煌道 | 交易之道搬运号
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煌道 | 交易之道搬运号
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8.18 Several Dangerous Signals Worth Watching in the Market
Recently, as the market develops, we have observed a number of phenomena that require caution. First is a rather dangerous signal: an increasing number of KOLs have begun to join the camp that believes the BTC bear market is bottoming. Based on historical experience, the true bottom of a bear market is usually accompanied by significant divergence of opinions, yet now almost everyone is leaning overwhelmingly toward the view that the bottom has already arrived. This level of consensus in sentiment is certainly something we should think deeply about.
Second, we need to pay attention to the state of the macro financial markets. The S&P index is still holding at historical highs. Looking back at past data, we have never seen a bear market bottom while the stock index remained at such a high level. If the stock index were to enter a bear-market cycle in the future, BTC would inevitably have further room to decline. This suggests that the latter half of the current bear market may not have truly started yet.
Finally, historical price action also provides us with some important references. Looking back at 2018 and 2022, during the period from June to October in both years, the market was in a sustained phase of choppy, range-bound movement. Then, around the mid-November period election, the market ultimately triggered a final wave of heavy selloff. These objective patterns from the past are all reminding us that, when facing the current market, staying clear-headed and rational is especially important.
Recently, as the market develops, we have observed a number of phenomena that require caution. First is a rather dangerous signal: an increasing number of KOLs have begun to join the camp that believes the BTC bear market is bottoming. Based on historical experience, the true bottom of a bear market is usually accompanied by significant divergence of opinions, yet now almost everyone is leaning overwhelmingly toward the view that the bottom has already arrived. This level of consensus in sentiment is certainly something we should think deeply about.
Second, we need to pay attention to the state of the macro financial markets. The S&P index is still holding at historical highs. Looking back at past data, we have never seen a bear market bottom while the stock index remained at such a high level. If the stock index were to enter a bear-market cycle in the future, BTC would inevitably have further room to decline. This suggests that the latter half of the current bear market may not have truly started yet.
Finally, historical price action also provides us with some important references. Looking back at 2018 and 2022, during the period from June to October in both years, the market was in a sustained phase of choppy, range-bound movement. Then, around the mid-November period election, the market ultimately triggered a final wave of heavy selloff. These objective patterns from the past are all reminding us that, when facing the current market, staying clear-headed and rational is especially important.
Market Analysis for August 17: 2026 May See Another “Final Dip” Again
Hello everyone. Today, I’d like to discuss the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market. Looking back at BTC’s historical performance, we can see that from June to October each year often falls into a relatively calm period of consolidation and range trading. By closely observing 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, we find that this cycle’s behavior is nearly replayed almost every year. During these months, market volatility often narrows significantly to between 20% and 30%, and only from October to November does the market truly pick a direction and break out into a clear trend.
This year-end trend breakout is not accidental—it has a very close relationship with the U.S. midterm elections held in November. Policy changes triggered by the election process are often the core factor that disrupts market calm and causes volatility to rise markedly.
Additionally, when reviewing past bear-market years, we can draw more cautionary conclusions. In the two typical bear-market years, 2018 and 2022, the market also experienced this: after a long period of consolidation, it started a “final dip” in November that triggered extreme panic, ultimately revealing the bottom region. According to specific historical data, the severity of the two sell-offs differed—2018 saw a decline of 50%, while 2022 fell by 27%. Based on these objective patterns and cyclical logic, I’ve made a forecast for the 2026 market outlook: I believe that in 2026, there is a high likelihood of another “final pull-down,” and I expect the magnitude of this drop to exceed 30%. I hope this data-driven analysis can provide some useful references for your future planning.
Hello everyone. Today, I’d like to discuss the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market. Looking back at BTC’s historical performance, we can see that from June to October each year often falls into a relatively calm period of consolidation and range trading. By closely observing 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, we find that this cycle’s behavior is nearly replayed almost every year. During these months, market volatility often narrows significantly to between 20% and 30%, and only from October to November does the market truly pick a direction and break out into a clear trend.
