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📊 Weekly Market Summary｜July 13–17

This week, US inflation data cooled, but a sharp surge in crude oil reignited concerns about a possible return of inflation. Reactions across risk assets were not uniform.

🇺🇸 US Macroeconomics
CPI YoY 3.5% (prior 4.2%)
PPI MoM -0.3%
Retail Sales MoM +0.2%

🟡 Gold
Down about -2.6% for the week. Crude oil’s rise and uncertainty around interest-rate outlook weighed on it.

₿ Bitcoin
In a range of $61.8K to $64.9K. Direction remained limited, and sensitivity to macro conditions and risk appetite persisted.

🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Up about +15% for the week. The main drivers were tensions involving Iran and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

📉 US Stocks
S&P 500 -1.6%
Nasdaq -2.9%
Dow -0.9%
Selling pressure hit AI and semiconductor stocks.

🔎 Key Focus This Week
US data cooled, but the rise in crude oil brought inflation concerns back to the forefront. Next week, we’ll check for a breakout from the ranges in crude oil, US Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and BTC.

We won’t presume the market’s direction—just confirm it through scenarios. Not investment advice.

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【7/17(Fri)｜JST】Today’s key points are at 21:30: U.S. housing starts and building permits. Expectations are housing starts 1330K and permits 1400K. At 22:15, industrial production; at 23:00, University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Also, at 16:00 EUR CPI final; at 13:30 JPY capacity utilization. We’ll check the expectation gap → initial move → retracement → continuation before deciding on direction. This is not investment advice.

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【7/16(Thu)｜JST】Today’s focus is the 21:30 USD Retail Sales. Forecast: 0.3%, ex-automobile -0.1%, Philly Fed 15. 17:00 EUR Trade Balance/CPI final. 23:00 NAHB. 23:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventories as well. Check the forecast-to-initial move-to-retrace-to-continuity, then decide direction without committing to a fixed bias. Not investment advice.

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【7/14(Tue)｜JST】Our top focus is 21:30 USD CPI (forecast: CPI m/m -0.1%, Core m/m 0.25%, CPI y/y 3.8%). Also at 18:00 EUR ZEW and 23:00 testimony by Fed Chair Warsh. Strong/sticky → scenario where rates and USD come in higher; weak → the opposite scenario. We’ll check the initial move and the subsequent rebound—no guesswork. Not investment advice.

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Today’s Economic Calendar (JST)

Today begins right after the release of the FOMC minutes, and tonight we’re watching USD employment and housing-related data, while EUR is focused on the ECB minutes.

Key Points
・03:00 USD FOMC minutes
・08:50 JPY M2 money stock
・15:00 EUR Germany balance of trade
・20:30 EUR ECB minutes
・21:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 218K–220K / prior 215K)
・22:00 USD Williams remarks
・23:00 USD Existing home sales

How to Read It
The FOMC minutes and ECB minutes help you confirm the nuance of their policy stance, inflation outlook, and forward guidance on interest rates.

For the 21:30 Initial Jobless Claims, pay attention to the reaction in USD, U.S. yields, and XAUUSD. Don’t jump to conclusions based solely on whether the numbers are strong or weak—what you’ll want to see is the first move right after the release, followed by the pullback and whether the effect proves consistent.

This is not investment advice. Don’t overextend position sizing; prioritize scenario confirmation.

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Today's Economic Calendar (JST)

Today is relatively light during the day, but from evening to late night, be careful with USD-related items.

Key Points
・16:00 EUR Trade Balance
・19:00 EUR CPI-related
・23:00 USD Wholesale Inventories
・23:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories
・03:00 the next day USD FOMC Minutes

How to Read It
In the FOMC minutes, check the nuances of the interest rate outlook, inflation perception, and the policy stance. Don’t commit to USD, US yields, or XAUUSD based only on initial reactions—look at the pullback after the release and whether the move is sustained.

