BIT居士

The demise of meme coins will be a crucial marker for the crypto space's self-recovery. Right now, meme coins are doing more harm than good, making traditional institutions and individuals see crypto as a scam or a tulip bubble. Meme coins perfectly illustrate what a flash-in-the-pan scam looks like; anyone can just launch a token to 'cut the grass' on unsuspecting investors. This only adds to the negative perception of crypto, making it even more disliked and avoided. Meme coins are the cancer of the crypto world.

Real tech-driven projects are also suffering from this toxic influence, which will slow down the development of the crypto space. Meme coins will become a target after this bear market and will gradually fade into the annals of history.

The crypto space is a self-revolutionizing system that can self-correct; it thrives on freedom and innovation.

Ethereum, that wild crypto, tends to pump when everyone's doubting it. When confidence starts to bounce back, it usually dumps on everyone. That's just how it rolls. The tech behind Ethereum is absolutely solid, but the trust in the Ethereum Foundation leaves a lot to be desired. Vitalik's performance hasn't exactly inspired confidence either, but 90% of his assets are genuinely in Ethereum. Techies often don't play the social game well, but at least they're grounded in reality.

My personal take is that when people look down on Ethereum again, it’s prime time for it to liquidate the shorts. It will likely lead the charge before Bitcoin sets off its own rally. The downside is limited, while the upside potential keeps expanding.

As for me, I’m steadily stacking up on spot.

My vision for the future development of Ethereum:

Ethereum needs a complete overhaul, and the most effective way forward seems to be BitMine stepping up as the long-term leader of the foundation. This isn't an option; it's a necessary evolution.

The community's dissatisfaction with the current Ethereum Foundation: the foundation sells the native token instead of staking it. Staking the native token to earn interest is widely accepted and heavily supported, but selling the native token is where the community feels the most frustration!

The current reform measures and upgrade plans for Ethereum are solidifying its position, including privacy upgrades, L2 returning to L1 to impact other chains, decentralized AI upgrades, smart contract fundamentals, AI-driven payments, quantum resistance upgrades, etc. These all hold significant value, but the only flaw at this moment is the Ethereum Foundation selling tokens.

Personal prediction:

Once BitMine stacks enough coins, they should stake all of their Ethereum—about 5 to 6 million ETH—with an annual yield between 2.5% and 3%. This would generate around 150,000 ETH in annual interest. They could donate 50,000 to 80,000 ETH each year to the new or existing Ethereum Foundation as a development fund for Ethereum. While this involves substantial donations, it would be absolutely beneficial for Ethereum's price and indirectly advantageous for BitMine. At 50,000 to 80,000 ETH donated annually, we're looking at roughly $150 million, enough to cover various expenses of the Ethereum Foundation. I believe that if this approach is taken, Ethereum's price will not stop here; doubling its value means an annual donation worth $300 million, reaching $6,000 results in annual donations worth $450 million. Then, establishing a decentralized foundation to pool the donation funds, providing significant rewards to researchers who contribute to the upgrades and maintenance of Ethereum, transferring power down to the community to vote on who qualifies and who gets expelled. If a researcher earns $2 million a year, $450 million would assemble a team of 225 top blockchain researchers, which would be several times the size of the current Ethereum Foundation. Even taking half of that, $225 million, would still yield over 100 top-tier researchers. This would create a gap that other chains couldn't cross.

I believe BitMine will announce a donation plan in the near future, likely around the midterm elections in November.

I'm offloading leverage; for Ethereum spot, I will start gradually accumulating from now on.

The delisting of privacy coins from centralized exchanges is definitely a good thing. ZEC isn’t going to disappear; instead, it's going to be stronger. All trading is now on-chain, so centralized exchanges can't just sell coins behind the scenes anymore, resulting in an instant reduction in circulation. Centralized exchanges will be scrambling to buy ZEC on the market to replenish the real tokens they sold previously for withdrawals. Trading privacy coins on decentralized exchanges is just perfect.

I just DCA'd 200 Ethereum contracts and snagged 100 Ethereum in spot.

The contracts are pure speculation, so don’t blindly follow. The spot is meant for riding the next bull run. Let’s squeeze the shorts before we see another drop.

The market is set to start a downtrend outside of US hours, likely gearing up to wipe out some shorts.

Bitcoin has broken its 4-year cycle, and Ethereum will lead the next bull run. Although Ethereum has been a bit weak lately, remember that where there's smoke, there's fire; the harder it drops, the higher it will bounce back. Every dip is an opportunity for us to jump in. If you're unsure where the bottom is, then dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin or Ethereum is the best strategy.

