Everyone, let’s talk about “reviewing the decision-making process separately from a single outcome,” using this data point from
$NOM as a reference.
Binance Spot, 10/31 11:05–12:05 (Beijing time): the price fell 1.06% over the hour, with a trading volume of 80.8K USDT, 3.67 times that of the previous hour. The closing price for the period was 0.001584 USDT.
A good one-off outcome doesn’t mean every step in the reasoning process was well-founded; a poor outcome doesn’t automatically mean all the observations were worthless. Markets are uncertain, so evaluating the process means going back to the information, assumptions, and verification criteria available at the time. Recording the outcome and the process separately helps clarify whether the reasoning needs revision or whether the expectations were simply too certain to begin with.
When reviewing, try making two columns: what the judgment was based on at the time, and what actually happened afterward. Fill out both columns before drawing a conclusion.
#NOM #CryptoChat