乔阁部

Left Chart: Gold (黄金)
Timeline: 2008-2026
• Historical multiple high-level consolidations, pullbacks, and recoveries
• Trendline: After pulling back to support, it breaks out into a parabolic bull run
Right Chart: Bitcoin (比特币)
Timeline: 2020-2027
• Multiple high-level accumulation, pullbacks, and recoveries
• Historically mirroring the Gold cycle, pulling back to build momentum, aiming straight for the next super bull market peak at $BTC

Leading indicators are on the rise, could the altcoin season kick off in 2026?
1. The purple top reversal signal + the bottom indicator golden cross perfectly align with the starting points of the super bull markets in 2017 and 2021.
2. Currently, the ISM sentiment indicator and the copper-gold ratio macro indicators are turning up from historical lows, forming a bottom-up pattern that's identical to the previous two bull runs.
3. The trend lines on the charts suggest that this cycle's total crypto market cap has more room to pump, with the next peak likely hitting around 2027 at $BTC

Surprised? Not really.

Veteran traders often cling to the belief of 'bears all year long', stubbornly holding onto that four-year cycle logic, but they failed to realize that the pattern was broken last year — post-halving, not only did we not see a massive pump, but the annual close ended in the red.

Let’s not forget the gold standard BTC, the adjustment phase has been ample, perfectly syncing with the 14-month bearish rhythm of gold.

Right now, the daily gold standard BTC has already found its bottom, just waiting for weekly confirmation; 60k is the bottom for this round, and when that happens, the USD-pegged BTC will catch up — it’s just a matter of time.

Next up, the main event is about to begin. $BTC $XAUT

If you held $1,000 cash in 2015, its value after ten years would be $730, enough to buy an iPhone. But if you had flipped that $1,000 into Bitcoin, it would now be worth $414,500, allowing you to snag a villa.
The value of Bitcoin is clear here; you might say it’s volatile, but in the long run, no asset has outperformed Bitcoin. $BTC

If we successfully build a bottom, the shortest bear market for Bitcoin will emerge. Currently, the Bitcoin weekly chart's bottom-building pattern is mirroring historical formations:
In the last four bear market endings, we've seen the complete signal of 'market structure breakdown → rounded bottom formation → RSI oversold.' This round's bottom-building period of 77 days will be the shortest bear market.
From the perspectives of time, volume, and technical resonance, the RSI bottom characteristics at the current position align closely with the previous three major bottoms. $BTC

According to the latest on-chain data from bitinfocharts, there are approximately 4.486 million addresses holding ≥0.1 BTC.
If we do not consider multiple addresses per individual, the true upper limit of people worldwide who hold and withdraw coins is about 4.486 million.
Based on a global population of 8.286 billion in 2026, this group makes up only 0.054% of the total global population.
A very small number of people hold a very small number of consensus assets. $BTC

Why do people say the bear market has ended?
Before the troops move, provisions must be prepared. USDT increased its issuance by $2.2 billion last Monday, and the supply has returned to a high level near the $120,000 mark for Bitcoin. In the last bear market, it took over 300 days for USDT to recover from a low point to its historical peak, and the market remained bearish for more than a year. This time, it returned to its peak in just 100 days, and the momentum of issuance is still continuing.
The funding level has been fully drawn, it's just a matter of how the market responds. $BTC

As of this month, BlackRock has purchased 16,000 bitcoins at a cost of up to 1.2 billion dollars. Many are still waiting for 40,000 or 50,000 bitcoins, but institutions are firmly buying and increasing their holdings, further strengthening the long-term logic of bitcoin. $BTC

M2 diverges from BTC price, a correction is 100% imminent.
It's not the currency that will be corrected, but rather the explosive growth that Bitcoin is about to initiate. History has repeatedly proven: during the period of monetary easing when the coin price drops, it is the best time to buy. $BTC

Bitcoin is about to welcome trillions of dollars in incremental funds.

The population over 60 in the United States holds $110 trillion in wealth, most of which will be passed down to the younger generation.
Among them, 45% of young people already own Bitcoin and crypto assets, and after inheriting this wealth, their first choice for investment will be Bitcoin.

