Yarc

🔔 MARKET UPDATE 🔔

🎯 Forex majors saw mixed movements with the Euro facing headwinds from central bank speculation while the US Dollar firmed.

🇪🇺 EURUSD traded within a narrow range, hovering around 1.1853-1.1855 after a report on ECB President Lagarde's potential early departure caused some initial weakening.

🍫 Gold prices rose slightly, with spot gold gaining to $5,019.32 per troy ounce, following a rally in the previous session.

📈 US equities closed higher, as the S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 6,881.31 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.78% to 22,753.63 points.

🤖 Technology stocks led the gains, notably Nvidia, which climbed 1.6% after Meta Platforms announced a major partnership to use its chips for AI data centers.

🏛 Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting revealed that policymakers were generally aligned on holding rates, yet expressed a split view on the future path, with some open to hikes if inflation persists and others to cuts if inflation declines.

🇪🇺 A report suggesting ECB President Christine Lagarde might step down early introduced uncertainty, contributing to a weaker Euro.

🇨🇳 China's economy grew by 5% in 2025, with a projected 4.5% growth in 2026, though domestic demand remains subdued due to the property slump and a weak social safety net.

🛢 OPEC+ members have reaffirmed their decision to pause oil production increases for February and March 2026, citing seasonal demand and a cautious approach to market stability.

🗓 CALENDAR FOR TODAY
🟠🇳🇿 AUD - Employment Change - 03:30 GMT+3
🟠🇳🇿 AUD - Unemployment Rate - 03:30 GMT+3
🟠🇺🇸 USD - Unemployment Claims - 16:30 GMT+3

🔔 MARKET UPDATE 🔔

🇪🇺 EURUSD traded near 1.1846 as the euro hovered close to a four-year peak.

👑 Gold surged by approximately 1.0% to trade near $4,937 per ounce.

🛢 WTI Crude Oil rose to $62.50 per barrel, up 0.28% from the previous day, pausing recent losses as US-Iran talks showed progress on nuclear dispute principles. Brent Crude traded at $67.42 a barrel.

📊 The US500 (S&P 500) advanced to 6862 points, gaining 0.28% from the prior session, recovering from earlier weakness.

🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated the Euro area's inflation outlook is in a "good place", though cautioned against overreacting to short-term data. Eurozone industrial production fell 1.4% in December.

🤖 Artificial intelligence continues to drive market narratives; US corporate bond issuance is projected to rise nearly 12% in 2026 to fund AI projects. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated the central bank would likely hold rates steady, awaiting sustainable goods price inflation retreat.

🗓 CALENDAR FOR TODAY
🟠🇺🇸 USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes - 22:00 GMT+3

🔔 MARKET UPDATE 🔔

🇪🇺 EURUSD advanced to 1.1834 on February 4, marking a 0.13% increase from the prior session and a 0.96% gain over the past month.

🇦🇺 The Australian Dollar strengthened, pushing above 0.70 after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%.

🍫 Gold prices continued their rebound, trading around $5,080 per ounce, following a 6.8% surge in its latest swing.

🛢 Brent crude oil futures climbed to $67.80 per barrel, up 0.70% on February 4, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

📉 US equity markets showed mixed performance; the S&P 500 (US500) declined 0.8% to close near 6,918 on February 3, with tech stocks struggling significantly.

🇺🇸 The US partial government shutdown concluded early after congressional approval of $1.2 trillion in funding, easing market uncertainty.

🪖 Geopolitical tensions heightened as the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone and Iranian vessels harassed a US-flagged oil tanker, directly influencing energy markets.

🇪🇺 Eurozone banks unexpectedly tightened lending conditions to businesses in Q4 2025, a development attributed to concerns over the economic outlook and reduced risk tolerance.

🇨🇳 China's official January Manufacturing PMI, alongside services and construction activity, slipped back into contraction, signaling persistent weakness in domestic demand.

🗓 CALENDAR FOR TODAY
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 16:15 GMT+3
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - ISM Services PMI - 18:00 GMT+3

NEWS💥💥💥

💰 A Bitcoin-led selloff has erased $467.6B from the crypto market in under a week, with Bitcoin sliding to its lowest level since November 2024 amid a broad risk-off move.

