0xMomo

$75K has broken down, but on-chain data gave me an interesting signal.

Check the funding rates. BTC's funding rate is currently a positive 0.005%, with bulls defending around 70K. But take a look at the altcoins: SOL -0.014%, AVAX -0.015%, LINK -0.008%, all showing negative rates. At the same time, in the same market, one side is the bulls holding their ground, while the other side is the bears circling.

What does this indicate? Leverage funds are diverging. BTC bulls see 70K as the bottom line and are willing to pay funding rates to hold their positions. On the altcoin side, bears are increasing their positions, waiting for BTC to drag the entire market down for a harvest.

Open Interest confirms this. Bitfinex data shows that OI has dropped 14% since May 15, returning to levels seen on April 11. Leverage is contracting, but there’s no panic liquidation. This drop feels more like a 'repricing post-de-leveraging' rather than a waterfall.

Hyblock's retail long-short ratio is a double-edged sword. Currently, retail long positions are at 62%, and historical backtesting shows that at this level, there’s an 82% probability of being up seven days later, with a median return of 3.6%. However, 62% is also a position where retail traders can easily get trapped. Retail is betting on a rebound, but the institutions are selling on the other side.

In the past seven days, ETFs have seen an outflow of $1.5 billion, with over $200 million sold just yesterday. Coinbase is trading at a discount, turning negative, and Bitfinex calls this a 'structural warning signal.' The demand for spot on Coinbase during the ETF era has been replaced by institutional activity through OTC and structured products; the discount indicates that retail is running, while institutions are waiting on the sidelines.

Tomorrow, May 29, is PCE data day. The market is waiting for this catalyst. If inflation exceeds expectations, the bull defense line may be breached; if the data is mild, this negative funding rate environment could actually trigger a rebound.

BTC's 4-hour RSI is at 27, daily at 35, both in the oversold territory. Low funding rates indicate that this isn't a leverage cascading event. Price is around 73K, with a buffer of 3K from the 70K defense line.

A structural divergence has formed. Bulls are betting on a rebound in BTC, while bears are betting on a crash in altcoins. Before the PCE data comes out, this stalemate is likely to persist. The true direction will be revealed tomorrow.

The market just vaporized $80 billion, triggered by the U.S. launching a second round of military strikes against Iran within 72 hours.

Ahead of tonight's U.S. market open, the crypto space has already reflected the panic. BTC dropped straight from the $76,000 range to around $73,200, marking a new six-and-a-half-week low. ETH fared worse, breaking below the psychological barrier of $2,000, returning to levels seen at the end of March. The total market cap of the entire crypto market shrank by $80 billion in a day.

First, let's talk about the event itself. The U.S. military struck an Iranian military base on Wednesday night, while also taking down four Iranian attack drones. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced retaliation against a U.S. military base in Kuwait. Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the deal with Iran during a Cabinet meeting, hinting at potential further military actions. The risk of passage through the Strait of Hormuz is escalating, causing crude oil to spike by 3.5%, with WTI rising above $92 and Brent nearing $98.

LVRG Research's Nick Ruck put it bluntly: BTC and ETH, despite their long-term narrative as hedging tools, are acting more like high beta risk assets in the face of uncertainty. Traders are now focused on the escalating risks in the Middle East while keeping an eye on inflation and Fed policy direction, causing liquidity in the crypto market to thin out rapidly.

Back to the charts, BTC's 4-hour RSI is at 26, deep in the oversold zone. The MACD histogram is at -503, with bearish momentum still accelerating. However, the funding rate is only 0.05%, indicating this isn't a leveraged liquidation but rather a spot-level risk-off sell-off. ETH's RSI is at 29, also oversold, with an even lower rate of 0.025%.

This structure is actually worth noting. The combination of oversold conditions and low funding rates means there's no leverage buildup in the market, and price drops are more emotion-driven rather than systemic liquidations. The real danger lies in high funding rates combined with sharp declines, which would trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations. In the current state, however, it could be the soil for a potential rebound.

But don’t rush to catch the bottom in the short term. The trajectory of the geopolitical conflict is entirely unpredictable, and if the Strait of Hormuz does run into issues, crude could surge again, causing all risk assets to drop further. $73,000 is the next key support for BTC; if it can't hold, the psychological level of $70,000 will be tested.

With the gunfire in the Middle East still ongoing, market panic won't cease either. It's more reliable to wait for clarity before making decisions than to guess the bottom.

I flipped through the ETH liquidation map, and honestly, it's a bit nerve-wracking.

ETH just dipped below $2,000, currently sitting at $1,977, with a 4-hour RSI hitting 24.5 and a daily RSI only at 29. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that about 350,000 ETH short positions have been added in the past 24 hours, with open interest (OI) stacking up from the lows, and the funding rate still at 0.003%—indicating that the bulls aren't throwing in the towel and are still paying to hold their positions.

The issue is that there's over $2.1 billion in short liquidity stacked above $2,150. If the $2,000 level can hold, even just consolidating without breaking down, the short covering could push the price above $2,150, triggering a short squeeze. According to CoinGlass's liquidation map, the concentration of shorts in the $2,150 to $2,200 range is at a recent high.

