JPMorgan included
$BTC in its long-term outlook for the first time, and the projected return came in at the top 😅
Its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released on October 19, are in their 31st edition and cover more than 200 asset classes.
Annualized compound return for
$BTC over the next 10 to 15 years: 10%
U.S. large-cap stocks: 7.5%
U.S. REITs: 8.2%
Gold: just 5.5%
60/40 portfolio: 7%
At 10% compound growth, that works out to about 2.6x in 10 years and 4.2x in 15 years.
Sounds pretty enticing, right?
But the second half is the key.
JPMorgan puts the volatility of
$BTC at 55%.
U.S. stocks are around 18%, and gold is 17.2%—roughly a third as much.
The arithmetic average return is 20.9%, but the compound return falls to just 10%; the difference is all eaten up by drawdowns.
The subtler point is this:
JPMorgan did not include
$BTC in its main allocation matrix.
It listed it separately in a small table comparing its correlations with 12 asset classes.
Its correlation with U.S. stocks is 0.33, and with gold, 0.10.
The message is pretty clear: correlations are unstable, so it cannot yet be treated as a diversification tool; it looks more like a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.
So I see two sides to this.
On the surface, it got a full endorsement: it made it into the official long-term assumptions for the first time, and its projected return ranked highest.
But there’s little substance behind that: it wasn’t included in the sample portfolios, and clients weren’t told how much to allocate to it.
In the short term, the price will still be driven by ETF flows and the tug-of-war around the 81,500 cost basis.
The long-term narrative now has an official table from a major institution backing it.
Don’t conflate the two.
What do you think—is 55% volatility for a 10% return a worthwhile trade-off in a long-term portfolio?
$BTC #比特币 #JPMorgan #LongTermAllocation
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.