Bitcoin and Ethereum won’t just run to the moon; there will be another drop, one that feels just like previous bear markets with significant declines, leading everyone to panic sell and open shorts, which will flip the market and create a bounce.

The average trader should take off their contract leverage and buy spot after a drop. If you believe Bitcoin can rise back to $126,000 and Ethereum can hit $4,900 again, then if you’re too scared to buy Bitcoin at $60,000 or $70,000, or Ethereum at $2,000 or $1,800, you’re bound to miss out on profits in the crypto space. If you’re waiting for Bitcoin at $40,000 or Ethereum at $1,200, I can clearly tell you: either you'll miss out on the next bull run, or even if the price hits those levels, you’ll still be too greedy to buy, hoping for lower prices.

The cost of this will be missing out on the main wave of the next bull market. Because not only do you want to catch the bottom, but you also tend to sell the moment it rises a little.

The Clarity Act is almost a sure thing to pass. Even though it requires over 60 votes in the Senate and the Republicans only have 53, they'll need 7 votes from the Democrats to get it through. However, this bill was overwhelmingly passed in the House last year, and the opposing forces have been stalling it for nearly a year now.

The biggest hurdle regarding stablecoin yields has already been compromised; the banks saved face, and the crypto space got what it needed.

As soon as the bill hits the Senate, those who have been secretly blocking it won't dare to stir up public anger. If they openly oppose it, they’ll be personally held accountable, and nobody wants to be labeled as a roadblock to making the U.S. a digital asset hub. No one wants to lose the support of the crypto community, and if the Democrats block this bill now, they risk losing that community's backing in the midterms. The Democrats previously even set up a website to accept donations in digital assets, showing they recognize the importance of this large group that they can't afford to alienate. While the crypto community won't decisively swing the elections, it's clear that whoever gains their support will have a better shot at winning. Personally, I believe the Democrats won't trip over the same rock twice. They won’t lose sight of the big picture over the objections of a few individuals. The Democrats aren't going to create further division with the crypto space, and you’ll see that in the next presidential election: the Democrats will embrace crypto more than the Republicans.

In the U.S., many large consortiums, corporations, and even 50 million Americans have already entered the crypto space. Which party wants to lose the backing of these people? While these 50 million won't necessarily change their votes just because a party doesn’t support digital assets, it could sway a portion, like 30 million to 20 million or 28 million to 22 million; those ratios are very likely. A difference of a few million votes can be very appealing for a party's election campaign. Therefore, the Democrats won’t make the same mistake again; they won’t be branded as mindlessly opposing and not supporting digital assets or blocking the U.S. from becoming a future digital asset center.

Get rid of high leverage and futures, keep enough capital, and wait for a violent shakeout of the bulls before kicking off a super bull market. Keep an eye on the 70k round number below; don't expect it to drop to 50k or 40k. The bear market low is almost certainly around 59.8k.

Don't try to catch the bottom, and don't try to catch the top. The cost of trying to catch the bottom can almost 100% guarantee you'll miss out on a bigger rally. The cost of trying to catch the top is getting caught holding the bag. When Bitcoin drops by 10k, it's a great time to start buying, even in a bull market.

The Bitcoin bull run doesn’t just start after the halving; by the time the halving occurs, the bull market has already traveled 2/3 of the way, with the final price surge being a distribution process.

Everyone now knows that Bitcoin will eventually bounce back after a drop; during previous bull and bear cycles, there were doubts about Bitcoin's survival. Now, that doubt is almost gone. Institutions and long-term holders are buying in large amounts at 60k and 70k, and they won’t sell even if it drops. There are still some chips and funds that haven't been flushed out: those who firmly believe in the bear market cycle and briefly bought at 60-70k will sell when prices approach their cost basis. Those who strongly believe in the bear market cycle and are shorting at high levels will have their thinking shaped by this drop. Then both groups of chips and funds will be harvested together. Bitcoin won’t drop too deep, because when it falls significantly, shorts will take profits and then flip to longs. If it hits 40k, it will create a situation where newcomers trying to catch the bottom will be unprecedented; no bear market has seen such determination to find the bottom as this one, and the risk of further downside is too high. Previous bear markets were filled with thoughts that Bitcoin was dead; this time, everyone is hoping for the bear market bottom to come quickly so they can get in.

UBS Group has bought $1.1 billion in MSTR, and Bitcoin is gaining global recognition; this is no mere talk. The claims that Bitcoin is a tulip, a massive scam, or a Ponzi scheme have all been debunked over time. When major consortia, publicly traded companies, and nations start taking Bitcoin seriously, if you're still saying it has no value, it speaks volumes about your understanding—you're unlikely to make money beyond your current grasp.

