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The peak of Bitcoin coincides significantly with the PMI peak. Both the 1718 bull market and the 21 bull market are in the PMI peak area. From this perspective, the Bitcoin bull market cycle may not have actually started yet; the rise before this round resembles that driven by ETF adoption and legalization by institutions. $BTC
BTC has already succeeded, it's just that many Chinese people are unwilling to admit it.
The United States 🇺🇸 has accepted BTC; friends in the United States like Japan 🇯🇵 and Europe 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 have also accepted Bitcoin; enemies of the United States like Iran 🇮🇷 and North Korea 🇰🇵 use it to bypass sanctions; rivals like Russia have been kicked out of SWIFT and rely on Bitcoin to sustain foreign trade; in China's special administrative regions like Hong Kong 🇭🇰 and Macau 🇲🇴, cash can be exchanged everywhere.
When the whole world is using, accepting, and relying on it, the question of "will Bitcoin succeed" is no longer an issue. The discomfort comes from the fact that you don't need it, so you don't understand it. There is no demand for cross-border money use or receiving payments; no need for asset preservation; no experience with account restrictions or financial volatility.
The world has already switched tracks, while you are still questioning in place. $BTC
The United States 🇺🇸 has accepted BTC; friends in the United States like Japan 🇯🇵 and Europe 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 have also accepted Bitcoin; enemies of the United States like Iran 🇮🇷 and North Korea 🇰🇵 use it to bypass sanctions; rivals like Russia have been kicked out of SWIFT and rely on Bitcoin to sustain foreign trade; in China's special administrative regions like Hong Kong 🇭🇰 and Macau 🇲🇴, cash can be exchanged everywhere.
When the whole world is using, accepting, and relying on it, the question of "will Bitcoin succeed" is no longer an issue. The discomfort comes from the fact that you don't need it, so you don't understand it. There is no demand for cross-border money use or receiving payments; no need for asset preservation; no experience with account restrictions or financial volatility.
The world has already switched tracks, while you are still questioning in place. $BTC
Strategy announces a $42 billion ATM coin purchase plan, which matches the scale of the 21/21 plan from last year and the year before. Currently, a total of $57.7 billion has been invested, holding 760,000 BTC, and next, another $42 billion will be invested to continue increasing the position, bringing the total investment close to doubling. $BTC
Google's "Help With Mortgage" search volume has soared to an all-time high.
Residents are under extreme pressure from mortgage loans, which is not good news for the economy and the market.
#Macroeconomics #Mortgage #OverseasEconomy
Residents are under extreme pressure from mortgage loans, which is not good news for the economy and the market.
#Macroeconomics #Mortgage #OverseasEconomy
Glassnode Official Indicator: BTC 90-Day Realized Profit and Loss Ratio, Understanding the Major Bull and Bear Turning Points
The BTC core indicator recommended by the Glassnode research team—90-day realized profit and loss ratio—has strong anti-interference properties after significant smoothing, and once a trend forms, it is difficult to reverse in the short term, accurately reflecting market capital flow and liquidity. Currently, this indicator has fallen below 1 into the red zone → realized losses dominate, and the market has completely lost its profitability, with capital liquidity drying up. Historically, major bear market bottoms have occurred after the indicator enters the red zone; once in this range, it typically takes 8 to 12 months to emerge from it, with a clear bottoming cycle.
In other words, by this position, everything that should have fallen has already fallen, and we are just waiting for the "final shudder". $BTC
The BTC core indicator recommended by the Glassnode research team—90-day realized profit and loss ratio—has strong anti-interference properties after significant smoothing, and once a trend forms, it is difficult to reverse in the short term, accurately reflecting market capital flow and liquidity. Currently, this indicator has fallen below 1 into the red zone → realized losses dominate, and the market has completely lost its profitability, with capital liquidity drying up. Historically, major bear market bottoms have occurred after the indicator enters the red zone; once in this range, it typically takes 8 to 12 months to emerge from it, with a clear bottoming cycle.
In other words, by this position, everything that should have fallen has already fallen, and we are just waiting for the "final shudder". $BTC
Americans have empowered BTC and ETH again
CFTC's latest FAQ clarifies: Futures brokers can directly accept clients' BTC and ETH as futures margin, with a maximum of 80% value allowed for opening positions. Previously, institutions/individuals trading gold, crude oil, and stock index futures had to sell coins for USD to pay margin, which created ongoing passive selling pressure.
