一哥交易经

The US dollar index has been continuously weakening since last week. Gold has not followed through with an upward move. Oil has started to gradually pull back after “TACO” by Trump.
On the surface, the situation seems more positive than negative—so why does Bitcoin do a catch-up rally while the US stocks keep climbing rapidly?
After the US stock market opened on Monday, it surged with a large gap up and kept rising. Ahead of the close, it is now nearing the previous high around 7630—indeed quite strong.
$BTC
After revisiting the 624 area again, it started to rebound. However, the performance in crypto isn’t as strong as the US stock market—the rebound strength is average. Then, pull back again to the 638 area to test the resistance.
Structurally, the market still maintains a retest after the channel breaks down, so the risk-reward ratio for chasing on a smaller timeframe is quite small. The 646 resistance level above is relatively close. After observing the price’s weak performance in this area and then breaking out, the risk-reward ratio for setting up a short position by lying in wait behind the resistance is a bit higher.

Trading in June and July has been quite challenging. Next, we move into a new month.
Let me first share some not-so-pleasant historical data with everyone—"to carve a boat and seek a sword." In the past few years, August each year has been the month when both US stocks and crypto enter an adjustment cycle; most of the time it has been dominated by declines.
This week’s important data is Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. There will be two employment data releases before Friday.
With the market backdrop of maintaining balance sheet reduction and not cutting rates or raising rates, we need to pay more attention to how US stocks move in tandem with other markets.
The S&P 500 in the US stock market has been consolidating near the highs for about 75 days. For this kind of large-scale oscillation that gradually tightens into a converging structure—what matters most is not guessing whether it will keep rising,

First, for the US stock market: volatility is not big—there is narrow-range consolidation and convergence within a trading range structure.
The index is not moving much, but individual stocks are separating badly—for example, Apple keeps making new highs; it’s just tough as nails.
On the other hand, the AI sector and storage are crumbling messily.
During the day, the Japan-South Korea index triggered a circuit breaker again. The three giants—Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk—still remain on the downward staircase; the “one collapse per day” is still ongoing.
So, the long positions from the left-side catching-the-bottoms—those who pick up a flying knife—are the real warriors. Rize,拜!
$BTC
Bitcoin’s pullback came in two stages, reaching the lower end of the upward channel. After making new lows on the smaller timeframe, it followed the US market upward and reclaimed with higher volume.

Last week, US stocks were weak and traded in a narrow range. After pushing up the crypto sector, it started to fall back.
ETFs saw a back-and-forth pattern of inflows and outflows, but overall outflows were higher after settlement.
As the geopolitical conflict continues, over the weekend Trump announced he would stop targeting it. The market saw a modest rebound during non-US-stock trading hours.
Pre-market price action in US stocks suggests the market isn’t buying what Trump is saying.
The intra-day CLEAR Act has seen the draft released. After dragging things on for a few days over moral and ethical issues, it was finally brought back. So as long as there aren’t any new major problems, it will likely be formally approved and implemented in the near term.

This week’s US stocks are uneasy, compounded by the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts.
Oil is once again rallying; US tech stocks are seeing a sustained pullback, and sector differentiation remains very severe.
$BTC
Bitcoin’s choppy upward move is starting to show some divergence.
Upward momentum is starting to weaken; the reward-to-risk ratio for chasing trades no longer matches the risk.
I’m holding a short position, and the holding experience isn’t great either.
In this kind of choppy upward rhythm, to really put an end to it, you typically need a burst of high volume to quickly surge higher and accelerate—so you can feel conviction.
In the short term, maintaining a channel-up structure boils down to two situations.
1. Climb upward in a choppy, upward consolidation to absorb and digest the sell pressure from the past, waiting for the TACO to complete a volume-backed breakout—especially with a clear timeline driver from the news regarding the bill.