On the flip side, below $2,000, there's over $1 billion in long leverage positions exposed. If it breaks down, the chain liquidations could accelerate the drop. So this position is truly a long-short meat grinder.

BTC isn’t looking easy either. At $72,866, the 4-hour RSI is only 22.3, and the daily RSI is at 36.2, both at recent lows. The MACD histogram is at -368, with short momentum still not subsiding. The 200-day moving average is around $78,300, and BTC has already dropped nearly 7%. Futures OI is at 103,000 BTC, valued at about $7.5 billion, with heavy leverage.

Interestingly, retail is running for the hills. CryptoQuant data shows that medium-sized wallets holding 100 to 1,000 ETH have dropped from a peak of 16.2 million in 2023 to just 8.75 million now, nearly halved. Retail is panicking and exiting, while shorts are doubling down. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions; once the price stabilizes, the short covering might have more elasticity than retail buying.

My personal take is: the short-term oversold condition is certain, with RSI readings of 22/24 occurring only three times in the past two years, each time accompanied by at least a 10% rebound. But the rebound hinges on $2,000 holding. If BTC breaks below $70K, ETH will likely follow below $1,950, pushing the short squeeze narrative further down the line.

Right now, the most critical signal to watch: Can BTC stabilize above $70K for 48 hours? If it holds, the short squeeze script kicks off; if it doesn't, the next stop is $65K.

Risk Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on current market data and does not constitute investment advice. Leverage positions carry high risks in extreme market conditions, so be sure to manage your positions.

Kraken just rolled out a BTC vault product today, pulling in $30 million in 10 hours with 4,000 unique wallets participating. The numbers themselves aren’t explosive, but understanding where the money is going is the key.

Here’s the deal: users deposit BTC, Kraken wraps it into kBTC, and then distributes it through the Veda protocol to DeFi lending platforms like Aave and Morpho for yield. That’s an annualized rate of 2.5%, non-custodial, and users can withdraw anytime (although there’s a 5-day wait).

In simple terms, a leading CEX is literally funneling users' BTC into DeFi protocols. This isn’t just a concept from a whitepaper; it’s a functioning infrastructure.

Kraken’s stablecoin yield product from January has already racked up $245 million in deposits, generating $2.2 million in returns. Now it’s BTC’s turn. Bitcoin holders have been craving yield options, but the BTC chain doesn’t have a native yield mechanism, so we’ll see more of these CeFi to DeFi bridge products popping up.

AAVE is currently at $80.69, down nearly 4%. The 4-hour RSI is at 29.18, and the daily RSI is at 29.82, both in oversold territory. The MACD bars are still below the zero line, indicating weak short-term momentum. However, the latest funding rate is at -0.0006%, and there’s almost no leverage crowding on either side, meaning this pullback is driven by spot selling pressure, not by a leverage blow-up.

Interestingly, even though AAVE's price is falling, the fundamentals are being bolstered by institutional-grade products accumulating positions. The funds allocated to Aave through the Kraken vault represent real TVL growth, not just narrative hype. This divergence between price and fundamentals is a signal worth watching in a bear market.

BTC itself isn’t faring well either, hovering around $73,000, with a 4-hour RSI of 23.15 and a daily RSI of 34.41, both in oversold territory. The entire market is being crushed on valuation, and DeFi tokens are dropping alongside the broader market. But the work at the infrastructure level hasn’t stopped; Kraken is building bridges, Aave is receiving liquidity, and Veda is handling the middleware.

We need to be clear about the risks: a 25% yield cut isn’t small, and a 5-day withdrawal period might not be flexible enough in extreme market conditions, plus there's smart contract risk associated with kBTC. An annualized 2.5% isn’t much in traditional finance, but in the context of BTC’s lack of native yield, this is one of the cleanest channels available right now.

The market is down, but the pipeline between CeFi and DeFi is getting thicker. Once the broader market stabilizes, the funds flowing through these pipelines could fuel the next round of rebounds.

Miners moved 21,000 BTC to Binance, crossing the 20k mark for the second time this year.

CryptoQuant data shows that on May 18, miners transferred about 21,000 BTC to Binance, just a step away from the 23,150 BTC on February 5 this year. When miners move coins to exchanges, it usually means they're looking to sell—either to cover operational costs or adjust their positions, which isn't a small move.

However, the market's reaction has been much calmer than expected. Binance's BTC reserves rose from 618,600 BTC on May 6 to 634,000 BTC on May 26, an increase of 15,400 BTC over 20 days. Miners are moving to exchanges, but it hasn't triggered a panic sell-off, with BTC stabilizing around 75,000 without crashing.

Glassnode's on-chain data supports this assessment. The realized profit-loss ratio is currently at 1.56, well below the 2 to 5 range typical during a bull market. Simply put, while some are taking profits, overall buying confidence isn't strong, and the market is in a lukewarm state.

