0xMomo

The market's been laser-focused on BTC's rebound these past couple of days, hitting 64,500. Galaxy Digital even dropped a report suggesting the bottom for this cycle could be between 62,000 and 54,000. But today, I want to chat about something that's been seriously overlooked — $BNB .

First, let’s check the position. BNB is currently at 609, having dipped to 580 last week. It’s bounced back about 5% from that low, but if you look at the moving averages, it’s still hanging below two key levels. The 20-day MA is at 627, and the 50-day MA is at 638. The short-term cost is lower than the long-term cost, indicating the market is still digesting and hasn’t truly stabilized.

But here’s where it gets interesting. The 4-hour MACD just completed a golden cross, and the histogram shifted from negative to positive. This means short-term momentum is warming up. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is at 45.5; it hasn’t hit the oversold zone yet, but it’s clearly climbing from the lows. The 4-hour RSI has bounced back to 57.9, showing a significant improvement from last week's panic.

What I find most reassuring is the funding rate. Over the past few days, it’s been hovering around zero, peaking at just 0.000065. What does this indicate? The current price movements aren’t being driven by leverage. No one was going crazy long at 580, and no one was wildly shorting at 609. The market is speaking through spot trades, which is a healthy sign for $BNB .

However, the downside is clear: volume is shrinking. Seven days ago, BNB's daily volume was 120,000 coins, and now it’s down to 56,000. A classic scenario of a volume-constrained rebound is either waiting for a breakout confirmation on increased volume or grinding until the moving averages converge before picking a direction.

Galaxy Digital’s report actually provided an interesting perspective. They mentioned that $BTC only 4 out of 13 signals for a bottom have been triggered in this cycle, and historically, it takes more than 10 to confirm a bottom. Demand is also shrinking. CryptoQuant data shows speculative and spot demand combined are down 650,000 BTC weekly, the sharpest drop since early 2022.

For BNB, this suggests that the overall market environment isn’t at a point for mindless buying. The support range recently has been 580 to 600; if BTC does indeed take time to consolidate as Galaxy suggests, BNB will likely continue to oscillate within this range.

Short-term watch point is clear: the 20-day MA at 627. If it breaks above on increased volume, the next challenge will be the 50-day MA at 638. Only after breaking through these two moving average resistances will it open up space towards 680. If volume remains low and it can’t break through, we’ll keep grinding between 580 and 620.

Honestly, I feel like BNB's current state is neither up nor down, but the structure isn’t broken. The price is below the moving averages, but the MACD is warming up; volume is shrinking, but the funding rate is healthy. In such times, chasing in isn’t meaningful, but panicking isn’t the way either. Waiting for a volume signal is more important than anything else.

Saylor sold 32 BTC, and the market freaked out, causing Bitcoin to drop from 73k to 60k. A week later, he bought back 1550 BTC, totaling a cool hundred million bucks. This buy-sell logic is way more interesting than the "never sell coins" mantra.

When I saw Saylor dumping coins, my first thought was: it's over, even the most die-hard bulls can't hold on. But in reality, the sale of those 32 BTC was a necessary move for Strategy's digital credit operations. Saylor candidly stated in his BTC Prague interview: if the company policy is to never sell coins, then the digital credit products would be worthless, and so would the stocks.

Here's the logic chain. The STRC preferred shares issued by Strategy are essentially a digital credit tool backed by BTC assets, yielding about 8% annually, which is three to four times that of traditional savings. To maintain the creditworthiness of such products, the company must retain the ability to sell BTC. It's not about dumping a ton; it's about having that "option" to assure the market that the credit backing is real.

So, selling 32 BTC and then buying back 1550 makes sense. The sale was to prove capability, while the buyback showcased confidence. The 32 BTC was a flare, while the 1550 BTC reflected the true intent.

However, this model isn’t without risks. On June 4, Apyx Finance's stablecoin apxUSD de-pegged to $0.90, primarily due to BTC dropping below 63k alongside STRC falling below par. The entire digital credit ecosystem's high interconnectedness was laid bare at that moment: BTC's drop dragged STRC below par, leading to insufficient collateral for the stablecoin, resulting in a direct de-peg.

Currently, BTC is hovering around 64,500, with a 4-hour RSI of 62.8 indicating a neutral to bullish trend, and the MACD histogram has been consistently positive, with a funding rate of only 0.0009%. The market is calm, and leverage isn’t crowded. The AI sector saw a collective rebound today, with TAO up 23% and WLD up 9%, as funds moved between sectors.

