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February 9 Market Outlook: Assessment of the Ultimate Rebound and Subsequent Risks

First, let's review last week's market performance. BTC formed a significant long lower shadow with a massive trading volume. This technical pattern clearly indicates that the 60000 level has established itself as a solid phase bottom. Based on this signal, it is expected that an effective upward offensive will unfold in the market within the next 1 to 2 months, and I anticipate the target range for this rebound to be between 78000 and 85000.

However, investors need to be cautious that after this rebound ends, the market may face a comprehensive collapse crisis. At that time, the downward trend will not be limited to the cryptocurrency space; US stocks and even precious metals and other asset classes may also be involved. Considering the cyclical factors of the second half of the bear market, combined with the political uncertainties triggered by the US midterm elections and the market's own deep correction demands, the entire investment community is likely to face an extremely harsh winter period.

February 7 Market Analysis: The market welcomes a strong rebound

Looking back at yesterday's market performance, Bitcoin's trend completely aligned with our previous predictions. After experiencing a round of decline accompanied by huge trading volumes, the market quickly bottomed out and rebounded with increased volume. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency-related sectors in the US stock market also performed strongly, experiencing a widespread surge.

In terms of specific operations, we accurately identified the key bottom signal of $60000 in a timely manner yesterday morning and decisively positioned ourselves to buy BTC and US stocks at the bottom.

From the current trend, the previous one-sided decline has come to an end. In the next 1 to 2 months, the market will mainly focus on rebound recovery and oscillation consolidation. We have locked in the target range for this rebound between 78000 and 85000. It is important to remind everyone that once this range is broken upwards, it will face intense pressure from trapped positions, so we advise everyone to remain rational and not to hold overly unrealistic expectations.

Looking back, the cryptocurrency space has always been full of ever-changing reforms, with concepts like DeFi, RWA, NFT, privacy technology, and memes emerging one after another. It felt like I was back in school, striving to absorb new knowledge every day, deeply aware of the boundless sea of learning. However, turning my gaze to the present, the innovation in the cryptocurrency sector seems to have fallen into stagnation. In stark contrast, the AI field is experiencing explosive growth, bringing unprecedented new things every day. Whether it's large models, AI programming, AI agents, or AI quantification, various technological breakthroughs are happening continuously. Moreover, new tools like Claude code, open work, and openclaw have also been successively launched. Faced with such a massive flow of information, one can't help but sigh; there is simply too much to learn, it feels endless.

We have noticed that BTC is rebounding in sync with the Nasdaq index, showing a positive trend of bottoming out and recovering. For the confirmation of the subsequent trend, the ideal situation is to pay attention to tomorrow morning's closing performance: if a bullish candle with increased trading volume can be formed, solidifying the bottoming out and recovery pattern, then this will be a very positive signal. At that time, we can basically determine that the price level of 60,000 will become the phase bottom in the last two to three months.

2.6 Going Against the Trend: Staying Greedy in Panic

Regarding BTC reaching the 60,000 mark, we define it as a stage of bottoming performance. It is now the moment to enter the market and seize the rebound opportunity, expecting a 30% rebound in price over the following 2 to 3 months. It should be clear that this should be understood as a rebound trend rather than the absolute bottom of a bear market cycle.

The reason for the above judgment is mainly based on the accelerated decline experienced by the market yesterday, accompanied by massive trading volume. Although we saw a huge amount of capital fleeing due to panic, at the same time, a similarly substantial amount of capital entered to absorb the liquidity. This phenomenon is a typical signal of the market confirming a stage bottom under the cloud of panic emotions.

On February 6th, amidst widespread market panic, we must adopt a greedy contrarian mindset. For the current price level of 16,000, we define it as a phase bottom area, which is also a good opportunity to enter and seize rebound chances. Looking ahead to the next 2 to 3 months, the market is expected to welcome a rebound of approximately 30%. However, please remain clear-headed, as this is only a rebound and not the final bottom of the bear market cycle. The conclusion is drawn from the core logic that the market experienced a rapid decline with increased volume yesterday, and while there was a large-scale panic sell-off, a significant amount of capital also entered to absorb liquidity. This intense contest of funds precisely constitutes a clear signal of a phased bottom in market panic sentiment.

