BTC Active Supply in Loss Gains Attention | 45% and 54% Use Different Metrics | I’ll Manage Risk Before Considering a Rebound
My stance is defensive. Binance Square is discussing the claim that “the share of active BTC supply in profit has fallen below 45%.” That figure is worth watching, but it should not be presented as meaning that only 45% of all BTC is in profit. The Binance News post explicitly says that coins unmoved for more than ten years were excluded from the calculation. I also checked Glassnode’s public “Percent of Bitcoin Supply in Profit” page, which shows approximately 54.277% based on a broader definition of supply. The two figures cover different sets of coins, so the difference alone is not enough to say which one is wrong, nor should 45% be described as a confirmed on-chain figure for all BTC. The original report did not provide an active-supply data series that I could independently verify, so I treat 45% as that report’s estimate, not as a precise trading signal.
Why does this matter for BTC? A falling share of supply in profit means more participants have a cost basis above the current price, which could lead to selling pressure from holders looking to break even during a rebound. At the same time, a concentration of unrealized losses may draw contrarian investors’ attention to the potential for mean reversion. But the indicator cannot tell us when selling pressure will end, and whether coins that have been unmoved for ten years are included can significantly change the denominator. Glassnode defines the share of total supply in profit by comparing the price of each Bitcoin UTXO when it was created with the current price. It measures unrealized profit and loss; it is not exchange deposits or a prediction of how much BTC will inevitably be sold. Calling a bottom based on a single threshold risks mistaking a statistical description for an entry trigger.
The market reaction is more immediate than the headline. Binance’s public BTC/USDT 24-hour market data shows a latest price of around $65,114, down approximately 4.8% over 24 hours, with an intraday low near $65,067. That is another step down from the roughly $66,662 I recorded last time. Price data and on-chain indicators reflect different points in time, so we cannot conclude that this drop was caused entirely by this data point. My near-term areas to watch are $65,000 and the intraday-low zone. If prices remain below them, my short-term stabilization thesis is invalidated. To the upside, I’ll look first at $66,000, then $66,800. Only if price reclaims and holds above that area would it make sense to turn the idea of “a large share of supply in loss” into a rebound plan.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out for now and consider only a small spot long after confirmation—not try to catch a sharp drop. If price reclaims and holds above $66,000, then retests and holds that level, I would use no more than 2% of my total capital to test an entry. The first target would be $66,800, where I’d take half off; I’d hold the rest for $68,000. I’d set the initial stop below $64,900, with predefined risk on the trade capped at 0.4% of my account. If price falls back below $65,000 after entry, or if the rebound lacks sustained volume and reverses after a brief rise, I’d close the remaining position. If price breaks below $65,000 first, I’d cancel the entry plan and reassess after a new low. If no trigger occurs, I’ll stay in cash; a plan is not a trade.
Sources: Binance Square trending topics and the original Binance News post, Glassnode’s public indicator definition, and Binance’s public BTC/USDT market data. #BitcoinActiveSupplyInProfitDropsBelow45% #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.