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Bitcoin Cycle Scenario 2026: What Could Happen in the Next 6 Months
I have noticed that many people have been talking about a familiar scenario for Bitcoin $BTC in 2026, based on previous cycles.
Personally, I do not consider this a prediction or trading plan, but rather a way to frame the market in a more observable time frame.
According to cyclical logic, February is usually a period of accumulation. The market is quiet, there are no exciting news, and it is during this time that the most patient individuals start to buy quietly.
Personally, I do not consider this a prediction or trading plan, but rather a way to frame the market in a more observable time frame.
According to cyclical logic, February is usually a period of accumulation. The market is quiet, there are no exciting news, and it is during this time that the most patient individuals start to buy quietly.
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Instead of receiving a default commission before, now Binance will set it according to the level of 30-40-50% depending on the level you achieve.
Commission upgrade: Can occur daily – just meet the criteria, and the system will automatically upgrade the next day.
Bitcoin compared to gold: why I believe BTC is in a rare opportunity zone
Bitcoin compared to gold: why I believe BTC is in a rare opportunity zone
Recently, I noticed that Bitcoin $BTC just hit a record low when compared to gold in January.
If only looking at the USD price, there is nothing too special, but when placing $BTC next to gold and adjusting for global money supply, this level of deviation becomes quite extreme.
The BTC/gold ratio has now fallen into a range that previously only appeared near major lows.
Recently, I noticed that Bitcoin $BTC just hit a record low when compared to gold in January.
If only looking at the USD price, there is nothing too special, but when placing $BTC next to gold and adjusting for global money supply, this level of deviation becomes quite extreme.
The BTC/gold ratio has now fallen into a range that previously only appeared near major lows.
BTC – The extreme cycle index is cooling down, not collapsing
💥 BTC – The extreme cycle index is cooling down, not collapsing
I am currently seeing the extreme cycle index retreating around 28%, which means it has officially left the overbought zone of the upward trend. For me, this is an important signal.
In previous cycles, such phases were often not endings, but rather times when the market self 'unloads pressure': excess leverage is eliminated, late FOMO positions gradually disappear, while the overall macro structure remains intact.
I am currently seeing the extreme cycle index retreating around 28%, which means it has officially left the overbought zone of the upward trend. For me, this is an important signal.
In previous cycles, such phases were often not endings, but rather times when the market self 'unloads pressure': excess leverage is eliminated, late FOMO positions gradually disappear, while the overall macro structure remains intact.
In the last 24 hours, there have been more than T, with 239.951 traders liquidated, and the total liquidation value is 975m.
The fear and greed index has also dropped to 26, if this index is below 20, the market is likely to reverse,
Currently, I am gradually buying a little spot. At this time, if anyone is fomoing gold or silver, they are all in trouble. According to my friends, is this the bottom yet?
The fear and greed index has also dropped to 26, if this index is below 20, the market is likely to reverse,
Currently, I am gradually buying a little spot. At this time, if anyone is fomoing gold or silver, they are all in trouble. According to my friends, is this the bottom yet?
Vanar Chain compared to Ethereum, Solana, Base: Speed & much lower fees
When comparing @Vanarchain to Ethereum, Solana, or Base, I think the most important thing is not who is the fastest on the slide or who is the cheapest at a quiet market moment, but rather how that speed and cost are designed to serve what type of behavior.
Each of these chains is born with a different assumption about users, and that assumption determines everything behind.
Ethereum, in its current position, no longer needs to prove itself as fast or cheap.
Each of these chains is born with a different assumption about users, and that assumption determines everything behind.
Ethereum, in its current position, no longer needs to prove itself as fast or cheap.
If Plasma succeeds, what does that say about current L2?
If @Plasma is really successful, in my opinion, it will not be a story of 'Plasma wins - L2 loses'.
It will say something deeper and much more uncomfortable: the foundational assumptions that current L2 is based on are no longer valid for all types of applications.
And Plasma's existence is not an exception, but a natural reaction of the ecosystem when those assumptions begin to hit a ceiling.