2.5 BTC Price Downward Path Outlook

Currently, the key support level of 74000 on the weekly chart has been lost. Although the next weekly low indicated by the technical analysis points to 49000, this level is not expected to be breached all at once. The price will first retrace to the densely distributed chip area of 57000 to 67000, and it is very likely to form a short-term bottom within this range, which will trigger a decent rebound. This process of fluctuation and rebound is expected to last for several months, but investors need to understand that the deeper logic behind such rebounds is mainly to clean up floating short positions and implement a secondary inducement to achieve a re-unification of market costs.

February 4th Market View: The current rebound may seem somewhat fragile.

First, let's look at the weekly chart of BTC, where clear reversal signals have appeared from a technical perspective. The 20-day moving average and the 60-day moving average at the weekly level have formed a death cross, while the price has lost the key previous low of 74500. As the market creates lower new lows, the weekly cycle has actually fully entered a bearish trend.

Investors need to be aware that such large-scale trend adjustments are often difficult to conclude in just two to three months. The market has not yet experienced a true panic sell-off moment, and it is expected that a large-scale bottom structure will not emerge until the second half of the year.

Currently, the upper pressure range has gradually moved down to the line of 81000 to 84000. In the upcoming trend, we are likely to see the price highs and lows display a continuously downward trend.

On February 3rd, the market dynamics show that the crypto sector is experiencing a comprehensive price decline. Just yesterday, several star concept stocks that had previously achieved astonishing increases of 10 to 30 times during this bull market—Coinbase, MSTR, and Robinhood—saw significant declines, with HOOD's drop reaching as much as 10%.

In light of the current market trends, we can confirm that the market is undoubtedly dominated by a bearish trend. However, market sentiment seems not to have fully released yet, and the most panic-inducing phase has yet to arrive. Based on the judgment of the larger cycle, it is still too early to enter for bottom positioning.

For friends focused on short-term trading, it is recommended to pay attention to BTC's upcoming rebound performance. Currently, its rebound target is likely to be within the range of 81000 to 84500.

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2.2 Focus on the once-every-four-years cyclical weekly EMA death cross

1. The weekly EMA20 and EMA60 moving averages of Bitcoin (BTC) have once again formed a death cross pattern, which has not occurred for 4 years. Looking back at historical trajectories, this phenomenon, which appears once every 4 years, has never ceased since 2014.

2. Whenever this death cross pattern is established, it often indicates that the long bear market process has only just reached its halfway point. Although we have not yet entered a phase of accelerated decline that truly triggers panic, everyone needs to be vigilant, as this extreme market condition could arrive at any moment.

3. Historical patterns show that after the death cross occurs, it will be difficult for the price to break through and stabilize above the weekly EMA20. This state of suppression usually continues until the entire bear market cycle is completely over.

2.2 Four-Year Cycle: Weekly EMA Death Cross Pattern

1. History seems to repeat itself; since 2014, that four-year curse has never been absent. Now, in the BTC weekly chart, both the EMA20 and EMA60 moving averages have once again confirmed the death cross signal after a four-year interval.

2. Based on past experiences, the establishment of a death cross usually marks that the bear market is just past its halfway point. Although we have not yet experienced that extreme panic-driven acceleration in decline, everyone still needs to remain vigilant, as such severe fluctuations could erupt at any moment.

3. Another notable pattern is that after the formation of a death cross, unless the bear market is completely over, prices often struggle to break through and stabilize above the key position of the weekly EMA20.

Regarding seizing the best timing to buy the dip in BTC, it is suggested not to limit oneself to observing the single price of BTC; instead, consider a different perspective and focus on the trend of the BTC/AAPL ratio.

Based on past experience, once this ratio reaches the upper bound of the channel, it usually indicates that the BTC price has reached a peak for the stage, and risks follow. At this time, choosing to hold the more stable AAPL stock is a better strategy. Conversely, when this ratio falls back to the lower bound of the channel, it often signals that BTC has bottomed out, revealing investment opportunities; this is a favorable time to switch positions to the highly volatile BTC.

