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Despite a short-term rebound that pushed Bitcoin (BTC) back above $71,000, several well-known traders and analysts are warning that the broader bear market may not be finished yet. Some believe the current price action closely resembles the 2022 bear market , and if history repeats, Bitcoin could still fall toward the $50,000 range before forming a true macro bottom.
Bitcoin rebounds, but skepticism remains
Bitcoin gained nearly 3% on Sunday, extending a sharp bounce that has lifted prices roughly 20% from Friday’s 15-month lows. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reclaiming the $71,000 level as the weekly close approached.
However, the rebound has failed to convince many traders. Market participants remain cautious, arguing that volatility alone does not signal the end of a bear phase.
Flashes 2022-Style Warning Signals
Independent analyst Filbfilb compared the current market structure with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, highlighting uncomfortable similarities. Sharing charts on X, he pointed to Bitcoin’s position relative to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $95,300.
“I’m not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” Filbfilb said, suggesting that bulls may be underestimating downside risk.
Technical analyst Tony Severino echoed the warning, sharing multiple indicators that imply new macro lows are still likely if the pattern continues to mirror 2022.
Capitulation may still lie ahead

Another trader, BitBull, argued that Bitcoin has not yet experienced true capitulation , the phase where panic selling fully flushes out weak hands.

“$BTC final capitulation hasn’t happened yet,” he said.

“A real bottom will form below the $50,000 level where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”
Data from on-chain analytics platform Checkonchain shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs currently have an average cost basis of around $82,000. A drop toward $50,000 would place the majority of ETF investors deep in unrealized losses , a condition often associated with major market bottoms.
Long-term moving averages in focus
Earlier analysis highlighted another critical technical zone: the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week EMA, which together form a long-term support “cloud” between $58,000 and $68,000.
Analyst Caleb Franzen, creator of Cubic Analytics, noted that Bitcoin’s behavior around this zone also resembles 2022.
He explained that in May 2022, Bitcoin briefly bounced after retesting the 200-week moving average cloud, convincing many bulls that the bottom was in. That rally quickly faded, and weeks later price broke decisively below the same support , leading to a deeper crash.
“What are we seeing right now?” Franzen asked.

“The first retest of the 200W MA cloud with a long wick.”
Not an exact repeat , but risks remain
While comparisons to 2022 are concerning, analysts caution that history does not repeat perfectly. Market structure, ETF participation, and macro conditions are different this cycle.
Franzen summed it up clearly:
“The reality is that no one knows what happens next.”
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s bounce above $71,000 has not convinced all tradersMultiple analysts see strong similarities to the 2022 bear marketSome expect final capitulation below $50,000Long-term moving averages remain a critical battlegroundA deeper correction is possible, but not guaranteed

#dyor #NFA

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Referral Program
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Airdrops
Bonus
Total
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The charts are red. The hype feels quiet. After weeks of explosive gains, major memecoins are correcting hard.

This isn't a crash. It's a liquidity rotation.

Smart money isn't leaving crypto—it's moving. Where to?

1. Real Yield Plays: Protocols with actual revenue (like DEXs, lending platforms) are seeing steadier attention. Their charts are flat, not sinking. This is capital seeking safety and fundamentals.
2. Layer 1 & 2 Tokens: The networks that power everything. If the next wave comes, they will be the rising tide that lifts all boats. Developers never stopped building here.
3. Bitcoin & Major Alts (ETH, SOL): The "blue chips." When uncertainty hits, capital flows back to assets with the strongest narratives and largest ecosystems.

The Takeaway:

This pullback is healthy. It separates momentum-chasing from conviction investing.

Use this time to:

· Review your portfolio. Is it all hype, or is there substance?
· DCA into projects you believe have a future beyond the meme cycle.
· Watch for strength. The assets that recover first often lead the next rally.

The market breathes in (consolidation) and breathes out (growth). Right now, it's taking a deep breath.

What are you doing in this market phase? Buying the dip, or sitting tight? Share your strategy below.
$SOL
#MarketUpdate #trading #CryptoStrategy #dyor