The more critical issue is the spot demand. Glassnode pointed out that in the last two weeks, the spot volume gap has returned to net sellers, and BTC was rejected when trying to break above 80,000. Their exact words were blunt: "If BTC is to move up from here, spot demand will likely need to come back. Without it, the market may revert to the earlier pattern this year, characterized by volatility and seller dominance."

Technically, the daily chart is forming a head and shoulders pattern. The 80,000 to 81,000 range is repeatedly facing resistance, with a recent lower high around 78,000 potentially forming the right shoulder. 75,000 is the neckline support for this pattern, and it's been a demand zone held throughout May. If it breaks, the downside opens up, with 70,000 possibly becoming the next target.

On the BNB front, it’s currently ranging around $645, with a 4-hour RSI of 36.73 nearing oversold territory and a daily RSI of 47.66 indicating a neutral to weak stance. The funding rate is at 0.0058%, which is gentle and almost unnoticeable, with no issues of leverage crowding. The increase in Binance reserves suggests that the exchange is continuously absorbing the selling pressure from miners, which is neutral for BNB price in the short term, but changes in exchange reserves are a signal worth monitoring in the long run.

On the other side, ETH has nearly $2 billion in short positions piling up around the $2,000 mark, and if the price stabilizes, it could trigger a round of short covering. The funding rate for SOL has even turned negative, indicating that market sentiment is indeed quite cold.

The selling pressure from miners has been absorbed by the market, but if spot demand doesn't return, whether 75,000 can hold is still an open question. In the short term, it's all about when the spot buying returns; until then, don't get too optimistic.

Bitwise dropped $11.31 million on HYPE; institutions are seriously betting on the DeFi track.

Bitwise's latest holdings update on the HYPE ETF shows a hefty $11.31 million buy into Hyperliquid. This isn’t a tentative position; it’s a solid entry while BTC dipped below $75,000 and market sentiment hit rock bottom. What does this mean? Institutions are shoving money into DeFi when the market is at its most fearful.

But in the same week, StakeDAO hit a snag. The deployer keys on Arbitrum were compromised, allowing the attacker to mint 54 trillion vsdCRV tokens, which on paper was worth $763 billion. Scary, right? Yet, the actual cash-out was only $91,000. Why? The liquidity pool was too thin; good luck trying to sell when there’s no one to take it. This is the reality of DeFi—there’s a massive gap between nominal value and real extractable value.

Sodot’s co-founder put it well: by 2026, the risks in DeFi will go beyond just whether smart contracts can pass audits, but whether the keys controlling permissions remain single points of failure. In this case, StakeDAO’s deployer keys lacked multi-signature and delay; coins were minted just 25 seconds after the config was changed. It was too fast to defend against.

Back to the charts, UNI is currently at $3.08, down 5.7% in the last 24 hours, with a 4-hour RSI at only 25.83, indicating serious overselling. The MACD continues to trend downward below the zero line, showing weak short-term momentum. But the funding rate is just 0.0025%, suggesting longs aren’t panic selling; it’s more of a passive follow-the-market decline.

ETH is even more thrilling. Cointelegraph’s analysis today noted over $1.5 billion in short positions piled up above $2,000. If that $2,000 support holds, it could trigger a short squeeze in the $2 billion range. Both sides are adding positions; open interest increased by 350,000 ETH in one day, yet the price keeps dropping—classic short-dominated accumulation phase.

On one hand, institutions are continuously buying DeFi tokens through ETF channels, while on the other, security incidents remind you that the protocol layer has its weak spots. This contradiction is the market's truth. In the short term, with UNI oversold at this level, it’s worth watching if any bottom-fishing funds step in. The key is whether BTC can hold above $74,000 and if ETH's $2,000 support is solid.

This is just a heat check, not investment advice.

The RWA market cap has hit $34 billion, but what really caught my eye today isn't just that number, it's what Orca and Streamex are doing on Solana.

They launched a market specifically for trading tokenized securities, utilizing permissioned liquidity pools. Compliant investors can now buy and sell gold tokens (GLDY) on-chain, operating 24/7 without needing a broker as an intermediary. Wallets are frozen until KYC verification is passed, and eligibility data is updated in real-time on-chain.

Orca's AMM has processed over $500 billion in trading volume, and they claim the GLDY pool could serve as a template for tokenizing stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities.

Look at what's happened recently. The SEC approved Nasdaq's pilot program, allowing tokenized stocks and ETFs to share an order book with traditional assets. The NYSE also signed an agreement with Securitize to build out tokenization infrastructure. Centrifuge is moving government bonds and private credit onto Monad.

This isn't just one company telling a story; it's the entire trading infrastructure being rebuilt. Nasdaq, the NYSE, Solana DEX, and RWA platforms are all heading in the same direction.

Back to the market. BTC is at $74,551 today, down 1.65%, with RSI hitting 30.85 officially in the oversold zone. ETH is at $2,026, down 2.05%, with RSI at 31.79 also nearing oversold. SOL's RSI is at 36.6, and ONDO in the RWA sector has dropped 4.33%, with RSI at 36.87 showing clear short-term selling pressure.