🇺🇸 Thomas Barkin said last year’s Fed rate cuts helped support jobs and that policymakers are now focused on the “last mile” of bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve System’s target.

🥇 China’s four largest gold ETFs saw record outflows of ~6.8B yuan ($980M) in a single day as gold’s sharp pullback from record highs shook investor confidence.

💲 UBS beat Q4 profit estimates with $1.2B in net income and announced a $3B share buyback for 2026, signaling potential upside while reaffirming an 18% CET1 return target for 2028.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 04.02.2026

🇺🇸 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 16:15 GMT+3
🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI – 18:00 GMT+3

Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC are buying again. Aggressively 😮

Back in November 2024, these whales flipped to heavy selling. That distribution trend ran for months. Around mid-November 2025, it reversed, and net inflows turned positive.

🕯 Over the last few weeks, as BTC slid toward 75k and weaker hands capitulated, these large holders stepped up even more. This is steady accumulation into fear.

It’s not a perfect bottom signal. It never is. But it’s a solid sign that long-term positions are being built here, even if price still has room to go lower.

It feels foolish to short the market here. Going all-in on longs is also a bad idea while the trend is still pointing downwards. However, as I've said before, steadily buying spot makes sense, and that's what I'm doing 🪙

₿📉BlackRock today is again actively transferring BTC to exchanges, various monitoring services report — clients are selling BTC ETF again

#BlackRock #Bitcoin #ETF

🗓 Economic Calendar for the Week

🟢 Tuesday, February 03th:
🇦🇺 AUD - Cash Rate - 06:30 GMT+3
🇦🇺 AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement - 06:30 GMT+3
🇦🇺 AUD - RBA Rate Statement - 06:30 GMT+3
🇦🇺 AUD - RBA Press Conference - 07:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - JOLTS Job Openings - 18:00 GMT+3

🟢 Wednesday, February 04th:
🇳🇿 NZD - Employment Change q/q - 00:45 GMT+3
🇳🇿 NZD - Unemployment Rate - 00:45 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - 16:15 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - ISM Services PMI - 18:00 GMT+3

🟢 Thursday, February 05h:
🇬🇧 GBP - BOE Monetary Policy Report - 15:00 GMT+3
🇬🇧 GBP - Monetary Policy Summary - 15:00 GMT+3
🇬🇧 GBP - MPC Official Bank Rate Votes - 15:00 GMT+3
🇬🇧 GBP - Official Bank Rate - 15:00 GMT+3
🇬🇧 GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks - 15:30 GMT+3
🇪🇺 EUR - Main Refinancing Rate - 16:15 GMT+3
🇪🇺 EUR - Monetary Policy Statement - 16:15 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - Unemployment Claims - 16:30 GMT+3
🇪🇺 EUR - ECB Press Conference - 16:45 GMT+3
🇨🇦 CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks - 20:25 GMT+3

🟢 Friday, January 30th:
🇦🇺 AUD -RBA Gov Bullock Speaks - 01:30 GMT+3
🇨🇦 CAD - Employment Change - 16:30 GMT+3
🇨🇦 CAD - Unemployment Rate - 16:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 16:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - Non-Farm Employment Change - 16:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - Unemployment Rate - 16:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 18:00 GMT+3
🇺🇸 USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 18:00 GMT+3

💲 DXY Analysis

DXY is showing signs of recovery. The price has once again returned to test the key resistance level at 97.20.

⬆️ If the price holds above this resistance level, a move higher toward 97.87 is likely, with the goal of closing the GAP and partially filling the FVG.

⬇️ However, if the resistance level is not broken, the price may continue to decline toward the 96.62 level.

🔔 MARKET UPDATE 🔔

🇺🇸 Forex markets saw the U.S. Dollar continue its multi-month weakening trend, with EURUSD continuing its upward trend, supported by persistent dollar weakness.

⚱️ Gold prices plummeted, with spot gold recorded at $4,535.8 per ounce as of 07:00 GMT, marking a 6.7% drop from Friday's close. This extended the rout after a 9.8% fall on Friday, driven by increased CME margin requirements.

📊 U.S. equity futures opened lower, as a weekend slide in Bitcoin and Friday's precious metals sell-off weighed on sentiment.