After the new regulations take effect:
✅ Holding coins without selling, significantly reducing passive selling pressure
✅ Capital efficiency greatly improved, holding coins for appreciation + using them as collateral for opening positions is not a problem
✅ Compliant channels opened, further strengthening the mainstream collateral attributes of BTC/ETH $BTC
$ETH
CFTC's latest FAQ clarifies: Futures brokers can directly accept clients' BTC and ETH as futures margin, with a maximum of 80% value allowed for opening positions. Previously, institutions/individuals trading gold, crude oil, and stock index futures had to sell coins for USD to pay margin, which created ongoing passive selling pressure.
After the new regulations take effect:
✅ Holding coins without selling, significantly reducing passive selling pressure
✅ Capital efficiency greatly improved, holding coins for appreciation + using them as collateral for opening positions is not a problem
✅ Compliant channels opened, further strengthening the mainstream collateral attributes of BTC/ETH $BTC
$ETH
According to Polymarket's current market data for BTC as of March 21, 2026
The probability of being below $45,000 = 47%
The probability of reaching over $100,000 = 40%
The current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $69,000.$BTC
The probability of being below $45,000 = 47%
The probability of reaching over $100,000 = 40%
The current trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $69,000.$BTC
Major compromise in U.S. cryptocurrency regulation, core differences of the CLARITY Act materialize, banks gain face, cryptocurrency gains substance.
1. Prohibit wrapping stablecoin earnings as bank deposit interest products, strictly regulate wording.
2. Limit passive earnings from holding stablecoins, allow rewards for activities like trading and payments.
3. Balance the stability of bank deposits and innovation in the cryptocurrency industry, key obstacles to the bill's advancement cleared.
In simple terms, stablecoins can provide interest, just cannot be called interest. $BTC
$USDC
1. Prohibit wrapping stablecoin earnings as bank deposit interest products, strictly regulate wording.
2. Limit passive earnings from holding stablecoins, allow rewards for activities like trading and payments.
3. Balance the stability of bank deposits and innovation in the cryptocurrency industry, key obstacles to the bill's advancement cleared.
In simple terms, stablecoins can provide interest, just cannot be called interest. $BTC
$USDC
Will MicroStrategy suffer a crisis?
Maybe not in the next two years, but it might really happen in the end. Holding interest-free assets, yet needing to pay 11.5% high interest for STRC every year, with no profits supporting the software business, and BTC is too risky to sell—selling would lead to a collapse spiral. They can only rely on continuously issuing new ones. The biggest advantage for BTC will eventually turn into its biggest disadvantage. $BTC
Maybe not in the next two years, but it might really happen in the end. Holding interest-free assets, yet needing to pay 11.5% high interest for STRC every year, with no profits supporting the software business, and BTC is too risky to sell—selling would lead to a collapse spiral. They can only rely on continuously issuing new ones. The biggest advantage for BTC will eventually turn into its biggest disadvantage. $BTC
BTC four-year cycle bottoms never absent:
✅ First time 2010.10
✅ Second time 2015.01
✅ Third time 2018.12
✅ Fourth time 2022.11
The fifth cycle bottom is already on a countdown, with October-November 2026 being a high probability time window. The probability of deep bear markets is very low with institutions locking in positions, so patiently wait for the right opportunity. $BTC
✅ First time 2010.10
✅ Second time 2015.01
✅ Third time 2018.12
✅ Fourth time 2022.11
The fifth cycle bottom is already on a countdown, with October-November 2026 being a high probability time window. The probability of deep bear markets is very low with institutions locking in positions, so patiently wait for the right opportunity. $BTC
If the four-year cycle is still in place, the worst will only be another six months of decline. If you truly understand the logic of the cycle, there won't be so much anxiety. Even though the current fluctuations are exhausting, the cycle will not be absent; it will only be late. After enduring this most difficult bottoming period, what follows is a new round of major rise; the only loss is time, not the trend. $BTC
This round of market has falsified many L1 public chains and L2, with 14 popular projects raising hundreds of millions of dollars, but weekly income only ranges from $0 to $26,000. The once popular L2 Blast has long returned to zero, and the chain sea tactics have completely failed; from now on, the real core is only application supremacy. $0G
$BERA
$ZK
$BERA
$ZK
The most unusual signal of this cycle: regardless of BTC's rise or fall, the exchange balances are decreasing, and the chips are continuously locked. In previous bull markets, as prices increased, the exchange's inventory would continuously rise, but due to the irreversible supply-side contraction caused by ETF and MicroStrategy's lockups, the Bitcoin available for retail investors on exchanges will become increasingly scarce. $BTC