Interestingly, the market is dropping, but the infrastructure is being rolled out faster. The RWA market has surged 420% from last year until now, achieving this growth against the backdrop of BTC's pullback from its peak. The pace of institutional and regulatory advancement is decoupled from retail sentiment cycles.

The market is giving oversold signals at the price level, but the density of on-chain tokenization infrastructure keeps increasing. Once these infrastructures are fully built out, the entry points for capital in the next bull market will be much wider than this round. Now isn't the time to chase prices, but it is definitely the time to watch the progress of the infrastructure.

Mastercard just snagged their BitLicense in New York.

This isn't your typical "testing the waters" press release; we're talking about the legit, hard-earned crypto license from the NYDFS, allowing them to operate in the Big Apple legally.

What's interesting is they aren't rushing to push consumer products. Mastercard made it clear: they're focusing on stablecoins and the payment settlement infrastructure for tokenized deposits.

If you look at their recent moves, it's clear this isn't a spur-of-the-moment decision. Back in February, MetaMask launched the Mastercard payment card, enabling users to spend directly from their self-custodied wallets. Last month, they dropped $1.8 billion to acquire the stablecoin company BVNK, which Coinbase had previously tried to snag without success. Just a few days ago, they completed their first cross-border US Treasury transaction on the XRP Ledger.

This isn’t just dipping a toe in; it’s about building the infrastructure.

XRP is slightly down today at $1.32. The RWA tokenization market is currently at a $33.8 billion scale, and using the XRP Ledger for Treasury settlements is a clear signal—they're validating the feasibility of on-chain settlement through real-world actions.

The market is looking a bit weak. BTC dipped 1.1% to $75,290, with a 4h RSI of 37.75 nearing oversold territory. ETH is at $2,060, RSI at 39.49. Funding rates are mild—BTC at 0.01%, ETH at 0.006%. This isn't a leverage smash; it feels more like pressure from market sentiment.

However, XLM is bucking the trend with an 11.3% rise today. Both XLM and XRP are payment-focused public chains, and with Mastercard choosing the XRP Ledger for settlements, it’s clear that interest in the payment space is quietly heating up.

This license from Mastercard won't instantly change any prices. But the message is crystal clear: traditional finance isn't here to "participate" in crypto; they’re here to take over the infrastructure. Stablecoin settlements, tokenized Treasuries, cross-border payments—this is the cake Mastercard wants to eat.

As the largest payment network starts seriously building on-chain settlement channels, this industry inches closer to widespread adoption.

Last night, someone dumped $1.3 billion into BlackRock's IBIT, yet BTC only dipped 2%. This situation is more interesting than the numbers themselves.

Bloomberg's ETF analyst Eric Balchunas confirmed this large transaction, stating that the market "absorbed it well," with IBIT's price barely budging. A $1.3 billion sell order created just a small ripple on the surface, which suggests what? It indicates that BTC's liquidity and buy depth are no longer at the levels seen in 2022.

But it’s not that straightforward. Over the past 7 trading days, the net outflow from U.S. spot BTC ETFs totaled $1.79 billion. Additionally, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler characterized this large trade as "massive institutional de-risking," sending mixed signals. On one hand, large players are offloading, while on the other, prices are holding steady—this contradiction is worth pondering.

The selling pressure isn’t just coming from ETFs. On Monday, a Satoshi-era miner transferred 2,650 BTC, worth about $203 million, to FalconX and Cumberland's OTC desks. This address had been dormant for a long time, and its sudden activity likely indicates an impending sell-off. Michael Saylor’s strategy this week also deviated from the norm; instead of buying BTC, he spent $1.5 billion to repurchase his debt notes, reducing his outstanding debt to $6.7 billion. Big players are rebalancing, and the tempo has changed.

However, there are also hedging forces at play. Four small treasury firms collectively bought 602.6 BTC, approximately $46 million. While the volume isn’t huge, the direction is clear—someone is picking up the slack while others hesitate.

On the technical side, BTC is currently at $74,893, with a 4-hour RSI at 33.34, nearing the oversold zone. The MACD histogram shows -153, indicating that bearish momentum persists. But the funding rate is only 0.0096%, a very low level, suggesting that the market isn't leveraging bets on direction; the current drop is genuine selling pressure rather than a liquidation cascade. ETH's situation is similar, with an RSI of 36.81 also at the oversold edge and a funding rate of 0.0055%.

The situation in the Middle East is a catalyst for this de-risking. The U.S. has launched new strikes in southern Iran, and Iran shot down a U.S. drone, escalating geopolitical tensions that prompted institutions to reduce their positions and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

My assessment: The $1.3 billion sell order was absorbed by the market, which is fundamentally a positive structural signal. But in the short term, don’t rush to catch a falling knife; the RSI has just hit oversold territory, but we haven’t reached panic levels yet. A genuine rebound requires stable ETF cash flows or a cooling of geopolitical risks. At this point, sitting on the sidelines is more prudent than acting impulsively.

