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0424 Daily Market Analysis - Risk Premium is a Bit High
On the last trading day of the US stock market, geopolitical news has been fluctuating back and forth. The monkey market of the past two weeks has made trading significantly more challenging. In the short term, the focus remains on the US-Iran talks as the market's centerpiece. So, news will be very frequent. It's crucial to manage risk well lately because a big move is coming soon.
$BTC Bitcoin is following the US stock market, maintaining a high-level consolidation. Volume is continually narrowing, and volatility is starting to contract. There's a clear bearish divergence on the 4H level. The risk sentiment from chasing highs driven by news is accumulating. The fees have noticeably shifted from a clear negative premium to positive. The accumulated shorts have been continuously worn down.
260422 Daily Market Analysis - Bears Are Feeling the Squeeze Again
Geopolitical news has started to stagnate, with negotiations stuck at a standstill. In a little-noticed corner, the new Fed chair nominee, Waller, is participating in a hearing. A lot of surface-level rhetoric, like the Fed being out of anyone's control. But the crypto-friendly vibe has undoubtedly boosted some confidence in the market. US stocks began to pile on the volume post-market, rallying again during the day. $BTC
Once again, we saw a volume spike pushing us to the previous high of 78k. Then, we started to stall and consolidate. Chasing the highs is not advised anymore. We're seeing some stagnation on smaller timeframes, but reversal signals are not very clear.
Iran recently announced a Bitcoin toll of 1 dollar per barrel for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and scammers immediately impersonated Iranian government officials to send false information to shipowners. On April 18, at least one tanker that had paid Bitcoin fees to the scammers was intercepted by Iranian vessels while attempting to pass through the strait and was forced to turn back. Greek maritime risk management company MARISKS warned that criminals are asking shipowners to pay fees in Bitcoin or Tether and instructing them to submit documents for assessment by the so-called Iranian security authorities. MARISKS confirmed that the aforementioned requests are all fraudulent information, and it is currently unclear the specific identity of the affected companies.
Having been scammed, now facing more trouble. It's really quite tragic 😂. #美伊冲突接下来会如何发展?
Iran is tough and proud, not planning to participate in peace talks. U.S. stocks hit a second high, triggering sell orders. Bitcoin rebounded 77, just 1 dollar short of increasing long-term short positions. Fortunately, successfully increased short positions at 765. Binance life waited for three days. Finally, perfectly entered short at 0.52. Huh, watching the market is taxing my brain. $BTC $币安人生 #美伊冲突接下来会如何发展? #山寨币复苏?
260421 Daily Market Analysis - Negotiation? Crypto: You talk yours, I crash mine.
Last night's US stocks did not show strong strength. After filling the gap during the session, it turned into fluctuations. Intra-day, the US stocks once again reached the previous high after hours. Whether it can break through and continue to boost market sentiment is worth watching. The current time node is very delicate, coinciding with the resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran. The bilateral media is pulling back and forth, giving the market ample room for thought. The US stock market took the lead: you can talk, I will rise.
$BTC The big cake is not as strong as the US stocks. After retracing to the expected position of 735, it started to rebound with reduced volume. Intra-day, it rebounded again to the integer level around 77. The important pressure area for the rebound will start to show significant selling pressure.
On Friday, the US stock market continued its upward trend from earlier in the week. While severely overbought, it continued to rise slowly and squeeze shorts. Especially during the period when the geopolitical conflict "seemed to be ending," the understanding king sent out 11 posts to celebrate. This American-style winning strategy must have been learned quite a bit by the neighboring three brothers, especially by Xiao Mo. Back to the market. In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has continued to rise along with the US stock market. Most shorts in the market have suffered ruthless squeezes. In the rapid rise, most became fuel. So is it a bull return, or a bullish trap after squeezing shorts?
$BTC The 4H bullish framework for Bitcoin is still ongoing. After reaching 78,000, it started to be affected by news.
0417 Daily Market Analysis - Against the Odds in U.S. Stocks
The U.S. stock market's rally simply cannot be stopped. There is no sign of a peak at all. The scary thing is that it has already had 12 consecutive days of gains. Behind this is the combination of the understanding king and Wall Street's maneuvers. As for how high it can go, it is still rising even with reduced volume. Just quietly watch it rise.
$BTC Bitcoin is adjusting in a high position flag pattern. It is testing upwards again today. However, the volume is not large. Moreover, there has been a significant divergence from the 1H-4H levels. So the significance of chasing highs has become less. One should wait for a chance to buy low during a pullback, at least until the U.S. stock market gives a pullback. Look for opportunities to buy again when Bitcoin also pulls back. Opportunities for shorting can start around 775-79. This is an opportunity for medium to long-term short positions. One can try with a small position and a wide stop loss.
Following the high position pullback of the US stock market, ending two short positions.
The news about the Lebanon-Israel talks came out, directly reversing up. There are too many news items, the wise king uses his mouth to draw lines, and traders need to use their wallets to place orders. 😅