This year-end trend breakout is not accidental—it has a very close relationship with the U.S. midterm elections held in November. Policy changes triggered by the election process are often the core factor that disrupts market calm and causes volatility to rise markedly.
Additionally, when reviewing past bear-market years, we can draw more cautionary conclusions. In the two typical bear-market years, 2018 and 2022, the market also experienced this: after a long period of consolidation, it started a “final dip” in November that triggered extreme panic, ultimately revealing the bottom region. According to specific historical data, the severity of the two sell-offs differed—2018 saw a decline of 50%, while 2022 fell by 27%. Based on these objective patterns and cyclical logic, I’ve made a forecast for the 2026 market outlook: I believe that in 2026, there is a high likelihood of another “final pull-down,” and I expect the magnitude of this drop to exceed 30%. I hope this data-driven analysis can provide some useful references for your future planning.
Market Insight on August 17: A Discussion on Whether BTC May Face Its Last Pullback in 2026
Hello everyone. Today, let’s sort out the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin. Based on historical patterns, I personally believe that in 2026, BTC is highly likely to undergo one final major pullback and downside selloff, with the expected drawdown exceeding 30%.
Looking back at past market cycles, we can see a very clear seasonal feature. In 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, almost every year from June to October, Bitcoin has mostly been moving sideways and consolidating. During this extended consolidation period, market volatility typically gradually narrows to a range of 20% to 30%. Price action often needs to build momentum, and only from October to November does it truly break out into a clear direction.
If we focus our attention on two representative bear-market years—2018 and 2022—we can find striking similarities. In both years, after the initial period of sideways consolidation, the market launched its final selloff that triggered widespread panic in November, and that sequence ultimately succeeded in establishing a bottom. Although the magnitude of these bottom adjustments differed—2018 saw a 50% drop, while 2022 saw a 27% drop—the overall timing and rhythm were remarkably consistent. Based on these historical data, I infer that 2026 will likely see a similar ultimate pullback as well.
Delving into the deeper logic behind it, this kind of periodic anomaly is mainly closely related to the U.S. midterm elections held in November. Changes in policy direction brought about by the election process often serve as a key catalyst, which in turn leads to a significant amplification of volatility across the entire financial market.
Hello everyone. Today, let’s sort out the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin. Based on historical patterns, I personally believe that in 2026, BTC is highly likely to undergo one final major pullback and downside selloff, with the expected drawdown exceeding 30%.
Looking back at past market cycles, we can see a very clear seasonal feature. In 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, almost every year from June to October, Bitcoin has mostly been moving sideways and consolidating. During this extended consolidation period, market volatility typically gradually narrows to a range of 20% to 30%. Price action often needs to build momentum, and only from October to November does it truly break out into a clear direction.
If we focus our attention on two representative bear-market years—2018 and 2022—we can find striking similarities. In both years, after the initial period of sideways consolidation, the market launched its final selloff that triggered widespread panic in November, and that sequence ultimately succeeded in establishing a bottom. Although the magnitude of these bottom adjustments differed—2018 saw a 50% drop, while 2022 saw a 27% drop—the overall timing and rhythm were remarkably consistent. Based on these historical data, I infer that 2026 will likely see a similar ultimate pullback as well.
Delving into the deeper logic behind it, this kind of periodic anomaly is mainly closely related to the U.S. midterm elections held in November. Changes in policy direction brought about by the election process often serve as a key catalyst, which in turn leads to a significant amplification of volatility across the entire financial market.
August 12 Market Outlook: Tonight’s CPI Data Guidance and Recent Asset Price Movement Analysis
The CPI data to be released tonight has drawn significant attention, as it will directly serve as a key indicator for whether the September rate hike will be carried out. Broad expectations place the year-over-year CPI increase at 3.4%, and based on current market sentiment, the probability of implementing a rate hike in September is roughly 40%.
