. We've already discussed why a 1W MA350 (red trend-line) bottom would technically make sense, as this is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin is at $68,000.
And nobody can agree on where it's going next.

The bears say: We're heading to $40K-$50K before any recovery.
The bulls say: This is capitulation $87K to $200K+ is next.

The range: $40,000 to $200,000+.
That's a 150% spread in predictions.
Same market. Same data. Completely different conclusions.

Let me break down what each side is seeing and why both might be partially right.
The Full Spectrum: $40K to $200K

Extreme Bears: $40K-$50K
Who: ZordXBT, John Blank (Zacks), Polymarket traders
The call: Bitcoin drops to $40K-$50K, possibly wicking to $32K
Their argument:
Historical bear markets see 75-85% drops from ATHCurrent 46% drop ($126K → $70K) isn't enoughFinal capitulation hasn't happened yetPolymarket odds: 64% chance Bitcoin goes sub-$50K
Bears: $50K-$55K
Who: Standard Chartered, Canary Capital (Steven McClurg)
The call: Drop to $50K by summer, then recovery to $100K by EOY

Their argument:
ETF outflows continuing ($817M single day, $1.33B weekly)Average ETF buyer sitting on -25% loss (bought at $90K)Macro headwinds (high rates, sticky inflation)Four-year cycle entering bear phase
Standard Chartered's exact words: "We are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months."
Cautious Middle: $60K-$70K Range
Who: Grayscale, cycle-based analysts
The call: Hold current support, range-bound 2026

Their argument:
BTC correlating with high-growth tech stocksNot acting as "digital gold" yetMight be a "breather year" in the four-year cycleSupport should hold at $60K-$70K
Bulls (Near-Term): $87K-$95K
Who: Ainslie Research (Chris Tipper), on-chain analysts
The call: Relief rally to $87K-$95K, then consolidation
Their argument:
Bitcoin oversold vs 50/100-week moving averagesHistorical rallies of 170-220% after undervalued zonesOn-chain showing capitulation signalsShort-term bounce likely before next leg

Institutional Bulls: $143K-$150K
Who: Citi, Standard Chartered (end-2026 target), Grayscale

The call: $143K-$150K by end of 2026
Their argument:

ETF demand will returnInstitutional adoption still earlyFed rate cuts coming (eventually)Four-year cycle might break (no traditional bear in 2026)
Citi's framework: Base case $143K, bull case $189K, bear case $78K
Ultra Bulls: $175K-$200K+
Who: Grayscale (new ATH in H1 2026), CZ, crypto-native analysts
The call: New all-time high above $150K, possibly $200K+
Their argument:

Spot ETFs changed the game (no more 80% crashes)Institutional demand is structural, not cyclicalSupercycle thesis (2026 won't be a bear year)Bitcoin's scarcity + growing demand = inevitable
Grayscale's specific call: "Bitcoin's price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year"

The Bear Case: Why $50K Could Happen

1. ETF Outflows Are Real
The numbers:

ETF holdings down 100,000 BTC from October peakTotal AUM dropped 41%: $165B → $96BAverage ETF buyer entry price: $90KCurrent price: $70KLoss: -22%
What bears say: Institutions aren't buying the dip. They're selling. When your average buyer is underwater, they don't add they cut losses.

2. Historical Drawdowns Go Deeper
Past bear markets:
2018: -85% ($20K → $3K)2022: -78% ($69K → $15.5K)
Current:
2026: -46% ($126K → $70K)
What bears say: We're only halfway through a typical bear market. History says we go lower.
3. Macro Is Getting Worse
Fed not cutting rates yetInflation still sticky at 2.9-3.1%Dollar strengthening (bad for $BTC )Tech stocks correlating down
What bears say: Bitcoin trades like a risk asset. Risk-off environment = more downside.
4. Standard Chartered's Warning

October 2025: $200K for 2025, $300K for 2026

December 2025: Cut to $100K for 2025, $150K for 2026

February 2026: Cut again to $50K near-term, $100K for EOY 2026

What bears say: If a major bank keeps slashing forecasts, they're seeing real deterioration.
The Bull Case: Why $87K-$200K Could Happen
Now let me show you the data bulls are using.
1. On-Chain Says: Capitulation Zone

