Jat Vishal

Let’s be honest…
If you’ve been watching Bitcoin recently, you’ve probably felt confused.
One day it pumps, next day it dumps, then it goes sideways for weeks. And suddenly everyone on social media starts shouting “bull run incoming”… but nothing really happens.
So the real question is:
➡️ When will the real Bitcoin bull run start?
Not hype. Not influencer predictions. Real data.
➡️ Bull Runs Don’t Start With Excitement… They Start With Boredom
Most people expect bull runs to begin with big news and hype.
But Bitcoin usually does the opposite.
Bull markets often start when:
the market feels boring
volume is low
people lose interest
and retail thinks “crypto is dead”
That’s when smart money accumulates quietly.
Memorable truth:
Bitcoin rewards patience before it rewards bravery.
➡️ The Halving Pattern: Why Timing Matters
The halving is important, but here’s the mistake beginners make:
They think halving = instant pump.
Historically, Bitcoin’s biggest bull phase usually begins 6 to 18 months after the halving.
That’s why the strongest probability window for the next major run looks like:
⏳ Late 2025 to Mid 2026
Not guaranteed, but it matches the cycle timing.
➡️ Hidden Insight: Liquidity Is the Real Fuel
Here’s what most people miss:
Bitcoin doesn’t pump just because of hype.
It pumps when money flows into risk assets.
That’s why global liquidity (interest rates, money supply, macro risk-on sentiment) matters more than people realize.
Simple line to remember:
Halving is the match. Liquidity is the gasoline.
➡️ ETFs Changed the Game
This cycle feels different because institutions are now involved heavily through Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
That means demand can build quietly, without retail hype.
So the bull run might not “feel” obvious in the beginning… but once it starts, it could become powerful.
Truth:
Retail creates hype. Institutions create trends.
➡️ The Bull Trap Phase (Where Most People Lose)
Before every real bull run, Bitcoin often creates a trap:
it breaks resistance
people buy aggressively
then it dumps hard
retail panic sells
and later Bitcoin pumps without them
This is why so many people miss the best part of the cycle.
Painful truth:
Most people don’t miss bull runs because they didn’t buy.
They miss them because they sold too early.
✅ The 3-Confirmation Bull Run Framework
If you want a clean way to spot a real bull run, watch these 3 signals:
1️⃣ Price Confirmation
Bitcoin breaks major resistance and holds above it for weeks.
2️⃣ Liquidity Confirmation
Markets shift risk-on (rate cuts expected, money supply expands).
3️⃣ Demand Confirmation
ETF inflows stay strong + long-term holders stop selling.
When all 3 align, bull run probability increases massively.
➡️ 📅 So When Will the Bull Run Start?
Based on cycle timing + liquidity + institutional demand…
➡️ Late 2025 to Mid 2026 is the strongest window.
But the smarter answer is:
The bull run starts when Bitcoin breaks out and refuses to fall back down.
Not when influencers post targets.
➡️ Final Thought
Bitcoin bull runs don’t begin with fireworks.
They begin with silence… and boredom.
Mic drop line:
Bull markets start quietly.
By the time the crowd hears it… the opportunity is already expensive.
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