TheSniperTrader

It’s been a while since my last post. I have been developing a complex trading strategy that relies on an advanced mathematical model and probability calculations. It has already taken me over a month, and it is still in the backtesting phase.
Unfortunately, I can’t explain every detail just yet, as I cannot guarantee which parts are completely accurate. However, I will share the current results and provide a general overview of how it works.
This strategy is well-suited for swing trading, even on the smallest timeframes, and has shown a relatively high win rate.
Let’s dive into it.
Binary comes from 0 and 1, which can represent short and long positions, respectively. The basic idea of this strategy is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). Imagine flipping a coin:
If it lands on heads, you go short.If it lands on tails, you go long.
This introduces randomness into the entry decision, and even when you are in the wrong position with the market direction, there is a high chance that you are still going to win. Some of you may have heard about this, it's even on Youtube, you should check that out "how i make money trading, even when i'm wrong", but that's just the basic idea.

The creator mentioned clearly in the title that it's profitable trading strategy, then why would i need to develop this strategy? This is just my personal thought, take it with a grain of salt. It introduced bias, confusion, and inconsistency, because there is no way to backtest the strategy without spesific rules or threshold, even if we define the rules in approximation, the result would still far different in real time. This is because when to flip the coin, when exactly to stop (take profit), when exactly to add size are all based on feeling, and there is no way to remove bias (subjective expectations) completely when feeling is involved in trading. Therefore, emotion (fear and greed) would eventually control this strategy.

Luckily, I had read several novel research papers, as I am also currently pursuing a master's degree, before I came across the video. So, I combined the "random DCA" strategy I mentioned earlier with new insights I gained from these papers. This involved defining entry and exit rules, determining the exact levels to add size, and managing position size based on a customized probability indicator.
The benefit of the Binary Strategy is that it utilizes proper position sizing based on the probability of market reversal in a favorable direction. The research paper applied a pure mathematical model and scaling law, whereas the Binary Strategy incorporates two of the most popular indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index) and SMA (Simple Moving Average). While there may be some modifications to its probability indicator, the core idea remains unchanged.
Let's take a look at how the Binary Strategy has performed on historical data.

If you're wondering which research paper I was referring to, it is "The Alpha Engine: Designing an Automated Trading Algorithm" by Anton Golub, James B. Glattfelder, and Richard B. Olsen. Surprisingly, almost no one is discussing this strategy online.
Perhaps it’s because the concept is still relatively new, highly complex, and nearly impossible to implement without automation—similar to the SMC (Smart Money Concepts) strategy. This is why the Binary Strategy stands out as the first and only approach attempting to incorporate this research as one of its core principles.
From my findings, I have demonstrated that this strategy could potentially surpass the SMC strategy in both win rate and automation capabilities.

Share it to your friend and relatives, so they have more insights about trading that it doesn't always have to be about "prediction" but "risk management".

Disclaimer: The information shared above is based on personal experience and observations. It is not intended as financial advice or as a sole basis for making trading decisions. The market is highly unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research, consider multiple factors, and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and it is essential to manage risk appropriately to avoid significant losses.

#bitcoin #trading #futures #crypto #investing #ict #strategy #forex

Easiest investing strategy my mentor ever told me is:
Buy Bitcoin Every Month no matter how expensive it is (Without looking at the price) consistently, it's like the most peaceful saving method yet more likely to be profitable than 90% trader out there trying to catch top and bottom, like this article if you agree!

My mentor only told me to buy Bitcoin every month. But he did not specify in detail (maybe for easier understanding purpose) when exactly i should buy it. I would like to share you my experiment that is also easy to do and of course with base concept that my mentor taught me. The experiment is as following:

Mentor's Method:
Given $1000 to invest, he immediately invests the money at the first day of the month, no matter how much it is, just buy it.
My Method:
I will wait for price to go lower during that month and buy it when it is cheap. Now, by definition cheap in this experiment is when the price hits the Moving Average (100) in hourly timeframe, i will buy at the moving average, in reality this is possible to do by setting limit order every day (Because moving average always change every day). If price never hits the moving average during 1 month period, then i will save it for the next month and will spend $2000 at once when price hits it (this repeats if price still not hit it).

