The probability of falling from where we are to 107-108k is higher (63%) compared to the probability of rising to 117k (37%). In the event of a drop, the probability of going down from 108k to 101-102k is 54% versus the probability of bouncing at 107-108k which is 46%.
In the long term, from now to several months ahead, the probability of rising remains very high (71%). Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Play with the mathematical odds in your favor. Greetings to all my followers.
BullishBallers
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$BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) is still in a no-trading zone.
Either Bitcoin reclaims the $115,000 level, or it'll dump towards the $108,000 zone. 💪💪💪💪💪 In case the $108K level doesn't hold, Bitcoin could drop towards $100,000.
Many people ask me about cycle prices and I have calculated with my method and I get the following values for BTC, Nasdaq, and XRP for this cycle:
Nasdaq: I estimate the maximum peak at 26,759 points BTC: I estimate the maximum peak at 139,952 dollars XRP: I estimate the maximum peak at 4.35 dollars
I have also calculated the probability of a market Crash occurring in 2026, which has a probability of 85.4% of happening in 2026. Next year it is very likely that the Bear Market will begin.
As for Q4 of 2025, I estimate a probability of 72.7% of continuing to rise until the end of the year, regarding current prices. Because of this, I have made this post bullish for the coming months.
If I had to bet on two months in 2026 where we will most likely see that Crash next year, I would say March and/or September.
We will see the bottom of the Bear Market in Q2-Q3 2027.
As I always say, expect the best and prepare for the worst.
Regards to all.
Nebular
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Bearish
$BTC As I mentioned, this August, especially in the second half of this month, serious declines were going to occur. There are certain probabilities that these declines will extend into the first week of September. For now, let's focus on August and we will calculate September better later.
I regret to inform you that in the short term we will continue to decline; I have calculated the probability of continuing to decrease in the coming days, and it came out to 71% probability of continuing to drop. I expect BTC to reach 109-110k, which we will reach in the form of a wick in the coming days or weeks. Remember that we have strong support at 114-115k in BTC.
As for the medium term, looking several months ahead, the probability of an increase currently stands at 79%. That’s why I have high hopes to see significant recoveries and increases by the end of the year due to such high probabilities. Because of this, I believe August could be a good month to buy and wait a few months to sell for a bit of profit.
I wouldn't expect much from 2026; I believe it will be around mid-2026 when we see the bear market.
still, we are in time to see a new ATH in BTC, in XRP we might be above 3.4 again... there are more chances to rise until the end of the year than to fall
Kindra Schell RMPR
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Is it complicated already for this year? I mean a big increase.
Poor is the one who does not see what is coming with XRP...
ShamaNaz
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🚨💥 BREAKING: RIPPLE’S U.S. BANKING LICENSE GOES PUBLIC A NEW ERA FOR $XRP BEGINS! 💼🔥
The crypto world is BUZZING Ripple Labs just took a monumental leap toward becoming a fully regulated U.S. bank! 🇺🇸🏦 The OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) has officially listed Ripple’s “National Trust Bank Charter” application on its public registry confirming Ripple’s push to blend blockchain innovation with traditional banking infrastructure. 💳💥 💡 WHAT THIS MEANS: Ripple isn’t just building payment solutions anymore it’s building the future of digital banking. If approved, the Ripple National Trust Bank will give the company the ability to: ✅ Custody digital assets (like $XRP and stablecoins) ✅ Serve institutional clients directly ✅ Offer on/off ramps for global payments ✅ Operate under full U.S. federal regulation This move could turn Ripple into a crypto-banking powerhouse, bridging the gap between blockchain, banks, and global liquidity. 🌐💸 🔥 WHY THIS IS HUGE FOR $XRP: Ripple’s biggest strength has always been real-world utility, not speculation. And this new banking license means: 💰 Direct access to the U.S. financial system 🌍 Legitimacy in the eyes of regulators and institutions ⚡ Faster, cheaper global settlements powered by XRP Ledger 🏛️ Compliance-ready infrastructure for governments and banks This could open the door for massive adoption from cross-border payments to CBDC partnerships all powered by XRP liquidity. 🚀 🧠 A STRATEGIC MASTERSTROKE: While others fight legal battles or chase hype coins, Ripple is building the foundation of the next financial era regulated, interoperable, and blockchain-driven. Ripple’s strategy now aligns perfectly with global trends: U.S. and EU pushing for digital asset regulation Central banks exploring tokenized money systems Financial institutions seeking trusted crypto partners With this trust charter, Ripple positions itself as the bridge between traditional finance and the decentralized economy. 💼🌍 📈 MARKET IMPACT: Traders and analysts are already calling this “the most bullish fundamental catalyst for $XRP in years.” This could be the spark that pushes XRP to reclaim its top-tier crypto status, especially as utility-driven demand grows. 💥 If approved, Ripple’s Trust Bank could make $XRP the first digital asset with true institutional-grade backing under U.S. banking law. 💬 FINAL TAKE: This isn’t just Ripple getting a license It’s crypto earning its seat at the banking table. 🏦✨ $XRP is no longer just a token it’s the backbone of a regulated financial revolution. 🚀 #Ripple #XRP #CPIWatch #Crypto #blockchain
don't buy memes, that's what you should do. buy serious things.
