This round of tariffs has been tightened again. In Trump’s second term, he pushed the average effective tariff rate from 2.5% to 27%, and the data from both the Wiki and the Tax Foundation line up. In theory, this is a bearish factor for U.S. equities, and on-chain U.S. stock derivatives should be down too. But today
$MVLL is up slightly by 1.115%, trading at 25.39, with funding at zero—neither side wants to make the first move.
My take: The market has already digested most of this tariff downside. Chasing a short here isn’t a great risk-reward.
$MVLL has $2.12 million in volume and 180,000 in open interest; the float isn’t that thick. Funding at zero means neither side is absorbing the trades as “carrying” positions. This kind of structure usually needs to wait for one direction to first break out with volume.
Counterview: A 27% tariff rate comes with a cost. The Tax Foundation estimates that long-term GDP will be cut by 0.4%, and this report will weigh on risk assets. If later Europe and Japan tariffs truly get implemented at 15%, the sell-pressure on on-chain U.S. equity derivatives could still increase.
Second-order effects: Price keeps consolidating above 25, and shorts may act urgently. Market makers, seeing tariff headlines, will raise hedging costs; once OI starts to decline, liquidity tends to withdraw first, and volatility gets amplified. Whoever can’t hold it first will be the one to blow up.
I’m watching the 25 level. If it holds above 25.39 with increased volume, I’ll try a long. If it breaks below 25, I’ll pull out immediately—I won’t catch the falling knife. Position size is 30%, stop-loss placed below 25, and if I’m wrong I’ll admit it.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #MVLL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?