SOL is 7% away from $100, and a public companyโs $200 million buyback hinges on that level
$SOL Current price: $107.50; it touched a 24-hour low of $101.69.
Nasdaq-listed SOL treasury company SkyAI just announced that it sold about 1 million SOL, raising around $107 million. It still holds about 1 million SOL, and the company says it may continue selling.
๐ A few numbers
ยท It held more than 2 million SOL in mid-September, then sold half in a month
ยท Lookonchain estimates the average purchase price was about $194, leaving it with an unrealized loss of more than $160 million at current prices
ยท The proceeds from the sale will fund a buyback: shares and warrants will be repurchased for $3 each, up to 95% of the total, with a cap of about $201 million
๐ง Why does $100 matter?
The buyback offer lists several conditions. One is stated plainly: SOL must close above $100 throughout the offer period.
The offer is expected to launch around October 15 and remain open for 10 business days. If SOL closes below $100 during those two-plus weeks, the buyback may not go ahead under the stated terms (the company reserves the right to waive conditions). Itโs unclear what would happen to the remaining 1 million SOL.
๐ฌ My take
1๏ธโฃ Treasury companies were once buyers of SOL; now theyโre sellers. At current prices, 1 million SOL is worth about $100 millionโnot much compared with SOLโs daily trading volume, so the impact on sentiment may be greater than the impact on the order book.
2๏ธโฃ Bought at $194 and selling around $107, theyโre willing to take a loss to fund a buybackโand the reason is the share price. A rough calculation based on the announcement suggests SKYAโs market cap was previously less than half the value of the SOL it held. Selling coins to fund a buyback effectively recovers that discount.
3๏ธโฃ Will other treasury companies follow suit? The largest, Forward Industries, holds about 8.5 million SOL, and so far thereโs no news of it selling any.
๐ For smaller investors
ยท The $100 level now has two meanings: a round-number threshold and a buyback condition. Volatility may increase as the price approaches it, so avoid using heavy leverage around this level.
ยท Seeing an address transfer coins to an exchange on-chain doesnโt mean theyโve already been sold. Donโt rush to follow.
Do you think SOL can hold above $100 this time?
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
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