We will pick top 3 coins in market cap (BTC, ETH, XRP) as investment selection. Now, which do you think will have the better result? Let's see the result.

Surprisingly, my mentor's method wins in all of the market, even without looking at discount before buying it. BUT!!! Even with only using 1 year period, both methods still generate positive return in all of the market, you can imagine if this method is implemented just in the past 2, 3, or even 4 years... Literally just by buying them every month and there is no emotion or mental stress being involved because by definition of over 90% of traders are unprofitable that means they lose money in the market annually, monthly, or even daily.

Disclaimer: The information shared above is based on personal experience and observations. It is not intended as financial advice or as a sole basis for making trading decisions. The market is highly unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research, consider multiple factors, and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and it is essential to manage risk appropriately to avoid significant losses.

Previous Insight Analysis
Based on previous monthly insight which was on December 16th 2024, i expected price to go lower than 90k after price hit 90k, but then it went up to 108k before finally making a new low at 88.9k. Let's dive deeper.

Monthly Price Analysis
Based on monthly timeframe, the december closing is a doji candle and closed below november's high, indicating lower bullish momentum. Take a look at picture below.

This month, price made a new high at $102.762 which surprisingly was the middle range of December's high - December's open before it made a new low below $90.000. After price made a new low at 88.9k, it immediately recovered to 90k and today is trading at $97k. As expected in the previous insight, price went down to immediately hit monthly gap.
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
Based on weekly timeframe, price also hit weekly gap.

Daily Timeframe Analysis

Based on daily timeframe, there was no fair value gap being hit except sell-side liquidity raids and close above them.

Personal Insight
Monthly and weekly gap hit, daily liqudity raids, i expect a lower timeframe manipulation within 102k and 90k range before it moves toward $115k. Maybe something like this.

Here i will show you how to make an easy scalping setup above 50% winrate and above 1 RR (Positive Overall Return) Up To 5 RR.

Disclaimer: The information shared here is based on personal experience and observations. It is not intended as financial advice or as a sole basis for making trading decisions. The market is highly unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research, consider multiple factors, and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and it is essential to manage risk appropriately to avoid significant losses.

There are two ways how you can do it, i personally prefer the second way for better winrate and higher RR. Make sure you understand this first.

- Bullish Fair Value Gap is marked from High of the First candle to Low of the Third candle. While Bearish Fair Value Gap is marked from Low of the First candle to High of the Third candle.
- First candle is marked as Number 1 while Third candle is marked as Number 3. Nomatter if it is Bullish or Bearish Fair Value Gap.
- Unmitigated Fair Value Gap in this strategy basically means price has Never touch the zone.
- Unmitigated Order Block in this strategy basically means price has Never touch the zone.

1. Single Timeframe
Market is fractal, you can use any timeframe. This time we will use 1 minute timeframe. First you need to find Fair Value Gap at the same market direction. If you see market is bullish (3 Higher highs) in 1 minute timeframe, then you want to find bullish fair value gap, this is your potential entry level. Now this is very important, you must point the closest and furthest point of your fair value gap. With Long Setup provided by trading view. Make sure you understand this first.

Use the long setup and set the entry at number 3 and number 1 as stop loss in your bullish fair value gap, now the target profit. When price is approaching your entry level, you must immediately find the nearest bearish fair value gap number 3 as your first target. Notice how much RR you get, if it is less than 1 RR, it is not a good setup. If you get above 1 RR, then let's find the max target.

Your max TP is at the unmitigated order block or you can easily find it as the last bullish candle after your max target. Specifically, you need to target the low candle of the bullish ob. Because it is very strong point to make a reversal.

Don't look for first or max target above 5 RR because the stop loss is usually pretty wide. I am personally risking 2-5% per setup, 50% TP as my first target if it is above 2 RR, and leave the rest at max TP, but if below 2 RR, i don't set partial TP. I recommend you to focus only on long setup to prevent overtrading and to grow your understanding about which fair value gaps are more valid when you see them layered. Using fibonacci and find discounted level of FVG is a wise choice. Short setup also work the same, but you should get used to the long setup first.

2. Multi Timeframe
This one is a bit more complicated. There are some combinations required to actually get a valid setup in this strategy. I usually use the following set of timeframe.