🏥 U.S. healthcare insurers experienced steep declines after the government proposed a minimal 0.09% increase in 2027 reimbursement rates for private insurance plans, a sharp contrast to the 5.06% increase for 2026, severely impacting profitability.

🇪🇺 The Euro's appreciation raised concerns for European exporters, with ECB officials highlighting potential complexities for monetary policy if the currency continues its upward trend, noting its appreciation against the U.S. Dollar over the past year.

🗓 CALENDAR FOR TODAY
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI - 18:00 GMT+3

🔔 MARKET UPDATE 🔔

🇪🇺 EURUSD rose to 1.1985 today, up 0.26% from the previous session, with ECB officials expressing concern over euro strength potentially leading to further rate cuts.

🇬🇧 GBPUSD fell to 1.3757 yesterday, down 0.65%, after trading below 1.39000 in the Asian session.

🍫 Gold prices surged to a new all-time high, with futures opening at $5,295.59 per troy ounce yesterday, a 3.42% increase.

🛢 Oil markets saw mixed trading, with Brent crude rose to $67.69, a 1.65% increase and WTI crude rising to $62.43 per barrel amid US supply disruptions from a winter storm.

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 inched down less than 0.1% to 6,978.03, while the DJI rose by 12.19 points, or 0.02%, to 49,015.60, as US stocks held near all-time highs.

😇 The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% yesterday, noting solid economic expansion, low job gains, and stabilizing unemployment, with inflation remaining elevated.

🏦 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a strong-dollar policy, dampening expectations for intervention in currency markets.

💼 Corporate earnings showed mixed results, with UnitedHealth Group plunging 19.6% after lagging revenue estimates, while General Motors rose 8.7% on stronger-than-expected earnings.

⚠️ OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current production pause, contributing to ongoing supply uncertainty alongside disruptions from a Kazakhstan oilfield setback.

🗓 CALENDAR FOR TODAY
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - Unemployment Claims - 16:30 GMT+3

🔔 MARKET UPDATE 🔔

🌍 Global markets experienced a mixed session, with strong divergence between tech-led rallies and sector-specific downturns.

📈 S&P 500 achieved a new all-time high, closing up 0.41% at 6,978.58, driven by robust performance in tech and AI-related stocks.

🚀 NASDAQ Composite surged 0.91% to 23,817.10, benefiting from investor optimism surrounding upcoming "Magnificent Seven" earnings reports and continued AI infrastructure expansion.

🇪🇺 EURUSD saw a slight dip, falling to 1.1995 on January 28, down 0.37%, following strength seen on January 27 due to broad USD weakness and the EU-India trade deal.

🇬🇧 GBPUSD climbed to fresh four-month highs, trading above 1.3680, as the US Dollar Index plunged to a four-year low.

🥇 Gold futures were down 0.21% on January 27, opening at $5,111.60 and closing January 26 at $5,122.30.

😇 The US Federal Reserve commenced its first policy meeting of 2026, with market participants keenly awaiting Chair J. Powell's remarks for clues on the future rate path.

🇪🇺 The European Union and India formally signed a landmark free trade agreement, dubbed the "Mother Of All Deals," expected to double EU goods exports to India by 2032.

📉 US Consumer Confidence plummeted by 9.7 points to 84.5 in January 2026, hitting its lowest level since 2014 and signaling a sharp erosion in consumer optimism.

🗓 CALENDAR FOR TODAY
🟠 🇦🇺 AUD - CPI m/me - 03:30 GMT+3
🟠 🇦🇺 AUD - CPI y/y - 03:30 GMT+3
🟠 🇦🇺 AUD - Trimmed Mean CPI m/m - 03:30 GMT+3
🟠 🇨🇦 СAD - BOC Monetary Policy Report - 17:45 GMT+3
🟠 🇨🇦 СAD - BOC Rate Statement - 17:45 GMT+3
🟠 🇨🇦 СAD - Overnight Rate - 17:45 GMT+3
🟠 🇨🇦 СAD - BOC Press Conference - 18:30 GMT+3
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - Federal Funds Rate - 22:00 GMT+3
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - FOMC Statement - 22:00 GMT+3
🟠 🇺🇸 USD - FOMC Press Conference - 22:30 GMT+3

NEWS💥💥💥

🥇Gold hit a record above $5,200—up over 20% YTD—as dollar weakness and policy uncertainty under Donald Trump accelerated the flight from currencies and bonds into safe havens.