The data is pretty interesting. Bitwise and 21Shares' HYPE spot ETF launched 10 days ago and absorbed a total market cap of 1.04%. What does this number mean? The BTC ETF only captured 0.59% in its first 10 days, ETH was at 0.41%, and SOL was at 0.31%. When standardized by market cap, HYPE has the strongest debut demand in crypto ETF history.

21Shares' THYP has surged 50% in two weeks. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas mentioned that IBIT took two months to reach this level, while Roundhill's DRAM ETF took five weeks. The pace is completely different.

What’s even more crucial is the comparison of capital flows. Last week, HYPE ETF saw a net inflow of $68 million, while the BTC ETF experienced an outflow of $1.26 billion, and the ETH ETF also saw $216 million flowing out. Money is moving from BTC/ETH to the DeFi sector, with HYPE being the first to catch the wave.

Back to the charts. HYPE is currently at $59.91, down 5.6% for the day, with a trading volume of $1.47 billion (futures), and the 4h RSI is at 49, right in the middle. The funding rate is at -0.0066%, with shorts slightly in control but not significantly, indicating that the market is digesting this rally rather than panicking and dumping. Over on BTC, it’s at $75,094, with a 4h RSI of 35 showing weakness and the MACD bars continuing to trend downward. Given the overall soft market backdrop, the fact that HYPE ETF can still attract capital indicates that institutional demand for DeFi plays is real.

However, we need to stay cool-headed. The demand during the ETF launch period often includes a lot of speculative positions, and whether it can sustain will depend on the capital flows in the coming weeks maintaining at the millions level. If BTC continues to weaken and breaks below $73K, it’s likely that HYPE will also be dragged down. ETF products do not equate to immunity from downturns.

Strategy did something yesterday – shelled out $1.38 billion in cash to buy back its convertible bonds due in 2029. They picked up $1.5 billion worth of bonds at an 80% discount, meaning they only spent $0.92 for every dollar of debt repaid. After this move, Strategy's convertible bond balance dropped from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion.

This isn’t about stacking more coins; it’s about lightening the load. Bitwise's European research head, André Dragosch, commented that this transaction removed a major uncertainty regarding the "cash repayment cliff" in mid-2028 – since the conversion price for those bonds is around $672, and with BTC prices where they are, creditors are likely to opt for cash redemption instead of converting to stock. Buying back at a discount ahead of time is like defusing a ticking time bomb.

However, the market reaction is a bit counterintuitive. MSTR dipped 3% in pre-market trading and is currently hovering around $159. It’s down 10% over the past month and has dropped 59% over the year. Just last week, Strategy spent $2.01 billion to acquire 24,869 BTC at an average price of $80,985, and this week they've chosen to pay off debt rather than buy new coins – the signal is clear: their $871 million cash reserve isn’t infinite, and priorities have shifted from "crazy accumulation" to "optimizing debt structure."

Looking at BTC around the $76,000 mark, the 4-hour RSI is 42.65, showing weakness, and MACD bars are still negative. Funding rates at 0.0089% aren’t overcrowded but also aren’t particularly low. ETH dropped 1.76% to $2,085, with an RSI of 45.78 showing neutral to weak signals. Last week, besides Strategy, four small BTC financial companies collectively bought 602.6 BTC, about $46 million, indicating that corporate buying is still in play, just at a slower pace.

My take: Strategy's shift from "mindless accumulation" to "smart debt repayment" shows Saylor is starting to take the 2028 cash repayment pressure seriously. This is good news for long-term holders – the risks on the debt side are shrinking. But in the short term, MSTR's stock price pressure suggests the market is re-evaluating the growth logic of the company: as the accumulation pace slows down, how long can the premium hold up?

Someone quietly dumped $1.3 billion of BlackRock IBIT in the dark pool, causing BTC to drop 1.5% in just 10 minutes.

Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn mentioned this is the largest dark pool trade he's ever seen. An anonymous trader sold 29.2 million IBIT shares at a price of $43.16 through the dark pool at 2:30 PM UTC, totaling $1.3 billion. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas added that this trade was 22 times larger than the second biggest IBIT sell order of the day.

The market reacted swiftly. BTC plummeted from $77,875 to $76,720 in 10 minutes, then continued to slide down to a 24-hour low of $75,600, reflecting a daily drop of 2.8%.

This isn't just a one-person operation. The US BTC ETF has seen net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with $333.6 million flowing out on Tuesday alone, of which $192.4 million was IBIT. Since the last net inflow across the market on May 14, ETFs have cumulatively experienced outflows exceeding $2 billion.

Institutions are also adjusting their positions. Jane Street cut its BTC ETF holdings by about 70% in Q1, while Goldman Sachs reduced theirs by 10%. This isn't retail panic; it's large funds reallocating.

From a technical perspective, BTC is currently at $76,034, with a 4-hour RSI of 42.87 and a daily RSI of 43.41, both in a neutral to weak range. The MACD histogram is at -117.27, indicating bearish momentum is still being released. However, the funding rate is only 0.0089%, suggesting the market isn't leveraging against this drop; the decline is driven by spot selling, not derivatives liquidation.

