#btcbaja
btcbaja
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Bearish
$BTC IS THE BIG GUY ABOUT TO DROP? On the 4H chart, it really looks like it wants to, at least in the short term. Here’s what I’m seeing
Signs it’s getting tired:
1. It touched the Bollinger ceiling: The upper BOLL(20,2) band is at $84,499.1, and the price touched $84,875.2, leaving a red candle with a wick right there. Every time it touches the upper band this steeply on the 4H chart, it corrects.
2. Weak candles: Take a look at the volume below. The huge green candle that took it to $84K had a volume of 27.9K BTC. The two red candles now trying to push it down have much lower volume (25.5K and falling). That’s not distribution yet; it’s a lack of new buyers up here.
3. It’s stretched too far from the moving averages: The price is at $84,152, but the MA(25) is at $82,396 and the MA(99) is at $82,844. That’s almost $1,800 apart. On the 4H chart, that gap always closes, either by moving sideways or through a quick drop.
4. *AVL at $84,542:* You’ve got it marked right there. It’s the yellow line acting as immediate resistance. It broke above it and then fell back below—that’s a classic liquidity trap.
*How far can it fall without breaking anything?*
If it’s just a healthy profit-taking move, the first levels are:
- *Support 1:* $83,625, which is your MA(7). If it loses that on the 4H chart, it goes to...
- *Support 2:* $82,585, the middle Bollinger Band, which lines up with the EMA(99) at $82,705. That’s the zone that needs to hold.
- *If it breaks through everything:* The SUPERTREND and SAR are at $81,997 and $82,437. That’s where all the longs’ stops are.
The overall context is still bullish; it’s up +1.67% today and +3.53% over 30 days, and it came from $80,622 on October 17. Nothing major has broken—it just went up very steeply.
This is how I see it: it looks like it wants to drop and catch its breath, yes. I wouldn’t buy long up here. If you want to short it, use a tight stop above $84,900, because if it breaks the 24-hour high on volume, it’ll go straight to $85,500.
Or
are you looking at it for a quick scalp short, or were you thinking of holding a short longer?#btcbaja #EarningsSeason
$BTC IS THE BIG GUY ABOUT TO DROP? On the 4H chart, it really looks like it wants to, at least in the short term. Here’s what I’m seeing
Signs it’s getting tired:
1. It touched the Bollinger ceiling: The upper BOLL(20,2) band is at $84,499.1, and the price touched $84,875.2, leaving a red candle with a wick right there. Every time it touches the upper band this steeply on the 4H chart, it corrects.
2. Weak candles: Take a look at the volume below. The huge green candle that took it to $84K had a volume of 27.9K BTC. The two red candles now trying to push it down have much lower volume (25.5K and falling). That’s not distribution yet; it’s a lack of new buyers up here.
3. It’s stretched too far from the moving averages: The price is at $84,152, but the MA(25) is at $82,396 and the MA(99) is at $82,844. That’s almost $1,800 apart. On the 4H chart, that gap always closes, either by moving sideways or through a quick drop.
4. *AVL at $84,542:* You’ve got it marked right there. It’s the yellow line acting as immediate resistance. It broke above it and then fell back below—that’s a classic liquidity trap.
*How far can it fall without breaking anything?*
If it’s just a healthy profit-taking move, the first levels are:
- *Support 1:* $83,625, which is your MA(7). If it loses that on the 4H chart, it goes to...
- *Support 2:* $82,585, the middle Bollinger Band, which lines up with the EMA(99) at $82,705. That’s the zone that needs to hold.
- *If it breaks through everything:* The SUPERTREND and SAR are at $81,997 and $82,437. That’s where all the longs’ stops are.
The overall context is still bullish; it’s up +1.67% today and +3.53% over 30 days, and it came from $80,622 on October 17. Nothing major has broken—it just went up very steeply.
This is how I see it: it looks like it wants to drop and catch its breath, yes. I wouldn’t buy long up here. If you want to short it, use a tight stop above $84,900, because if it breaks the 24-hour high on volume, it’ll go straight to $85,500.
Or
are you looking at it for a quick scalp short, or were you thinking of holding a short longer?#btcbaja #EarningsSeason
Signs it’s getting tired:
1. It touched the Bollinger ceiling: The upper BOLL(20,2) band is at $84,499.1, and the price touched $84,875.2, leaving a red candle with a wick right there. Every time it touches the upper band this steeply on the 4H chart, it corrects.
2. Weak candles: Take a look at the volume below. The huge green candle that took it to $84K had a volume of 27.9K BTC. The two red candles now trying to push it down have much lower volume (25.5K and falling). That’s not distribution yet; it’s a lack of new buyers up here.
3. It’s stretched too far from the moving averages: The price is at $84,152, but the MA(25) is at $82,396 and the MA(99) is at $82,844. That’s almost $1,800 apart. On the 4H chart, that gap always closes, either by moving sideways or through a quick drop.
4. *AVL at $84,542:* You’ve got it marked right there. It’s the yellow line acting as immediate resistance. It broke above it and then fell back below—that’s a classic liquidity trap.
*How far can it fall without breaking anything?*
If it’s just a healthy profit-taking move, the first levels are:
- *Support 1:* $83,625, which is your MA(7). If it loses that on the 4H chart, it goes to...
- *Support 2:* $82,585, the middle Bollinger Band, which lines up with the EMA(99) at $82,705. That’s the zone that needs to hold.
- *If it breaks through everything:* The SUPERTREND and SAR are at $81,997 and $82,437. That’s where all the longs’ stops are.
The overall context is still bullish; it’s up +1.67% today and +3.53% over 30 days, and it came from $80,622 on October 17. Nothing major has broken—it just went up very steeply.
This is how I see it: it looks like it wants to drop and catch its breath, yes. I wouldn’t buy long up here. If you want to short it, use a tight stop above $84,900, because if it breaks the 24-hour high on volume, it’ll go straight to $85,500.
Or
are you looking at it for a quick scalp short, or were you thinking of holding a short longer?#btcbaja #EarningsSeason
Orient all Uy:
Yo veo grandes ventas en 87 y 84 k despues de salir de los 60 k , hay mucha plata y buena liquidez en los 70 o 75 k . Es mi opinion,
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