Saylor’s buy-sell strategy has shown me a larger shift: as BTC transitions from "digital gold" to "digital collateral" on corporate balance sheets, the ability to sell becomes part of the credit rating. This is similar to traditional banks needing to maintain liquidity reserves. The digital credit sector is just getting started, and more companies will likely mimic this model.

#Saylor says Strategy must be able to sell BTC

I've been checking out the Ethereum data lately and found an interesting split.

On the derivatives side, it looks like some are bailing. The funding rate has been negative for several days in a row, with shorts paying to hold their positions. The total open interest in contracts has dropped 30% over the month, hitting a 13-month low. In the U.S., Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $323 million in two weeks. On-chain activity is pretty quiet too, with total locked value shrinking 33% over two months and DApp revenues crashing 43% in May.

But staking is a whole different ballgame.

Right now, there are 2.9 million ETH queuing up to be staked, and the wait time is 50 days to enter. Exiting is instant, no wait at all. A total of 39.5 million ETH has already been staked, and no one seems to want to leave. Exchange balances have dropped from 16.15 million ETH three months ago to 15.05 million, with some folks continuously withdrawing their coins. Over the past month, institutions have accumulated an additional 337,000 ETH.

You've got short-term traders retreating while long-term holders are doubling down. It's pretty rare to see these two forces battling it out on the same asset.

This kind of divergence has popped up a few times in history. Before the merge in 2022, the derivatives market was bearish while staking was optimistic, and then the successful merge brought a price surge. Of course, you can't just draw a straight line from then to now, but it does show there's a temperature difference between how the market views Ethereum's long-term value versus its short-term pricing.

The daily RSI is hovering around 32, which is in the oversold territory. Negative funding rates combined with an oversold RSI technically create conditions for a rebound. But we also have to acknowledge that on-chain activity is indeed cooling down; we can’t just pretend that’s not happening.

The signals from derivatives and spot markets are completely opposite. Short-term traders are voting with their feet, while long-term stakers are making their stance clear through action. This kind of split won’t last too long; the market will eventually pick a direction. Personally, I think the speed at which the staking queue clears and when ETF capital flows turn positive will be key observation points.

Morpho just bagged $175 million, led by Paradigm and a16z crypto.

This is the largest funding round in DeFi history. Interestingly, Morpho is no longer positioning itself as a DeFi lending protocol; they're aiming to build credit infrastructure for banks, asset management, and fintech companies.

Spark CEO Sam MacPherson puts it bluntly: as the stablecoin market expands, the credit layer becomes the most crucial piece in the entire financial infrastructure stack.

Data speaks volumes. Morpho has locked up $6.72 billion on-chain, with active loans totaling $3.47 billion. Coinbase has directly issued over $2.17 billion in corporate USDC loans using Morpho's smart contracts. This isn't retail traders dabbling in DeFi; this is institutional players leveraging on-chain lending for real business.

What's even more noteworthy is the flow of VC funds. CryptoRank's Q1 report shows that funding amounts for Series C and later rounds have skyrocketed by 1,020% year-over-year and surged 320% quarter-over-quarter. Meanwhile, seed and pre-seed rounds have dropped by 38%. Money is concentrating towards a select few leading projects, while the financing environment for early-stage projects is deteriorating.

Morpho co-founder Merlin Egalite mentioned that the goal for the next 12 to 18 months is to expand access for banks and asset management, attract more institutional funds, and move the functionalities of traditional credit markets onto the blockchain.

Looking at the broader market, it's even more interesting. BTC is currently hovering around $64,000, with a daily RSI of just 34.6, indicating an oversold region. ETH's daily RSI is even lower at 31.3. However, AAVE, as the leader in the DeFi lending space, has a 4-hour MACD histogram that has turned positive, with a funding rate of only 0.004%, suggesting low leverage and healthy upside potential.

While VCs are tightening early-stage investments, they're pouring substantial funds into verified DeFi infrastructure. This could be a signal: the window for institutional-grade DeFi is opening, but it's only for a select few players.

Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 have been ordered offline by the US government, and this went down this afternoon.

The government claims it's for national security, citing potential jailbreak risks associated with these two models. Specifically, folks have figured out how to bypass security restrictions by making the models read specific code libraries. Anthropic themselves say it's just a "narrow jailbreak," not a global security flaw, claiming the government is overreacting.

But the government isn't having any of it. They demanded that Anthropic immediately cut off access for all foreign nationals, including Anthropic's own foreign employees, right after receiving the order. Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which were just dropped last week as flagship models, have been hit with the pause button. Other models like Opus 4.8 remain unaffected.

So why does this matter to the crypto space? Over the past year, a slew of AI agent tokens and decentralized AI protocols have been built on Anthropic's API. Fable 5 is considered the most powerful reasoning model out there, and a lot of on-chain AI agents rely on it for their core reasoning engines. With it going offline, it’s like a key piece of the AI + Crypto infrastructure just got yanked away.

