smmeth

$ETH | SatoshiMacro's Ethereum cycle model reads 43.5 today, Neutral, right after its validator and staking tier went fully live as the sixth input. On the desk the first question on a new series is whether it tracks the cycle, not adoption. 36.2 percent of ETH supply is staked for an implied 2.79 percent yield, 5,200 validators queue to enter, and that staking tier scores just 14.9, lowest of the six, while rotation (ETH/BTC ratio, dominance, altcoin season) reads 63.5. My read: the gap between tiers matters more than one number. Staking signals only carry meaning from the beacon chain's 2020-12-01 genesis onward. The model reports cycle position, not a price forecast. Refreshed twice daily, Sydney time.
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/satoshimacro-model-eth/?utm_source=binance_square&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=autopilot_short-1
#SatoshiMacro #EthereumCycle #SMMETH #Ethereum

$ETH | Introducing SMM-ETH: A Quantitative Ethereum Cycle Model

A quantitative Ethereum cycle confluence model. 23 signals across 6 weighted tiers (5 of 6 live; Tier 2 Validator/Staking pending), distilled into a single 0-100 cycle position score.

The 6 tiers:
- Cycle Timing & Mass Psychology (30%): post-merge ETH cycle position, ETH-fit power law deviation
- Valuation (25%): ETH-specific power-law regression, Mayer Multiple, NUPL
- Sentiment (20%): Fear & Greed, broad-crypto risk-on proxies, Coinbase premium
- Rotation (10%): ETH/BTC ratio percentile, BTC dominance inverse, altseason index
- Miner / Validator (10%): PENDING - Beaconcha.in + Etherscan staking API integration in progress
- Macro (5%): DXY, M2, yield curve, VIX (shared with SMM-BTC)

ETH-specific differentiator: the Rotation tier is the model anchor. ETH/BTC ratio percentile captures the late-ETH-cycle dynamic that pure BTC models miss.

Lookahead-free expanding-window percentile rank. USD/AUD currency toggle. Calibrated 4-of-5 in-zone across ETH cycle inflections from 2018 through 2022.

Built by a former institutional trader. Companion to SMM-BTC.

100% free. No paywall, no email gate.

Full methodology + interactive gauge:
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/satoshimacro-model-eth/

#Ethereum #ETH #CycleAnalysis #SatoshiMacro #SMMETH