pemiluas

The US midterm elections are tomorrow—and there’s a pattern that has some traders on edge while others think it’s nothing. Which side are you on?

View A — the “midterm curse” is real: analyst Ali Martinez noted that BTC fell sharply after the last 4 midterm elections: −72% (2010), −65% (2014), −52% (2018), −27% (2022). The pattern has weakened with each cycle, but it has never failed. His suggested plan: watch for post-election weakness, then keep an eye on the $73,000 area—around the cost basis for short-term holders that previously held off major corrections.

View B — already priced in: analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the midterms are priced in and will be a non-event, with BTC in the final stages of its correction and potentially making one last sweep of the lows before a year-end rally. Supporting argument: this year’s low was already set on July 1 at around $57,850—125 days before the vote—and each past drop had its own cause: Mt. Gox (2014), the Bitcoin Cash split (2018), FTX (2022). Calendar correlation isn’t a mechanism.

I’m leaning toward B, but with a condition—this view is invalidated if BTC closes a daily candle below $77,831 (the 100-day EMA) after the election and ETF outflows pick up again; that would shift me to A. BTC is currently around $78,146, still between that support and the $80,307 resistance.

Reply in the comments: A or B—and your strongest reason.

This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.

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