It will say something deeper and much more uncomfortable: the foundational assumptions that current L2 is based on are no longer valid for all types of applications.
And Plasma's existence is not an exception, but a natural reaction of the ecosystem when those assumptions begin to hit a ceiling.
The Role of Bitcoin in the Current Monetary Cycle
We are at a stage where the probability of Bitcoin continuing to rise in the long term seems higher than the chance of it returning below $20,000, although no scenario is certain.
At the end of 2022, when Bitcoin hovered around $16,000, I suggested that the $100,000 mark within a few years was feasible and that period could be a relatively good buying zone. Looking back, this assessment is not too extreme, but at that time it was still seen as unrealistic by many outside the market.
At the end of 2022, when Bitcoin hovered around $16,000, I suggested that the $100,000 mark within a few years was feasible and that period could be a relatively good buying zone. Looking back, this assessment is not too extreme, but at that time it was still seen as unrealistic by many outside the market.
Many brothers look at the TVL of @Vanarchain at this time and it still hasn't reached significant numbers compared to many leading ecosystems.
What I find noteworthy is the capital that Vanar $VANRY is attracting, reflecting a very specific direction: not locking tokens for yield farming that farmers jump into, but locking assets to serve entertainment applications, RWA, and PayFi without any constraints.
Personally, I believe the goal of $100M TVL by 2026 is quite feasible. First, it is the adoption from entertainment applications and the creator economy.
Second, RWA/PayFi solutions with high compliance are beginning to run on Vanar, making organizations and funds feel comfortable putting large assets into the system.
At that point, the figure of 100M will be feasible and will accurately reflect real usage value. As long as the Vanar team keeps steady at the helm, focusing on development and the actual user base, reaching the hundred million mark before 2026 is entirely within reach, my friends.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
What I find noteworthy is the capital that Vanar $VANRY is attracting, reflecting a very specific direction: not locking tokens for yield farming that farmers jump into, but locking assets to serve entertainment applications, RWA, and PayFi without any constraints.
Personally, I believe the goal of $100M TVL by 2026 is quite feasible. First, it is the adoption from entertainment applications and the creator economy.
Second, RWA/PayFi solutions with high compliance are beginning to run on Vanar, making organizations and funds feel comfortable putting large assets into the system.
At that point, the figure of 100M will be feasible and will accurately reflect real usage value. As long as the Vanar team keeps steady at the helm, focusing on development and the actual user base, reaching the hundred million mark before 2026 is entirely within reach, my friends.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
Why can Plasma benefit in a bear market?
In my experience during bear market seasons, I often notice one thing: projects that rely on old stories weaken very quickly, while projects that are truly building can survive, such as @Plasma .
When the market declines, speculative activities drop sharply. However, stablecoins are still used: to preserve value, transfer money, make payments, and wait. That demand does not disappear with the cycle. It just becomes quieter.
Plasma $XPL is one of the layer 1 solutions with low fees that can be used without needing a native token, making it very convenient and focusing on stablecoin transfers, which makes it less dependent on market excitement.
Of course, a bear market also exposes weaknesses. Low revenue, reduced incentives, and the patience of validators are tested.
In my opinion, if Plasma can maintain well during periods of low liquidity, then when the market rises again, it is quite a promising project, guys.
@Plasma #Plasma $XPL
In my experience during bear market seasons, I often notice one thing: projects that rely on old stories weaken very quickly, while projects that are truly building can survive, such as @Plasma .
When the market declines, speculative activities drop sharply. However, stablecoins are still used: to preserve value, transfer money, make payments, and wait. That demand does not disappear with the cycle. It just becomes quieter.
Plasma $XPL is one of the layer 1 solutions with low fees that can be used without needing a native token, making it very convenient and focusing on stablecoin transfers, which makes it less dependent on market excitement.
Of course, a bear market also exposes weaknesses. Low revenue, reduced incentives, and the patience of validators are tested.
In my opinion, if Plasma can maintain well during periods of low liquidity, then when the market rises again, it is quite a promising project, guys.