Alezito50x
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I BOUGHT $PEPE when IT FELL to $0.00000960, I BOUGHT $PEPE when IT FELL to $0.0000090, I BOUGHT $PEPE when IT FELL to $0.0000068, Now it won't stop FALLING 😭😭 I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO!
Binance has taken this asset seriously and delisted it!!! Does not comply with MiCa.
Pay Portal
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Bro Just lost everything even he use $PAXG which is backed by Real gold. So who is responsible for this massive loss? And look at chart It's a clear manipulation. where real gold doesn’t move a little here people got liquidated. Binance should watch this matter seriously. {future}(PAXGUSDT)
I usually don't do them because people don't read them or value them. If you want me to make an analysis of the short/medium term, with projections of prices going down and up, tell me and I'll do it.
Kindra Schell RMPR
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How's it going Nebular? How are your analyses for these months going?
hahaha SOL what is the source of all memes? BTC which is slow and expensive in its transfers and very energy inefficient? ETH which does not comply with the ISO and is inflationary?
lispalalieco
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xrp is not worth it bet on btc wld sol ethereum, etc
Swift confirmed that it was going to test with Line. Swift confirmed that if used, it would be for message exchange, it is not valid for liquidity. It does not comply with ISO 20022.
Shah-kaghan
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SWIFT confirms $LINEA blockchain for payment settlement. If this is true it will see a huge increase in price. $XRP was thought to be used for this purpose, but still its etf might give it a push similar for $SOL .
OM is a very good RWA project and if you informed yourself a little about what will happen before January 15, 2026 you would know. It will rise again over time and surpass the dollar.
it is possible, but I think it will be in 3 or 4 months, not now.
من أنت
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Bearish
$BTC $XRP $BNB Upcoming political events are inevitable; the market will be destroyed again 👉 Remember my words well 👉 Bitcoin will drop again to 70 or lower, and other currencies will follow. The situation may continue for several months ....
$BTC It's incredible the weakness of Bitcoin, I sell some sad 50 BTC at market and the price drops. Is this the "digital gold"?
It has reached where it has reached because of its dominance that drags its competition and because everyone buys it because "it always goes up" and is "the digital gold", but really nowadays it is for me a MEME coin, it is neither gold nor does it always go up.
It is neither worth as a refuge, nor worth for transmitting money, its transfers are slow and expensive, energy inefficient, it is inflationary until 2140.
Guys, there are coins a thousand times better and with real-world use and it is not BTC, open your minds.
it seems like a technical rebound and not a trend change
CryptoDeon
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Bullish
$BTC /USDT: Bear Trap Reversal or Next Leg Up? Bitcoin is flashing signs of a classic bear trap reversal. Strong rebound + rising volume = buyers taking charge. Eyes on $113,500 breakout if confirmed, $115K+ is in play.
Entry: $112,900 – $112,500 or (current)
Take Profits:
TP1: $113,500 (quick scalp)
TP2: $114,000 (psych level)
TP3: $114,100 (extended)
Stop Loss: $111,400
Buy and Trade $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)
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