Market reaction has been swift. AI sector tokens are feeling the heat today, with funds migrating to safer havens. BTC's daily RSI has dipped to around 34, marking it as oversold territory. Funding rates are extremely low, with BTC at just 0.0001% and ETH at only 0.0036%, indicating that while the market is panicking, there’s no leveraged buildup—this isn’t a cascading drop.

Anthropic has stated in their announcement that this is a "misunderstanding" and they are working to restore services. However, if the government sticks to this standard, it means that all cutting-edge models will need to pass security reviews before release, which will directly slow down the iteration speed of the entire AI industry.

For the crypto market, this is a variable worth keeping an eye on long-term. The valuation logic for AI agent tokens might need a rethink—not because the tech is lacking, but because the policy risk has suddenly escalated.

The Nasdaq 100 dropped 7.5% over the past week, evaporating $2.7 trillion. That’s more than double the entire market cap of BTC.

The Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude oil up to $90, with PPI year-on-year hitting 6.5%, a new high since 2022. The market is now pricing a 40% chance of a rate hike in September, up from just 5% a month ago.

On the crypto side, $1.9 billion flowed out in June ETF withdrawals. Strategy has paused BTC accumulation, reducing cash reserves to just enough to cover 7 months of dividends. Even miners are capitulating—on-chain data shows that the current price has breached miners' break-even points. Killa says this is a signal for "historically optimal accumulation timing."

But BTC is still holding strong at $63,800.

Daily RSI is at 34, indicating oversold conditions. The 4-hour RSI is at 57, not extreme. The key factor here is the funding rate, at 0.0001%, nearly zero. This means no one is leveraging long positions, and there’s no panic shorting. Prices are dropping, but the positions are clean.

Compare this: the Nasdaq’s 7.5% drop wiped out more market cap than BTC’s total market cap, and BTC has only dropped less than 1%. It’s not that BTC isn’t dropping; it’s just that it’s dropping much less than it should.

The miner capitulation signal deserves special mention. Historically, whenever miners are forced to sell coins to cover operating costs, it happens near the bottom of the cycle. Capriole’s Charles Edwards also mentioned that miners are at the brink. This isn’t me being bullish; it’s on-chain data saying the same thing.

Of course, oil prices are still rising, the Fed hasn't shifted its stance, and ETF outflows haven’t stopped. Short-term risks are real. But when all the noise tells you to run, the simultaneous appearance of miner capitulation, oversold RSI, and zero leverage funding rates is historically rare.

This doesn’t mean the bottom is in, but signals in the bottom region are accumulating. Once oil prices stabilize or the Fed shifts its stance, looking back at this position might reveal the best window.

SpaceX went public on NASDAQ last Friday, opening at $150 and closing at $161, with a market cap surpassing $2 trillion. It was four times oversubscribed, raising $75 billion, and everything seemed perfect.

But over here in the crypto world, it’s a whole different ball game.

Multiple crypto platforms launched tokenized SpaceX shares for subscription before the IPO. They attracted over $557 million in USDC deposits, with 28,000 wallets participating. Everyone thought they could finally snag a piece of a traditional IPO on-chain.

But yesterday, the platforms collectively announced cancellations and promised full refunds.

The common reason was: the underlying infrastructure provider couldn’t deliver the actual stocks. Four platforms were using the same channel, and when it broke, no one got their goods.

This is not a minor issue. $557 million was locked up for a week, and users were left waiting not for token delivery, but for a "sorry, refunds."

Trust is hard to build—it takes a hundred successes—but can be destroyed with just one failure. The tokenized IPO concept had been hyped for over half a year, and it finally faced a heavyweight test, only to fall flat right out of the gate.

The market is casting its vote. BTC is now at 63,670, with a daily RSI of 55.89, leaning slightly bullish, and a MACD histogram of 105 in positive territory, showing momentum isn’t crushed. The funding rate at 0.0054% is quite mild. The price itself hasn’t collapsed, but the damage on the narrative front is real.

ETH is a bit weaker, sitting at $1,666, with a 4-hour RSI of 51.17, neutral, and the funding rate has turned negative at -0.0006%. Shorts are starting to collect fees, indicating the market sentiment towards the tokenization space is indeed cooling off.

To put it plainly, the bottleneck for tokenization has never been on the demand side. Users are willing to lock in $557 million, showcasing explosive demand. The issue lies on the supply side—traditional finance's settlement infrastructure isn't ready for the crypto world.

