About 13 hours ago, there were 3 contracts tied to the morning “high-level distribution — bearish observation”. Currently, 2 have already cashed out and weakened, 1 is still in a tug-of-war, and a one-sided bearish move has not yet formed.
Initial observation recap: The positions are dispersing.
QNT: Cashing out; the morning bearish move has already played out.
After the initial release, price dropped 18.51%, while open interest fell 9.06% at the same time, indicating that the high-level support/absorption has clearly thinned.
Current aggressive buy volume ratio has risen to 1.04. Still, keep an eye tonight on the strength of any pullback rebound, but it has not yet reversed the overall weakness.
COW: Tug-of-war; the morning bearish direction has not yet formed one-sided downside confirmation.
Price is only down 1.26%, while the aggressive buy volume ratio has risen to 1.11, suggesting there is still support underneath and that confirmation of the original direction is insufficient.
Open interest decreased by 9.46% and trading volume fell by 74.18%, which looks more like a renewed struggle after the initial hype faded.
ORCA: Cashing out; the morning bearish direction has received shared validation from both price and the order book.
After the initial release, price dropped 4.96%, and open interest fell 14.46%, suggesting that capital withdrawal is faster than the price decline.
The aggressive buy volume ratio fell from 1.21 to 0.98; the buy-side advantage has faded, and the pullback structure is still ongoing.
Next, jointly monitor whether price can continue to weaken, and whether the aggressive buy volume remains lackluster when open interest is falling—this will further confirm the pullback.
If COW increases volume again and aggressive buying continues to strengthen, or if QNT and ORCA recover their losses as open interest rises, then the high-level distribution logic will need to be reconsidered.
#QNT #COW #ORCA #Contract tracking
This content was generated with assistance from Claude Fable 5 and is for information only; please verify it yourself.