🤔 Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods to 25% from 15%, targeting autos, lumber and pharmaceuticals over delays in ratifying last year’s trade deal.

🏬 Amazon sent a premature internal email about “Project Dawn” layoffs—later canceled—spooking workers already bracing for potentially thousands of job cuts after 14,000 roles were eliminated in October.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 28.01.2026

🇨🇦 BOC Monetary Policy Report – 17:45 GMT+3
🇨🇦 BOC Rate Statement – 17:45 GMT+3
🇨🇦 Overnight Rate – 17:45 GMT+3
🇨🇦 BOC Press Conference – 18:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 Federal Funds Rate – 22:00 GMT+3
🇺🇸 FOMC Statement – 22:00 GMT+3
🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference – 22:30 GMT+3

🇺🇸BTC hashrate plunged 40% in 2 days due to a winter storm in the US that hit miners

NEWS💥💥💥

🥇Gold held above $5,000—up ~17% YTD—as dollar weakness and geopolitical risk under Donald Trump accelerated the debasement trade away from currencies and bonds.

🤝 Narendra Modi said India and the European Union have agreed a free trade pact after nearly 20 years of talks, a deal that could lift bilateral trade beyond $136B and boost India’s exports by about $50B by 2031.

🥈 Silver’s surge—up ~50% YTD after doubling in 2025—is being driven by record physical demand colliding with heavy speculation in a thin, illiquid market, amplifying extreme price swings.

🇯🇵 Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi faces a pre-election bind as moves to cap bond yields risk weakening the yen and stoking inflation, while FX support could hit stocks, leaving few clean options for the Bank of Japan.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 27.01.2026

🇺🇸 President Trump Speaks – 22:00 GMT+3

How to Measure Asset Prices in Other Assets 🔍

💵 Most prices are quoted in USD by default. Stocks, metals, and crypto are usually discussed in dollar terms because it is familiar and liquid.

⚖️ Measuring one asset in units of another helps compare strength directly. It shows which asset is gaining purchasing power versus the other. This is useful for spotting underperformance, relative trends, and potential pair trades.

To do this, go to TradingView. In the search field for tickers, type the trading pair of the asset you want to measure, then add a "/", then the trading pair of the asset you want to measure it against. For both sides just use USD pairs.

👉 For example, to measure Bitcoin in gold, use BTCUSD/XAUUSD. This expresses Bitcoin’s price in ounces of gold. The chart shows whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming gold over time. To measure Ethereum in BTC use ETHUSD/BTCUSD. And so on...

Check the attached chart. Bitcoin priced in gold is down about 51% since August 2025. That means gold gained purchasing power relative to Bitcoin over that period. Turns out a: long gold + short Bitcoin, was a perfect pair trade.

🤔 This method is commonly used to track assets priced in gold or BTC. It's often used to compare altcoins versus BTC or ETH. It shifts the focus from absolute price to relative performance.

📌 Save for later

NEWS💥💥💥

🇯🇵 Japan’s bond rout has pushed long yields above 4%, erasing ~$41B and risking a ~$7T global shock as capital may repatriate ahead of PM Sanae Takaichi’s snap election and Bank of Japan policy shifts.

🥇 Gold blasted past $5,000 an ounce—up over 17% YTD—as dollar weakness and geopolitical shocks under Donald Trump drove investors out of bonds and currencies into safe havens.

🚗Volkswagen (#VOW) may scrap plans for a US Audi plant unless auto tariffs are cut, after levies cost the group €2.1B ($2.5B) in the first nine months of 2025, CEO Oliver Blume said.

🛢According to BloombergNEF, the global oil market will see a supply surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day in Q1 2026.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 26.01.2026

🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders m/m - 16:30 GMT+3

NEWS💥💥💥

🍫 Gold climbed toward $5,000—up ~15% YTD—as a weaker dollar and geopolitical risk, including pressure on the Federal Reserve System, pushed investors into safe havens.

💰 Bitcoin funds saw ~$700M in outflows—the biggest in nearly two months—as ETFs shed exposure and BTC hovered near $90,000, leaving prices flat for the year despite a broader risk-asset rebound.

🖥 #INTEL shares sank up to 14% after warning of low manufacturing yields and weak guidance, forecasting Q1 revenue of $11.7–$12.7B and break-even EPS versus expectations for ~$12.6B and an $0.08 profit.

🇯🇵 Citadel CEO Kenneth Griffin warned at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Japanese bond yields approaching 5% are increasing stress on US Treasuries

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 23.01.2026

🇪🇺 German Flash Manufacturing PMI – 11:30 GMT+3
🇪🇺 German Flash Services PMI – 11:30 GMT+3
🇬🇧 Flash Manufacturing PMI – 12:30 GMT+3
🇬🇧 Flash Services PMI – 12:30 GMT+3
🇺🇸 Flash Manufacturing PMI – 17:45 GMT+3
🇺🇸 Flash Services PMI – 17:45 GMT+3

Useful insight? Hit ❤️

NEWS💥💥💥

🤔 Donald Trump shelved planned 10%–25% tariffs on European goods after citing a Greenland “framework” deal, triggering a relief rally in US stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar.

🇯🇵 About 44% of Japanese firms now see rising rates as a net negative—up ~7 points since 2024—complicating normalization for the Bank of Japan as borrowing costs hit a three-decade high.

⛽️ China’s Russian LNG imports hit a record 1.9 million tons in December—more than double ship-tracking estimates—pointing to stronger-than-expected demand despite an 11% drop in total LNG imports last year.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 22.01.2026

🇺🇸 Final GDP q/q - 16:30 GMT+3;
🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - 16:30 GMT+3;
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index m/m - 18:00 GMT+3;

NEWS💥💥💥

🤔 Trump’s Greenland threat is jolting markets as Donald Trump targets 6 of 27 European Union states with tariffs, sparking a global equity selloff and bond-market stress.

🥇 Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 to ~$88,900 as a global risk selloff driven by tariff threats from Donald Trump hit equities, bonds (+25 bps on long-dated Japan), and crypto stocks.

📱 Netflix will raise content spending ~10% in 2026 (from ~$18B), take ~$275M in deal costs, and guide to lower near-term EPS despite targeting up to 14% revenue growth.

👁️ Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang plans a China visit as the firm seeks to reopen a multibillion-dollar AI-chip market after the US cleared H200 sales, despite 25% tariffs and rising congressional scrutiny.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 21.01.2026

🇺🇸 President Trump Speaks – 16:30 GMT+3;

NEWS💥💥💥

🌍 At World Economic Forum 2026 in Davos, Donald Trump’s Greenland push, tariff threats of up to 200%, and a proposed $1 billion “Board of Peace” are dominating day 2 of talks.

🇺🇸 US Treasuries slid, with the 30-year yield up 6 bps to ~4.91%, as Donald Trump’s Greenland tariff threats fueled inflation fears and sparked a global bond selloff.

🥇 Gold jumped to a record ~$4,700/oz as dispute-fueled US-Europe trade-war fears and safe-haven buying.

⚫️ BlackRock won investor approval to extend its Asia private credit fund by 1 year, allowing up to $135 million in new investments amid a sluggish regional market.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 20.01.2026

🇬🇧 BOE Gov Bailey Speaks - 12:45 GMT+3

NEWS💥💥💥

⚡️ The European Union may retaliate with tariffs on €93 billion ($108 billion) of US goods if Donald Trump imposes 10%–25% duties that could cut EU exports by up to 50%.

🥇 Gold jumped to about $4,670/oz and silver to $93/oz as Donald Trump threatened 10%–25% tariffs, stoking safe-haven demand amid a looming US-EU trade clash.

🇨🇳 China hit 5% growth in 2025, but momentum faded as Q4 GDP slowed to 4.5%, investment fell 3.8%, and net exports contributed about 33% of growth amid weak demand.

🍎Apple Inc. retook the top spot in China as iPhone shipments surged 28%, lifting its share to about 20% despite a 1.6% market decline.

#MarketNews

📆 CALENDAR FOR TODAY - 19.01.2026

🇨🇦 CPI m/m - 16:30 GMT+3;
🇨🇦 Median CPI y/y - 16:30 GMT+3;
🇨🇦 Trimmed CPI y/y - 16:30 GMT+3;