This event acts as a sobering reality check for the entire RWA narrative. Tokenized stocks aren’t just about writing a smart contract; there’s a complete chain behind it involving T+1 settlements, custody compliance, and cross-border regulations. Crypto can handle the front end, but the back end is still in the hands of traditional finance.

SBF's appeal was also rejected, maintaining his 25-year sentence. His only chance now is a presidential pardon, but as things stand, that seems unlikely. These two events combined send a clear signal: the crypto industry’s desire to break into mainstream finance faces much higher technical and compliance hurdles than anticipated.

My take is that tokenized IPOs won’t die, but they’ll slow down. Infrastructure needs time to mature, and the regulatory framework needs to catch up. The next successful tokenized IPO may have to wait until traditional custody and crypto settlement systems are truly integrated.

Until then, rather than chasing concepts, it's better to keep a close eye on those quietly building the infrastructure. When the road is paved, the cars will naturally come.

Today, I was digging through the order book data and found a story that tells a completely different tale from the market's panic.

Last week, when BTC dropped to $59,000, there was a lot of wailing in the market. But now, looking at the on-chain data, buyers have actually been quietly entering the scene. The order book shows that since last Friday's bottom, the bid-ask ratio has consistently been positive at 0.05. This indicates that there are more active buy orders than sell orders, albeit not by a large margin, but the direction is clear.

What's even more noteworthy is the CVD data. Small-volume buyers have net bought $53 million and $157 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the big players who were previously dumping have reduced their net selling pressure by a whopping $900 million. To put it simply: retail investors are buying, and the whales have stopped dumping.

The technicals are also aligning. On the 4-hour chart, there's an RSI divergence; the price made a new low while RSI didn’t follow, which is a classic sign of waning momentum. The current 4-hour RSI is back at 55, which is neutral to bullish. The MACD histogram has turned positive at +98, with the fast line crossing above the signal line, indicating that short-term momentum is recovering. The daily RSI is still around 33, suggesting there’s still room for movement on the mid-term.

The funding rate is only 0.0054%, which is very healthy. This is not a rebound propped up by leverage; it's genuine spot buying coming in. This is crucial, as a rise under low funding rates is far more reliable than one under high rates.

But don’t rush to celebrate. $64,000 is the first resistance level, and beyond that, there's $66,000, which was previously a support turned resistance. One analyst drew an ascending triangle with a target pointing to a liquidity gap between $67,500 and $70,500. However, ahead of the weekend, bullish positions are clearly piling up, with 237 long positions vs. 128 short positions. Historically, weekend profit-taking often interrupts such accumulation.

Additionally, around $64,600, there's a concentration of $2.68 billion in short liquidations. If the price can reach this level, it might trigger a short squeeze. But this requires volume support; currently, the 24-hour trading volume is below $1 billion, showing weak volume.

My judgment is: a bottom structure is forming, and demand-side data is more optimistic than the price itself. However, the range between $64K and $66K is the inflection point for bulls and bears; a breakout is needed for a real trend. Right now, this position feels more like the calm before the storm; it’s not that there’s no wind, it’s just that the wind hasn’t arrived yet.

The cross-border payment space has been buzzing lately.

MassPay and Coinbase just announced their partnership today, launching stablecoin cross-border settlements. They’re covering 180 countries, with Coinbase providing wallet infrastructure and custody, while MassPay handles the fiat withdrawals. The CEO mentioned that customers have seen costs drop by 40% to 70% compared to traditional wire transfers, and settlement times have shifted from days to nearly real-time. The first year's target is to handle nine-figure transaction volumes, meaning over a hundred million dollars in stablecoin cross-border flows.

Sounds like just another partnership announcement, right? But in the context of the entire space, it’s a different story.

Last year, Stripe acquired Bridge, a startup focused on stablecoin enterprise-grade infrastructure, explicitly stating that stablecoins are set to become the key channel for cross-border commerce. Circle launched its Payments Network this April, connecting banks, payment companies, and digital wallets with USDC for real-time cross-border settlements. Now MassPay is bringing Coinbase into the game.

Three independent players, all sharing the same insight: stablecoins are not just toys for the crypto world; they are the next-gen pipeline for cross-border payments.

One more thing, the MassPay CEO honestly admitted that stablecoins currently make up a small portion of their overall transaction volume. That’s the truth. The cross-border payment market is in the trillions, and stablecoins aren't even a drop in the bucket yet. But because their share is small and growing fast, it indicates there's room for expansion.

LINK, representing the oracle and cross-chain infrastructure tokens, is currently sitting at $7.91, barely moving. The 4-hour RSI is at 53.57, which is neutral, and while the MACD histogram has turned positive, the momentum is weak, with funding rates close to zero. The market hasn’t reached a consensus on this narrative yet.