What I understand is this: if you don't hold Bitcoin, you might resort to various slanders and verbal attacks to numb yourself or sway others, hoping Bitcoin will crash back to its starting point so you can buy in, or short it to zero. As a trader, shorting Bitcoin is the biggest blunder, given its characteristics—you’re betting against an asset that has a capped supply and is rapidly gaining acceptance. Shorting a long-term bullish asset, like US stocks or gold, is just not a wise choice. Of course, without short sellers, Bitcoin wouldn't see its rapid surges; shorts inadvertently fuel Bitcoin's rise.

Bitcoin is the benchmark for currency overproduction, more persuasive than gold, which can be mined indefinitely.

When something is proven to be safe, reliable, and capped in supply, it inherently holds immense value, as the world needs such a reliable anchor.

Initially, paper money was pegged to gold and silver; later, the dollar became pegged to oil, and now, paper currency is entirely backed by state credit. However, while this state credit may seem unbreakable, it is actually the most unreliable. As a currency issuer, would you not at some point consider endlessly printing the currency you control? Would you be trusted in the long run? Bitcoin resembles a new monetary system, an anchorage of electricity: capped supply, fully decentralized, mathematically validated, and the most efficient automatic operation in a new monetary framework. Some might bring up quantum attacks: setting aside Bitcoin’s potential upgrades, even without them, only 5 million coins lost and Satoshi's 1.1 million coins are at risk from quantum attacks, and this is a one-time attack; once executed, Bitcoin becomes immune to further attacks.

Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin is the best decision you could make in your lifetime.

If Ethereum drops to 1800, I'm jumping in to buy 100 ETH spot right away, showing my absolute conviction in Ethereum. Hitting 4800 shouldn't be an issue, right? I can’t be the only one thinking this! So, will Ethereum actually dip to 1800? Or can it find support there? If it drops to 1000, I’ll scoop up 200 ETH immediately to show my respect for Ethereum.

But the Ethereum Foundation needs to step up; stop dumping coins already! If they keep selling, there won't be any left. Otherwise, just hand it over to BitMine to manage; their annual interest could cover multiple sell-offs.

When opening a position, you gotta hold back, hold back, hold back. Don't rush, don't rush, don't rush. Always keep some funds ready for those spike opportunities, not the small spikes, but the big ones. A spike of 600 to 1000 points in Bitcoin is the best entry point, and for Ethereum, at least a spike of 20 points. Better to miss out than to make a mistake.

Market makers are always hunting your stop losses, so lower your order frequency. After a big rise, a drop is inevitable, and after a big drop, a rise is too. Even though I don’t want Bitcoin to drop, it's already surged by 23,000 points, so it's highly likely to pull back to around 70,000 to 65,000 before kicking off another bull run. Ethereum is a wild card; it's hard to predict its levels, but I guess it’s going to move in the opposite direction of Bitcoin for a while. In the next bull market, Ethereum will lead the charge, and a daily increase of 500 to 800 points is not exaggerated at all. The key is to focus on spot trading, and only allocate 1% of your funds to play with contracts—don't get carried away.

ETH is likely to replicate a 300-point surge. Check out the chart; Ethereum also felt stuck before, but it quickly rallied in the next two days, then dropped sharply in the following days, returning to the initial surge point. I've set my stop-loss and entered a long position with 100 ETH for validation, aiming to take profit at 2570.

I prefer to watch the 3-day moving average; it's just one step away. Bitcoin rallied quickly by 4000 points in a day, then dropped back down. How's everyone planning to respond? Ethereum could spike 300 points and then drop back quickly, seeking support again. The bulls and bears are going to be ground down.

Ethereum is on the verge of a breakout, it's been a long grind but it's about to smash through. Once it breaks, it'll head straight for the previous highs.

If Bitcoin and Ethereum take another dive, with Bitcoin dropping 10,000 points and Ethereum 400 points, go ahead and confidently dollar-cost average (DCA) in, and even ramp up your DCA. The only reason for the drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum is to liquidate long positions, so everyone needs to reduce their leverage and buy spot.

