$EVA’s 4-hour RSI smashed to 18.6. Extremely oversold. I’ve seen too many times in this kind of spot.
Last month, this coin surged from 0.70 to 3.85, a fivefold move. Then it crashed to 0.30, rebounded to 1.28, and now it has fallen back to 0.79. The roller coaster ride is over.
Current price: 0.7913. Down 8.38% in the past 24 hours. Trading volume: 20.87M U, clearly shrinking.
Twelve consecutive 4-hour candles in a row are down. EMA9 is at 0.832, EMA21 at 0.898, and EMA50 at 0.965. Bearish alignment across the board; price is far below the moving averages. MACD is below the zero line; the histogram is -0.0112. Momentum is still there, but the bars are shortening.
Key levels.
Support around 0.78, and the previous low at 0.758. If 0.75 breaks, that would be a new low—but that level was probed as a bottom on July 14, so it has some support significance.
Resistance above: 0.87 is the recent 4-hour high zone. 0.90 is the psychological level. 1.06 is the EMA21 level on the daily chart.
On the daily timeframe, from 1.28 down to here, it has already dropped 38%. RSI is 43—still not at an extreme value—but the 4-hour has already been hammered to 18.6. This kind of divergence isn’t the first time I’ve seen it.
Funding rate is 0.0050%. Very low. This suggests there aren’t many people shorting—so it’s not that kind of crowded one-way行情. Volume is drying up; the last few 4h candles’ volume is only 37% of the average volume. Sellers can’t push anymore.
These extremely oversold plays don’t necessarily reverse immediately. But there’s not much downside left either. A move below 0.75 would be meaningful.
I’m bullish—not calling for a bottom buy. It’s just that at this position, the odds are there.
Nini’s plan:
Current price: 0.7913
Bullish
Conditions: A 4-hour close back above 0.80 to confirm the selling pause (stop falling)
Entry range: 0.79 - 0.81
Stop loss: 0.75 (below the previous low)
Targets: 0.87 / 0.95 / 1.06
Keep position sizing within 30%. Don’t enter if it’s below 0.80.
This kind of extreme RSI rebound is a high-probability event. But how high it rebounds depends on volume—if volume doesn’t pick up, it’s just a dead cat bounce. Only when volume rises is it a true reversal.
Wait for signals. Don’t chase.
#EVA #超卖反弹 #合约交易