But infrastructure waits for no one. Traditional payment giants are expanding, on-chain oracles and settlement layers are keeping pace, and the stablecoin cross-border payment space is transitioning from concept to contracts. Keep an eye on LINK and related payment infrastructure tokens for upcoming volume-price synergy; a breakout in volume would signal that the market is starting to price this space.

The US regulators have proposed a new plan that could dismantle the biggest legal barriers for trading tokenized US stocks on decentralized exchanges.

Specifically, they plan to abolish two market rules: one that prohibits "trade-through" (meaning an exchange can't execute stock orders at worse prices than other exchanges), and another that stops exchanges from displaying buy and sell quotes that are higher than elsewhere. These rules might not seem related to crypto, but Alex Thorn, the research head at Galaxy Digital, says this could be "the biggest unlocking of tokenized US stocks."

Why's that? Because under the current rules, the automated market makers on decentralized exchanges would continuously trigger trade-through violations when handling tokenized stock trades, which is theoretically illegal. With the abolishment of these rules, market makers can legally provide liquidity for tokenized stocks. Regulators might replace it with a "best execution" framework, giving decentralized trading some compliance leeway.

This timing is quite nuanced. Over the past two months, the tokenization space has been busy: Nasdaq got approval in March to pilot trading tokenized stocks, the NYSE collaborated with Securitize to develop blockchain trading infrastructure, and JPMorgan and Bank of America are prepping a tokenized deposit network expected to launch in the first half of 2027. Digital Asset just secured $355 million in funding to expand the Canton Network. Now, with regulators breaking down legal barriers, it feels like everyone is pushing in the same direction.

ETH's technicals are also worth keeping an eye on. The daily RSI is at 31, already in the oversold zone, while the 4-hour RSI is at 51, neutral. The MACD histogram turning positive at 2.72 indicates some short-term rebound momentum. Interestingly, the funding rates have been negative for several periods; shorts are in control, but the magnitude is small and not panic-driven. If this regulatory change shifts from uncertainty to confirmed positivity, short covering could trigger a rebound.

However, don't get too excited. The proposal is still in a 60-day comment period, and the final version may differ from the current one. Plus, even if the rules change, the liquidity depth of tokenized stocks, market maker participation, and user acceptance remain unknowns. But the direction is clear: the legal barriers for decentralized trading of traditional assets are being dismantled brick by brick.

Checked the market data today, and honestly, it's a bit split.

The Nasdaq 100 dropped 7.5% this week, evaporating $2.7 trillion, oil prices broke 90, and the Producer Price Index skyrocketed to 6.5%, hitting a new high since 2022. Market expectations for a rate hike in September have jumped from 5% a month ago to 40%. The traditional markets are definitely struggling.

But BTC only dipped 0.03%, holding steady at 63,600. The daily RSI is already at 28.9, with ETH even lower at 27.77, both entering the oversold zone. Funding rates are nearly zero, with BTC at just 0.0008% and ETH even turning negative at -0.0022%. Leverage has been cleaned out thoroughly.

What's more interesting is the market divergence. TRUMP surged 20% against the trend, SpaceX's tokenized IPO attracted $557 million on Binance, and SPCXB rose 6.2%. HMSTR plummeted 27%, ZEC fell 7%, and speculative funds are quickly rotating between sectors.

In June, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $1.9 billion, and the Strategy has paused buying. With these signals stacked together, there is indeed a possibility of continuing to dip towards 60K in the short term.

However, this combo of oversold conditions and low leverage has historically been a precursor to a rebound. My take is that those who were going to panic have panicked already, and the market is waiting for a catalyst. The question is when that catalyst will arrive — it could be a drop in oil prices or some macro data improving. Until then, just keep an eye on that 60K level.

SpaceX just went public on Nasdaq, opening up 29% higher, but the experience in the crypto space hasn’t been so glamorous.

Half the crypto world is buzzing about the RWA token-stock narrative, with several platforms having prepped allocations for users ahead of the SpaceX IPO. However, once the new share allocation was done, participants were told there were no shares available, and refunds came with hefty fees of a few hundred bucks. To make matters worse, some saw pre-market contracts rising and decided to short to hedge and lock in profits, only to end up with losses on their shorts while not being able to get their hands on the actual stock. It’s a double whammy, and the experience has been pretty rough.

Some exchanges have provided access to SpaceX equity for over 110 markets through tokenized equity, with tokens pegged 1:1 to the underlying asset and available for trading 24/7. This is what RWA should look like: transparent, verifiable, and not reliant on verbal promises. But the chaos on the other side has really put a dent in the RWA token-stock narrative that’s been brewing in the crypto scene for years.

