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🇺🇸 S&P Futures: stable
📈 Treasury 10Y: 5.23%
🇪🇺 Stoxx 600: +0.6%
🛢️ Brent: US$ 105.08 | -0.2%
🥇 Gold: US$ 4,149 | +0.8%
1. INTEREST RATES AT 5.23%
The 10-year Treasury remains very high, but something important is starting to happen: large managers are returning to buy bonds.
The logic is simple: with rates above 5%, the investor already receives a very attractive return just by holding U.S. Treasuries. This could start to create a ceiling for yields.
2. OIL IS STILL A RISK

The strategic Strait of Hormuz was closed again amid the standoff between Iran and the United States, as the influential Iranian parliamentary speaker indicated that a conclusive peace agreement was still “far” away, even though talks made some headway
With mediators pressing on after high-level discussions in Pakistan failed to produce an accord, Tehran declared it would keep the vital maritime trade corridor closed until Washington lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that any attempt to pass through the strait without permission “will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted”.
The current two-week ceasefire will expire on Wednesday unless it is extended.
US ⁠President ⁠Donald Trump has no justification to ⁠deprive Iran of its nuclear ⁠rights, the Iranian Students’ News Agency quoted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ‌as saying on Sunday, as Washington and Tehran continue to face disagreements over nuclear ⁠issues
Iran’s “valiant navy” is “ready to inflict new bitter defeats on its enemies”, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Saturday.
Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh dismissed Trump’s claims over the uranium and sounded a note of caution with regard to future talks between the two countries
“There is now a certain sense of frustration and uncertainty when it comes to the road ahead. We know that Iranians are very much worried, not only about the shadow of the war, but also about the element of surprise, even during this ceasefire,” Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi reported from Tehran
Minister of Education Alireza Kazemi has said the government does not have plans to resume “in-person education” at the moment
The Iranian Ministry of Science announced that in the “third imposed war,” 180 members of the academic community were killed, including 18 female students and one female university professor
The Tasnim News Agency, citing the deputy director of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation, said the country’s airspace would be reopened, with flights from east to west established gradually
The aviation authority said Iran will resume international flights on Monday from Mashhad airport in the country’s northeast
Iran is replenishing its missile and drone launchers at a ⁠higher speed than before the war started, Majid Mousavi, the Revolutionary Guard’s Aerospace Force commander, said
⁠Iran’s ⁠armed forces turned back two tankers attempting ⁠to transit the Strait ⁠of Hormuz after issuing warnings, semi-official Tasnim ‌news agency reported
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, said in a televised address on Saturday night that there had been “progress” with Washington, “but there are many gaps and some fundamental points remain
discussion,” said Ghalibaf, one of Tehran’s negotiators in the talks aimed at ending the war launched by Israel and the US against Iran
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif returned to Pakistan on Saturday from his visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye in advance of an expected second round of US-Iran talks
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Cairo and Islamabad hoped to secure a final agreement “in the coming days”
⁠Turkey’s ⁠Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday ⁠that both Iran and the United ⁠States had the will to continue talks to end the ‌war, and that he remained “optimistic” that the two-week ceasefire would be extended
Trump accused Iran of getting “a little cute” with its recent moves and warned Tehran not to try to “blackmail” Washington by flip-flopping on the strait
“We have very good conversations going on,” the president told reporters at the White House, adding that Washington was “taking a tough stand
The US military said it forced 23 ships to turn around near the Strait of Hormuz since it imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports. In a post on X, the Central Command said US forces were still enforcing the blockade “against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas
The Israeli military said another soldier had been killed in combat in southern Lebanon, the second death announced in less than 12 hours
Israeli forces said they have established a so-called “yellow line” in southern Lebanon, similar to an Israeli military measure in the besieged Gaza Strip. Israel has also been accused of violating the terms of the ceasefire with Lebanon
More than 1,000 homes in Tel Aviv have been left uninhabitable by the recent war with Iran, the city’s mayor said on Saturday
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned Saturday’s attack that killed a French soldier serving with the UN mission UNIFIL in Lebanon
Naim Kassem, head of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, in a statement read on the group’s Al-Manar TV, said a paper published by the US Department of State, which he described as the text of a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, “means nothing at the practical level, but it is an insult to our country
Everyone knows that the government of Lebanon has not met or approved this statement,” he said
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UThe ban applies to fintechs and payment firms, closing the back-end payment rail for cross-border flows, but individual crypto investors can still buy and hold assets.