In the digital asset space, BTC and ETH are still maintaining a range-bound, choppy consolidation. The direction of any short-term breakout remains unclear. However, it’s worth noting that the recent performance of SOL/BTC appears particularly strong. This upward momentum is mainly driven by a steady stream of positive catalysts, including the Agave v4.2 network upgrade officially scheduled to be rolled out on August 17, as well as highly anticipated deflationary governance proposal(s) discussed in the market.
As for precious metals, after gold has carved out a stretch of consecutive rallying moves, it has now entered a consolidation and buildup phase. Since the current price still has room for further upside before reaching the anticipated target level of 4750, if the market subsequently sees a pullback, it could still be a good opportunity for investors to consider adding positions on dips.
In addition, looking at developments in regional stock markets, the Korean index has recently been in a rebound and recovery rhythm. For future trading observations, it’s recommended that everyone closely monitor and pay attention to potential technical resistance levels around the 7020 area.
The CPI data to be released tonight has drawn significant attention, as it will directly serve as a key indicator for whether the September rate hike will be carried out. Broad expectations place the year-over-year CPI increase at 3.4%, and based on current market sentiment, the probability of implementing a rate hike in September is roughly 40%.
In the digital asset space, BTC and ETH are still maintaining a range-bound, choppy consolidation. The direction of any short-term breakout remains unclear. However, it’s worth noting that the recent performance of SOL/BTC appears particularly strong. This upward momentum is mainly driven by a steady stream of positive catalysts, including the Agave v4.2 network upgrade officially scheduled to be rolled out on August 17, as well as highly anticipated deflationary governance proposal(s) discussed in the market.
As for precious metals, after gold has carved out a stretch of consecutive rallying moves, it has now entered a consolidation and buildup phase. Since the current price still has room for further upside before reaching the anticipated target level of 4750, if the market subsequently sees a pullback, it could still be a good opportunity for investors to consider adding positions on dips.
In addition, looking at developments in regional stock markets, the Korean index has recently been in a rebound and recovery rhythm. For future trading observations, it’s recommended that everyone closely monitor and pay attention to potential technical resistance levels around the 7020 area.
7.14 Rate-Hike Cycle Market Analysis
First, focus on developments at the macro level. South Korea will hold a central bank meeting on July 16. Current market expectations indicate that it will most likely announce a 25BB rate hike. At the same time, the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will take one more rate-hike action before the end of this year has already reached 70%.
In terms of the specific investment landscape, the storage sector has indeed seen a streak of consecutive declines in recent days. However, looking at the bigger trend, the sector is still firmly in a bull market. The recent pullback, in fact, offers a fairly good entry opportunity.
Finally, let’s discuss our long-term view on BTC. The current judgment is that the 60,000 level is not the true bottom, but rather the midsection of the market. After a round of repeated choppy consolidation, BTC is expected to follow the direction of the stock index into the final bear-market phase. There is still potential for a 50% drop in the future.
First, focus on developments at the macro level. South Korea will hold a central bank meeting on July 16. Current market expectations indicate that it will most likely announce a 25BB rate hike. At the same time, the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will take one more rate-hike action before the end of this year has already reached 70%.
In terms of the specific investment landscape, the storage sector has indeed seen a streak of consecutive declines in recent days. However, looking at the bigger trend, the sector is still firmly in a bull market. The recent pullback, in fact, offers a fairly good entry opportunity.
Finally, let’s discuss our long-term view on BTC. The current judgment is that the 60,000 level is not the true bottom, but rather the midsection of the market. After a round of repeated choppy consolidation, BTC is expected to follow the direction of the stock index into the final bear-market phase. There is still potential for a 50% drop in the future.
On May 18th, global financial assets showed a synchronized decline.
In the macro context of accelerated capital withdrawal, major markets continued their downward trajectory during today's early trading session, following significant sell-offs last week. Investors can observe that stock markets in Japan and South Korea, along with US index futures, precious metals, and the crypto space, are all experiencing a downward trend.