Data shows that the growth of RWA tokenization itself is very real. According to Binance Research, the active tokenized RWA market has surged by 589% from early 2025 to now, with bonds and money market funds adding $6.5 billion, tokenized stocks up by 422%, and tokenized precious metals gaining another $1.5 billion. The sector is solid, but the chaos in execution is eroding user trust.

SpaceX's IPO was priced at $75 billion, with a 4x oversubscription, which should have been the shining moment for the RWA narrative. Instead, the experience in the crypto space has turned into a cautionary tale. The underlying logic of tokenized stocks is sound, but the distribution, settlement, and how to handle issues are clearly not ready to support such a big narrative.

On the market side, BTC has been trading sideways around 63,500 for the day, with a daily RSI of 32.56 nearing oversold territory. The MACD histogram is still below the zero line but is narrowing, indicating that short momentum is fading. ETH’s daily RSI is 30.36, also in oversold territory, with a funding rate of -0.0022% showing slight negativity, indicating shorts are getting crowded. The overall market isn’t putting extra pressure on the RWA narrative, but it’s not providing much support either.

SpaceX’s 29% opening rise shows that the market values this company, but the events surrounding it in the crypto world have thrown cold water on the RWA narrative. The growth is real, but the infrastructure and trust mechanisms aren’t ready yet. Until RWA can truly prove that tokenized equity is as reliable as a traditional IPO experience, this sector can’t be considered to have truly taken off.

#SpaceXIPO Nasdaq opening quote

Today, the Binance market is pretty interesting. $TRUMP shot up 18%, with a trading volume of over $64 million, nearly 6 times the average of the past 24 hours. HMSTR, on the other hand, dropped 31%. It's a classic case of one up, one down, as the market reallocates chips.

One technical detail worth noting about TRUMP's recent surge is that the 4-hour RSI hit 72, indicating it's definitely overbought. However, the funding rate is negative at -0.03%. A negative funding rate means that short sellers are paying the long holders, and yet the price continues to rise. This isn't a typical chase-the-long rally; it feels more like the shorts are getting squeezed out.

Looking at the market structure, TRUMP's price started around 1.62, peaked at 2.15, and has now retraced to around 2.04 for consolidation. The volume spike is quite evident, averaging 228,000 tokens per hour in the previous 24 hours, and recently skyrocketing to 1,318,000 tokens. The volume-price relationship is solid, not just a fake pump.

However, TRUMP itself lacks any fundamental catalysts. There are no new features, no partnerships, and no ecosystem developments. It's purely driven by liquidity and sentiment. Such situations typically have two outcomes: either a volume breakout that holds, or a pulse decay followed by a retracement.

The overall market backdrop isn’t bad either. BTC is at $63,774, up 0.5%, with a 4-hour RSI at 56.67, leaning slightly bullish, and a very low funding rate of 0.0008%. ETH is at $1,667, down 0.89%, with a funding rate that’s even negative. The entire market leverage is quite low; this isn’t a bubble environment.

Pairing this with the hype around SpaceX's tokenized IPO on Binance, which attracted $557 million and 28,000 wallets participating, retail risk appetite is clearly returning. Funds are flowing out of projects like HMSTR, which have dropped 99%, and into assets with trending topics. TRUMP, being a political meme token, naturally has enough buzz.

My judgment is that the short-term overbought condition needs to be digested. The 4-hour RSI at 72, combined with the negative funding rate, indicates that the bullish momentum is still there, but the shorts have already been cleared out once. If it holds above 1.9 during a pullback, the potential for upward movement could open up. If it breaks below 1.8 directly, then this wave is just a pure short-term pulse. Wait for confirmation signals before making a move.

#TRUMP Token Rebound

The Nasdaq dropped 7.5% in the last week, evaporating $2.7 trillion in market cap, which is more than double BTC's entire market cap. Oil prices shot up to $90, and the Producer Price Index jumped to 6.5%, with the market starting to price in a Fed rate hike in September. In this macro environment, BTC has managed to hold above $63,000, which is stronger than I expected.

The miners are flashing red signals. Charles Edwards from Capriole says that BTC's current trading price is basically the miners' production cost, around $61,200, with a profit margin of only 4.67% after electricity costs, close to a two-year low. Bitbo's miner capitulation indicator has also lit up; historically, when this signal appears, it often indicates an accumulation window. Killa mentioned that the traditional markets might see another pullback later this year, which could be the real bottom for BTC, but the miners are already capitulating.