On the ETH front, it's slightly down 0.18% at $2,094, with a daily RSI of 38.91 approaching oversold territory. The funding rate of 0.0031% is also very low.

In my view, the combination of the $1.3 billion dark pool sell order, 8 consecutive days of ETF outflows, and institutional position reductions signals that some institutions are actively lowering their BTC exposure. However, with low funding rates and RSIs not yet in oversold territory, the market isn't panicking. It feels more like a systematic position adjustment rather than a rout.

Next, we need to watch when ETF outflows will stop. If the outflows continue for more than two weeks, combined with ongoing institutional selling, the $74,000 support level might be tested. But if outflows slow down and the funding rate returns to a normal range, the current position could actually be a consolidation zone for institutions post-reallocation.

Binance officially announced today a partnership with the Philippine fintech company BlockShoals to re-enter the Philippine market through the SEC's strategic sandbox (StratBox).

The term 're-enter' is used because Binance was deemed to be operating without a license by the Philippine SEC in 2024, leading the NTC to directly ban access to the platform. For a full two years, Philippine users have had to rely on VPNs to access Binance. This partnership with BlockShoals marks Binance's first official compliance route into the market, not sneaking around regulations, but obtaining recognized sandbox entry qualifications from the regulatory body.

This signal is quite interesting. Binance's choice of a sandbox instead of directly applying for a license indicates that the regulatory framework in the Philippines is not yet mature enough for direct implementation. However, the SEC's willingness to include Binance stakeholders in the sandbox implies a shift in regulatory attitude from a 'one-size-fits-all ban' to 'conditional entry'. This is a noteworthy trend for the entire crypto regulatory ecosystem in Southeast Asia.

The Philippines is one of the largest crypto markets in Southeast Asia, with a population of 110 million and a huge demand for remittances, where the use of USDT is highly penetrated. If Binance can successfully navigate the compliance process through the sandbox, the subsequent application for a formal license will be much smoother.

Looking at the market. BTC dropped 1.4% to $75,769, with an RSI of 39.6 nearing oversold territory, and the MACD histogram remains in negative territory, indicating that bearish momentum hasn't fully released yet. BNB fell 0.8% to $652, with an RSI of 44.65 also on the weak side, and the MACD histogram is negative as well. The funding rate is at 0.003%, which is very low, indicating no leverage congestion; the decline is more driven by sentiment rather than liquidations.

Binance's actions in the Philippines won't immediately reflect on BNB's price, but this represents a significant trend in the exchange landscape: shifting from 'get on board and pay later' to 'get the ticket before boarding'. Since 2024, the SEC has issued warnings to over 10 exchanges, including OKX, Bybit, KuCoin, and Kraken, but currently, only Binance has chosen to pursue the regulatory sandbox route among leading CEXs.

The specific service scope during the sandbox phase has yet to be announced, but BlockShoals has established payment and remittance infrastructure in the Philippines. With Binance's user base and local compliance channels, this combination, once operational, will put significant pressure on other non-compliant exchanges in the area.

Structural opportunities take time to materialize, but the direction is right. The compliance process in the Southeast Asian market is accelerating; whoever secures a license first will establish their position.

Today, mining stocks skyrocketed collectively, with TeraWulf surging 17% at one point, and Hut 8, IREN, and Riot all following suit with gains over 5%. The numbers themselves aren't exaggerated, but the underlying logic is shifting.

Bernstein just released a report stating that 11 publicly listed BTC mining companies control about 27 gigawatts of power resources. This figure takes on a whole new meaning in the context of AI infrastructure. Analysts are quite blunt: power is replacing chips, becoming the core bottleneck for AI expansion. Whoever holds the power becomes a natural partner for large-scale computing companies.

On a company level, IREN signed a deal with Microsoft, and Bernstein estimates this line could generate an annual revenue of around $3.7 billion. TeraWulf's AI/HPC-related revenue jumped 117% year-over-year last quarter, while also announcing they secured land in Kentucky to plan a 1-gigawatt AI data center, with the first phase of 500 megawatts set to go live in 2028. Google backed its $3 billion financing.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen 77% this year, and the S&P 500 has reached a new high of 7500. The semiconductor bull market spillover has reached mining companies, as the market suddenly realizes these firms hold the most essential assets for AI: ready-made large-scale power and cooling infrastructure.

Back in the crypto space, $BTC dropped 1.8% to around 75,300, with a 4-hour RSI of 35.6 nearing oversold territory, and a daily RSI of 40.9 also looking grim. The MACD histogram is still narrowing, although it's below the zero line. Funding rates are at 0.01%, a moderate level.

AI tokens are showing a mixed trend. RENDER's 4-hour RSI is at 61, with a positive MACD histogram and decent momentum. FET's RSI is also at 61, with a similar structure. NEAR is lagging a bit, with an RSI of 53, and the MACD histogram below the signal line. Interestingly, even though the overall market is pulling back today, AI tokens are proving to be more resilient than BTC.