1. Daily, 4h, 2h, 1h
2. 4h, 1h, 30m, 15m
3. 1h, 30m, 15m, 5m
4. 15m, 5m, 3m
5. 5m, 3m, 1m

For scalping, we can use number 4 or 5. In this example, i will use number 5.

First, we want to find unmitigated fair value gap in the highest timeframe in the set, in this example 5 minute, then mark the equilibrium (50% level) of the FVG. Then, go to lower timeframe and find another unmitigated fair value gap around this area. If you don't find any unmitigated fair value gaps (3m, or 1m in this example), then it is not a good setup. You want to find fair value gaps in multi timeframe.

If you find unmitigated fvg, then set number 3 as entry. For the stop loss, you should know whether the fvg in lower timeframe you just found is in the premium or discount zone of the fvg in highest timeframe. Premium basically means above 50% and discount below 50%. If it is in the premium, then set your stop loss slightly below the equilibrium. If it is in discount, then set your stop loss slightly below the number 1.

For target is just the same as in the first strategy. Find unmitigated fair value gap, measure RR above 3. Max tp at order block.

You can backtest manually two of these strategies and find a good parameter combinations that you like, you can even try using the OB as your entry instead of only your target. There are many combinations even with the money management strategy to find the most optimal fixed strategy that you can adopt for yourself. That's why i really encourage you to do your own research and backtest without using your capital until you have proven that your own strategy is profitable. Also refer to my previous article about "Thoughts That ALL Traders MUST Have: The Hidden Battle in Every Trade" where i explain in depth about the Smart Money Concept and its components.

Scalping can be very frustating and not many traders do it because of volatility. The key in this setup is trading in internal range. Although there are some other trading models i will share to you in the future articles such as trading with OB, FVG, and side Liquidity as target.

⌛1 Minute Timeframe Analysis By Setup

Disclaimer: The information shared here is based on personal experience and observations. It is not intended as financial advice or as a sole basis for making trading decisions. The market is highly unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research, consider multiple factors, and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and it is essential to manage risk appropriately to avoid significant losses.

Would you take this setup? Take a look at the last two candles, forming bullish engulfing, then a bullish marubozu. Now let's see the result.

When it hits the entry, it forms three white soldiers, very common bullish patterns and reversal signal. But why it does not work? I will not trick you with any external timeframes for analysis, we will just use 1minute timeframe alone.
Three lower lows indicate a bearish trend at the moment. The last low was created during a strong bearish move, which is evident from the consecutive red candles. The price stopped making new lows and began to rise. It consolidated briefly at this level, but the selling side is still dominating. The price moved so quickly that it created several fair value gaps and order blocks.
As a short trader, you want to identify where the majority of supply resides. The nearest but strongest level for a short trade is at the last lower high, which combines fair value gaps with order blocks. You always want to ride the wave where the majority of money is going, aiming for the furthest possible level.
The price has indeed hit the target level, but when you know it may go even further, it's better to think, "It doesn't matter. I got what I wanted, and it was calculated. With a solid set of rules, I can find this pattern many times, whenever it appears."
Please refer to my previous article titled as "Thoughts That ALL Traders MUST Have: The Hidden Battle in Every Trade". I shared a lot of things about Smart Money Concept deeper about Fair Value Gap, Order Blocks, and Liquidity.

As a SMC trader, this is how i think when looking at the chart:

1. Psychological level
This is where the price has the most liquidity and volatility. Limit and target hits quickly. This is why i love it.

2. Consolidation (Support, Resistance, Order Blocks)
I love to imagine the bid and ask battle as a key factor in market debates, with people often discussing whether a level is good for buying or selling. For example, traders might say, "I've made enough profit, I'll sell some/all," or "I think it's confirmed to go even higher, I'm buying now/buying more." However, not many understand why order blocks or support/resistance levels work as price bounce points.
Consolidation is historical; you can't claim price is consolidating if it isn't. This is a crucial point. When you observe the history of a "battle" that occurred at a certain price range, you can actually trace that event back to those bouncing levels (order blocks and support/resistance) on higher timeframes.
When you mark order blocks, support, or resistance, you're identifying ranges of consolidation on lower timeframes. As a retail trader, I approach this by setting certain bounce criteria to determine my support and resistance levels: the more times a level has bounced, the more I trust it.
As a Smart Money Concept (SMC) trader, the longer the bid and ask battle has occurred at a particular level in the past, and the more often price revisits that level, the more traders have anticipated buying there. If buyers eventually win the "war," they will sweep away all the sellers, pushing the price higher than just that level. However, at some point, the buyers become exhausted, and some of their previous allies may turn against them—these are the "undead" sellers. With external factors joining the fray, the buyers are swept away rapidly, forming a strong order block and creating a fair value gap. The price then drops significantly below the range, looking for new buyers to "kill" in the next cycle.

3. Fair Value Gap
Price move so fast that it leaves a lot of limit orders behind. "It has to be filled" some people said. No, market does not care about your opinion. Price goes to wherever it wants driven by the majority of money. I would say fair value gap is relative, what i see in 4h timeframe can't be seen in 1h timeframe. It's about looking for a reason or answer why things don't happen as you expect. If i see gap in 5m timeframe, it is less likely to be filled if 1m timeframe has no gap. This is the key statement "When price slowly push price only in 1 direction in lower timeframe, it is considered fast in higher timeframe, therefore forming fair value gap". Fair value gap with this criteria is high likely to be filled in "brutal" way.

What you see in the picture above is fair value gaps that get "brutally" mitigated. Dashed line with orange color means it is fully mitigated (the lowest point of fair value gap), while dashed line with white color means it is partially mitigated (Price once hit only at a few portion of that fair value gap. If you see carefully, there are 3 old fair value gaps that got mitigated in 15m timeframe during Bitcoin's wick at 90k. But why didn't it bounce at the fair value gaps? Why did it go far deeper below the fair value gaps? And why it suddenly bounces back to 100k in no time? Are you wondering why? Let's go to liquidity

4. Liquidity
To sum it all up, everything is about supply and demand, the key point of liquidity.
Remember the consolidation we were talking about where bid and ask war happen at certain level? This creates liquidity at those levels. Majority of buy and sell orders are always in consolidation (support / resistance) level. Now, i like to put it this way to keep it simple:

Simple Simulation of Selling a Market Order:
Imagine you are a very rich person and you want to execute a sell market order for 100 lots at the current Bitcoin price of $100k, but there are buy orders only at the following levels:
$95k: 30 lots$92k: 20 lots$90k: 50 lots
Execution Steps:
Sell Market Order at $100k:You place a market sell order for 100 lots at the current price of $100k.Sell Order Filling:Since you are selling, the order will match with the buy orders that are available. The available buy orders are at lower prices, so your sell orders will "eat" through the buy orders at progressively lower prices, causing the price to move down.First, the 30 lots at $95k will be filled.The price will drop to $95k, and there will be 70 lots remaining (100 - 30).Second, the 20 lots at $92k will be filled.The price will drop further to $92k, leaving 50 lots remaining (70 - 20).Third, the 50 lots at $90k will be filled.The price will drop further to $90k, and the sell order will be fully executed (50 - 50 = 0 lots).
Final Result:
The price moves from $100k to $90k as your sell market order consumes the available buy orders at lower prices.The final price after executing the order would be $90k.

Your question is insightful—it's not as complicated as it seems. The price should have bounced at those fair value gaps, but the limit orders weren’t enough to absorb all the massive sell orders. The sell orders were too large. But why did the price bounce at $90k and return to $100k? Let's go back to point number one: Psychological price levels. The remaining strong limit orders were there, which we can refer to as buy-side liquidity. However, keep in mind that this level isn’t the only one that could cause the price to bounce.
Why the Bounce at $90k and Return to $100k:
The Reduction of Massive Sell Orders:
The massive sell orders were mostly absorbed by the fair value gaps and minor support and resistance levels. If, for example, there had been no buy orders at $92k, the price would have likely dropped further below $90k until it found other buy orders large enough (such as 20 lots). This is why liquidity at different levels plays a crucial role in price movement.Massive Buy Orders at $90k:
At $90k, the sell orders were largely absorbed, and massive buy orders started to accumulate at that price. This can be seen as the opposite side of the market (buy-side liquidity) because most of the selling pressure had already been filled. This created a similar scenario to the one in the simulation above but on the buy side.
The Brutality of Mitigating Fair Value Gaps:
Now, to explain why mitigating the fair value gaps created by a lower timeframe, where price slowly moves in one direction, is so "brutal":
Let's visualize this with the chart or concept you're referring to.

