institusional

U.S. Bitcoin ETFs just posted their largest daily outflow since June — $643 million in a single session, wiping out all the purchases from the previous four days.

The facts: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $643.2 million on Friday, Oct. 30 (Farside Investors data, reported Oct. 31–Nov. 1). BlackRock IBIT led with -$233.7 million, followed by Fidelity FBTC at -$201 million and ARK ARKB at -$129.5 million — together accounting for around 87.7% of the total. None of the 12 products recorded inflows that day. Yet the previous four sessions (Oct. 26–29) saw inflows of $440.8 million, flipping the week to -$202.4 million and closing October at -$515.9 million.

My take: this wasn’t a uniform exodus — IBIT itself is still up +$932.1 million for October. What happened looks more like simultaneous redemptions during a rough session: the day after the Binance hack disclosure, though the data doesn’t prove a direct link between the two. BTC is around $77,950 this afternoon, after dipping below $78,000 earlier this morning.

What I’m watching: flows on Monday, Nov. 2 — whether redemptions continue or reverse — and whether BTC holds above the Oct. 31 low of around $77,061.

What do you think: is Friday’s outflow the start of continued redemptions, or just a one-day reaction after the shock?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#ETFBitcoin #Institusional $BTC

Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin target to $1.6 million — up from $1.3 million — just as BTC slipped below $80,000.

The facts: Bitwise’s “2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” report, released on Oct. 28, 2026, projects BTC will grow 34.3% annually through 2036, with average volatility of 27.8% (down from 32.9% last year) and a 0.43 correlation with U.S. stocks. The interesting part: the increase isn’t due to more aggressive market-share assumptions — Bitwise still assumes BTC captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional assets — but rather to its larger estimate of the market itself: the 2036 store-of-value market is projected at $110 trillion (up from $91 trillion). Institutions managing ~$147 trillion in assets are expected to allocate 1–5% to BTC, equivalent to $1.5–7.4 trillion in demand, versus just ~$14 billion in new supply per year. Their scenarios range from $130,686 to $3.67 million, with the biggest risks being quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversals.

My take: the methodology is honest — the target is rising because the market is growing, not because of forced assumptions. But a decade-long thesis doesn’t erase short-term reality: BTC is now around $79,800, still below the $84,000–$85,000 band highlighted by Glassnode, with key support at $78,000 and GDP + Core PCE data coming out tonight that could move the market.

What I’m watching next: whether $78,000 holds through tonight’s data, and whether ETF flows turn positive again after two days of roughly $286 million in inflows.

What do you think: is this $1.6 million target a reasonable projection or just asset-manager marketing?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Bitcoin #Institusional $BTC