Grayscale estimates: even if only 2% of funds flow in, it can bring an additional net demand of $2.2 trillion, while Bitcoin's current total market value is only $1.5 trillion.
Bitcoin is entering the strongest structural bull market in history, and this is just the beginning.$BTC

A historic moment! The X platform officially enters the stock and cryptocurrency trading market. The X platform makes a significant entry into the financial sector, being the first to launch stock and cryptocurrency trading features in the United States and Canada 🚀
Users can send tags like $TSLA to view real-time prices for stocks like Tesla and cryptocurrencies with one click, and directly jump to the relevant information. Currently, it has partnered with Canada’s largest brokerage, Wealthsimple, to pilot the initiative, initially opening up to the Canadian region and gradually covering the global market. For cryptocurrencies, this will be a huge traffic entry point with active monthly users reaching 500 to 600 million. $BTC

Based on Bitcoin's current market value, to rival gold, it needs to rebound at least 30 times. From this judgment, the next bull market for BTC, starting from the current price, has at least 10 times more space.
The world is continuously shifting from the real to the virtual, and Bitcoin will ultimately surpass gold, becoming the most fundamental value anchor. $BTC

After experiencing nearly continuous declines since 2023, the percentage of circulating Bitcoin held in wallets for more than 2 years has risen again, which is a strong signal of the cycle's bottom.
The accumulation behavior of long-term holders with more than 10 years of holding is highly correlated with the bottom. $BTC

The Bitcoin ETF purchased $240 million worth of 3,350 BTC yesterday, with a total holding now of 721,090 BTC, valued at $56.75 billion. As of the 5th, the strategy holds 766,970 $BTC, with two major institutions locking up nearly 1/10 of the circulating supply of Bitcoin and continuing to buy.

The weekly MACD for Bitcoin has officially crossed bullish! The trend has completely shifted from bearish to bullish, which is a key signal for a medium-term reversal.
In the last cycle, the FTX collapse dragged the bear market on.
This time, as long as there is no escalation of war or a market crash level black swan, this is the bottom of the current bear market, a very high probability safe bet. If a black swan event occurs, it cannot be ruled out that there will be one last drop. $BTC

Iran charges $2 million for each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz and requires payment in Bitcoin.😳
At a rate of $$BTC 72.00 per Bitcoin, each ship = 27.7 BTC. If we reference a pre-crisis daily volume of 130 ships.
• Daily: 3,611 BTC
• Monthly: 108,333 BTC
• Annually: 1.3 million BTC
PS: The entire Bitcoin network only mines 450 coins per day. $BTC

The historical lows of Bitcoin can always be traced✅
2011, 2015, 2018, 2022, the bottom of each bear market has been closely aligned with the actual price.
The same cyclical pattern, perfectly validated four times.
Understanding this line means understanding the bull and bear cycle of Bitcoin.$BTC

【The four-year period has arrived📯】
15-year bear bottom ($150): Active chip ratio 22.9%
18-year bear bottom ($3100): Active chip ratio 23.2%
22-year secondary bear bottom ($17.6k): Active chip ratio 22.4%
Current: Active chip ratio 19.6%, reaching a historic low!

What does this mean? The chips for short-term trading in the market have decreased to an extreme, with the vast majority of BTC firmly held by long-term holders. A historic bottom signal has appeared, patiently waiting for the turning point in the cycle. $BTC

Let me show you a more critical indicator: the number of profitable BTC positions — how many bitcoins are in profit, which can help you determine what stage we are currently in.
Data from the bottom of bear markets over the past 15 years:
• 2011 bottom: 3.5 million profitable, price 2.5U
• 2015 bottom: 5 million profitable, price 250U
• 2019 bottom: 7.5 million profitable, price 3500U
• 2022 bottom: 9 million profitable, price 16000U
2026 now: 10 million BTC profitable, price 66000U
In every round of the deepest bear markets, the number of profitable bitcoins has been steadily increasing. In the extreme bear market of 2022, nearly half of the bitcoins were profitable. Now at this level of 10 million, it is already close to the bottom of the previous bear market. No one can pinpoint the exact bottom, but at this position, I choose to invest 1000U monthly. $BTC

Drift (the leading derivative protocol on Solana) was hacked, with an amount of approximately $270–285 million, becoming one of the largest DeFi heists in Solana's history.
More than half of such thefts in the crypto world are insider jobs, and there is almost no chance of recovery. This incident serves as a wake-up call; I will not participate in any DEFI projects in the future and will only hold Bitcoin and a few mainstream coins. $DRIFT