Of the $6.43 billion stolen, $3.33 billion is now officially beyond the reach of freezes—and that’s a verified figure, not just a claim.
The facts: Elliptic (Oct. 30, update at 08:00 UTC) verified that $2.84 billion in stolen funds has been frozen on-chain—44% of the total $6.43 billion, almost all of it in USDT and USDC, close to the roughly $3 billion claim. The remaining roughly $3.33 billion is now controlled by the perpetrators across about 43 addresses and cannot be frozen by issuers: 511,861 ETH, 18,270 BTC, 233 million XRP, and 670 million TRX. Before the freezes took effect, the perpetrators managed to swap about $786 million in stablecoins for ETH and TRX—some at a 12–26% loss against market prices, prioritizing speed over value. Around $445 million in XRP, SOL, and NEAR has not moved at all.
My take: this divides the case into two phases. The freezing phase is effectively over for stablecoins; the next phase is a long laundering process, like after Bybit—and that’s where those 511,000 ETH become a lurking source of potential selling pressure. On attribution, I’m going with Elliptic’s own caveat: address overlap with the Bitget case is only around $39,000, and there has been no official government confirmation—so this is an analyst’s assessment, not a verdict.
What I’m watching: whether those 18,270 BTC start moving from their 19 wallets, whether the perpetrators’ ETH flows into mixers or OTC desks, and the promised official post-mortem.
BTC is currently around $77,500, and ETH around $2,236. What do you think—will this $3.33 billion that can’t be frozen eventually be recovered through seizures, or disappear into laundering channels?
This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.
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