bondmarkets

A 20% decline in bond issuance in the Eurozone does not necessarily mean what traders think. Despite total issuance falling in the third quarter to €323 billion, the net figures tell a completely different story.

​This contradiction between declining totals and rising net issuance by 5% suggests that governments are managing their liquidity with extreme caution right now. Markets often misread this gap and expect opposite moves in monetary policy. Remember that net liquidity is what drives the decisions of big players in $EUR, not broad headlines.

​During periods of market volatility, I’ve noticed that ignoring net flows versus total issuance is the biggest mistake beginners make when analyzing macro.

​How will this funding gap affect risk appetite in financial markets over the coming months?

​#Eurozone #BondMarkets #MacroEconomics #Trading #Finance

The "failed" 30-year auction everyone's panicking about? History says it's a setup, not a warning. 📉
Last week the US sold $25B in 30-year bonds at 5.216% — highest since 2001. Cue the usual chorus: debt's unsustainable, nobody's buying, yields going vertical.
Let's look past the headlines.
Bid-to-cover: 2.39 vs 2.43 average — softer, not broken. Foreign buyers: 66.8% vs 67% norm — basically unchanged. The only genuine dip was domestic demand (21.6% vs 22.5%), so dealers absorbed 11.6% instead of 10.6%. A soft auction — not a buyers' strike.
Now the pattern that actually matters 👇
Every time bond fear peaks, it tends to mark the bottom, not the beginning:
2011: S&P downgrades the US, everyone expects higher long rates → yields fell.Nov 2023: "worst auction in years" → long end rallied two days later.1994: the Great Bond Massacre, 10s hit 8%, ~$1T lost, Orange County bankrupt → back under 6% by end-1995.
Max pain kept being the top.
Why? The yield curve prices expectations for the economy — not the size of the debt or the volume of the headlines. And right now the labor market is cracking, inflation looks contained, and rate-cut expectations have shifted from three hikes to just one this year. That's textbook slowing-economy territory — where long duration wins. 🎯
Above 5% on the 30-year, you're locking in a real yield unseen in 15 years (that bond paid 2.5% a decade ago). If the Fed pivots, the long end performs. If inflation reheats, you sit on a 5%+ coupon and wait.
So here's the question: if yields are near a peak and start heading down, what happens to equities and crypto during that credit-market repricing?
#TreasuriesRising #Macro #BondMarkets #CryptoMacro #FederalReserve

U.S. Treasury yields rise on Monday, April 20, following a weekend of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

🔹 The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.266%, up more than one basis point.
🔹 The 2-year Treasury yield climbed more than two basis points to 3.733%, while the 30-year yield edged up less than one basis point to 4.893%.

#TreasuryYields #USEconomyEra #GeopoliticalRisk #IranTensions #BondMarkets