CoreWeave recently secured an $8.5 billion loan, effectively replacing traditional mining financing logic with AI computing demand. The narrative for mining companies is shifting from 'surviving on block rewards' to 'feeding off computing infrastructure'. This transformation could have significant implications for the crypto ecosystem, and it's worth keeping an eye on.

BitMine just scooped up 111,942 ETH last week, marking their biggest buy in 2026.

They jumped on the chance when ETH dipped below $2,200; Tom Lee called it an "attractive opportunity." Over the past week, ETH has been bouncing between $2,025 and $2,147, and he went long on it.

So, how much ETH does BitMine hold now? Almost 5.4 million coins, which is 4.37% of the total ETH supply. Their ultimate goal is to snag 5%, or over 6 million coins. At this rate, they’re on track to hit that by the end of the year.

To put it plainly, BitMine is replicating the strategy of accumulating coins on a public company’s balance sheet—only Saylor is stacking BTC while Tom Lee is all about ETH.

But what’s the point of buying if it doesn't pump? BitMine’s stock price has dropped 30% this year, closing at $18.88 last Friday. Still, they have a market cap of $10.15 billion, just scraping by the Russell 3000 threshold. Tom Lee revealed that FTSE Russell has already put BitMine on the preliminary list, and if they make it into the Russell 1000, passive funds and ETFs will automatically allocate, potentially bringing in 25% market cap in passive buys. The timeline for results is June 5, 12, and 18, with a formal effect on the 26th.

More importantly, BitMine has staked $4.7 million worth of ETH, expecting an annualized staking yield of $276 million. This isn’t just hoarding coins; they’re making them work for them.

The total staked ETH in the ecosystem has also hit a new high, with over 39.2 million ETH locked up, accounting for 32.19% of total supply. An additional 3.3 million ETH are queuing to get in.

Back to the technicals, ETH is currently at $2,072, with a 4-hour RSI of 40.9, nearing the oversold zone. The MACD histogram is still below the zero line, but bearish momentum is narrowing. The funding rate of 0.0074% is quite mild, indicating the market isn’t overly leveraged.

My take is that BitMine’s "buy on the dip" strategy has a long-term logic that holds— they’re betting on the narrative of ETH not being fully priced in by the market. But the short-term risks are glaring: a 30% drop in stock price and ETH down 57% from its all-time high. If the super cycle arrives a year late, their funding chain and market confidence will be tested.

June's Russell index adjustment is a key observation point. If BitMine actually makes it into the Russell 1000, passive buying could give both the stock price and ETH a boost. Until then, just hang tight and wait.

#BitMine holds $12.3 billion in crypto assets

Grvt, a DEX focused on perpetual contracts, has started offering RWA fixed-income products.

In collaboration with Plume, they've launched three funds: Base Yield Fund, Balanced Fund, and Opportunistic Fund. The scale references the iShares AAA CLO Active ETF's $2.2B asset pool as its foundation, so it's not some fly-by-night operation.

The highlight is that you can manage trading and wealth management from the same self-custody account. The funds you use for perpetual contract collateral can earn interest in RWA fixed income without needing to move to an external wallet. The model of using leverage and fixed income in the same account is quite rare.

Grvt boasts an average daily derivatives trading volume of $1.2B, ranking among the top in the DEX space. In February, they integrated Aave’s lending protocol for collateral earning, and now they’ve added RWA fixed income. This DEX is performing the role of an aggregator.

The RWA space is now $34B on-chain, up from just $5.8B at the beginning of the year. EtherFi also contributed $25M to Plume’s Nest in March. The influx of traditional capital into the blockchain is not just a concept; it's a tangible trend.

$LINK today is at $9.38, slightly down by a point. The four-hour RSI is at 43, indicating weakness, while the funding rate is a mild 0.007%. However, the daily MACD is still positive at +0.29, indicating structural demand remains.

The market $BTC has returned to $75,786. The AI sector has stolen the spotlight, but just because DeFi is quiet doesn't mean it's not laying the groundwork.

Today, three messages on crypto Twitter are colliding, each pointing in different directions.

Swissblock says BTC has entered a high-risk zone, with a risk index of 33/100, and institutions are offloading via ETFs. Glassnode is backing this up—ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, totaling over $2B, with supply-side pressure building and demand-side buying not matching up. BTC's 4h RSI is at 42.66, and MACD is below the zero line; technically, the outlook is indeed weak.

However, at the same time, Santiment states that the $1.47B ETF outflow is actually a contrarian buy signal. BTC's implied volatility has dropped to 36%, the lowest in 8 months—this extreme compression in volatility means a directional choice is accelerating closer. Arthur Hayes comes out saying $NEAR has 20x potential. These signals aren’t pointing to panic but rather to positioning.

Both sides have their merits. The $2B ETF outflow is a fact that can't be ignored—it indicates that institutional risk appetite is indeed contracting. But from another perspective, BTC's funding rate is just 0.0035%, nearly zero. Volatility is flatlining. This isn't panic selling; it's the market patiently waiting for a catalyst.