The daily RSI for BTC is only 34, in the oversold territory. The 4-hour RSI has bounced back to 57, and the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating a recovery in momentum. The funding rate is at 0.0008%, which is quite low, suggesting that this rebound isn't driven by leverage. In June, ETFs saw $1.9 billion in outflows, and Strategy has paused its buys, reflecting weak market sentiment. However, SpaceX's IPO was oversubscribed by more than double, with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, indicating that money hasn't fully exited; it's just waiting for direction.

The situation with ETH is even more interesting. ETH futures open interest on Binance has hit an all-time high of 3.7 million ETH. The taker buy/sell ratio has returned from 0.95 to 1.0, with sellers finally starting to balance after dominating for so long. However, the ratio of perpetual contracts to spot trading volume is nearing historical highs, with leverage participation outpacing spot, which is something to watch out for. After ETH fell 44%, leveraged longs are adding positions; if they're right, it's a massive win, but if they're wrong, it could lead to a liquidation cascade.

The macro environment is indeed challenging, with oil prices, inflation, and rate hike expectations deteriorating. But the miner capitulation, combined with an oversold RSI, healthy funding rates, and the excitement around large IPO subscriptions, indicates that the market is bottoming out rather than crashing. The $60,000 mark is a critical support level; if it breaks, the $48,965 electricity cost line is the miners' last line of defense. Now is not the time to FOMO, but it's also not a time to panic.

Metaplanet just announced the acquisition of Siiibo Securities for 2.1 billion yen, securing a financial instruments business license in Japan. After the deal, Siiibo will be rebranded as Metaplanet Securities, officially becoming a subsidiary of this publicly listed company.

The transaction amount isn’t huge, but the signal is strong. Metaplanet holds 40,177 BTC, with net assets of 457.6 billion yen, roughly 2.8 billion USD, making it the largest BTC holder among publicly listed companies in Japan and third globally. Now they plan to build a 'Bitcoin financial ecosystem' around these BTCs, with the first step being to issue BTC-related yield products to Japanese retail investors.

CEO Simon Gerovich calls this Project Nova. The core logic is: with over 40,000 BTC as underlying assets and a securities license, they can directly issue BTC bonds and other yield products to investors. They’re not just hoarding coins waiting for a pump; they’re transforming BTC into a cash-generating financial asset.

This aligns perfectly with Japan's recent legislative rhythm. The Japanese House of Representatives just passed a bill incorporating crypto assets into the financial product framework, reducing the tax rate from 55% to 20%, and possibly opening the door for ETFs. SBI Group is also pushing deposit-linked crypto reward services, and the Japan Securities Clearing Corporation is collaborating with Mizuho and Nomura to test digital asset clearing. The entire traditional finance sector in Japan is collectively shifting toward crypto infrastructure.

The real significance of Metaplanet’s move: they’re not just buying a securities company; they’re positioning themselves for the licensing rights in Japan’s crypto financial market. When regulations are established and ETFs are approved, only licensed players will be able to scoop up the profits first.

Back to the BTC chart. Currently around 63,610 USD, it’s up about 1% in the past 24 hours, with a daily RSI of 33 still in the oversold zone and a 4-hour RSI of 55 returning to neutral. The MACD histogram has turned positive, but the signal line is still below the zero line, with a funding rate of 0.0024%, indicating that leveraged longs are not crowded. The price is consolidating at this level, and on-chain institutions are quietly setting up their positions—actions like Metaplanet’s are the best testament to this.

Japan is transitioning from 'crypto-friendly' to 'crypto-institutionalized'. Metaplanet’s 2.8 billion USD BTC inventory, coupled with a securities license, could become the prototype for an Asian version of MicroStrategy—but with an added layer of active yield generation ability.

Today, SpaceX is listing on Nasdaq, but Binance has already jumped the gun.

$557 million in USDC is being wagered, with nearly 28,000 wallet addresses participating in Binance's SpaceX tokenized IPO event. In the traditional IPO market, this number might not mean much, but on-chain, it's a whole new beast—retail investors directly betting on the valuation of an unlisted company using stablecoins.

Let's take a look at the participant structure: 81% of the addresses wagered less than $20,000, mostly small retail investors; however, 114 addresses each staked over $500,000, contributing 10.2% of the funds. The whales and retail investors are both in the game, indicating that this isn't just a story of retail taking a gamble.

What's even more interesting is the change in the price discovery mechanism. The SpaceX IPO is priced at $135 per share, with a valuation of about $1.8 trillion. But the synthetic contract SPCX on crypto exchanges has already been trading around $179, a premium of about 30%. This means the crypto market has already signaled a higher price before the official opening. Talos's report shows that the synthetic contracts on Hyperliquid had a pricing error of only 1.3% at the listing of Cerebras, indicating that the price discovery efficiency of these contracts is quite high.