In terms of crypto assets, BTC and ETH have both fallen below critical support levels. This market action clearly indicates that the recent rebound that started from the 60k level has officially come to an end. Moving forward, the entire cryptocurrency market is expected to re-enter a bearish downtrend on a weekly basis, and given the current funding and technical landscape, it will be exceptionally difficult to reclaim the 79,200 high.
Looking ahead, BTC's immediate downside target will be to break below the 75,000 mark. Through this search for support, the asset's movement will create a more significant lower local bottom on the chart.
In the macro context of accelerated capital withdrawal, major markets continued their downward trajectory during today's early trading session, following significant sell-offs last week. Investors can observe that stock markets in Japan and South Korea, along with US index futures, precious metals, and the crypto space, are all experiencing a downward trend.
In terms of crypto assets, BTC and ETH have both fallen below critical support levels. This market action clearly indicates that the recent rebound that started from the 60k level has officially come to an end. Moving forward, the entire cryptocurrency market is expected to re-enter a bearish downtrend on a weekly basis, and given the current funding and technical landscape, it will be exceptionally difficult to reclaim the 79,200 high.
Looking ahead, BTC's immediate downside target will be to break below the 75,000 mark. Through this search for support, the asset's movement will create a more significant lower local bottom on the chart.
It seems like everyone's been chatting about whether the A-share market has hit its peak recently. If you take a closer look, you'll notice that the current A-share performance mirrors the trajectory of BTC when it reached 125,000. Both of these markets share a common trait: the momentum for breaking new highs is gradually fading, and the moving averages are starting to flatten out. Before a definitive top is established, the market often experiences a sharp and steep rally that draws in bullish funds, only to then kick off a significant downturn.
5.15 Market Dynamics Observation: Key Support Proves Effective Again.
Looking at the current market trends, BTC has confirmed support near the EMA20 moving average for the third time and has started a rebound. However, as the price pushes upward, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the resistance zone at 82800, located at the EMA200 moving average, which will be the primary hurdle ahead.
In contrast, ETH's recovery momentum seems relatively weak, still oscillating within the original range. After a prolonged period of sideways action, the order book in this consolidation zone has become quite dense. This suggests that if the price can break out effectively in the future, we could see a significant trend emerge.
Additionally, there’s a potential risk signal to be wary of. In the upcoming market shifts, if BTC successfully breaks out and makes new highs while ETH fails to do the same, this divergence often signals a false breakout. Everyone should remain highly vigilant about this possibility.
Looking at the current market trends, BTC has confirmed support near the EMA20 moving average for the third time and has started a rebound. However, as the price pushes upward, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the resistance zone at 82800, located at the EMA200 moving average, which will be the primary hurdle ahead.
In contrast, ETH's recovery momentum seems relatively weak, still oscillating within the original range. After a prolonged period of sideways action, the order book in this consolidation zone has become quite dense. This suggests that if the price can break out effectively in the future, we could see a significant trend emerge.
Additionally, there’s a potential risk signal to be wary of. In the upcoming market shifts, if BTC successfully breaks out and makes new highs while ETH fails to do the same, this divergence often signals a false breakout. Everyone should remain highly vigilant about this possibility.
5.10 Market Watch: The so-called 'ghost story' of altcoin season may have quietly arrived
Looking back over the past three years, countless traders have hoped for and predicted the arrival of altcoin season. However, each cry for it has ultimately ended in failure, leading most investors to firmly believe that, given the bear market environment, a frenzy of altcoins is out of the question.
Despite the general consensus, objective data indicators provide a starkly different signal. Whenever the combined market share of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC rises and hits the 82% mark, the market typically experiences varying degrees of an altcoin explosion shortly after. Observing this cycle, this phenomenon has been vividly evident in October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025.
Moreover, the current market movements are also worth noting. Various altcoins, especially smaller cap projects, have successfully initiated a weekly-level technical breakout. All signs seem to indicate that the market turning point, which many originally thought was unbelievable, may actually be approaching us.