@Plasma #Plasma $XPL
After a heated uptrend, the market faces a short-term downtrend
The downtrend cycle is gradually revealing itself, not necessarily due to a specific shock but because the market structure is starting to weaken after a prolonged upward phase. As leverage accumulates and liquidity contracts, even small corrections can create a more pronounced sense of instability than before.
In the next 30 days, if $BTC hits levels like $83,000 or $78,000, they could respectively become psychological testing zones, where the market continuously reassesses its risk appetite. The scenario of a deeper pullback to 61k4 sounds difficult, but for me, it still falls within a range of possibility if the downtrend continues to be reinforced.
In the next 30 days, if $BTC hits levels like $83,000 or $78,000, they could respectively become psychological testing zones, where the market continuously reassesses its risk appetite. The scenario of a deeper pullback to 61k4 sounds difficult, but for me, it still falls within a range of possibility if the downtrend continues to be reinforced.
Binance's SAFU Fund transfers 1 billion USD to Bitcoin, how does the market react?
In March 2023, Binance announced the restructuring of the SAFU Fund with a total value of about 1 billion USD, converting most of its assets to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and $BNB .
At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a weakened phase following a series of events that led to the collapse of many large institutions, low liquidity, and cautious investor sentiment.
In the following months, Bitcoin $BTC recorded an increase of about 250%, Ethereum rose by about 200%.
At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a weakened phase following a series of events that led to the collapse of many large institutions, low liquidity, and cautious investor sentiment.
In the following months, Bitcoin $BTC recorded an increase of about 250%, Ethereum rose by about 200%.
Bitcoin is consolidating, but liquidity is quietly concentrating
Bitcoin: I am noticing that the whale structure is changing.
Looking at the on-chain data from the past few days, I see wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more are quietly increasing their holdings. The total number of $BTC controlled by this group is currently around 7.17 million, the highest in four months.
At the same time, transactions over 1 million USD are appearing more frequently. To me, this resembles a capital rotation process more than a distribution. Usually, when whales are still trading heavily but have not withdrawn liquidity from the market, they are repositioning rather than offloading.
Looking at the on-chain data from the past few days, I see wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more are quietly increasing their holdings. The total number of $BTC controlled by this group is currently around 7.17 million, the highest in four months.
At the same time, transactions over 1 million USD are appearing more frequently. To me, this resembles a capital rotation process more than a distribution. Usually, when whales are still trading heavily but have not withdrawn liquidity from the market, they are repositioning rather than offloading.
BTC loses main support, investors shift to defense
$BTC has officially lost the important support zone.
However, the bottom level of November is still intact, not breached. This is the last boundary keeping the medium-term structure from completely collapsing.
In the current context, the most positive scenario that the bulls can hope for is that prices start to stabilize and that no additional aggressive selling occurs after this breakdown.
If the market has a technical rebound back to the lost zone and reacts well enough, then it will be worth discussing the possibility of a reversal.
However, the bottom level of November is still intact, not breached. This is the last boundary keeping the medium-term structure from completely collapsing.
In the current context, the most positive scenario that the bulls can hope for is that prices start to stabilize and that no additional aggressive selling occurs after this breakdown.
If the market has a technical rebound back to the lost zone and reacts well enough, then it will be worth discussing the possibility of a reversal.
Vision 2026: Vanar Chain wants to become the 'backbone' of the entertainment industry
vanar eco
When talking about the vision for 2026 of @Vanarchain , I think the most important question is not how many games they will release or how many big IPs they will sign, but rather: Does Vanar really want to become another entertainment platform, or do they want to be the 'backbone' of the entire digital entertainment industry?
These two concepts are often confused, but the consequences are entirely different.
The entertainment platform survives on content and attention. The backbone survives on the entire system being forced to operate based on it, even when the end users have no idea what it's called.
When talking about the vision for 2026 of @Vanarchain , I think the most important question is not how many games they will release or how many big IPs they will sign, but rather: Does Vanar really want to become another entertainment platform, or do they want to be the 'backbone' of the entire digital entertainment industry?
These two concepts are often confused, but the consequences are entirely different.