One whale opened a $22.3 million long position in SPCX on Hyperliquid using 2x leverage, entering around $168, with a floating profit of about $1.15 million, spending just over $500 on funding fees. The leverage isn't heavy, and the entry cost is extremely low, showing that the market is bullish but not to the point of madness.

What's the bigger picture behind this? Binance, OKX, Bitget, and Bybit are all launching SpaceX-related products simultaneously, turning crypto exchanges into another distribution channel for IPOs. Previously, IPOs were a Wall Street game where retail could only play via brokers; now, participating directly on-chain has lowered the barrier, but the pricing power has also become more fragmented.

BTC is currently around $63,500, with a daily RSI of 32.81 still oversold, and a 4-hour RSI of 54.67 starting to recover, with the MACD histogram turning positive. BNB is hovering around $606, with an RSI of 55.87 neutral. The funding rate is almost zero, meaning the market isn't using leverage to push prices.

The tokenized IPO of SpaceX is not the end; it's the beginning of crypto exchanges competing for IPO pricing power. When $557 million in on-chain funds is placed in front of a company that hasn't even opened yet, Wall Street finds it hard to pretend it doesn't see.

Citibank launched a blockchain platform today, specifically for trading equity in private companies.

This is way bigger than it sounds. Citibank is one of the top five banks globally, and it has chosen to use tokenized depositary receipts to package shares of pre-IPO companies, allowing investors to hold them directly on-chain just like buying Apple stock. Initially aimed at overseas investors, the U.S. market will open up later.

Why go with depositary receipts instead of an SPV structure? According to Citibank's head of digital assets, Artem Korenyuk, it’s 'more transparent.' Traditional SPV structures are layered and opaque, with unclear underlying assets, whereas tokenized depositary receipts write ownership directly on-chain, reducing both audit and trust costs.

This isn’t just a Citibank initiative. Over the past 12 months, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Franklin Templeton have all been rolling out their own tokenized products. The global private equity market exceeds $18 trillion, with most of it trapped in opaque SPVs and limited partnership agreements. Citibank's move today essentially says: this market needs to migrate on-chain.

By the way, South Korea's LG Electronics also announced today that it is partnering with Arbitrum to transform the $679 billion digital advertising market using blockchain technology. Two completely unrelated companies chose the same path on the same day—migrating the settlement layer of traditional assets on-chain.

Looking at the charts, BTC rebounded to around $63,650 today, with a daily RSI of 33 still in the oversold zone, but the 4-hour MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating that short-term momentum is recovering. The funding rate is only 0.0024%, and leverage is extremely low, suggesting this rebound isn’t just a short squeeze. ARB rose by 4.5% today, with a funding rate of -0.01%. Shorts are still piling in, but the price isn’t dropping, which could trigger a short cover if this situation continues.

Institutions are building infrastructure while prices are grinding at the bottom; when these two things happen simultaneously, it often indicates a setup window. Of course, the daily trend hasn’t confirmed a reversal yet, so patience is more important than direction.

Today, a new face hit the Nasdaq, Avalanche Treasury, ticker AVAT, backed by heavyweights like Dragonfly, Pantera, VanEck, Galaxy, and Kraken. The result? A straight drop of 16% on its first day, opening at $2.20 and closing at $1.85.

This is just the latest case of crypto treasury firms facing a chill.

Let's take a look at the veterans in the same lane: Strategy has seen its stock price plummet by 69% over the past year, BitMine crashed from last July's high of $135 to just $16.5 now, and SOL Strategies is down 92%. BTC treasury's weekly net inflow has dropped from over $2 billion in April-May this year to just $266 million now, clearly indicating capital withdrawal.

AVAX itself isn't looking too hot either, today at $6.61, down 95% from its all-time high in 2021, back to early 2021 levels. RSI is at 46.82, MACD is below the zero line but just had its bars turn positive, showing signs of stabilization but no real reversal yet. Volume is at 13 million, with average liquidity.

The Avalanche ecosystem isn't bad, with over 550 projects in the pipeline, institutional capital deployment exceeding $1 billion, and on-chain RWA tokenization at $1.65 billion. The CEO of AVAT stated this isn't about betting on price, but about repositioning institutional finance. The logic makes sense, but the market clearly isn't buying it.

To put it bluntly, in this environment, crypto treasury firms face an awkward reality: investors can buy the underlying assets directly, so why pay you an extra fee? Unless you can offer something not available through traditional channels, this model will struggle to survive in a bear market.

AVAT's first-day drop isn't an isolated incident; it's a microcosm of the entire sector. Waiting for market sentiment to warm up before reassessing isn't a bad idea.