Looking back over the past three years, countless traders have hoped for and predicted the arrival of altcoin season. However, each cry for it has ultimately ended in failure, leading most investors to firmly believe that, given the bear market environment, a frenzy of altcoins is out of the question.
Despite the general consensus, objective data indicators provide a starkly different signal. Whenever the combined market share of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC rises and hits the 82% mark, the market typically experiences varying degrees of an altcoin explosion shortly after. Observing this cycle, this phenomenon has been vividly evident in October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025.
Moreover, the current market movements are also worth noting. Various altcoins, especially smaller cap projects, have successfully initiated a weekly-level technical breakout. All signs seem to indicate that the market turning point, which many originally thought was unbelievable, may actually be approaching us.
5.8 Market Watch: Has This Round of Rebound Come to an End?
Recently, Bitcoin's upward trend has been consistently climbing along the 20-day moving average. Based on the current market data, BTC has already confirmed a resistance level at 82800. This value conveniently falls within the range of the daily EMA200. Looking back at previous bear market rebounds, we've seen similar technical patterns.
On the downside, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the key support level at 77800. This price not only marks a recent local low but also aligns perfectly with the daily EMA20.
The logic for judging the next market move is quite clear. Since the overall trend is supported by this moving average, if the price effectively breaks below the core defense line at 77800, it would mean that this round of rebound has officially come to an end. Conversely, as long as this support level holds up and stabilizes, BTC still has the potential to push upward again and retest the resistance level above.
Recently, Bitcoin's upward trend has been consistently climbing along the 20-day moving average. Based on the current market data, BTC has already confirmed a resistance level at 82800. This value conveniently falls within the range of the daily EMA200. Looking back at previous bear market rebounds, we've seen similar technical patterns.
On the downside, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the key support level at 77800. This price not only marks a recent local low but also aligns perfectly with the daily EMA20.
The logic for judging the next market move is quite clear. Since the overall trend is supported by this moving average, if the price effectively breaks below the core defense line at 77800, it would mean that this round of rebound has officially come to an end. Conversely, as long as this support level holds up and stabilizes, BTC still has the potential to push upward again and retest the resistance level above.
5.2 Market Dynamics and Trend Analysis: Bullish Defense Proves Effective
In the past two days of trading, the bulls have shown remarkable defensive resilience. Bitcoin found solid support as it retraced to the EMA20 moving average, with no significant breakdown occurring. The price quickly stabilized and resumed its upward momentum, confirming the strength of the EMA20 support. Delving into the reasons behind this, the robust performance of the U.S. stock market and the persistent negative funding rates for Bitcoin have been crucial in preventing further declines.
As the market evolves, the main battleground for trading has become clear. Based on recent tests, the pressure zone above is concentrated between 80,000 and 86,000, while the key support level below has been confirmed at the 75,000 mark.
#BTC #ETH
In the past two days of trading, the bulls have shown remarkable defensive resilience. Bitcoin found solid support as it retraced to the EMA20 moving average, with no significant breakdown occurring. The price quickly stabilized and resumed its upward momentum, confirming the strength of the EMA20 support. Delving into the reasons behind this, the robust performance of the U.S. stock market and the persistent negative funding rates for Bitcoin have been crucial in preventing further declines.
As the market evolves, the main battleground for trading has become clear. Based on recent tests, the pressure zone above is concentrated between 80,000 and 86,000, while the key support level below has been confirmed at the 75,000 mark.
#BTC #ETH
5.2 Market Watch: Bulls Successfully Defend
Looking back at the price action over the past couple of days, BTC dipped down to touch the EMA20 line and successfully attracted some buy support. The price not only avoided a significant breakdown but quickly stabilized and launched another upward assault. This process clearly validates the strong support power of the EMA20.
After several days of testing, the current market boundaries have fully emerged. Based on the present chart performance, the upper resistance zone has been confirmed at 80k-86k, while the core support level below is firmly set at 75k.
Looking back at the price action over the past couple of days, BTC dipped down to touch the EMA20 line and successfully attracted some buy support. The price not only avoided a significant breakdown but quickly stabilized and launched another upward assault. This process clearly validates the strong support power of the EMA20.
