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#BTC #ETH Past Performance:

Understanding Coin Cat, Binance Smart Money: 1st in November, 3rd in December, 1st in 90 days
Total profit of 15 million over 2 months, large funds quadrupled in 2 months
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#BTC #ETH

Some thoughts and reflections on the market outlook

After the significant one-sided drop at the end of January, it is impossible for us to continue a one-sided market after taking profits from the short position; the possibility of a one-sided move either upwards or downwards in the short term is very small.

In February and March, the likelihood is high that we will experience a period of fluctuations and corrections, waiting for the volatility to decrease before choosing to move upwards or downwards.

At this point, a better strategy is to abandon one-sided movements and patterns; the profits from fluctuations can also be substantial, but the prerequisite is to avoid greed and actively take profits.

After a few more candlesticks, structural signals will begin to appear; this is when we observe and enter the market. This time, a rebound from the lowest point of 60,000 by 20% is 72,000, and a rebound of 30% is 78,000, which are also relatively valuable reference points.

For long-term BTC, I do not believe that this is the bottom of this bear market; the bottoming process cannot be completed in a short time, and the probability of a sharp bottom is relatively low. From BTC's historical perspective, this position is not the most desperate point for users; when users are most desperate and the market is completely ignored and withering, that is the best time for us to enter and catch the bottom. During this process, maintaining a swing trading approach is sufficient.

At the same time, BTC's four-year cycle has not yet been broken; the cycle is like a heavy truck driving fast; there will be a transition process from rapid driving to complete stop.

#BTC #ETH

Mark Twain once said: History does not repeat details, but the process is similar
Trends do not overlap, but historical models are roughly similar

Each round of a bull market will not overlap the trends of the previous bull market
The bull market from 2019 to 2021 will not overlap with the one from 2015 to 2017

The period from 2023 to 2025 will also not overlap with the bull market from 2019 to 2021

But the models will be roughly similar
The first batch of investors will layout in advance
The second batch of speculators will buy on the rise
The last batch of ordinary people will buy at high positions
This model will never change
This is the essence of the cyclical cycle.

#白银 #PAXG

I have never seen a product fluctuate 40% from high to low in a single day. Silver has been memed.

Leveraged positions were almost wiped out overnight.

From AMC's history, the sentiment is completely similar to when AMC peaked.

With such a large market capitalization, silver can fluctuate 40 points in a day. It wouldn't be surprising if Bitcoin also fluctuates 40% in a day in the future.

In the face of sentiment, market capitalization is overlooked.

#BTC #ETH

A wave of market trends, one transaction, regardless of success or failure, is but a drop in the ocean of your long career, with millions of trades. Do not be elated by a single success, nor be overly distressed by a single failure.

Face each trade's profits and losses calmly, do not have a gambling mentality, do not aspire for overnight wealth, adhere to trading discipline; each stop-loss is the cost of doing business, and each profit is the market's reward for our discipline.

A tranquil heart is always the strongest weapon of a professional trader. When you become impatient, blind, fearful, and anxious due to changes in the market and assets, whether you earn or lose, you have already lost. The waves of the market will infinitely amplify your emotions, leaving you exhausted and delivering a fatal blow.

#BTC #ETH

When trading, many people like to listen to various macro news
Are institutions building positions, large transfers in and out on-chain
Interest rates are going to drop, or they are going to rise, how is employment doing
Are insiders and whales increasing their positions long or short again
It sounds like there is a causal relationship

But in reality, it has no necessary connection to your next bet, how much you bet, whether you lose or win
In fact, there is no necessary connection, and it also has no necessary connection to whether you are profitable in the long term

The only good thing is that it provides some psychological comfort, allowing you to shift the blame to not understanding the macro situation well enough.

#BTC #ETH

The essence of a bull market's madness is the collective psychology reaching a boiling point.

When market sentiment is in an extreme state, prices can surge or plummet even if the fundamentals have not changed.

Enter the market before consensus forms, exit before consensus collapses.

Mean reversion is like the tide; the higher the tide rises, the greater the force of the retreat. The extent of a bear market's decline depends on how high a bull market's rise is.

Stay away from any currencies that deviate too far from the annual line.

#黄金 #白银 #美股

The rebound in silver at the daily level may have already failed.

Purely from a trend-following strategy perspective, silver has long been in a short trend on the 4-hour chart.
If silver rebounds higher, it may enter a good opportunity for shorting at the daily level.
This wave may potentially produce a confirmation signal for a top at the daily level of silver.

My short-term view on the U.S. stock market remains bearish. I have become cautious since the beginning of the New Year in 2026, waiting for a good opportunity.

#BTC #ETH

There is only one peak in a bull market
There is only one bottom in a bear market

In my trading system
Continuously bottom-fishing and peaking is the worst trading method
No exceptions

Seeing friends on various social platforms rushing to bottom-fish and getting wiped out, I felt compelled to express my thoughts.

#BTC #ETH

This market is too dreamy

Now I can earn the money I used to earn in a year every month

Upwards is a bull market, downwards is also a bull market

What we fear the most is actually the lack of volatility

#BTC #ETH

Unstoppable

#solana

Based on my previous round of buying SOL at 20

In this round, I will place a buy order between 20 and 40

That's not excessive, right?

#BTC #ETH

Why do people like to bottom fish so much?

Why?

#BTC

Each wave is higher than the last, a solid bull market is on the way.

#ETH

The struggle of people depends on the environment, and the rise and fall of currencies also depends on the background.

The times create heroes; in peaceful times, it is easy to produce traitors. Different periods have different narratives.

In a limited context, it is easier to see the connections of events. Similarly, the rise and fall of currencies also conforms to this historical pattern in the context of cycles.

Speaking of Ethereum, the current trend has reached a visible long-term support level, which is also the starting point of the previous round of Ethereum's rise. We mentioned in the live broadcast that the visible daily K chart looks relatively weak. If there is an additional channel breakdown, the probability of institutions offloading here is very high, regardless of the price at which institutions are offloading. The next few K candles are crucial, so keep a close watch.

Support exchange, rise and fall exchange; the same structure with different backgrounds can produce completely different trends.

#黄金 #PAXG

High volatility periods should be short

Low volatility periods should be long

Seeing is believing, and you will gain more profit

#sol

In the last round, my average buying price for SOL was 20U. Two months later, it rose to 60U, making me three times my investment. I thought this was a successful investment, but later everyone knew that SOL peaked at 300😤😤

This is investment; no trade can be perfect, and there will always be regrets.

SOL has reached a key support position in a long cycle.
Its price has been hovering near the highest price at the top for nearly 2 years.
Once it breaks below the long cycle's top area, it will be an excellent opportunity for us to lay out short positions.

Now I need to consider whether the fluctuation time of SOL itself is sufficient. In the last round, I bought SOL at 20U.

I also hope this round's market bottom can provide a very good position so we can all go in together.