Ethereum is considered a bit of a wild card; it's not uncommon for it to surge 500 points in a day. BitMine is holding 5 million coins, soon to hit 6 million, and with the ETH treasury and family offices, they’ll have over 10 million coins. With staked ETH, the circulating supply is quite low, and all it takes is one catalyst for a price increase. If ETH drops down to 2000 again, the buying pressure will at least double compared to before; there just won't be enough ETH available. The same logic applies to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin drops to 60,000 now, I believe a ton of people will start dollar-cost averaging in, and if it goes down to 40,000, most won’t be foolish enough to sell again. The whales won't be dumb enough to know that 40,000 will be the buy point for everyone and still go ahead and smash the price; the cost is too high. In the last round, Bitcoin's low was 18,000, and FTX's collapse smashed it down by 3,000 points, while everyone was waiting for a bottom at 15,000, not realizing they should be buying at 12,000 and 8,000. This time, the same thing is happening; everyone is waiting for 45,000 and 38,000, but they won't get it. For Ethereum, everyone is waiting for 1500, 1200, or even 800, but they won’t get that either. If it hits 800, BitMine will buy another 5 million coins to lower their cost; they can print stock to sell, so they have no cost at all. The same logic applies to MicroStrategy; they have no costs, just need to tell a story and issue stock to get money at zero cost. Many newbies are still waiting for them to collapse. They only need to pay interest, and while the interest is high, they can sell stocks like crazy to fund it, covering 5 years of interest even if Bitcoin drops to 10,000; they wouldn't sell their coins.

Buy Ethereum now; it's set to make a move, and we're hunting the shorts. Targeting a 300 point rise. If Bitcoin fills the gap at 84000 smoothly, it’s likely to push towards 85000. Ethereum could very well break through 2700. I bought 100 ETH spot, and 50 ETH contracts to test the waters, with a stop loss set at 2290.

When resistance levels are tested repeatedly, a breakout is likely, and when support levels are hit multiple times, a breakdown is imminent. So what defines 'repeated'? It's three times or more. After the 4th or 5th test, the likelihood increases significantly. The 79,300 level has already been tested three times, so the next 4th or 5th test will likely break it, assuming we see those additional attempts.

Bitcoin has already tested this level three times; if we hit the 4th or 5th time, it’s likely to push through. Again, this assumes there will be those additional tests.

However, there's some bad news—the bulls are clustering below, which is not ideal and could lead to a bull trap.

I've got a feeling Ethereum's about to pump with a massive 300-point green candle, currently at 2305. I'm gonna take a long position to validate this, and I've set my stop-loss at 2270.

We're at a critical junction in the bull-bear cycle right now. If we drop, we're back to the traditional bull-bear market patterns. If we rise, we might break the bull-bear cycle trend.

The driving forces behind this still seem to have some strength.

But have you noticed a pattern on the 4-hour chart? We see slow gains for a bit, then a sudden drop. This creates a lower high and a lower low, clearly indicating we're drawing lines here. The question is, are the bears in control, or is there a force trying to break the bull-bear cycle? This will directly determine how things play out next. If we don't achieve a solid breakout above the last peak at 77920, then we might very likely see a drop to around 70k to 72k. The good news is that Bitcoin's daily chart has already broken out of the same downward trend as the traditional bull-bear cycle, but the bad news is that this breakout happened outside of US trading hours, which makes it unstable.

In today's crypto scene, even a dog can be a KOL. And these so-called analysts, they only turn bullish after the price has already pumped and bearish after it has dumped.

Regular folks shouldn't try to trade the waves; can you outsmart the market makers? You set your stop-loss, and every fluctuation seems to always hit your stop-loss first before reversing. Trading contracts is a losing game; it's not about fearing your wins, but fearing that you won't even participate—it's just like gambling.

The only winning strategy for the average trader is dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Stay away from scammy altcoins and steer clear of contracts. DCA is a strategy even the whales fear, but you have to stick to Bitcoin and Ethereum; don't touch anything else.

Does anyone feel that the real Bitcoin peak is at 124k in August 2025, rather than 126k in October 2025? Although 126k is higher than 124k, if you compare the characteristics of the last bull market peak with this one, as well as the drop patterns from the previous high and the current high, along with the monthly candlestick charts and other features, it's clear that the 124k level resembles a topping pattern more closely. We need to disregard any spike behavior and not just chase after shadows.

I predict that the Bitcoin bottom will be in August 2026, not in October as most people think. May will show a shadowy bearish candle, followed by a bearish candle in June, a bullish candle in July, and then a downward spike bottom in August. After that, we’ll see some consolidation in September, October, and November, leading to a mid-November election that will provide certainty, and the bull market will kick off from there.

The bottom is likely to be between 52k and 58k and won't drop to the 30k-40k range. Just a heads up, the big bearish candle at the bottom of the last bear market was triggered by the FTX collapse. This time, with institutional players and sovereign wealth funds backing it, the bottom won't follow past experiences.

It's not hard to see that the third drop of the last bottom went from 17k to 15k; if we chase shadows this time, it might be around 60k to 54k, and there could be spike behavior. A drop of 2000 points is also very likely, which is why I’m giving a low-end bottom of 52k. If institutions start to front-run, that spike at the bottom won't hold much significance.