一哥交易经

The S&P 500 in the US stock market continues to push upward. With the Strait being "blocked" again.
Oil prices have started to "drop instead of rise." This somewhat goes against common sense.
If one really has to explain, it boils down to a few points:
1 There has been too much profit-taking in crude oil early on, and the understanding king has repeatedly TACO. The market has begun to desensitize.
2 has begun to release reserves. And the policy direction has started to suppress oil prices.
3 The risk of recession has been raised again, causing inflation concerns. Hot money has started to concentrate on US stocks.

$BTC
Once the background is understood, one can comprehend what the current situation is doing. It is similarly following the short squeeze of the US stock market.
While the futures have completed the upward filling of gaps, they have also taken away many of the shorts accumulated in the market, turning these shorts into accelerants during the rally.

Last week, news of U.S.-Iran negotiations began to emerge, with both delegations attempting talks in Pakistan.
Market expectations can lead to a resolution of the conflict, but things are not progressing in the direction everyone anticipated.
After the morning talks ended, there was no substantial progress. As a result, the anticipated benefits did not materialize, and the market immediately chose to turn downward. The large pancake experienced a slight and rapid flash crash early in the morning.
The only thing we can do is wait for the next negotiation to see if there can be any substantial progress.
$BTC
The large pancake quickly surged upward in volume early in the morning. It almost reached the 739 level. Fortunately, the bottom position remains, even though the shorts set up last Friday weren't added to.

The U.S. stock market continues to rise strongly, returning to a high consolidation range. The space for further upward extension is getting smaller. However, there is a large gap below.
The reduction of geopolitical conflict risks and the expectation of opening the strait contributed to this violent rebound in the U.S. stock market.

$BTC
The daily fluctuation of the pancake is not large, a range of consolidation at a high position has formed. After a quick surge last night, it touched 72700 before pulling back to 705 and reducing holdings.
There is a slight rebound during the day, but the stagnation is obvious. Therefore, do not chase high positions at the current location.

After reducing positions in high shorts, it is sufficient to hold.
In the evening, pay attention to the pullback test around the 695 support area. After stabilizing, lightly enter long positions.

The understanding king finally admits defeat; early on the 8th, a two-week ceasefire begins. After hours in the US stock market and crypto futures spot along with gold are all lifted.
Crude oil has directly crashed in place.
$BTC
67800's long position directly with a rocket jump shot.
Current position is near 720; it is not recommended to chase long positions. Shorting is a left-side entry, so for shorting on a pullback, it’s recommended to take profits quickly.

A larger level has approached near the channel midline, serving as a position for bulls to reduce positions and take profits. The risk-to-reward ratio for chasing long positions is very small.
The short-term rebound hasn’t ended; the strategy is to buy on dips.
Upper pressure: 72777/73650/74760

Lower support: 70500/69500/68400