Regarding the well-known insider account that established a short position on October 11, the latest data shows that its trading career came to an end at 2 AM today. From the beginning of the position on October 10 until the liquidation on February 1, the account experienced significant ups and downs over its 110-day duration. Looking back at its trading history, the trader accurately opened a short position on the eve of the market crash on October 10, with unrealized profits reaching a peak of 140 million USD, but ultimately the outcome was a loss of 120 million USD upon exiting. The direct cause of this account's sudden demise was the failure of ETH trading, with a single loss reaching 200 million USD, triggering a forced liquidation of 710,000 ETH. Throughout its existence, this account narrated a complete story from taking off from the ground to soaring into the clouds, and finally falling into the abyss, all through the operation of just 9 positions. You can click the following link to view detailed records: https://hyperbot.network/trader/0xb317D2BC2D3d2Df5Fa441B5bAE0AB9d8b07283ae

2.1 The financial market is facing a comprehensive shock

1. The entire financial sector, covering precious metals, stocks, and the cryptocurrency market, has all suffered heavy blows. The trends of gold and silver have collapsed, Bitcoin prices are probing new lows again, and the sharp decline in Microsoft's stock price has also directly triggered a collective downturn in the tech sector.

2. As an early indicator of liquidity changes, Bitcoin was the first to experience a crash, and now gold and silver have also begun to decline accordingly. Although the stock market is currently performing relatively strong, it is expected to follow the general trend later. This indicates that the bull market in this round of the financial market has come to an end, and the adjustment period may have just started. However, the more severe the adjustment, the more likely it is to be accompanied by more entry opportunities, just as the greater the storm, the more expensive the catch.

The highly anticipated Bitget stock contract championship has officially begun. This event not only features intense competition but also offers a reward pool of up to one million USDT, inviting experts from all walks of life to participate.

According to the schedule, the event will officially start at 00:00 UTC on January 23, 2026, and will last until 23:59 on February 11, 2026.

To give back to the vast number of traders, this competition has set up a luxurious prize pool totaling 1,551,000 USDT. For different types of participation, the prize distribution is as follows:

First is the team competition section, where we will allocate 940,000 USDT for various participating teams to compete for.

For participants who prefer to operate independently, we have also specially launched an individual challenge, with a total prize pool of 300,000 USDT. This track is tailored for solo traders, and the top 100 ranked participants will share this generous prize.

In addition, the highly anticipated star trader challenge will also take place simultaneously, featuring a peak showdown among well-known influencers in the global cryptocurrency field, with a total prize of 101,000 USDT. Among them, the top 3 performers will directly share 100,000 USDT, while the remaining 1,000 USDT will be distributed as a community voting prize pool.

In addition to the above competitive events, participants can also earn rewards through the task center, which has reserved a reward amount of 100,000 USDT.

For more details or to participate in the competition, please click the following event link:

January 30 Market Analysis: Only a Step Away from a New Low

Looking back at the rebound trend over the past two months, market participants originally had high hopes for breaking through the 100,000 psychological barrier. However, the operations of the main funds have been quite sophisticated; the price abruptly stopped after climbing to the 98,000 level and turned to open a new round of downward movement.

Observing yesterday's market performance, the decline was accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, and the current price is now very close to the previous low of 80,600. Anticipating the next trend, if the price breaks below the previous low and sets a new low, it could easily trigger forced liquidation of long positions. This chain reaction usually prompts some shorts to cover their positions, thereby pushing the price to experience a temporary rebound. Based on this logic, it is recommended that everyone remain rational at this current juncture; there is not much necessity to chase shorts at this time.

Earlier discussions about AI's participation in cryptocurrency trading gained significant attention, but the actual performance has not been satisfactory. This is mainly due to the limitations of general large models when delving into vertical fields. However, if we can establish a completely new operational logic: first, relying on quantitative strategies, inputting highly relevant and precise data resources to the AI; then allowing the AI to upgrade algorithms through continuous learning and training; and finally using this new algorithm to further optimize the quantitative strategy. In this way, a complete closed-loop system can be constructed, thereby truly achieving the ideal ultimate form of AI and quantitative integration—a smart model capable of continuous self-iteration and evolution.

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Looking back at the backtesting data from the past year, this strategy achieved a profit of 69% despite the BTC market dropping by 8.39% during the same period, demonstrating significant excess return capability. During this time, the strategy executed a total of 57 trades, maintaining a balanced long-short distribution. Detailed performance metrics show: a win rate of 52%, a profit-loss ratio of 1:3.1, a profit factor of 3.7, and a Sharpe ratio recorded at 1.43. In terms of risk control, it also performed robustly, with a maximum drawdown of only 3.4% and the longest consecutive loss limited to 4 times.

In my opinion, relying solely on hoarding coins to achieve financial freedom is a thing of the past; the model that integrates AI technology with quantitative trading is the right path to the future.