Crude oil inventories can affect not only crude oil prices, but also inflation expectations and US yields.

Not investment advice. Keep position sizes reasonable and prioritize scenario confirmation.

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【Today’s Economic Calendar｜7/7 (Tue) JST】

Today has fewer major indicators. We will check the USD trade balance and EUR indicators. For GBP, there are fewer key materials.

13:30 EUR CPI-related
14:00 JPY Business Conditions Index
14:00 EUR Industrial Production
15:45 EUR Trade Balance
16:00 EUR Wholesale Prices
21:30 USD Trade Balance

How to read: When the material is thin, don’t chase the initial move too closely. For EUR, confirm the reaction after CPI, production, and trade. For USD, check the dollar reaction after the trade balance. For XAUUSD, we decide based on volume, US yields, and the rebound in the dollar.

Not investment advice.
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【Today’s Economic Calendar｜7/6 (Mon) JST】

Today’s focus is on EUR data and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing. There are fewer major catalysts for JPY.

16:00 EUR Retail Sales
17:30 GBP/EUR Construction PMI
18:00 EUR PPI & Retail Sales
19:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
22:45 USD S&P Global PMI (Final)
23:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing

How to read it: For EUR, check the economic “temperature” via Retail Sales, PPI, and the Unemployment Rate. For USD, what matters is the US yields and dollar reaction after ISM. For XAUUSD, don’t decide solely based on the initial move after 23:00—also check pullbacks, volume, and US yields.

Not investment advice.
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【Today's Economic Calendar｜Fri 7/3 JST】

Today, the US is closed, so be careful about reduced liquidity. Focus is mainly on PMI-related data for EUR/GBP.

15:45– EUR European PMI, Manufacturing, PPI
17:30 GBP PMI Composite / Services — final
18:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
US stock market: Closed due to Independence Day (observed)
02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count

How to look at it: There are few major US indicators today, and with the US closed, price movements may be thin. For EUR/GBP, watch the PMI 50 line; for XAUUSD, check how it reacts in terms of trading volume, US yields, and the US dollar. Don’t decide the direction based only on the first move.

Not investment advice.
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【7/1 Indicator Results Update｜20:43 JST】

・JPY BOJ Tankan: Manufacturing 22 / Non-manufacturing 37. Beat expectations and is supportive for the JPY.
・EUR CPI Flash: Headline 2.8% / Core 2.4%. Fell below expectations, slightly weighing on EUR yields.
・EUR Manufacturing PMI: Eurozone 51.4. Expansion is maintained, but momentum has slowed compared with the previous 51.6.
・USD: ADP employment at 21:15, ISM manufacturing at 23:00 to follow.

View: JPY is supportive, while EUR is capped somewhat due to easing inflation. For XAUUSD, after the upcoming ADP and ISM, I will prioritize checking reactions in US yields, USD, and volume. No commitment to a specific direction.

Not investment advice.
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【Economic Calendar for Tomorrow | 7/2 (Thu) JST】

18:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
21:30 USD NFP, Unemployment Rate & Wages
21:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
23:00 USD Manufacturing Orders & Durable Goods

What to watch is the US employment data/NFP. Liquidity can thin out around holidays, so don’t judge based only on the initial move right after the release. The stronger employment is, the more likely it can support USD yields. For XAUUSD, check the rebound, volume, and US yields.

This is not investment advice.
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【7/1 Indicator Results Check｜JST】

At this point, the main actual figures are still to come. Once the numbers are finalized, we will re-check the forecast difference.

08:50 JPY BOJ Tankan
18:00 EUR CPI Flash
21:15 USD ADP Employment
23:00 USD ISM Manufacturing

How to read: We don’t decide the direction in advance before the results come out. For XAUUSD, prioritize reactions in US interest rates, USD, and volume. After the release, we will confirm the actual vs. forecast difference and the bounce after the initial move.

Not investment advice.
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