labourcrisis

💼 NFP — the economy just lost jobs
The most important data point of the week — and one of the most important of the year. Nonfarm payrolls fell by -23,000 in July — the first negative headline print of the cycle — against a consensus forecast of +83,000. A massive shock. 😱
But as always — read the details 👇
Government shed -53,000 jobs, mostly local education. Private payrolls actually added +30,000. The headline is distorted by public sector cuts. But the bigger alarm — temporary layoffs jumped 153,000 to 921,000. That is the leading edge of permanent job loss. When temp layoffs surge like this, permanent layoffs historically follow within 2-3 months. 🧠
May and June were also revised down a combined -103,000. The labor market has been weaker than reported for months. Wages rose just 3.2% YoY — the slowest since May 2021. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% — but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest since 2021. People are leaving the workforce, not finding jobs. 😬
🚨 NFP July: -23,000 — first negative print of the cycle
📊 Forecast was +83,000 — massive miss
⚠️ Government: -53K · Private: +30K — headline distorted
🚨 Temp layoffs: +153,000 to 921,000 — leading edge of job losses
📉 May + June revised: -103,000 combined
📉 Wages: 3.2% YoY — slowest since May 2021
📉 Participation rate: 61.4% — lowest since 2021

#NFP #dyor #LabourCrisis #Inflation

1 May happy labour day 💙
Hard work may not bring everything,
but it always protects your dignity.
Stay humble. Stay honest. Stay real. 💛
#LabourCrisis #laborday