The signals:
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) below 1 = sellers realizing lossesLong-term holders selling at historic ratesExchange outflows accelerating (whales accumulating)Fear & Greed Index hit 5 (lowest ever, worse than FTX collapse)
What bulls say: Extreme fear + whale accumulation = classic bottom formation.
Example: On February 6, whales bought 66,940 BTC in a single day largest since 2022.
2. Undervalued vs Realized Price
Realized Price: $55K (average cost basis of all Bitcoin)
Current Price: $70K
What bulls say: We're trading near realized price. Historically, this is where bottoms form, not where crashes accelerate.
3. Negative Funding Rates = Short Squeeze Setup
Funding rates have been negative for multiple days.
Translation: Shorts are paying longs. Market is overleveraged to the downside.
What bulls say: When everyone's short, a bounce can trigger a massive short squeeze forcing shorts to buy back, spiking price.
4. Historical Rally Patterns
After extreme fear + capitulation:
2018: +316% rally (from $3.2K to $13K in 6 months)2020: +1,625% rally (from $4K to $69K)2022: +715% rally (from $15.5K to $126K)
What bulls say: If this is capitulation, the next rally could be 200-300%+. That's $140K-$210K from current levels.

Who's Right?
Honestly? Maybe both.
Here's my take on how this could play out:
Scenario 1: Bears Win Short-Term, Bulls Win Long-Term
BTC drops to $50K-$55K (capitulation)Stays there for weeks/monthsThen rallies to $87K-$100K by EOYNew ATH ($150K+) in 2027
Probability: 40%
This fits Standard Chartered's revised forecast and historical patterns.
Scenario 2: We Already Bottomed at $67K
$70K holdsRelief rally to $87K-$95KConsolidation, then continuation to $120K-$150K

Probability: 30%

This fits the bull case if Fear & Greed 5 marked the bottom.
Scenario 3: Deeper Crash to $40K Range
Breaks $60K supportCapitulation wick to $40K-$50KThen recovery begins
Probability: 20%
This fits the extreme bear case and Polymarket odds.
Scenario 4: Supercycle (No Traditional Bear)
Consolidates at $70K-$80KRallies to new ATH by mid-2026No deep bear market
Probability: 10%

This fits Grayscale's "end of four-year cycle" thesis.
The Key Data Points to Watch
Forget predictions. Here's what to actually monitor:
1. ETF Flows
If flows turn positive: Bulls are right.

If outflows continue: Bears are right.
Current: Negative. Watch for reversal.
2. Fear & Greed Index
Currently: 15 (Extreme Fear)
If it drops below 10: Possible final capitulation.

If it starts rising: Bottom might be in.
3. $60K Support
Holds: Bulls have a case.

Breaks: Bears take control, next stop $50K.
4. Funding Rates
Stay negative: Short squeeze setup.

Flip positive: Longs getting squeezed instead.

What Should You Do?
Here's my honest advice:
If You're Waiting to Buy
Don't go all-in at one level.
Layer your entries:
20% at current ($70K)30% at $60K50% at $50K
This way you get exposure if bulls are right, but have dry powder if bears are right.
If You're Already Holding
Don't panic sell.
If you believe long-term (2-5 years), this chop doesn't matter.

Bitcoin at $40K, $50K, or $70K all cheap if it's going to $150K-$200K eventually.
If You're Trading
Respect the range.
We're in $60K-$80K chop. Trade the bounces, take profits, don't over-leverage.
The Bottom Line

#bitcoin is at $70,000.
Bears see: $40K-$55K before recovery.

Bulls see: $87K-$200K+ next.
The truth? Nobody knows.
But here's what we DO know:
✅ #etf outflows are real (bearish)

✅ On-chain capitulation signals are real (bullish)

✅ Macro is challenging (bearish)

✅ Fear & Greed at historic lows (bullish)

✅ Historical bear markets go deeper (bearish)

✅ Historical bottoms have this exact setup (bullish)
Both sides have valid data.

The market will decide who's right.

What's your take are we going to $50K before $100K, or is $70K the bottom? And which analyst camp are you in? Let me know below.

Again. For the second time in a month, South Korean authorities lost confiscated bitcoin: 22 BTC vanished from a police USB wallet. The amount—just $1.5M—misses the point. The wallet sat untouched for four years after an investigation was suspended. Device still there. Coins? Gone. Like finding an open safe with nothing inside.
This isn't one officer's negligence. It's institutional collapse. Courts treat crypto as property to seize—but officials handle it like loose change. Hardware wallets without multisig, passwords stored nearby, zero audits. Real custodians would cringe.
Last month prosecutors lost $48M. I thought it was a fluke. Now it's a pattern: authorities lack the infrastructure, expertise, and protocols to secure what they confiscate. And they wonder why markets distrust state custody?
Honest question: would you trust your life savings with a custodian that loses keys like car keys in a couch?
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin