601398

📌 Why did the 6-week 4000-point defense battle shrink into an annual moving average defense battle? What do you rely on to hold the annual moving average?

🍖 Chopper says:
This article is essentially about the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH). What many people were worried about before—4000 points—has now fallen to the vicinity of the annual moving average (roughly around 3000). As retail investors, this directly affects the level of unrealized losses in our accounts.

The logic is simple: if the index can’t even defend the annual moving average, many fund-heavy holdings and sector/industry ETFs may continue to drift lower. For example, heavyweight stocks like China Merchants Bank (600036) have recently looked rather weak. However, viewed from another angle, many people are already lying flat (in terms of investment posture) now. That could mean there’s an opportunity to build positions gradually in broad-market indices’ ranges (such as the CSI 300 ETF), so there’s no need to be overly pessimistic.

Risk warning: The “defense of the annual moving average” is often a grind—don’t rush to go all-in and bottom-fish. If it breaks down further, there may still be about 10% downside room. Compare within the banking sector: China Merchants Bank is currently down more than Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398). The reason is that the former is more influenced by foreign investors and institutional sentiment, while the latter is more defensive.

#000001 #600036 #601398 #A股