The encrypted bull market returns, and Bitcoin altcoins soar
When the "Doctor Copper" (copper-gold ratio), "trade canary" (South Korean exports), and "manufacturing thermometer" (U.S. PMI) all send optimistic signals, the rise logic of Bitcoin as a risk asset is thoroughly validated. Currently, it should be in the initial stage of a bull market, rising amidst skepticism. $BTC
$ETH
When the "Doctor Copper" (copper-gold ratio), "trade canary" (South Korean exports), and "manufacturing thermometer" (U.S. PMI) all send optimistic signals, the rise logic of Bitcoin as a risk asset is thoroughly validated. Currently, it should be in the initial stage of a bull market, rising amidst skepticism. $BTC
$ETH
The market share of altcoins has just broken through the short-term moving average to form a golden cross. If it further breaks through the long-term moving average, then 2026 is likely to become a year of altcoin season explosion, just like 2016 and 2020. In other words, the altcoin season that should have erupted in 2025 may have just been postponed. $BTCDOM
Asset performance under various geopolitical conflicts:
Comparison of the 60-day returns of S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin during major geopolitical events:
✅ US-Iran conflict: BTC up 20%, SPX down 7%, gold up 6%
✅ Russia-Ukraine conflict: BTC up 15%, SPX up 3%, gold down 9%
✅ Regional bank crisis: BTC surged 32%, SPX up 4%, gold up 11%
Even during the 2026 Iran conflict, BTC outperformed SPX (-3%) and gold (-4%) with a 14% increase.
The resilience of digital gold during turbulent periods far exceeds that of traditional assets! $BTC
Comparison of the 60-day returns of S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin during major geopolitical events:
✅ US-Iran conflict: BTC up 20%, SPX down 7%, gold up 6%
✅ Russia-Ukraine conflict: BTC up 15%, SPX up 3%, gold down 9%
✅ Regional bank crisis: BTC surged 32%, SPX up 4%, gold up 11%
Even during the 2026 Iran conflict, BTC outperformed SPX (-3%) and gold (-4%) with a 14% increase.
The resilience of digital gold during turbulent periods far exceeds that of traditional assets! $BTC
15 days of US-Iran conflict, global assets reshuffled 🔥
US stocks evaporated 2.4 trillion dollars, gold and silver evaporated 2.5 trillion dollars, these two each evaporated a total market value of a cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, rose 12.5% against the trend, the overall cryptocurrency market rose 10%, and the market value surged by 240 billion dollars. $BTC
US stocks evaporated 2.4 trillion dollars, gold and silver evaporated 2.5 trillion dollars, these two each evaporated a total market value of a cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, rose 12.5% against the trend, the overall cryptocurrency market rose 10%, and the market value surged by 240 billion dollars. $BTC
🔥 In the past 30 days, the L1 public chain revenue rankings show that TRON topped the list with $189.4 million!
This figure has already surpassed the total revenue of all other mainstream L1 public chains shown in the chart.
Every stablecoin transfer, on-chain payment, and DeFi interaction represents real on-chain traffic, continuously generating real revenue for the TRON network.$TRX
This figure has already surpassed the total revenue of all other mainstream L1 public chains shown in the chart.
Every stablecoin transfer, on-chain payment, and DeFi interaction represents real on-chain traffic, continuously generating real revenue for the TRON network.$TRX
Morgan Stanley's latest research report: After Iran's war starts, gold is flowing out, and Bitcoin is flowing in?
After the escalation of the situation in Iran:
• GLD Gold ETF: Net outflow of 2.7%
• IBIT Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of 1.5%
Traditional perceptions are overturned: gold's safe-haven function fails, BTC attracts capital against the trend. Since IBIT launched in 2024, the total amount of capital attracted is about twice that of GLD. As institutional holdings increase and market depth improves, the volatility of Bitcoin is narrowing.
Morgan Stanley's long-term target price remains at $266,000—behind this number is the logic of valuation repricing as volatility converges towards gold. $BTC
After the escalation of the situation in Iran:
• GLD Gold ETF: Net outflow of 2.7%
• IBIT Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of 1.5%
Traditional perceptions are overturned: gold's safe-haven function fails, BTC attracts capital against the trend. Since IBIT launched in 2024, the total amount of capital attracted is about twice that of GLD. As institutional holdings increase and market depth improves, the volatility of Bitcoin is narrowing.
Morgan Stanley's long-term target price remains at $266,000—behind this number is the logic of valuation repricing as volatility converges towards gold. $BTC
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