After several days of testing, the current market boundaries have fully emerged. Based on the present chart performance, the upper resistance zone has been confirmed at 80k-86k, while the core support level below is firmly set at 75k.
5.1 Market Dynamics: Bulls Are at a Critical Juncture
Currently, BTC has found solid support near the EMA20 moving average, entering a phase of sideways consolidation. The next directional choice is crucial: if the daily candlestick shows a substantial breakdown, it would signal the complete end of this rebound, with the bearish trend once again taking control. Conversely, if this support level can hold firm and drive prices higher, the market may very well see one last short squeeze.
Meanwhile, as the Q1 earnings reports from U.S. stocks roll in, the tech sector shows a clear divide. Google's stock price has surged significantly. However, due to massive investments in AI, Microsoft's and META's stock prices have faced sharp declines. Not only that, in the face of strong competition from Google's TPU chips, NVIDIA's stock has also seen a significant drop. All signs indicate that various funds are starting to develop significant divergences in their outlook on the AI sector.
Currently, BTC has found solid support near the EMA20 moving average, entering a phase of sideways consolidation. The next directional choice is crucial: if the daily candlestick shows a substantial breakdown, it would signal the complete end of this rebound, with the bearish trend once again taking control. Conversely, if this support level can hold firm and drive prices higher, the market may very well see one last short squeeze.
Meanwhile, as the Q1 earnings reports from U.S. stocks roll in, the tech sector shows a clear divide. Google's stock price has surged significantly. However, due to massive investments in AI, Microsoft's and META's stock prices have faced sharp declines. Not only that, in the face of strong competition from Google's TPU chips, NVIDIA's stock has also seen a significant drop. All signs indicate that various funds are starting to develop significant divergences in their outlook on the AI sector.
4.30 Market Dynamics Analysis: Warning on Deep Pullback Risks
During last night's trading session, traditional tech giants delivered a satisfactory earnings report, with Microsoft and Google's financial data shining brightly, and Intel's stock price also saw a significant surge. Currently, the entire financial market's chase for the AI concept has evolved into an extremely fervent state. However, in stark contrast to the hot atmosphere in the traditional tech sector, the crypto segment is experiencing a comprehensive downturn.
Focusing on BTC's specific price action, the recent upward bounce cycle has officially come to an end. Observing the one-hour candlestick chart, it's clear that the previous bullish ascending structure has completely collapsed, and the moving averages are transitioning from a bullish arrangement to a bearish-dominated downward formation.
Moreover, on the daily timeframe, BTC has now pulled back and touched the crucial EMA20 technical level. Moving forward, it's essential to remain vigilant; if the daily candlestick ultimately confirms a substantial breakdown below this support line, the market is expected to embark on a new downward trend. Please approach the market rationally and manage your risk appropriately.
During last night's trading session, traditional tech giants delivered a satisfactory earnings report, with Microsoft and Google's financial data shining brightly, and Intel's stock price also saw a significant surge. Currently, the entire financial market's chase for the AI concept has evolved into an extremely fervent state. However, in stark contrast to the hot atmosphere in the traditional tech sector, the crypto segment is experiencing a comprehensive downturn.
Focusing on BTC's specific price action, the recent upward bounce cycle has officially come to an end. Observing the one-hour candlestick chart, it's clear that the previous bullish ascending structure has completely collapsed, and the moving averages are transitioning from a bullish arrangement to a bearish-dominated downward formation.
Moreover, on the daily timeframe, BTC has now pulled back and touched the crucial EMA20 technical level. Moving forward, it's essential to remain vigilant; if the daily candlestick ultimately confirms a substantial breakdown below this support line, the market is expected to embark on a new downward trend. Please approach the market rationally and manage your risk appropriately.
The market watch report from April 27 indicates that we can expect a significant reversal in the bullish-bearish dynamics over the next month.