The split is the most real state. From May until now, the market has lacked direction, which is why analysts are pulling in opposite directions. In my view, this time is more interesting than a consistent bullish or bearish stance—since direction hasn’t been decided, it signals there’s still room and chips to position. When volatility finally bounces back, one of these conflicting signals will surely prove right.

Bernstein dropped a report today, and the RWA tokenization market has hit $51B, up 42% this year. I checked the specifics, and it’s pretty interesting.

Private credit has become the largest segment of RWA, accounting for about 44%. Figure Technology Solutions alone holds $18B in assets, mostly in private credit. Figure has tokenized $5B in consumer loans this year, with a record lending volume in April of $1.3B. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has also surpassed $2.5B in size.

Moreover, Grvt just announced a partnership with Plume, launching three RWA yield products integrated directly into their trading platform. Base Yield fund, Balanced fund, Opportunistic fund — all accessible from the same interface for tokenized fixed income. The trend is crystal clear; it’s not just the big institutions getting in, trading platforms are also onboarding.

A quote from the co-founder of Stobox stuck with me: blockchain is quietly becoming the infrastructure layer of the global capital markets. The rapid growth in private credit is driven by demand on both ends — investors want returns, and businesses need capital. Tokenized government bonds were the first successful institutional play, and private credit is the second wave, offering higher returns and a more direct connection to the real economy.

Looking at $ONDO , it’s down about 6% today, and the RWA sector is weakening alongside the broader market (BTC is also down 2%). But $ONDO ’s 4h RSI is at 46.46, which is neutral, and the funding rate is basically zero — it's not a leverage blow-up or panic sell-off, just a follow-through pullback. The MACD histogram has just turned negative, indicating that short-term momentum is indeed weakening, but this isn’t a fundamental issue.

Who would have believed a year ago that $51B was even possible? The tokenized RWA market has surged 420% from 2025 to now. This growth isn’t a bubble; it’s the real building of infrastructure. Prices not aligning with fundamentals in the short term is the norm; as long as the direction is right, we’re good.

Today, $BTC dropped to $76,543, with ETP flowing out $1.47B, setting a new record for the year. CoinShares' report says it straight: risk appetite is contracting across the board, with the situation in Iran being the main driver. On the same day, AI tokens exploded collectively, with WLD up 33%, FET up 14%, IO up 12%, and RENDER up 8%. On one side, institutions are shorting, while funds are rushing into the AI sector.

Looking at the technicals, it gets even more interesting. WLD's 4h RSI has soared to 83.6, reaching overbought levels that make me hesitant to chase. FET and RENDER are also in the overbought zone around 76-77. However, the funding rate is only about 0.01%, showing no extreme leverage buildup. This indicates that this move isn't driven by contracts but by solid spot buying.

On the news front, FT's report states that Meta and Google's open-source model safety barriers can be dismantled in just a few minutes, making AI governance a hot topic again. Luffa secured a strategic investment with a $220M valuation, and Hyperliquid also launched a prediction market. The intersection of AI and crypto is shifting from narrative to product.

In my view, this is a structural capital shift in the AI sector, but it's overheated in the short term. Last time WLD retraced 15%-20% after hitting an RSI of 80+. With overall market liquidity tightening, how long this counter-trend can last is a question. The truly worthwhile opportunities may arise when RSI returns to around 60-65.

There's an interesting comparison happening today.

A whale on $ETH opened a short position of 47,600 ETH, roughly $100M in size, with 23x leverage, entry price at $2,115. The liquidation price is at $2,150, just 2% away from that. Currently, this position is already seeing a floating loss close to $1 million.

On the same day, Vitalik posted that the Ethereum Foundation will sell less ETH in the future, opting for longevity over spreading thin. The foundation sold 20,000 ETH this year for $45 million, leaving them with 103,000 ETH. Sounds like good news from the supply side.

But the data tells a different story.

Harvard just liquidated its recently acquired ETH ETF position, and Goldman cut theirs by 70%. In May, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of $295 million, accumulating nearly $1 billion for the year. Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, mentioned he sold all of his ETH.

These conflicting signals are quite interesting: the whale is betting that ETH can't hold $2,150, while Vitalik is trying to reduce selling pressure, but institutions are voting with their feet.

However, the underlying data for ETH isn't bad. There’s $43 billion locked in DeFi liquidity and $165 billion in stablecoins on-chain, with tokenized assets making up 55% of the entire chain. Some analysts believe this fundamental value is hard to match.

The 4-hour RSI for $ETH is at 45.21, close to neutral but leaning weak. The MACD is still underwater at -22. But the funding rate is only 0.0035%, indicating that there are more shorts but the leverage isn’t extreme—it's not an overcrowded trade. $BTC is ranging at $76,769, with an RSI of 48.06.

The $2,150 liquidation price is crucial. If ETH rebounds and breaks through here, that $100M short position will get liquidated. If it can't hold $2,000, we might see another round of sell-off. Both sides have their arguments; better to wait for a clear direction before making a move.