Payments between an eFX provider and its foreign counterparty must move through a foreign exchange transaction or a non-resident real-denominated account in Brazil, with cryptocurrencies barred as an option.
A remittance firm cannot take reais from a customer, convert the funds into USDT, USDC or bitcoin and settle the payment abroad on a blockchain
The rule does not ban crypto trading. Investors can still buy, sell, hold and transfer cryptocurrency through authorized virtual asset service providers under Resolution BCB No. 521, which took effect February 2. Resolution 561 closes the back-end payment rail used by regulated eFX firms.
The change targets companies like Wise, Nomad and Braza Bank that had built stablecoin settlement into cross-border flows. Nomad, for example, uses Ripple's network to move funds between Brazil and the U.S. and settle in stablecoins, while Braza Bank issued a real-backed stablecoin on the XRP Ledger.
Brazil's crypto market is moving $6 billion to $8 billion a month, with stablecoins accounting for roughly 90% of volume, per Receita Federal data. The country ranked fifth in global crypto adoption in 2025, up from tenth a year earlier. About 25 million Brazilians hold or transact in crypto.
The resolution also restricts eFX to BCB-authorized institutions: banks, Caixa Econômica Federal, securities and FX brokers, and payment institutions acting as e-money issuers or acquirers. Firms without authorization can keep operating but must apply by May 31, 2027. They must use segregated accounts for client funds and file detailed monthly reports.
Resolution 561 expands eFX in one direction. Providers can now handle transfers tied to financial and capital market investments in Brazil or abroad, capped at $10,000 per transaction. The same limit applies to digital payment solutions not integrated with e-commerce platforms.
The rule is the second front in a broader regulatory push. In March, industry associations representing more than 850 companies pushed back against extending Brazil's IOF financial transaction tax to stablecoin operations.
Brazil's regulator is drawing a line for crypto to exist in the market, but not as eFX settlement infrastructure.
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The boss of a global haulage firm has said the two-year lane closures on part of one of the south coast's busiest roads has cost the firm £2.4m.
National Highways' work to resurface the M27 between junction five at Eastleigh and junction seven at Hedge End first began in 2024. It fully reopened from 06:00 BST, although a temporary 50mph limit is expected to be in place until the end of June.
Speaking ahead of its reopening, Bob Terris, from the Southampton-based haulage firm Meachers Global Logistics, said he was "relieved" the "critical" route would be back up and running.
National Highways praised motorists' "patience" and said the works would create "smoother, quieter and safer" journeys.
Terris estimated the disruption had cost the company, which runs 60 lorries in the Southampton area each day, £2.4m.
We know exactly what it costs for the trucks, we know how much time we're losing - it's not rocket science, it's a lot of money," he said.We know exactly what it costs for the trucks, we know how much time we're losing - it's not rocket science, it's a lot of money," he said.
Terris, who began working at Meachers in 1962 and went on to own the company, welcomed the resurfacing project but bemoaned the economic impact.
It's reduced the productivity of the vehicles, so our costs are higher, and our revenues lower because we don't get paid if they're not moving," he explained.
It's not just the trucks, it's the admin, the telecom, the systems and everything [you have to do] to accommodate all this.
It's an absolutely huge thing, but we're only one company, just multiply this across the whole region and see how much it's costing."
Professional magician Darren Snelgar said the traffic caused by the roadworks had been a problem as he has been travelling to gigs
It's been a bit of a nightmare, with the traffic building up every night around about three, half-past three, so it's been a right pain," he said.
The two-year £83m project to upgrade the motorway, which runs between the New Forest and Portsmouth, first began in March 2024.
It came as part of a National Highways scheme to replace routes built using concrete with asphalt to reduce noise and ensure the road lasted longer.
It has also involved work to improve drainage and strengthen the central reservation.
Richard Scrase, programme delivery manager at National Highways, said they were "grateful" for motorists' "continued patience".
These improvements have created a smoother, quieter and safer journey for drivers, while helping the road last for generations to come," he added.
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