Looking back at recent price action, BTC has seen a four-week rally, and the price has steadily moved into the 80k to 86k resistance zone. On the market indicators front, the funding rate has rebounded from a previously deep negative range to a slightly negative level. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has emerged from extreme fear, successfully returning to a neutral state.
From the perspectives of the investor community, data from HYPE wallets shows a notable shift. Retail investors have shifted their positions from bearish to a slight bullish inclination, while the sentiment among large whale investors has changed from bullish to a more hesitant wait-and-see approach.
Overall, the current market sentiment has moved away from the extreme pessimistic bearish atmosphere and returned to neutral. In this environment, the market only needs one last surge to fully ignite retail participation, though this final sprint will also signal the complete end of this rally.
Looking back at recent price action, BTC has seen a four-week rally, and the price has steadily moved into the 80k to 86k resistance zone. On the market indicators front, the funding rate has rebounded from a previously deep negative range to a slightly negative level. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has emerged from extreme fear, successfully returning to a neutral state.
From the perspectives of the investor community, data from HYPE wallets shows a notable shift. Retail investors have shifted their positions from bearish to a slight bullish inclination, while the sentiment among large whale investors has changed from bullish to a more hesitant wait-and-see approach.
Overall, the current market sentiment has moved away from the extreme pessimistic bearish atmosphere and returned to neutral. In this environment, the market only needs one last surge to fully ignite retail participation, though this final sprint will also signal the complete end of this rally.
4.22 Market Analysis Firmly Repelling Bearish Forces
When many participants in the market begin to blindly follow trends, relying on their inherent experience to determine that the 78,000-point level is just a false breakout, we need to remain objective and calm. In fact, the overall bullish pattern of BTC has not undergone any substantial changes, and it has unknowingly basically recovered the previous decline space.
Looking ahead to the next trend, the next target for the market's impact will be above the 80,000 mark, and even touching 85,000 later is a completely logical expectation. The bearish forces currently in the market are bound to transform into fuel that accelerates price increases, providing strong momentum for the ascent. From an operational strategy perspective, when these bearish investors are forced to trigger stop-losses and exit the market, those specific price areas will also be the ideal positions for me to gradually reduce my long positions.
When many participants in the market begin to blindly follow trends, relying on their inherent experience to determine that the 78,000-point level is just a false breakout, we need to remain objective and calm. In fact, the overall bullish pattern of BTC has not undergone any substantial changes, and it has unknowingly basically recovered the previous decline space.
Looking ahead to the next trend, the next target for the market's impact will be above the 80,000 mark, and even touching 85,000 later is a completely logical expectation. The bearish forces currently in the market are bound to transform into fuel that accelerates price increases, providing strong momentum for the ascent. From an operational strategy perspective, when these bearish investors are forced to trigger stop-losses and exit the market, those specific price areas will also be the ideal positions for me to gradually reduce my long positions.
Exploring Market Trends on April 20: Is it a Reappearance of Past Trends or Does it Contain New Mysteries?
At this time point of April 20, the market's movements have sparked curiosity among everyone. Looking back at last week, BTC experienced a slight pullback after a wave of upward movement. This scene inevitably reminds one of the wave in January that reached 98000. The similarity between these two movements is striking; both occurred after successfully breaking through the consolidation area, consistently moving upwards to touch the weekly EMA20 indicator, and only then began to enter the pullback phase.
However, the development of financial markets often does not simply replicate the past. Recently, the price of BTC has already reached the threshold of 78000, which exactly meets my personal minimum expected value for this round of rebound. However, based on the current market performance, this upward trend does not seem to have reached a conclusion. To more objectively grasp the context of the market, I have set a clear reference standard: only when the daily candlestick genuinely and effectively breaks down below the EMA20 will I confirm that this rebound trend has truly declared an end.
At this time point of April 20, the market's movements have sparked curiosity among everyone. Looking back at last week, BTC experienced a slight pullback after a wave of upward movement. This scene inevitably reminds one of the wave in January that reached 98000. The similarity between these two movements is striking; both occurred after successfully breaking through the consolidation area, consistently moving upwards to touch the weekly EMA20 indicator, and only then began to enter the pullback phase.