Notice how price slowly move up then get wicked which is marked as orange circle. The faster it goes up, the bigger the wicks.

Now you see, mostly brutal wicks happen when bigger timeframe want to seek more liquidity. Always keep in mind that most of the orders were already filled in previous levels (Fair value gaps, Support, Resistance, Order Blocks). Here is the explanation:

Bid and ask "battle" did not take place at fixed level long enough. Consolidation is very crucial to happen, it reflects historical event where most people would buy and sell, so it would trigger people to buy or sell at those levels in the future. But in this scenario, buyers and sellers almost equal but buyers still dominate, so it pushes the price higher slowly in this timeframe. The less consolidation it has, the less buyer group at that level, so the buy orders are highly spreaded. Imagine in the market orders simulation i provided, if the buy lot only has 5 lots every $1k below like this:

Current price 100k. Sell market order 100 lots.
Buy at 99k: 5 lots
Buy at 98k: 5 lots
Buy at 97k: 5 lots
and so on

Then the price will end up at 80k (100k - 100 / 5* 1k), but if the consolidation was long enough, it can attract more buyers:

Buy at 99k: 20 lots
Buy at 98k: 10 lots
Buy at 97k: 30 lots
Buy at 96k: 50 lots
Buy at 95k: 100 lots

Then price will stop at 96k.

Now you see the picture above, a big fair value gaps created in daily timeframe, meaning buyers dominated the market, but it did not get filled yet. Now take a look what happens at lower timeframe.

In lower timeframes, the price tends to have fewer unmitigated fair value gaps because it has likely already touched and mitigated most of these gaps. This brings us back to point number 3: it doesn't have to be filled, and price just follows the majority of market participants.
Now, if the market ever wants to mitigate a daily fair value gap, consider number 2: look at how long the consolidation took place. If the consolidation period wasn’t long enough, the price is less likely to bounce at that level. But if the consolidation lasted long enough, the price is more likely to bounce at that level.
Think of all of this as number 4, liquidity. And always remember, this is about probability. You can't expect 100% certainty in market movements. Trying to predict market bounces with absolute certainty is like me trying to predict whether you'd want to sell BTC at $100k for 100 lots. I don't even know you. At the same time, I'm trying to predict if you will sell 100 lots and whether there will be enough buy orders to stop your sell order at the exact price I want. This is simply impossible.
At this point, after reading this, I hope you have a deeper understanding of market behavior and that you can apply this mindset when analyzing charts. Blind bias will only destroy your trading. Always have a reason for why things might go wrong, so you don’t make unrealistic emotional decisions that can blow your account.
Mastering and integrating these concepts will forever change the way you perceive price movements on a chart.
This principle applies across all timeframes—markets are indeed fractal. And when it comes to cryptocurrency, I personally believe that your timezone or the latest news doesn’t matter as much as people think. For example, predicting price movements based on my setup is like trying to predict the outcome of upcoming CPI news. We’ll discuss this further another time. Follow for more insights!

#Smartmoney #PriceAction

💲Where will the price of bitcoin go? Let's break it down.

If we take the highest closing candle and the lowest closing candle before a breakout as the starting point of fibonacci level, we can see bitcoin is currently struggling at fibonacci extension level 2 for over two weeks. It is also at the psychology number $100.000. Sure, it broke above that number because the greed index was very high at that point. I think that also caused the price to liquidate over 1 billion dollars after bitcoin wicked to 90k few days ago.

Historically, Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high of 73k after mitigating the fair value gap. This was confirmed by a large green candle closing above that level in November. Note that this large candle has a strong potential for forming a new fair value gap.

Today, F&G Index is not relatively in high greed level, means that it increases the chance of price to hit above the current level at $100.000.

Based on the information above, here's a brief summary for the monthly timeframe:
We are awaiting this month's candle close. If it fails to close significantly above the previous candle's high or if it closes as a red candle signaling rejection, it is highly likely that the fair value gap will be mitigated first before price moves above that level. If the candle closes above that level, we could see new levels potentially around $128k and $150k.