btcmonthlyupdate

The monthly candle for Bitcoin has official closed, and it left behind some massive technical clues on the higher timeframe chart.
🔍 The Technical Setup
With the new candle open, we have established a prominent Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Liquidity Imbalance situated directly above the current price level. In ICT / Price Action terms, market efficiency dictates that price loves to seek out these unconsumed imbalance zones to balance the book before making its next macro expansion.
Because of this, my base case scenario is for Bitcoin to seek higher prices initially and trade directly up into this monthly FVG zone.
🎯 Two Playbooks for the Trade
Once price reaches this target overhead imbalance zone, I’ll be strictly waiting for the market to declare its intention rather than guessing ahead of time. Here is the exact plan:
🔴 Scenario 1: The Bearish Rejection (Short Setup)
The Trigger: Price sweeps/taps into the monthly FVG, followed by a clean, swift rejection (e.g., lower timeframe Market Structure Shift, heavy selling pressure, or a sweeping wick).
The Plan: I will actively look for short positions, targeting lower liquidity pools on the higher timeframe.
🟢 Scenario 2: Acceptance & Breakout (Long Setup)
The Trigger: Price pushes into the FVG without immediate selling pressure, consolidating above or within the zone and accepting those higher price levels (turning resistance into support).
The Plan: I will pivot to a bullish stance and hunt for long opportunities to join the continuation move higher.
Summary: Higher timeframe zones require lower timeframe patience. I’m letting price come to the key level first before taking any bias as gospel. Reaction over prediction. 🧠📉📈
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