However, the development of financial markets often does not simply replicate the past. Recently, the price of BTC has already reached the threshold of 78000, which exactly meets my personal minimum expected value for this round of rebound. However, based on the current market performance, this upward trend does not seem to have reached a conclusion. To more objectively grasp the context of the market, I have set a clear reference standard: only when the daily candlestick genuinely and effectively breaks down below the EMA20 will I confirm that this rebound trend has truly declared an end.
Recently, an unexpected phenomenon has emerged in the market. Many friends are comparing two recent market trends, and quite a few people believe that the current level of 78000 points will replicate the trend of the previous 98000 stage, followed by a significant drop.
In fact, relying purely on past trajectories to predict the future is likely to lead bearish investors to face huge losses. It is foreseeable that the price of BTC will not plummet directly as they wish; instead, it will at least rise to the 80,000 mark, and there is even a chance to advance towards 85,000. This round of upward momentum is bound to continue until those holding a bearish view completely change their mindset, from bears to bulls, before it comes to an end.
In fact, relying purely on past trajectories to predict the future is likely to lead bearish investors to face huge losses. It is foreseeable that the price of BTC will not plummet directly as they wish; instead, it will at least rise to the 80,000 mark, and there is even a chance to advance towards 85,000. This round of upward momentum is bound to continue until those holding a bearish view completely change their mindset, from bears to bulls, before it comes to an end.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again experienced an extremely severe cliff-like crash. It is undeniable that contract trading itself carries a high degree of speculative nature, and participants should be mentally prepared for both profits and losses. However, this unusually rapid decline has strong characteristics of malicious intervention by main funds. Therefore, we sincerely suggest that Binance officials intervene in the investigation, carefully verify those fund accounts suspected of manipulating prices, to confirm whether they have any hidden interests associated with the project team. @cz_binance @heyibinance
April 17 Market Situation Comprehensive Analysis
In the cryptocurrency market on April 17, altcoins experienced a comprehensive market explosion, especially the MEME sector which showed extremely active trends. Specifically, projects including ORDI, siren, and based all doubled in price within just one day. This round of sharp price increase indicates that major funds are actively seizing the opportunity to lift the market.
Turning our attention to Bitcoin, we find that there is a certain divergence between market sentiment and price trends. Currently, the bearish sentiment among retail investors regarding BTC still predominates. This psychological expectation is reflected not only in the continuously negative funding rates but also intuitively in the imbalanced long-short ratio data of 0.76.
However, from a technical perspective, the market's performance remains very optimistic. On an hourly basis, Bitcoin's bullish trend continues to steadily persist. Observing yesterday's daily trend, the market recorded a long lower shadow and broke down through the lowest point of the past two days during trading. In technical analysis, this is quite a positive bullish signal. Based on the characteristics of the market mentioned above, we expect that the significant threshold of 76000 may be successfully breached by the bulls at any time.
In the cryptocurrency market on April 17, altcoins experienced a comprehensive market explosion, especially the MEME sector which showed extremely active trends. Specifically, projects including ORDI, siren, and based all doubled in price within just one day. This round of sharp price increase indicates that major funds are actively seizing the opportunity to lift the market.
Turning our attention to Bitcoin, we find that there is a certain divergence between market sentiment and price trends. Currently, the bearish sentiment among retail investors regarding BTC still predominates. This psychological expectation is reflected not only in the continuously negative funding rates but also intuitively in the imbalanced long-short ratio data of 0.76.
However, from a technical perspective, the market's performance remains very optimistic. On an hourly basis, Bitcoin's bullish trend continues to steadily persist. Observing yesterday's daily trend, the market recorded a long lower shadow and broke down through the lowest point of the past two days during trading. In technical analysis, this is quite a positive bullish signal. Based on the characteristics of the market mentioned above, we expect that the significant threshold of 76000 may be successfully breached by the bulls at any time.
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