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Markus Thielen questions Bitcoin at $1 million before 2030

A Bitcoin of $1 million before 2030 makes a portion of the market dream. However, behind this spectacular projection, a question emerges: does global liquidity really allow for such an increase to be absorbed? A fundamental analysis puts this scenario in perspective and confronts market ambitions with macroeconomic constraints. For investors, the debate also touches on leverage, market expectations, and where bitcoin can truly fit within institutional portfolios.

A prediction of a Bitcoin at $1,000,000 for 2030 is considered mathematically impossible by 10x Research.

Reaching this threshold would require a 16x multiplier and a market capitalization of $20 trillion.

Global liquidity and ongoing net inflows still remain insufficient to support such a valuation.

Doubting this scenario forces investors to reduce their exposure to leverage.

The impossible equation of a one-million-dollar bitcoin

This clarification came during an interview with Markus Thielen, founder and head of research at 10x Research. He explains why a $1,000,000 bitcoin for 2030 is mathematically impossible. He bases his assessment on a purely accounting-based demonstration, completely opposing projections frequently spread by industry figures such as Cathie Wood or Michael Saylor.

While the price is around $63,006, reaching the seven-figure threshold would require a multiplier close to 16x compared to current levels. Such progress would drive the circulating network’s market capitalization to around $20,000 trillion—that is, $20 trillion USD. For the analyst, the obstacle lies in the physical inability of the financial system to inject the net capital required to sustain this value.

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