The entertainment platform survives on content and attention. The backbone survives on the entire system being forced to operate based on it, even when the end users have no idea what it's called.
Why investors are starting to pull back before altcoin season
If it had been a little slower, the market picture at this moment could have been very different. At that time, $BTC traded around the 95–96k region, while Ethereum was around 3,300 USD.
From the outside, the market still seems relatively positive: prices are high, supporting information appears frequently, and the story of 'altcoin season' is widely mentioned. However, signals on larger time frames indicate a more cautious perspective.
From the outside, the market still seems relatively positive: prices are high, supporting information appears frequently, and the story of 'altcoin season' is widely mentioned. However, signals on larger time frames indicate a more cautious perspective.
Plasma – Native chain for stablecoins in the RWA era?
When talking about RWA, I often see stablecoins regarded as a layer that has 'done its job'. Everyone uses it, everyone understands it, so the narrative quickly jumps to tokenized bonds, on-chain stocks, or digital investment funds.
But the more closely I observe, the more I see that stablecoins are actually the largest RWA that has truly operated at a global scale, and also the place where infrastructure begins to reveal its clearest limits.
From that perspective, the question of whether @Plasma is the native chain for stablecoins in the RWA era is not merely a slogan, but hits on a very real issue.
Bitcoin Analysis Enters a New Phase: Liquidity, Safe-Haven Role, and Reversal Expectations
I focus on monitoring liquidity. There are two price zones that I am really interested in and ready to significantly increase my buying scale at $BTC the 75–80k zone, and in a more negative scenario, a retest of the EMA200 line around 60–65k.
From a trading perspective, Bitcoin is gradually being positioned by the market as a safe-haven asset, with its price behavior increasingly resembling that of traditional commodities.
I believe the likelihood of a reversal phase occurring within the next 2–4 months is high.
From a trading perspective, Bitcoin is gradually being positioned by the market as a safe-haven asset, with its price behavior increasingly resembling that of traditional commodities.
I believe the likelihood of a reversal phase occurring within the next 2–4 months is high.
Vanar Chain vs Ethereum: The core differences you need to know
I was browsing Square and saw quite a few people discussing @Vanarchain with Ethereum; the interesting point is not to start from throughput or fees, but from the initial assumptions of each system.
Ethereum is built as an open platform for all types of behavior: DeFi, NFT, DAO, financial experimentation. Vanar is not. It starts from a narrower question: how to make high-interaction applications run smoothly.
The first difference lies in data handling. Ethereum keeps almost everything on-chain to ensure composability and neutrality, while $VANRY accepts layer separation: on-chain retains what is needed for integrity, off-chain handles heavy and continuously changing data. In return, it provides faster responses and more stable costs for end users.
From my perspective, the second difference is the prioritization of experience. Ethereum accepts friction as a consequence of an open system. Vanar tries to make that friction disappear, especially in games and entertainment.
In my opinion, Vanar does not replace Ethereum. It exists for use cases that Ethereum, due to its own philosophy, does not prioritize, so each project has its own strengths, my friends.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
I was browsing Square and saw quite a few people discussing @Vanarchain with Ethereum; the interesting point is not to start from throughput or fees, but from the initial assumptions of each system.
Ethereum is built as an open platform for all types of behavior: DeFi, NFT, DAO, financial experimentation. Vanar is not. It starts from a narrower question: how to make high-interaction applications run smoothly.
The first difference lies in data handling. Ethereum keeps almost everything on-chain to ensure composability and neutrality, while $VANRY accepts layer separation: on-chain retains what is needed for integrity, off-chain handles heavy and continuously changing data. In return, it provides faster responses and more stable costs for end users.
From my perspective, the second difference is the prioritization of experience. Ethereum accepts friction as a consequence of an open system. Vanar tries to make that friction disappear, especially in games and entertainment.
In my opinion, Vanar does not replace Ethereum. It exists for use cases that Ethereum, due to its own philosophy, does not prioritize, so each project has its own strengths, my friends.
@Vanarchain #vanar $VANRY
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